NBA Draft players staying or going

I’m a little surprised that Hunter Sallis returned, thought he had a first round promise… but he can make bank returning though. I thought the opposite for Cam Christie. He’s probably a 2nd round pick and elected to stay in the draft rather than make money at school.

I was slightly surprised Karaban didn’t stay in coming off a double NCAA title winning team. But he was probably looking for a first round guarantee to stay in. Next season he could well be UConn’s focal point whilst this year just gone he was 3rd/4th option. There is a danger he doesn’t improve as much as he hopes and next year’s draft looks deeper. But he could still return for his final year and not declare until 2026.

NIL has afforded guys the chance to make better decisions. If a guy doesn’t hate college, he doesn’t have to sprint into the G-League or the leagues in Japan, Taiwan, or Bulgaria. It was not so long ago that the likes of Aaron Bradshaw, Xavier Booker, Kwame Evans Jr., Dillon Mitchell, Kanaan Carlyle, and Mackenzie Mgbako would be in this draft. Some wouldn’t get in the NBA with any guarantees, and others would likely wash out within a year or so. The list has dropped quite a bit. Bronny James has his father and agent conducting the most ridiculous act of kabuki pretending that he is a legitimate prospect on his own, but I think he will be ok even if the Lakers drop him once his dad retires. As someone who likes the idea of the NBA minimizing the number of guys on their roster (at least the non-two-way roster) that just cannot be put on the court as anything beyond a tank warrior, this is progress. Mark Sears is a sub-6-foot guard, and will be next year. Realistically, he cannot do much short of getting LeBron to adopt him to help his draft stock by returning. He can probably make more at Alabama. Payton Sandfort struggled in Chicago, and didn’t test out as an NBA athlete. Standing in a G-League corner might be a living, but also can wait. Hunter Sallis and Alex Karaban might have been able to get guaranteed money, but aren’t going back to campus broke. Of the guys who withdrew from the draft to the transfer window, it is a fascinating business decision. As we get into the summer, teams have only a few more chances to improve their roster. I am interested to see whether some school’s collective throws whatever they have left at Jamir Watkins, Wooga Poplar, Ugonna Onyenso, Coleman Hawkins or Trevon Brazile. I think Miami has to replace Omier, and they have the Life Wallet guy. Arkansas has eight guys on their roster. SMU threw a lot of money at Andy Enfield. I assume they will want the roster to go with him.

With NILS we could see the top HS prospects not committing until much later than they used to do so given they will want to see where the best roster opportunities are. I wonder if the late first/2nd round level players will be the ones targeted by the NILS money as the top one and done guys will always likely jump straight to the NBA. But if you could get guaranteed NILS money for 3 or 4 years and still be a 2nd round level guy it gives those players a bigger earning window in NCAA and NBA.

What sort of NILS money would Adama Sanogo have got if he had remained in college I wonder?

I assume there will be a limit on what teams can spend on NILS money although a player could have their own endorsements potentially.

With Bronny does some other team draft him before it gets to the Lakers pick just to see what the fallout is?

International players are limited in their ability to earn NIL money due to being on student visas. They are restricted in their ability to hold jobs while in the country on that visa. Some schools maneuver to get around it, I have no idea how Great Osobor and Washington are handling that situation, but it is certainly a limiting factor. With Adama Sanogo, Zach Edey, Pelle Larsson, Mo Diarra, etc, it plays a role in their decision to leave. For domestic guys, some just want to be done with school, but if that is not a problem they could make more than they will in any season in which they are a pro. Most of these guys aren’t getting on an NBA contract or two-way, and unlikely to eventually ascend to the highly paid leagues abroad. I think Nijel Pack is the most famous example because the businessman who facilitated him going to Miami made public that his endorsement agreement was for $400K per year. Where can he make that as a pro? He is far from proven enough to get that in Europe or China. He is listed at 6’0″ so a two-way deal is not likely. It is the soundest financial decision for him to exhaust his college eligibility. Drew Timme just wanted to be done with college after four years. Nothing wrong with his decision. He was only given an Exhibit-10 contract, which is essentially a $50K signing bonus for the G-League to bump up the $40K salary. Given that he broke his foot, I am not sure he got a full season salary for the Wisconsin Herd. Hunter Dickinson made considerably more than that at Kansas, and will next year. Those two are the same age. To each their own. If Dickinson is not going to get a two-way, then Lawrence, KS might be preferable to calling himself a pro and heading to Okinawa or Hobart.

Thanks for that BTPH I didn’t know that non US born or naturalised citizens would have the student visa issue with NILS thanks for highlighting that. Edey as a double player of the year would have almost been off the NILS scale given what he could bring to a team, But as a pretty safe first round pick this year he was always going to declare despite only being a likely 2nd rounder last year.

Edey with his game even if he doesn’t pan out in the NBA will always make good money in one of the best non NBA Leagues.

With Sanogo it was more a comment that had he stayed he might have worked himself into draft contention this year as the best player on the best NCAA Team. But the explanation about his NILs earning being limited fully explained why he went pro.

Edey commented during the college season that there were opportunities he could not take because of the visa he was on. Due to him being Canadian, he had chances to go home and do some things, but clearly the national businesses didn’t want to go out of their way to film a commercial or ad shoot in Canada. Caitlin Clark, Cameron Brink, Hailey Van Lith, Paige Bueckers, and Shaeur Sanders had national commercial deals, Clark had numerous ones. Edey was the most recognizable men’s college basketball player, but couldn’t take all the opportunities that would have been available had he been a domestic student. Sanogo wasn’t especially marketable. His language skills and game didn’t really translate in that way. The UConn booster businessmen would have given him something, but not the considerable money some others could. Plus, he spent the whole year on a two-way. If the Bulls opt to let some of their veterans leave this summer, he could slide into Drummond’s role next season. If he works in that role, he has himself a long career. Anyway, I think the market will be different next year. I would be surprised if one of the shoes companies don’t incorporate Cooper Flagg in their various campaigns next year, given that Duke is a Nike school they would be the most likely company. If nothing else, they get him on a contract early. Nike probably would have saved money had they signed Zion prior to his year at Duke than having had to wait a year.

The big shoe brands giving players deals whilst they are in college makes sense if they have break points in the deal if the players don’t pan out and bonuses if they get drafted high. I could imagine Airious Bailey getting a good deal with his name alone.