Chad Ford’s Mock Draft 1.1

All year we have kept tabs on the stock of the Top 100 prospects. The list is a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player’s relative value in the draft.

A mock draft is a different animal altogether. In a mock draft, we don’t tell you where a player should go but rather what each team in the draft likely would do with its pick.

At this point, very little is set in stone. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next eight weeks.

We still don’t know which underclassmen will withdraw from the draft by the May 8 deadline. And we aren’t even sure of the draft order yet. We won’t know the results of the NBA draft lottery until May 17.

The process of team workouts has just started. Over the next few weeks, the Chicago NBA pre-draft combine, the adidas Eurocamp and hundreds of team workouts will dramatically alter the face of the draft.

Still, we have a pretty good feel for who’s going to be in and we do know the lottery odds, so it’s time for our first full mock draft of 2011. (If you want to check out what your team would do with the No. 1 pick, check out our Lottery Mock Draft Machine with more than 2,000 scenarios.)

But for now, here’s our best stab at a full first-round mock draft, after taking into account team needs.

Note: Kentucky’s Terrence Jones withdrew from the draft on May 7. He was listed as the 11th pick in the draft going to the Golden State Warriors. The Mock has been updated to reflect his withdrawal along with new information we’ve received since publishing the Mock on May 5.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota (25 percent chance of winning lottery)	Kyrie Irving	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-2 Weight: 180 pounds Age: 19 School: Duke

Analysis: Stop with the David Kahn-drafting-a-point-guard jokes and you’ll realize … sixth time is a charm. Yes, Kahn has drafted three point guards and signed another two via free agency in his two-year term. But to date, none of them has panned out.

Two of them — Ramon Sessions and Ty Lawson — were traded. Ricky Rubio is still hanging out in Spain with no definitive answer on when he’s coming to the NBA. Jonny Flynn has been a major disappointment, and Luke Ridnour is not the future of the franchise.

Irving, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for the young Wolves. He has the most potential of any of the guards Kahn has recruited. He also has a high basketball IQ, can shoot (something the Wolves really need) and is a high-character player (another thing they could use).

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Cleveland (19.9% chance of winning lottery)	Derrick Williams	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 241 Age: Turns 20 on May 25 School: Arizona

Analysis: Williams is an interesting fit for the Cavs. They’d prefer Irving. But if they can’t get him, Williams is the guy. If you project him as a small forward, he fits an immediate need. The Cavs still are trying to fill the huge hole left by LeBron James. Williams can’t fill it, but he’s a terrific talent.

If you project him as an undersized 4 in the mold of David West, he’s competing with J.J. Hickson (the Cavs’ only other young building block of note) for a spot in the starting lineup. That’s not ideal for a team that has major holes to fill, but the truth is Williams is the only other player on the Big Board worthy of a top-two pick.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Toronto (15.6% chance of winning lottery)	Enes Kanter	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 255 Age: Turns 19 on May 20 Country: Turkey

Analysis: Bryan Colangelo has a thing for international players. But that’s not the only reason we have Kanter going No. 3. Going into the season, a number of scouts considered him a potential No. 1 pick. Thanks to the NCAA, we never got to see whether he could earn it — but Kanter has a lot going for him.

He is tough, can play inside and out, rebounds the basketball and has a higher basketball IQ than most of the kids his age. He’s a bit undersized for a center, but his toughness in the paint will be a welcome contrast to Andrea Bargnani’s Charmin-soft game.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington (11.9% chance of winning lottery)	Jan Vesely	Position: PF Height: 6-11 Weight: 240 Age: 21 Country: Czech Republic

Analysis: The Wizards won the draft lottery last year and brought in a thoroughbred in John Wall. What they need is an athletic forward to run the floor with him. Most Euros wouldn’t come close to fitting that bill, but Vesely might be the exception. He’s terrific in transition and an explosive leaper — a rarity for Eastern European kids.

