Pick by Pick: Draft Expectations

I had always wanted to find the stastical averages pick by pick, as I feel some people have much higher expectations of a drafted player in accordance to what a player picked in their position usually produces. People can have really unrealistic expectations of players, and while the draft has shown us most anything can happen, it also has kind of given us a level of what to expect. Basically, while you ideally want to draft a starter with a lottery pick at a position of need, you may not always have that chance and should keep your expectations realistic. Not every player you pick in the first round is going to be the answer you need at a given position and you more than likely are going to get a role player on average later in the draft.

Here is the link I am talking about that shows averages from the drafts of 1989-2008 drafts, done by 82games.com with help from Basketball-Reference:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Their is a lot you can get from this as far as what to expect from certain draft picks. Basically, here are a few things I think it outlines:

• You have a good chance of drafting a star player in the top 5 picks. Every pick from 1-5 over the last 20 years has a 60% or better of becoming a star, which by their definition is a player who’s statistics measure up to over 20 with points+rebounds+assists. While their could be room for argument in this measuring a players star credentials, it is a pretty good gauge I believe. Even though Marcus Camby, as an example, never was an All-Star, he averaged a double double over his long career and was a defensive player of the year. I would say you are a star if you do indeed average that over your career base. Basically, if you are choosing 1-5, the odds of landing a really good player are high.
• As of the very next pick, and in the 6-10 range, the odds decrease enormously of finding a star player. However, the odds of that player becoming someone who can stick around and find a role in the NBA are still pretty high. Still, the odds of finding a star player at one of those picks is about 3 in every 10 drafts. But, the odds of drafting a solid player (Their definition: Someone who’s statistics measure up to 15-19.9 in points+rebounds+assists), is slightly better than a coin flip. So, the odds are really good at finding a good player here, but pretty low if you are expecting greatness.
• Picks 11-14 are when the odds of grabbing a star player become really low. Picks 13 and 14 have defied the odds, with a 20% and 25% star rating respectively, but I think that was due in some small part to the HS players chosen at those slots who were very much underdrafted. However, this is where you can clearly see a drop in average statistical contribution. It drops off to under 10 ppg and the minutes are in the low-mid 20’s. This should usually be a part of the draft where you start going for the best available player ahead of a player who fits your teams need, in my opinion.

You can read a lot more in the side notes, but I completely agree when the author (Roland Beech) says that picks 11-20 are a crap shoot and past that you have very little chance of getting a player that contributes at a star level. Just a side note, I looked up to see all of the active players drafted from 1-14 from every draft since 1992 (The year Shaq was selected, as I do not think their is an older player in the league right now). Their are 157 still playing in the NBA out of those 252 picks (62.3%). In the picks 15-30, their are 124 still active out of a possible 288 (43%). From picks 31-60, their are 103 players out of a possible 540 (19.1%) still active in the league. Just kind of shows you a gauge for player longevity.

I hope this helps people look at what to expect from draft picks in a slightly different light. Their are exceptions to every rule, but this just gives maybe an expectation of what to expect out of a particular drafted player. If he exceeds it or meets it, you more than likely had a pretty successful pick. Otherwise, you probably had a slight or major bust. The lower your draft pick, it usually means the higher the margin for error. Also, if you get a really good starter out of picks 11-20, you are one of the lucky ones.