The Dangerous P word….

I thought your last rant was a little out there saying height doesnt matter in basketball, but this one i actually agree with, case in point, Oden over Durant in that draft, or Darko over Melo, Wade, Bosh, etc, durant was an absolute freak at Texas, but he was taken 2nd behind oden because Oden had more potential, and the pistons passed on players in argurably the greatest draft of all time because they thought Darko had potential to be the next Dirk. and now look at there 2 careers, and im not saying that potential has to be overlooked but if I were a GM im taking production over potential 9 out of 10 times

I thought your last rant was a little out there saying height doesnt matter in basketball, but this one i actually agree with, case in point, Oden over Durant in that draft, or Darko over Melo, Wade, Bosh, etc, durant was an absolute freak at Texas, but he was taken 2nd behind oden because Oden had more potential, and the pistons passed on players in argurably the greatest draft of all time because they thought Darko had potential to be the next Dirk. and now look at there 2 careers, and im not saying that potential has to be overlooked but if I were a GM im taking production over potential 9 out of 10 times

looking at potential vs production is not a black and white thing for GM’s making draft picks. You have to take both into consideration and make the best pick weighing both factorts. Do you want to be the guy(calipari) who desperately needs a sg and takes the proven all american from the big east(kerry kittles) who has been tearing up the college scene while passing on the unproven highschooler(kobe)?

looking at potential vs production is not a black and white thing for GM’s making draft picks. You have to take both into consideration and make the best pick weighing both factorts. Do you want to be the guy(calipari) who desperately needs a sg and takes the proven all american from the big east(kerry kittles) who has been tearing up the college scene while passing on the unproven highschooler(kobe)?

The age thing is pretty dead on, the fact that freshman have more "potential" than someone similarily aged who is a junior or senior (It happens) is pretty bogus. I think it is more about the physical tools a person possesses or could possess, and of course can be focused on someone who is a tremendous athlete who still needs seasoning and a more complete skill set. I think players producing at the college level or in Europe is important, but you also have to think about how that player will develop. For as many busts as their have been as far as one and done’s, the success level is pretty high. It depends on the prospect, and their really is no proven formula I have seen to predict a players output. I felt Gerald Wallace had a pretty poor freshman year at Alabama, but definitely was a steal when he went 25th in the draft due to his potential. He became an NBA All-Star and has become a very well thought of defender. Meanwhile, Javaris Crittenton had a very solid freshman season at Georgia Tech, much more so than Wallace’s single year, and he was a tall and athletic PG. He was taken 19th and had a very hard time creating a role for himself, even before the whole Arenas incident.

I think you kind of need to find a balance between the two, and even then it is still a gamble. As much as everyone says Kevin Durant was the sure thing in 2007 due to his amazing freshman year, Greg Oden was no slouch either. He was Big 10 POY and a 1st Team All-American, so surely he had production as well as potential, while his production in college was not as impressive as KD. Durant definitely got raves because of his potential, which offensively he has filled if not surpassed, but he is still a ways away from being the lock down defender people predicted him to be due to his ridiculous length. Potential is dangerous, but it is dangerous to pass up on. If you take the senior All-American over the athletic freshman who needs more time, once that time flies if that potential gets tapped you might make a big mistake. Just remember, Joe Alexander was a juniour when he entered the draft, with amazing athletic potential, who has now been cut by three teams going into his third year in the league. He was the 8th pick! Potential is not just age, and it is incredibly hard to judge and sometimes even more difficult to pass up on.

The age thing is pretty dead on, the fact that freshman have more "potential" than someone similarily aged who is a junior or senior (It happens) is pretty bogus. I think it is more about the physical tools a person possesses or could possess, and of course can be focused on someone who is a tremendous athlete who still needs seasoning and a more complete skill set. I think players producing at the college level or in Europe is important, but you also have to think about how that player will develop. For as many busts as their have been as far as one and done’s, the success level is pretty high. It depends on the prospect, and their really is no proven formula I have seen to predict a players output. I felt Gerald Wallace had a pretty poor freshman year at Alabama, but definitely was a steal when he went 25th in the draft due to his potential. He became an NBA All-Star and has become a very well thought of defender. Meanwhile, Javaris Crittenton had a very solid freshman season at Georgia Tech, much more so than Wallace’s single year, and he was a tall and athletic PG. He was taken 19th and had a very hard time creating a role for himself, even before the whole Arenas incident.

