NBA Draft: Stock Watch
By Aran Smith
The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is in the books, and the Cinderellas and upset bids fell short in most instances making for a relatively under whelming start to the tournament. But the good news is that more elite level teams are left which should make for an extra exciting second and third weekend of games. Chalk was the predominant theme as every 1,2 and 3 seed advanced and only Arizona (12) and Purdue (5) made it through from non-chalk teams (which has to be a record).
Blame it on quality coaching, as nearly half the field: 7 out of the 16 coaches remaining have won an NCAA title. Also, 7 of the 9 title winning coaches that were in the tournament advanced (Jim Calhoun, Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim, and Bill Self). And the two that did not (Gary Williams and Tubby Smith) were overachievers, taking inferior teams into the tourney in the first place.
A number of draft hopefuls had great efforts which enhanced their stocks, while others fizzled in the limelight of March Madness. Here's a look at the draft hopefuls that helped themselves and hurt themselves during the first weekend of the tourney.
DeMar Derozan 6-6 210 SG USC Fr.
Derozan came into USC as one of the most high profile prospects in the nation, but after starting the year off unimpressively, he has come on like a house on fire in the final month. Beginning with his late season conference play and then helping USC to win the Pac-Ten tourney.
In what will probably be his final two collegiate (tourney) games, he scored 18 points in each showing a sweet jump shot to accompany developing skills. He also proved to be a handful for the #2 seed Spartans who knocked down shots but struggled to contain the standout freshman.
Though USC fell short against Michigan State, Derozan flashed his world class athleticism on multiple occasions getting out on the break for take off (dunk) and using his speed and athleticism to his advantage on the boards and in loose ball situations.
His one year at USC ultimately paid off considerably, showing a great example of why the one year draft rule is actually a good thing.
He still lacks a three point shot and relies too heavily on his athleticism, but he's apparently found his mid range shot, and it has completely transformed his game. He's starting to "get it". In the month of March (over his final 7 games) DeRozan averaged 19 ppg on 58% fg.
Derozan's solid showing in the tournament has his stock on the rise and scouts now feel that he is likely to be a top 10 pick in the draft this year. Despite being seen as an upside pick, Derozan is currently projected to be taken 6th overall.
Sam Young 6-6 220 SF Pittsburgh Fr.
Pitt faced a tough Oklahoma State match up in round two, and found themselves in a dogfight. In the first half with the Cowboys threatening to build a double digit lead, it was Young's scoring (24 points in first half) that neutralized Oklahoma State's hot shooting.
Young has really learned to stay with in his game, doing what he does well. His exaggerated pump fake is amazingly effective as he essentially raises the ball way over his head on the fake. Such a slow and dramatic fake might make it easier for elite level defenders to recover before he makes his move, however it has been a highly effective aspect of his game getting opponents off balance and setting up drives and shots for himself.
Young's outside shot was on display on Sunday as he drained 4/10 from 3 (12/20 overall) and hit the key shots down the stretch to help Pitt preserve the victory.
Counteracting Young's huge wingspan, excellent athleticism and developing shooting skills is the fact that he's somewhat mechanical with his ball handling and offensive game.
Young has been projected as a late first rounder for most of the season, and his tourney performance so far has definitely boosted his stock, currently 14 (late lotto in the mock) but it will likely take a big finish and possibly a Pitt title or a run to the title game to give him a legit shot at cracking the lottery with a stampede of unexpected prospects potentially declaring.
Commentators are actually saying Blake Griffin is NOW the obvious #1 pick for this year's draft, but in reality he has been the surefire #1 pick for some time now.
You will remember NBADraft.net has rated Griffin the #1 pick of the 2009 draft since mid January of 2008, nearly a full year and a half before the draft, and nearly a full year before any of the competition rated him there.
He's the best player in the country, and he's playing up to it, raising his level of play through two games in the tourney averaging 30.5 ppg, 15 rpg, on (78%) 25/32 shooting.
Griffin is so focused he will not be baited into a fight, which opponents appear to be fully aware of, as they routinely take cheap shots at him and play him overaggressive as sort of a "Shaq like" defense mechanism. This partially explains the shady late game flip by a Todd Bozeman coached post player Ameer Ali.
Ali must have figured what worked for DeJuan Blair on Hasheem Thabeet would work for him on Griffin as he pulled the same maneuver only in a deadball situation with no basketball involved.
Blake has too much to lose right now as a blow up and subsequent brawl would cost him a game's suspension and media scrutiny about his lack of poise and maturity. But should that type of treatment continue at the next level, have mercy on the player on the receiving end when Griffin finally snaps and makes an example of someone.