He’s been a starter in the Euroleague for the past few years, and while his numbers don’t necessarily wow you, his game looks like it will translate better at the next level. A bit of a risky pick, but after Irving and Williams are off the board, all the picks are risky.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Sacramento (7.6% chance of winning lottery)	Kemba Walker	Position: PG Height: 6-1 Weight: 172 Age: Turns 21 on May 8 School: UConn

Analysis: The Kings have finally come to two realizations in the past year. One, Tyreke Evans isn’t a point guard. Two, character and leadership matter. Enter Walker. Not only does he play the right position, but no one in college basketball showed more heart, leadership or a desire to win than Kemba this past season. He has his weaknesses, but he should give the Kings something they really haven’t had in a while — a winner.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Utah (via New Jersey) (7.5% chance of winning lottery)	Brandon Knight	Position: PG Height: 6-3 Weight: 185 Age: 18 School: Kentucky

Analysis: The Jazz acquired this pick in their February trade-deadline deal with the Nets. They lost All-Star point guard Deron Williams in the deal but picked up this pick, Derrick Favors and Devin Harris in return. The Jazz like Harris but see Knight as a potential franchise player down the road.

Knight’s freshman season was up and down, but he has a few qualities that make him a terrific fit in Utah. He is big, plays defense, shoots the ball well and is a great kid on and off the court. He should be a perfect fit with the Jazz.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Detroit (4.3% chance of winning lottery)	Bismack Biyombo	Position: PF Height: 6-9 Weight: 243 Age: 18 Country: Congo

Analysis: Joe Dumars began building the 2000 edition of the Bad Boys around an unheralded, undrafted big man named Ben Wallace a decade ago. Wallace was raw offensively, but his athleticism, length and aggressiveness on the defensive end set the tone for the Pistons for a decade.

The past few years, the Pistons have lost virtually all of that mojo. Biyombo might be the perfect remedy for what ails them. He has burst onto the scene and could be a risk. But it’s hard to find his combination of length, athleticism and motor at this point in the draft. He should be a perfect complement to the more offensive-oriented Greg Monroe on the Pistons’ front line.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Cleveland (via L.A. Clippers) (2.8% chance of winning lottery)	Jonas Valanciunas	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 230 Age: 19 Country: Lithuania

Analysis: The Cavs had a lot of luck with another Lithuanian big man a decade ago — Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Can lightning strike twice? Some scouts believe he’s the most talented international player in the draft. But questions about his contract situation in Europe combined with fears that he lacks the elite athleticism he needs to compete in the NBA lower his stock a bit. At this point in the draft, he’s worth the risk.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Charlotte (1.7% chance of winning lottery)	Kawhi Leonard	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 225 Age: 19 School: San Diego State

Analysis: The Bobcats are a mess. They have some talent. But they also have huge needs at every position on the floor. Leonard might be a bit of a reach this high, but his game reminds me a bit of a young Gerald Wallace.

He plays with a terrific combination of length, athleticism and motor. While he’s not as accomplished a ball handler, he’s a better rebounder and shooter than Wallace was at this age. The Bobcats certainly can use both his toughness and his versatility.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Milwaukee (1.1% chance of winning lottery)	Tristan Thompson	Position: PF Height: 6-8 Weight: 225 Age: 20 School: Texas

Analysis: The Bucks have two terrific building blocks in Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings — but after that, it’s mostly question marks. They traded last summer for Corey Maggette and signed John Salmons and Drew Gooden as free agents, and none of them really panned out as expected.

They really could use help at the 2, 3 and 4 positions. I have Thompson here because, of the players on the board, he’s the most likely to be a Scott Skiles-type player. He’s tough, aggressive and just a beast on the offensive boards. His skill level isn’t particularly high on the offensive end yet, but he’s a good fit alongside Bogut on the front line.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Golden State (0.8% chance of winning lottery)	Marcus Morris	Position: PF Height: 6-9 Weight: 235 Age: 21 School: Kansas

Analysis: We had the Warriors selecting Terrence Jones in the last mock. But with Jones out, they move on to Morris. Morris is more of a hybrid forward who can play both the 3 and the 4, sort of like Danny Granger. His ability to stretch the floor and rebound should be welcome in Golden State.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Utah (0.7% chance of winning lottery)	Alec Burks	Position: SG Height: 6-6 Weight: 195 Age: 19 School: Colorado

Analysis: The Jazz have traditionally lacked a scoring athletic slasher in the backcourt. It’s been an acknowledged need for years. This might be the year that brings changes. Burks is one of the most athletic guards in the draft. He has a quick first step and is a terrific finisher at the rim. His lack of a consistent jump shot and motor lowers his stock a bit. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth the risk.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Phoenix (0.6% chance of winning lottery)	Jimmer Fredette	Position: SG Height: 6-2 Weight: 195 Age: 22 School: Brigham Young

Analysis: Steve Nash won’t be around forever, and if the Suns want to continue to play their run-and-gun style, Fredette might be a great option. Like Nash, he is a dead-eye from long range and has a high basketball IQ.

