My Risers & Fallers

I hear you on the Henry thing but he will go to the top 14 because of upside

He’ll be a lotto pick if he plays how he played earlier in the season. He’s already NBA-ready and if he improves his handle, his upside will be very high. It’s the only thing holding him back. Now that he’s struggling with his shot, he can’t score because he’s not a very good ball-handler. If that improves, he’ll be a 3rd or even 2nd option for a team.

Jeremy Hazell is going to be a good scorer for someone. He had a very bad game yesterday, but if you watched, they double-teamed him off every screen or pick. It would’ve helped if they had anyone stepping up scoring. He scored 40 against a top 10 West Virginia squad, 38 vs. a top-3 Syracuse team, 33 vs. Cincy, 32 vs. Villanova, 28 vs. USF head-to-head vs. Dominique Jones, and 25 vs. Louisville head-to-head against Jerry Smith who I feel is the best on-ball defender in college basketball. Good competition and outstanding results. He had 2 bad games this season vs. Pitt (he had 8 points 2 weeks back in their win), but no other bad games after that. You have to be a great scorer to even be allowed to take 20 shots a game. He’s Seton Hall’s only perimeter scoring threat.

I didn’t mean NBA-ready playing-wise, my bad, but he’s got NBA-ready physical tools. Demar DeRozan had a very similar conference swing, and look where he was drafted and look how he’s performed this year. It can be argued that Henry has more actual skill than Derozan does too.

Stefon Jackson wasn’t anywhere near the shooter Hazell is. And he scored in the Conference USA, where there was 1 or 2 at best quality teams. Hazell is scoring against the best teams in the nation, and in the deepest conference pound-for-pound.

Dhamp2 predicted in the preseason that Willie Warren wouldn’t be drafted in the lottery!!!!!!

Anymore questions?

Dhamp2…the greatest basketball mind in the world. Next to Hubie Brown anyway.

never been a huge henry fan- i think butler is going to be very solid. he’s a versatile guy that can do a little bit of everything.

Dhamp – I too, got a lot of flack for saying Willie Warren wouldn’t go lottery.

JNixon-Iggy/gatorheel – Xavier Henry does have an NBA body. While there are vast differences between Henry and DeRozen, I also believe they will have a similar impact in the NBA. DeRozen was more athletic but Henry is stronger. If Henry enters the draft this season I think he could have a 10 ppg rookie season, depending on who drafts him. He will be of starter-quality in the NBA, similar to Martell Webster maybe? He’s slumping, but remember, Eric Gordon also tanked during his freshman year at Indiana.

Just because your a good athlete doesn’t mean you have a higher upside than another player. I think one of the biggest misconceptions about being a great athlete is that you automatically have more upside than another player who maybe isn’t quite a great athlete. Skill level matters more IMO when talking about upside, even though athleticism is very important. I personally don’t think that Henry athleticism is going to keep him from being at least a good NBA player.

Derozan has the same weaknesses holding him back that Henry has, maybe even more. He can’t create his own offense because he has a poor handle, but he also isn’t much of a shooter, especially compared to Henry. He scores off of the occasional straight-line drive, 15 foot jumpers, and in transition.

If Henry develops a handle, he could be an unbelievable scorer as it’s the only thing holding him back (he’s a good shooter, never mind the slump he’s in right now) and he’s already an NBA level defender. He could also be a post-up threat with his size.

We’ll have to wait to see who’s better in the future, but I think that Henry has just as much upside as Derozan because he has fewer things to work on.

i think the argument about upside is legit JNixon….

skills can be acquired, athleticism cannot. regardless of which matters more in terms of being successful. In the NBA (almost) everyone has elite athleticism AND skills. see: adam morrison, for an example of what skills will get you without athleticism.

i think the argument about upside is legit JNixon….

skills can be acquired, athleticism cannot. regardless of which matters more in terms of being successful. In the NBA (almost) everyone has elite athleticism AND skills. see: adam morrison, for an example of what skills will get you without athleticism.

Morrison was a much worse athlete than Henry and Stephenson. I don’t see either one of them struggling to defend or get shots off in the NBA like Morrison has, especially Stephenson because he’s very quick and he has good handles. Both of them are wayyy better defenders than Morrison ever was, and both have the length to kind of eliminate their lack of great leaping ability.

not saying that henry is morrison, just trying to give an example of UPSIDE, or lack thereof.

I know Stephenson and Henry are quicker, more agile, and better leapers than Morrison. Maybe it looks that way on TV, but I think they are much better athletes than Morrison is. Morrison didn’t do anything in college athletically that would make me think otherwise.

Morrison got his shot off better than Henry and Stephenson because he had a size advantage over his matchups just about every time on the floor, and he utilized screens and picks more.

Gator – Xavier Henry will score his points in his debut season using his aggresiveness, strength, three point shooting ability and cuts. If he ends up on a good passing team, he won’t have to create off the dribble. He isn’t a go-to player yet, but like I said, look at Martell Webster. He scores 11 ppg without putting the ball on the floor. What does Martell Webster have that Xavier Henry doesn’t (offensively at least)?

Iggy – I thought about saying that argument, but realised that DeRozen does have more potential than Henry for more reasons besides atheticism.

badger – Look at Larry Bird, John Stockton or Magic Johnson. Upside is confusing to me because atheticism really doesn’t make the player or his “ceiling”.

i think a player’s ceiling is almost entirely a function of his athleticism… whether or not the player ever even gets close to that ceiling is a different story. imagine how good larry bird would have been with athleticism like demar derozan?

I like that Martell Webster comparison alot for Henry….That is pretty much a dead-on comparison

badger – Don’t go down that road. We could get all rhetorical and I could say that if Larry Bird had DeRozen’s athleticism he wouldn’t have had to work so hard on his skills and blah, blah, blah. Destiny is a little too deep for a conversation about Xavier Henry’s atheticism.

Iggy – I know, right! I read it on a mock draft somewhere and I thought, “Wow, I should have thought of that!”

Found it: http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

i mean, im just saying that if larry bird had better athleticism, he would have had a higher ceiling- which i guess is not the best argument.

anyways. i still think a players athleticism is the most important factor in determining his ceiling. it’s like saying well if he could jump higher he could do X Y and Z… If he could run faster her could…. Isn’t a person;s ceiling what they possibly could be?

Maybe, but the more I think about it, the less I see “ceilings” in players. You never know who could be the next Magic, Stockton or Bird. For all we know, John Wall could bust due to injury.

For me attitude and injuries are the most important factors to determine “ceilings” and “floors”. Athleticism can make things easier for a player, but ultimately offense and defense are the only two things that matter in basketball. A great athlete can make spectacular plays, but an unathletic player could find other ways to score. BTW, you can make a case that injuries were a bigger factor in the Morrison bust than atheticism was.

good point on the injuries and the attitude.

injuries clearly will affect the way a player’s career plays out, but only past injuries really have anything to do with a person’s ceiling… but you’re probably right about morrison and the injuries. i still think we’re seeing it in redick as well…. his ceiling just isn’t as high as some other guys.

attitude is also important. it has a lot to do with the way the player’s attitude fits with the given coach’s attitude too. you’ve definitely got good points. i still think athleticism is the biggest factor. lol