Nate Ament vs Yaxel Lendeborg

I had to sit on this one for a day… good call here!
I can see a world where a team goes in on a ready now player. Yaxel can contribute in many ways and checks a lot of boxes. If you select Yaxel – well peak Yaxel is already close to fruition. He is after all an older senior in this class.
Nate Ament is the clear long term pick for a team. Little longer and has a bit to grow in his frame still. Nate has a lot of skills to go with his tools…
Yaxel’s skills are a bit like a more finished version of what Nate is. Yaxel in theory could be the better pick – as Nate’s peak we’re just unsure about. Although I think it depends on team, I’d go with the swing in most cases. Give me Nate here. I think his potential long term is slightly better than Yaxel’s, but it could be much better. If he’s doesn’t end up as good as Yaxel, it’s not the end of the world still imo. Yaxel to me will have an impact (not exactly a comp but impact) of a PJ Washington or so… Nate could end up better in due time. In the vacuum, give me Nate.

I think come June, it will not be a question that Ament goes off the board first. We went through this a few years ago with Dalton Knecht being a highly accomplished older college player. Now, Yaxel’s size does give him an advantage over Knecht. He measured out extremely well last summer, 6′ 8.5″ in socks, 7’4″ wingspan, and a 9’0.5″ standing reach, and has since gone out and showed a much more diverse skillset than he had (or at least showed) the year prior. One can easily see him being another Toumani Camara, and if one was extremely bullish could look upon him as another Pascal Siakam (Pascal turned 23 as a rookie and Yaxel will turn 24 before the start of his). Even at his age, and the weight NBA teams give age in their analytic analysis, I think teams will take him before Knecht or Siakam. I have a hard time believing he will go before Ament or Cenac. If you assume Peterson, Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Flemings, Acuff, and Brown also likely going ahead of him, that would likely start his range at 10. If you consider the draft histories of the teams around that range, Memphis has generally gone down the analytics path. Yaxel will be an interesting contrast as his physical makeup and stats will help him, but his age will hurt. The Bucks have typically gone for very young unproven projectable guys (Beauchamp, AJ Johnson, Livingston, Smith, Markovic), and if they deal Giannis would not seem likely to start their rebuild with an older rookie as their face. The Bulls and have cleared out their front office, but have not fired Billy Donovan who seems to have a lot of power there despite not having much success. They have also taken those types (Essengue, Buzelis, Terry, Williams, etc) in the 1st. Dallas will also have a new GM, though it could possibly be Michael Finley, but they might be looking for a lot of runway going forward given how the AD, Klay, and Kyrie plan went. Will they take a rookie who is 4 years older than Flagg with their last lottery pick in some time? Portland’s front office has largely gone for less proven prospects (Yang, Sharpe, Scoot, Badji, Rupert, though they did a post-draft trade to get Camara). Golden State has taken a different approach since its two timeline picks didn’t work out. It would make sense for them to go for Yaxel as he could do some of the things that they wanted Kuminga to do, but wouldn’t. Miami is big on physical makeup and conditioning. Yaxel could be a possibility there.

I would bet a pretty penny that Yaxel will be better than Nate Ament. Nate is the absolute template to be the next Kyle Kuzma. He doesn’t score efficiently from any of the three levels (aside from getting to the line), and he’s going to be functional enough on defense that you don’t have to hid him or anything but he is not going to meaningfully make plays.

Yaxel is going to be able to guard 3-5 and facilitate as as secondary playmaker. He’s going to be faster Kyle Anderson with more heft, an ideal running partner for both offensive-hub centers and rim runners, a rare combination. I usually dislike drafting old rookies due to ‘man among boys’ concerns but Yaxel did have some growing up to do, I too liked playing videogames too much when I was 19.

I’m not advocating that Ament is without risk as much as I am just stating that history shows a guy like him is going to go before someone like Yaxel.

6th year players rarely get drafted. John Tonje was taken 53rd last year. Since covid, the 2nd round has seen a lot of 5th year 2nd rounders. For 5th year guys in the 1st round, it has been Knecht went 16th, Terrence Shannon went 27th, Baylor Scheierman went 30th all in 2024, and Nique Clifford went 24th last year. The last 5th year player to go in the lottery was Cameron Johnson at 11 in 2019. Before him, Derrick White was a 5th year guy in 2017 when he went 29th. I think Buddy Hield was the last 24 year old lottery pick, and there was some controversy as to whether the teams in the league knew whether he was 23 or 24 at that time. Anyway, I am not assessing Yaxel as a player as much as I am assessing the tendencies and weights teams have used when selecting players. If Yaxel falls into the mid-teens on draft night, I wouldn’t be stunned.

If Yaxel was younger, he would go earlier. This isn’t the NFL. Those teams have pretty established track records of taking 23 or 24 year olds early in its draft. Akheem Mesidor is 25, and is widely projected to go in the 1st. NBA teams have behaved differently when it comes to age, and it is not unreasonable to take that into consideration when it comes to projecting where someone will go. That is all I am saying.