Williams game has made huge strides this season. His numbers on the year show the impressive versatility he possesses: 12.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg, and 5 apg. He's also averaging close to 40% from 3, an aspect of his game that before this season was a major weakness: outside shooting, has vastly improved.
The Louisville Siena match up turned into the "Terrence Williams show" as he single handedly took the game over. With 8 minutes left in their second round match up with Siena, down by 4 (63-59) it was Williams' heroics which helped Louisville retake control of the game.
Williams scored in close to the basket and then after a few scoreless possessions for both teams hit a three pointer to recapture the lead. Louisville would never trail again as their defense held tight and they quickly built a 5 point lead and cruised to victory.
TWill's game high 24 pts (9/14 fg) and 15 rebounds speaks to his added maturity and shows that he's able to step up in big games. He is making a strong push to be one of, if not, the top senior selected in this year's draft, and if he's able to lead Louisville to the title, it would enhance his draft stock further.
Wayne Ellington 6-5 190 SG North Carolina Jr.
The "Duke" of the NCAA tourney, Ellington has been as smooth as his namesake showing off one of the sweetest strokes on the college level. He has knocked down 20 of 32 shots (63%) after two games averaging 24 points, he also totaled 7 assists and 11 boards over the two games. He will look to continue his hot streak as North Carolina looks to advance to the Final Four.
Ellington failed to guarantee a spot for himself in the first round last year after declaring early and competing in the Orlando predraft camp. He had a solid though unspectacular showing but measured 6'5 in shoes with a 6'7 wingspan, which is bigger than he appears.
Ellington has a lot to gain by North Carolina advancing to the Final Four and potentially winning it all. The end of the first round is sure to get crowded, but a strong performance out of him and a national championship would give him a great chance of claiming a spot.
Thornton used an excellent tourney performance (55 points in 2 games, 54% fg) to open scouts eyes.
He carried an upstart LSU team into the second round of the tournament where they hung with North Carolina for 30 plus minutes. At times Thornton was absolutely deadly, knocking down 3 pointers with just an inch of daylight.
He also was sensational in their first round win over Butler scoring 30 points on 10-15 shooting (3/4 from 3) in a 4 point win.
His shot is pure and he has done an excellent job rounding out his game. He can score off the dribble, pulling up, he can spot up, and he can also post players up and utilize his great body strength. He's also become a solid defender, although he'll have to work twice as hard with a size disadvantage in the NBA.
Thornton has been inching closer to the late first/early second round area for the past couple months. Despite being an undersized shooting guard, scouts don't rule him out as a guy who could potentially play himself into the late first round with great workouts.
Ed Davis 6-9 230 PF North Carolina Fr.
Davis has become the Tar Heels most important player off the bench. His shot blocking ability and rebounding give them a big boost when starters Tyler Hansbrough or Deon Thompson grab a breather. Davis is having an excellent tourney averaging 12 ppg, 77% fg, 6 rpg and 3 bpg.
Davis is still raw and needs another year to bulk up and improve his skills, but the potential he is showing is incredibly intriguing. His length, athleticism and potential to add strength gives him a lot of promise. Although he's more of a shot blocker, (his 2 blocks per game came in just 18.9 mpg) his soft touch and relentless attacking of the rim is reminiscent of a young Amare Stoudemire (without the strength).
It would be a big mistake for him to leave this year as although he's a lock first rounder, odds are he would be a late first rounder (15-25), whereas returning to UNC would give him a chance to be a top 3-5 pick next year. Davis is currently projected as the #3 pick in the 2010 draft.
A strong case could be made that Aldrich has had the strongest single game performance of anyone in Kansas' second round game against Dayton as he registered a triple double the hard way with 10 blocks including 13 points and 20 boards!
He also played extremely well in the Jayhawks opening game against North Dakota State registering 23 points and 13 boards.
The Kansas bigman has a 7-5 wingspan allowing him to play much bigger than 6-10 and also giving him a great chance to play center at the NBA level.
Aldrich has shown excellent development in his sophomore year and would have a good chance to be a lottery pick if he entered the draft this year. He would benefit by returning to KU and further developing his post moves, however he may find it difficult to turn down a guaranteed spot, and bolt.
Stanley Robinson 6-8 220 SF UConn Jr.
Robinson has long been a guy that just never could seem to maximize his abilities. He's a world class athlete with ridiculous length but struggles with consistency and focus. So far he's been tearing it up for the Huskies averaging 18 ppg over 2 games on 56% shooting.
Robinson is a player who translates well to the next level but will need to develop his skills. He currently struggles with his shot, thriving on his athleticism crashing the boards, however he is showing some signs of developing his midrange game.
So far the games have been blowouts for UConn, so it will be interesting to see how Robinson does against more formidable competition such as Robbie Hummel and Purdue, and a Memphis team looming in the Elite Eight. Robinson is said to be a guy that will look to enter the draft this year, although returning for his senior year would give him a good shot at being a first rounder.