He doesn’t have the ballhandling skills or court vision of Nash yet … but neither did Nash when he was drafted out of Santa Clara. Fredette’s terrible defense raises concerns, but at least he’s a fit on a team that has been willing to overlook Nash’s weakness in that area for years.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Houston (0.5% chance of winning lottery)	Jordan Hamilton	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 220 Age: 20 School: Texas

Analysis: Hamilton would be a great get for the Rockets here if he’s still on the board. He might be the best pure scorer in the draft. Hamilton has unlimited range and is always hunting for his shot.

His shot selection is flat-out embarrassing at times, but when he gets it going, he’s very tough to stop. The biggest question will be whether there’s enough shots for both Hamilton and Kevin Martin.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Indiana	Markieff Morris	Position: PF/C Height: 6-10 Weight: 245 Age: 21 School: Kansas

Analysis: The Pacers’ two biggest needs are an athletic guard who can create his own shot off the dribble, and a long, athletic big man who can block shots and rebound. Unfortunately neither of those players appears to be left on the board. So the Pacers have to settle for the next best thing.

Morris gives them depth at the 4 and the 5 and his ability to stretch the floor and rebound should be welcome in Indiana. Boston College’s Reggie Jackson is another real possibility here.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Philadelphia	Donatas Motiejunas	Position: PF Height: 7-0 Weight: 220 Age: 19 Country: Lithuania

Analysis: The Sixers have a ton of talent in the backcourt. But their frontcourt is a mess. Thaddeus Young is a free agent and a bit of a tweener. Elton Brand rebounded a bit this season, but his best days are behind him. Motiejunas might not be the answer, but at this point in the draft, he’s worth a look. He’s an aggressive scorer who can get to the rim. However, his lack of rebounding and defense are issues.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New York	Kenneth Faried	Position: PF Height: 6-8 Weight: 225 Age: 21 School: Morehead State

Analysis: The Knicks need size, rebounding and shot-blocking and no one has been better at that in college than Faried. He has relentless motor on the defensive end. He’s a big upgrade over the guy Mike D’Antoni liked to play in the middle — Jared Jeffries.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington (via Atlanta)	Klay Thompson	Position: PG Height: 6-6 Weight: 202 Age: 21 School: Washington St.

Analysis: Nick Young is heading into free agency, and the Wizards could use another shooter in their backcourt to complement Wall. Thompson rivals Fredette as the best shooter in the draft and would be a great fit for the Wizards.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Charlotte (via New Orleans)	Reggie Jackson	Position: PG Height: 6-3 Weight: 208 Age: 21 School: Boston College

Analysis: The Bobcats, as we noted, have needs just about everywhere. Jackson might be the biggest sleeper of the draft and should be a great fit in Charlotte. He is a terrific athlete, has a ridiculous 7-foot wingspan and shot the lights out this junior season. He has virtually every quality you look for in a modern NBA point guard.

The biggest question I have is whether he’ll even be around at this point once he hits the Chicago combine and workouts. I think he could have a Paul George-type rise in this draft. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bobcats ultimately considering him at No. 9.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota (via Memphis)	Nikola Mirotic	Position: SF Height: 6-10 Weight: 226 Age: 21 Country: Serbia

Analysis: Rest easy, Wolves fans. No, we don’t have Minnesota taking yet another point guard here. Instead, we have the team taking a point forward. Mirotic is a serious talent — a versatile forward playing at a very high level in the Euroleague right now.

