#1 Alabama vs #5 San Diego State
Number one overall seed Alabama breezed through their first two matchups in this NCAA Tournament. There isn’t a ton to take away from the Crimson Tide’s first-round game against Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Alabama got deep into their bench pretty early on with star freshmen like Noah Clowney and Brandon Miller only playing 9 and 19 minutes respectively. The one thing of note is that Brandon Miller didn’t score a single point in his 19 minutes and there were reports that he had suffered a groin injury. It didn’t seem to matter against Maryland though when Miller played 34 minutes and scored 19 points to go along with 7 rebounds.
San Diego State had a bit of a tougher path to the Sweet 16. Their first-round matchup against 12-seeded Charleston was a close back-and-forth game that the Aztecs were eventually able to pull out with their defense. Charleston who going into the game ranked 11th in the country in three-pointers made per game with 9.9 were held to just 5 on 24 attempts by the aggressive SDSU defense. The Aztecs cruised in their second-round game against 13-seed Furman winning by 23 in a game that was never really close after the first 10 minutes.
After each winning two games the Tide and the Aztecs are set to play on Friday with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line. These are two teams that like to play at drastically different speeds. Alabama plays at the 5th fastest tempo in the country according to KenPom. San Diego State comes in at just the 263rd fastest tempo in the country.
The Aztecs are a really strong, physical defensive team that rebounds well and rarely makes mistakes. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they limit second-chance opportunities extremely well by keeping opponents off the glass. They only allow 8.5 offensive rebounds per game which ranks inside the top 50 in the country. While their success is often determined by their defensive performance, they do have a solid offense. They aren’t going to wow you and score 90 points, but they are extremely efficient and work the ball around to make sure they get quality looks and rarely force shots, which explains their slow tempo.
Alabama’s offense is the complete opposite of the Aztecs. Alabama loves to get shots up early in the shot clock and attempt the 19th most shots per game. A lot of those shots also happen to be threes where they attempt the 4th most shots from deep per game. On paper that would seem to make Alabama a good matchup for the underdog Aztecs but it’s not that simple. Alabama is much more than just a good three-point shooting team though. They are the best rebounding team in the country averaging 44 a game with 12.9 coming on the offensive glass.
The Crimson Tide also has the nations 3rd best defense. They’ve allowed opponents to the second lowest FG% in the entire country. Teams are shooting just 37.1% against the athletic Alabama defense. San Diego State’s offense relies on working the ball around until they can get a good look and against the Crimson Tide, they may not get many.
The matchup to watch in this one is the battle of the two-point guards. Matt Bradley is the engine on both ends of the floor for this Aztecs team. He’s their leading scorer and facilitates most of their offensive actions. For Alabama former five-star recruit Jahvon Quinerly runs the point. He hasn’t been a big scorer for most of the year averaging just under 9 points per game, but he has come to life down lately averaging 19 points per game in his last three. Bradley has about 3 inches and almost 50 pounds on Quinerly so it will be interesting to see what he can do against a tough physical defender like Bradley.
While I think SDSU is capable of pulling the upset I think it’s extremely unlikely. While the teams are about equally strong defensibly Alabama is much stronger on the offensive end of the floor. Unless things fall perfectly for the Aztecs, I just don’t see them being able to score enough points to keep pace with Alabama.
#6 Creighton vs #15 Princeton
The Princeton Tigers have defied all odds beating 2-seed Arizona and 7-seed Missouri on their road to the Sweet 16. Will their Cinderella run continue against 6-seed Creighton? It’s possible but I think unlikely.
Princeton is quietly the 9th best rebounding team in the country. They grab about 39.5 boards per game which is an extremely impressive number. Outside of that, however, Princeton doesn’t really stand out as an elite team in any other area. That being said the way they have played in the last two games has been incredible. Princeton has locked opponents down so far in the tournament and have shot the lights out and refused to miss. Their yearlong numbers indicate that won’t be the case, but it is March where numbers matter significantly less.
Creighton’s starting five is probably one of the best 5 man units in all of college basketball. With all 5 starters on the floor, Creighton is a great all-around team that excels in areas on both ends of the floor. Creighton is led by big man and Big East DPOY, Ryan Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner is one of the best rim protectors in the country and ranks who ranks top 20 in Blocks per game. Kalkbrenner is also a force on the offensive end, leading the Bluejays with 15.7 points per game. Kalkbrenner is flanked by two athletic 6’7” wings, Baylor Scheierman and Arthur Kaluma, who both defend extremely well. On offense, Scheierman is an elite three-point shooter and Kaluma is a wing with guard skills and knows how to get to the hoops. In the backcourt, Creighton has two versatile guards in Trey Alexander and Ryan Nembhard. Both are great all-around players who can distribute and handle the ball, knock down shots, and defend. It’s an elite well balanced unit that can do a little bit of everything.
The problem with Creighton is that after that starting five, they don’t have much else. Francisco Farabello is the only other player that averages more than 10 minutes per game. That makes it really only 6 players that play significant minutes for this team. If they get in foul trouble, they can get into trouble without their stars on the floor. The good news for Creighton is they average the third least fouls per game in the country.
The odds are against the underdog Princeton in this one but not impossible. If Princeton stays hot shooting and Creighton gets into foul trouble, it’s anyone’s game but I don’t really see that happening.
Final Four Prediction
That would leave us with top overall seed Alabama facing off against the 6-seed Creighton Bluejays in the Elite 8. I have been really high on this Creighton team all year long but I’m not sure they have enough depth to get passed this Alabama team. Alabama has nine guys that play significant minutes compared to really just five for Creighton. If it was just a 5 v 5 game Creighton would be more than good enough to hang with Alabama on offense and defense. Unfortunately for Greg McDermott that’s not how it works. I would love to see it happen but I don’t think they can pull it off and Alabama will punch their ticket to Houston.