Made a Name for Themselves
Woodside scored a tourney high 37 points in their first round match up with Kansas. He's a gutsy point guard with solid speed and excellent scoring ability.
He may lack the size (5'11) and athleticism to make it at the next level but he's sure to get some looks in workouts and draft camps after putting on a show leading his North Dakota State team into the dance in their first year eligible, and their first round loss to Kansas.
Cedric Jackson 6-3 185 PG Cleveland St. Sr.
Jackson's regular season statistics are very modest at just over 10 ppg, however he's got excellent size and athleticism for the position and shows the ability to defend and run a team. He stepped up huge, outplaying highly regarded Jeff Teague, making all the necessary plays to keep Wake Forest from getting back into the game in their first round match up.
While Jackson still has work to do on his game, his weakness (outside shooting) is something that a team may look at as correctable and take a flyer on him in the second round.
Ronald Moore 5-11 175 PG Siena Jr.
Moore gave everyone two "shining moments" against Ohio State with his last second 3 pointer to tie the game in OT, and then his deja vu, top of the key 3 pointer (with 12 seconds left) to take a 2 point lead and clinch the win in double OT. Moore will go down in University of Siena lore after producing the biggest shots of the tourney thus far.
Moore unfortunately came back to Earth in round 2 against Louisville scoring just 3 points on 1-10 shooting. He's a scrappy, diminutive point guard but currently not highly regarded as an NBA prospect due to being undersized and under skilled.
But we're sure to see more of Moore, just as the nets are being cut down in Detroit (in the one shining moment segment).
Harden was one of the big losers suffering two damaging tourney performances with so much at stake. In two games he shot a combined 3-18 (16%) giving critics fuel for the fire regarding his NBA deficiencies.
Against Syracuse, he was far too unassertive for the team leader and star that the Sun Devils rely on him to be. He's highly unselfish, allowing the game to come to him, but against Syracuse's collapsing zone, Harden needed to force the action sooner and take over.
The biggest knocks against Harden from NBA scouts are the fact that he struggles to go right, and his lack of quickness and ability to score against elite level athletes.
Harden is still high on many scout's lists although some feel he's fallen into the 6-12 range as opposed to a top 5 pick as he's currently projected on our mock draft.
It should be noted that Arizona State's talent outside of Harden and Jeff Pendergraph was virtually nonexistent. That lack of talent surrounding them caught up with them as they ran into a well oiled machine in Syracuse with 8 quality D1 players.
Harden remains an intriguing prospect due to his off the charts intangibles and team focus, although sexier picks such as Demar Derozan, Brandon Jennings, Earl Clark, and even Gerald Henderson could potentially overtake him.
Harden has made comments to the effect that he's still undecided about entering this year, but most scouts and insiders feel that was just an initial reaction and that it's a foregone conclusion that he will enter the draft this year.
Before the year, the consensus was that Teague was a talented, young PG with great promise who just needed time to figure out the position.
After leading Wake Forest to a torrid start with wins over both North Carolina and Duke and an 18-1 record including a #1 ranking, Teague was riding a wave of momentum. It appeared as though he was playing too well NOT to declare for the NBA draft this year. But after Wake Forest's colossal collapse, Teague's stock has taken a dramatic hit.
Scouts seem to be all over the board with him as some still see him as a lottery pick while others aren't convinced he's even a lock for the first round anymore, going so far as to say he's been "exposed as a fraud".
He's a smart kid, so although he's still got miles to go in learning how to direct an offense, he has shown the ability to take over games and should improve in his point guard abilities. All three Wake Forest players are said to be likely gone, although Teague appears to be the one still wavering on his decision.
Darren Collison 6-0 180 PG UCLA Sr.
After turning down a surefire spot in the first round in both the 2007 and 2008 drafts, Collison returned to attempt to make the fourth time the charm and erase the bad memories of a disappointing '08 tourney performance. Unfortunately Collison was upstaged by Eric Maynor and then by the Villanova duo of Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher.
Maynor showed what Collison couldn't, the ability to run a team and make plays for others. Maynor used his speed and strength to muscle Collison and blow by him getting the Bruin guard in foul trouble. Collison's teammate Jrue Holiday played well in his absence, scoring a number of key baskets to quell a late VCU rally.
While Collison got the key stop on Maynor on the final play of the game, the big edge went to Maynor 21 points, 7 ast, 2 to, to Collison's 10 pts, 2 ast 3 to, in their highly anticipated first round match up.
In Collison's favor is three final four appearances, incredibly efficient statistics and an NBA ready game. Will it be enough to get in the first round? It will likely depend on how many underclassmen declare.
