Updated NCAAM preseason predictions

I’m going with Duke or Arkansas winning it all.

FYI, Arkansas lost by 30 to Texas in an exhibition game, and Gonzaga lost by 19 to Tennessee.

If Gonzaga needs time to adjust to life after Chet and Nembhard, the schedule will not help. They have Michigan State on an air force carrier, @ Texas, Kentucky but not at the Kennel, the Phil Knight tournament (Purdue or West Virginia, and then likely Duke, Florida, or Xavier), then Baylor in South Dakota, Washington at home, and then a trip to Birmingham to play Alabama all before their Christmas break. To recap, trip to San Diego, five days later in Austin, back to Spokane, Portland for four days, presumably back to Spokane for class and practice, Sioux Falls, back to Spokane for end of semester and final exams with a few lesser games mixed in, and then Birmingham. The cumulative effect of the travel, transition of the roster, and quality of opponents could drop them off the #1 line.

Arkansas is basically a completely new team assembled with transfers and freshmen with only two rotation players back. Their early schedule looks largely manageable for a team that will have to use the non-conference season to come together. Still, other than the opener of the Maui Invitational against what appears to be a poor Louisville team, they could drop a couple there. I don’t think the SEC appears all that deep, but Tennessee could be strong and they only face them in Knoxville. They also have a pair with Texas A&M, Alabama, and Kentucky. Those are the teams in the conference to really threaten them, so they have about as heavy a load in conference as possible.

Also, if Jett Howard is the real deal and Jaelin Llewellyn transitions well to the Big Ten, Michigan could easily win the Big Ten and end up on a #1 or #2 line. Dickinson is possible All-American. Terrance Williams II and Kobe Bufkin seem set to take the next step. They have good size and length at every position, and aren’t lacking for athleticism even with Dickinson not exactly being a speed demon. I worry about Illinois being regarded as a close to elite team. They lost Kofi Cockburn (sadly now with Niigata Albirex), Alfonso Plummer, Trent Frazier, Jacob Grandison, Andre Curbelo, Da’Monte Williams, Omar Payne, Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk, Brandin Podziemski, and Austin Hutcherson. That is 84% of the minutes, 86% of the points, and 84% of the assists, and 73% of the rebounds. I think Matthew Mayer and Terrence Shannon have the potential to be good, and Skyy Clark has been talked up as a freshman who can be good right away, but I can’t put them with Indiana and Michigan as Big Ten favorites. If Mayer and Shannon are as inconsistent as they were at their previous stops, they could easily be .500 in the league.