There are some serious questions about his buyout right now (not sure the Wolves want to revisit this again), but at this point in the draft, he’s a great value. If his contract were clean and he could come right away, he’d be a lottery pick.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Portland	Darius Morris	Position: PG Height: 6-4 Weight: 190 Age: 20 School: Michigan

Analysis: Morris’ best comp in the league may be a young Andre Miller. He’s a big, power guard who sees the floor well and can make the spectacular pass. He’s not an elite athlete or a great shooter yet, but he’s the most improved player in college basketball this year.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Denver	Tobias Harris	Position: PF Height: 6-8 Weight: 226 Age: 18 School: Tennessee

Analysis: The Nuggets have a very bright future, post-Carmelo Anthony. The trade that netted them Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler for Melo might have worked out better for Denver than it did for New York. While the backcourt looks set with Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo, and Nene and Gallinari look like the future on the front line, there’s still a need in the frontcourt.

Chandler is a free agent, and the Nuggets might not want to meet his asking price. Harris might be one of the more underrated players in the draft. He can play both the 3 and 4, has a very high basketball IQ and has an NBA body. He doesn’t do any one thing at an elite level, but he’s one of the most well-rounded players in the draft.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Houston (via Orlando)	Chris Singleton	Position: SF Height: 6-9 Weight: 225 Age: 21 School: Florida State

Analysis: The Rockets lost an elite defender when they traded away Shane Battier. Singleton might be the best perimeter defensive player in the draft. He can guard three positions on the floor and shut down virtually everything with his length, strength and quickness. His offensive game is a still a work in progress, but that’s not going to discourage teams this late in the draft.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Oklahoma City	Tyler Honeycutt	Position: G/F Height: 6-8 Weight: 188 Age: 20 School: UCLA

Analysis: The Thunder are solid at virtually every position on the floor. But with Jeff Green being shipped off to Boston this year, Honeycutt could come in and bring some depth. Honeycutt isn’t as big as Green, but he’s a talented, versatile wing with a great basketball IQ. He’d be a great fit in OKC.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Boston	Jordan Williams	Position: C Height: 6-10 Weight: 260 Age: 20 School: Maryland

Analysis: The Celtics traded away Kendrick Perkins and have missed him. They grabbed Perkins years ago late in the first round and Williams could be another potential sleeper. He’s big, physical and was one of the best rebounders in college basketball this season. If he can get into shape, he could be a really good pick.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Dallas	Davis Bertans	Position: SF Height: 6-10 Weight: 210 Age: 18 Country: Latvia

Analysis: It’s unfair to compare any young European player to Dirk Nowitzki. But after watching Bertans shoot the lights out in the practices at the Nike Hoop Summit, that’s how some scouts were referring to him. Bertans doesn’t have Nowitzki’s size or strength and looks to be a pretty serious project. But long term, he could be a really nice addition for the Mavs.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Jersey (via L.A. Lakers)	Justin Harper	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 225 Age: 21 School: Richmond

Analysis: Harper played off the radar for most of the season, but scouts really like him. He is a good athlete, has good size and can really stroke the basketball. He plays a bit like a young Rashard Lewis. He won’t take over games very often but is a nice complementary player.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Chicago (via Miami)	Charles Jenkins	Position: SG Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 Age: 22 School: Hoftstra

Analysis: The Bulls still miss the explosive scoring off the bench that Ben Gordon used to deliver. While it’s a stretch to compare Jenkins to him, it’s not totally off. Jenkins can stroke the basketball and was one of the most explosive scorers in college basketball. A sleeper for the late first round.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	San Antonio	Lucas Noguiera	Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 218 Age: 18 Country: Brazil

Analysis: The Spurs have done a good job over the years of finding young international players and stashing them overseas for a few years until they are ready. Noguiera seems like a good candidate.

He’s long, athletic and a terrific shot-blocker. He just needs more experience and about 30 pounds of muscle. A few years in Europe should help prepare him.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Chicago	Bogan Bogdanovic	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 200 Age: 22 Country: Croatia

Analysis: Bogdanovic likely will stay in Europe the next few years thanks to a new lucrative contract in Spain. But he could be an asset for the Bulls — especially when they already have another pick in the first round.

Next Five In: Josh Selby, G, Kansas; Trey Thompkins, PF, Georgia; Travis Leslie, SG, Georgia; Jon Leuer, PF, Wisconsin; JaJuan Johnson, F, Purdue.