As usual, I agree with most of what Aran Smith says. I think his analysis of players is usually on the money. I'm glad he placed Harden on his Falling list, because I believe he's very overrated.
However, I'm constantly amazed at comments made about guys like Steve Nash, and another player named Ben Woodside. Aran wrote, "He may lack the size (5'11) and athleticism to make it at the next level .........."
I never saw Ben Woodside play until the NCAA Tournament, but I watched him do what Steve Nash does every day in the NBA. He went around extremely athletic Kansas defenders as if they were locked in cement.
My brother and I always ask each other this question. If Steve Nash isn't athletic, how does he constantly drive around some of the quickest athletes on the planet, while making them look as if they're standing still? In some ways, Ben Woodside reminded me a little of Steve Nash and I just knew that lack of athleticism comment would come up.
Just a thought,
Come draft workouts, do you think Harden will accept matchups versus players like Henderson and Tyreke Evans? I think he could get schooled if he does, but I think he could also drop if he doesn't play with them because GMs are going to worry too much about his lack of quickness and overreliance on his not so perfect jumper. Also, great article, and I bet Aldrich comes out because I highly doubt his hometown Wolves will pass up on him. They can get a guard or 2 later on because there are so many of them.
I don't really agree with how Hardens draft stock is declining. Ya i saw his two attrocious games in the tourny, but look at the team he has around him. Its not the easiest to score on a zone when the only other threat on your team is in foul trouble the entire game. I think he is a smart player who lets the game come to him, maybe a little too much.. personally im hoping his stock falls so the raptors can grab him. That is exactly the player they need, and for anyone to take henderson or 'my name is earl' over harden would be making a huge mistake.
p.s. thabeat is a stiff
I'm continually amazed at how nbadraft.net completely ignores the Purdue Boilermakers. Jajuan johnson had an amazing night(22 pts, 6 rebs and 2 crucial blocks towards the end) against the 4th seeded Washington and his name is not even mentioned in this article. There are profile pages for at least one player on all of the remaining teams in the sweet sixteen except for the Boilermakers. I think it's time that they get some recognition. Hopefully, after the UConn game, which I think will be a lot closer than most people think it will be, Jajuan Johnson, E'Twaun Moore or Robbie Hummel will get a nod from Aran Smith.
I am a big time Purdue fan and do not think The Big 3 for Purdue has much of a shot in the NBA. Rob is not athletic enough but can catch and shoot as good as anyone in college. ETwaun is not a pro guard. JJ is the man and has the best chance to be a role player in the NBA. All 3 should stay 4 years, which is great for Purdue and myself.
Good article but I'm sorry aran, I feel Collison is a first round lock. There's no way nba execs could let a player of his caliber, with his 4-year resume, a taller breven knight type, efficient, nearly mistake free pt guard slip out the 1st round. That would be catastrophic. I don't see him as a top notch starting point guard, but definitely a solid bench player. Yeah he has a couple of things in his game he needs to work on but who doesn't. I see him probably going in the 15-25 range. I think private workouts may increase his stock as nba execs and gm's realize his game is nba ready now and you know what your getting as compared to some other unknowns that might put their name in. This same thing happened with Brandon Rush last yr, gm's knew he would come in the league immediately and fill a certain role which eliminated some of the risk in taking him.
I see this column was posted before Tyreke's outburst last night, however even before then he is not getting enough credit on this site. 26? He'll be a lottery pick for sure with a chance to land in the top 10, as high as 5.
The end of the first round is sure to get crowded, but a strong performance out of him and a national championship would give him a great chance of claiming a spot.
That would be catastrophic. I don't see him as a top notch starting point guard, but definitely a solid bench player. Yeah he has a couple of things in his game he needs to work on but who doesn't. I see him probably going in the 15-25 range. I think private workouts may increase his stock as nba execs and gm's realize his game is nba ready now and you know what your getting as compared to some other unknowns that might put their name in. mirc , sohbet This same thing happened with Brandon Rush last yr, gm's knew he would come in the league immediately and fill a certain role which eliminated some of the risk in taking him.
That would be catastrophic. I don't see him as a top notch starting point guard, but definitely a solid bench player. Yeah he has a couple of things in his game he needs to work on but who doesn't.travesti
I'm constantly amazed at comments made about guys like Steve Nash, and another player named Ben Woodside. Aran wrote, "He may lack the size (5'11) and athleticism to make it at the next level." I never saw Ben Woodside play until the NCAA Tournament, but I watched him do what Steve Nash does every day in the NBA. He went around extremely athletic Kansas defenders as if they were locked in cement.
The end of the first round is sure to get crowded, but a strong performance out of him and a national championship would give him a great chance of claiming a spot.ed hardy
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