Insider: Teams Hurt By Lockout

ESPN Insider Info

On Monday we reviewed four factors that could prove to be more or less important than usual in an NBA season shortened by a work stoppage, and revealed which five teams stand to gain the most if those factors come into play.

Today, we’ll look at the other side of the coin: five teams that are more likely to suffer in the event of a lockout-shortened season. Above all, the math indicates that both performance level and consistency will have a significant impact on a lockout-shortened campaign.

Los Angeles Lakers

There’s been a lot of doom and gloom in L.A. following the Lakers’ being swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 playoffs. The reality is that sweeps can happen fairly frequently, even among competitive teams. Some quick math to make Lakers fans feel better: Even if two teams have equal abilities, a best-of-seven series will result in a sweep roughly 13 percent of the time. The bottom line is that the Lakers still have a team that’s capable of winning a championship.

However, it does look like that goal will be harder for L.A. to achieve after a work stoppage.

While a shortened season is likely to hurt the Lakers’ potent offense (the 1998-99 lockout-shortened campaign featured the worst 3-point shooting in the past 15 years and the slowest average pace in the past half-century), the knockout blow could be their striking inconsistency. Out of the elite teams with the eight highest win totals in the NBA last year, the Lakers had the highest variance in game-to-game results.

The stakes get much higher for L.A. if that up-and-down performance continues after the lockout. While an early hot streak could help the Lakers reclaim a No. 1 seed, it’s a very real possibility that they free fall in the playoff seedings, play a very strong team in the opening round and officially close the book on the Kobe Bryant era of dominance. Especially with a new coach on board, Lakers fans should all root for an 82-game season for their team’s true abilities to manifest themselves in their win-loss record.

Phoenix Suns

For years under Steve Nash, the Suns have possessed one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Unfortunately for Phoenix, we found that offensively minded teams suffered disproportionately during the last abbreviated season (see Lakers above).

In addition, a less-celebrated strength of the Suns over the past few years has been a top-notch training staff that prolonged Nash’s career and resurrected Shaquille O’Neal. In a shorter season, though, the competitive advantage of a training staff is probably diminished. Combined with the likely regression of their offense, a shortened season might douse the Suns’ hopes for a return to the playoffs.

Houston Rockets

The news isn’t all bad for Rockets fans. On the bright side, Houston was one of basketball’s unluckiest teams last year, losing over three games more than one would expect given their average margin of victory. So if their luck returns to the norm this season, as it should, Houston could be in a position to contend for a Western Conference playoff spot.

However, a shorter season works against Houston in two ways. First, Houston owned the league’s fourth-best offense last season, which is less likely to hold up during a shortened season. More detrimental, though, is the Rockets’ amazing consistency. They were the league’s most consistent team in 2010-11, and as we mentioned in Monday’s analysis, in a short season consistency is more of a curse than a blessing for borderline teams.

Mathematically, a short season actually makes it more likely that a less talented but streaky team like the Warriors or the Jazz will get lucky early on, go on a hot streak and steal a potential Rockets playoff spot.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets’ unique style of play last season resulted in them having both the highest-rated offense in the league and the least consistent performance game to game. While a shortened season does not bode well for their offensive talents, the high variance in performance means that Denver is more likely to be boom or bust in a short season. The Nuggets have a greater chance than other rivals of either placing near the top of the Western Conference or back in the pack.

Overall, though, the Nuggets appear to have more to lose from their inconsistency than they have to gain. Their upside is marginal; they could earn a higher playoff seed, but because of a likely offensive regression, a deep playoff run is less probable. Their downside is much more significant. A few bad shooting nights in a short season could mean that the Nuggets watch the playoffs from the sidelines.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Like all other teams on this list, Oklahoma City had a potent offense last year that was key to the young team’s success. That offense would likely suffer if the labor dispute costs them game and practice time.

Another big strength for the Thunder, however, has been their ability to avoid injury. Kevin Durant has missed just 14 games in his four-year career, and Russell Westbrook has played in all 246 possible games since being drafted. Whether by youth or by chance, the rock-solid reliability of the Thunder’s stars would not be as much of an advantage in a shorter season in which opponents are less likely to rest veteran stars as much.