I think you kind of need to find a balance between the two, and even then it is still a gamble. As much as everyone says Kevin Durant was the sure thing in 2007 due to his amazing freshman year, Greg Oden was no slouch either. He was Big 10 POY and a 1st Team All-American, so surely he had production as well as potential, while his production in college was not as impressive as KD. Durant definitely got raves because of his potential, which offensively he has filled if not surpassed, but he is still a ways away from being the lock down defender people predicted him to be due to his ridiculous length. Potential is dangerous, but it is dangerous to pass up on. If you take the senior All-American over the athletic freshman who needs more time, once that time flies if that potential gets tapped you might make a big mistake. Just remember, Joe Alexander was a juniour when he entered the draft, with amazing athletic potential, who has now been cut by three teams going into his third year in the league. He was the 8th pick! Potential is not just age, and it is incredibly hard to judge and sometimes even more difficult to pass up on.

Generally speaking and not specifically referring to freak cases, the guys who have more potential usually do become better basketball players. Even if a guy doesn’t live up to all-star, superstar potential that’s in his scouting report, they generally don’t equal out as flat out busts either, and they become good pros. I would say drafting need over potential is more of a problem than what you’re talking about, but that is a different matter.

Generally speaking and not specifically referring to freak cases, the guys who have more potential usually do become better basketball players. Even if a guy doesn’t live up to all-star, superstar potential that’s in his scouting report, they generally don’t equal out as flat out busts either, and they become good pros. I would say drafting need over potential is more of a problem than what you’re talking about, but that is a different matter.

But even that is fool proof. Steven Hunter moved up in a lot of drafts because he was the same age as Eddy Curry/Kwame Brown/Tyson Chandler but he had played two years of college ball. Also, Taj Gibson was like a 21 year old frosh, but he developed quite nicely and fit on the Bulls pretty damn well his rookie year, after 3 years in college mind you, but he was a 24 year old juniour. So many of these guys get held back, it is hard to know who is actually in the age group of their HS graduating class. Malik Hairston was only 17 when he came to U of O and said he was going to "Carmelo-ize" our program. Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes is 17 and looks completely legit. It is more about what the player possesses than about their age, but if someone is advanced with little experience or at a young age, in either skill set, athleticism or size, than you look at that as potential. I agree with steroid that the guys with potential do indeed usually become the better players, it is not fool proof, but I would say it definitely applies to the draft and you usually take the risk on a player with more upside than a player who may have produced more in their college career. 

But even that is fool proof. Steven Hunter moved up in a lot of drafts because he was the same age as Eddy Curry/Kwame Brown/Tyson Chandler but he had played two years of college ball. Also, Taj Gibson was like a 21 year old frosh, but he developed quite nicely and fit on the Bulls pretty damn well his rookie year, after 3 years in college mind you, but he was a 24 year old juniour. So many of these guys get held back, it is hard to know who is actually in the age group of their HS graduating class. Malik Hairston was only 17 when he came to U of O and said he was going to "Carmelo-ize" our program. Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes is 17 and looks completely legit. It is more about what the player possesses than about their age, but if someone is advanced with little experience or at a young age, in either skill set, athleticism or size, than you look at that as potential. I agree with steroid that the guys with potential do indeed usually become the better players, it is not fool proof, but I would say it definitely applies to the draft and you usually take the risk on a player with more upside than a player who may have produced more in their college career. 

One more thing: Older guys that have been in college for 3-4 years have much less time to develop than a 19-20 year old which plays into building a franchise, and generally those guys that have been in college have showed all their cards or else they’d be playing pro ball sooner too.  Also considering the fact that a prospect shows a high skill set and athleticism  at such a young age, there is no telling how good they can actually become especially if they are outplaying the college level competition. Just imagine if some of the best young talent in the NBA would have stayed in college 2-3 more years…

One more thing: Older guys that have been in college for 3-4 years have much less time to develop than a 19-20 year old which plays into building a franchise, and generally those guys that have been in college have showed all their cards or else they’d be playing pro ball sooner too.  Also considering the fact that a prospect shows a high skill set and athleticism  at such a young age, there is no telling how good they can actually become especially if they are outplaying the college level competition. Just imagine if some of the best young talent in the NBA would have stayed in college 2-3 more years…

Actually the most bust come from guess that are thought to have potential. The guys who make it are skilled while having potential
Steve hunter moved up because he had good workouts.  Age shouldn’t matter to much because if you’re a skilled player you’re a skilled player. When drafting you look at skill and potential.

Actually the most bust come from guess that are thought to have potential. The guys who make it are skilled while having potential
Steve hunter moved up because he had good workouts.  Age shouldn’t matter to much because if you’re a skilled player you’re a skilled player. When drafting you look at skill and potential.

Actually the most bust come from guess that are thought to have potential. The guys who make it are skilled while having potential
Steve hunter moved up because he had good workouts.  Age shouldn’t matter to much because if you’re a skilled player you’re a skilled player. When drafting you look at skill and potential.