taking a look at the rookie ladder...
if they told you kemba was gonna gonna be given 29-30 mins a game for the cats, would have you predicted better stats than?:
13ppg 39%-35%-78% , 4 rebs , 3.6 assist , 1 steal , 2 tos
yes or no?
I'm going to say no. Expectations vary, and I wasn't in love with Kemba, to begin with.
HOWEVER. In his defense, his number's aren't that bad. His assist/to ratio seems bad, but is actually only 2nd behind Rubio (in qualifying rookies; who play over 20 mpg). He also has the lowest TO/48min among Rookie Point Guards playing at least 20mpg.
He's 8th in scoring (per48) among rookies, while actually 3rd per 48 among rookies who play at least 20mpg.
Among ALL PG's (rookie, or not) he's 13th (per48). Better than players such as: Lowry, Holiday, Chalmers, etc.
The only REAL startling number that should jump out at you is his FG% at .360. Eek. Which happens to be last among ALL PG's, league wide.
His FT% is middle of the pack, as is his 3PT%.
Taking into account his surrounding cast.. Expectations shouldn't be that high in the first place.
No, he's a rookie
i don't know who really expected kemba to be better than that. especially as a rookie. he's doing just fine. yes, his shooting percentage is too low, but that's a combination of factors i.e. he's a rookie and has never dealt with this level of competition, his shot selection has never been that great to begin with, his team sucks so the degree of difficulty on his shots is higher since no one on the bobcats consistently demands a double team, etc., etc., etc. dude only shot 43% his senior year in college. guys don't usually shoot a better percentage in the pros than they did in college. as much as i hate sabermetrics, that's just a fact. the competition in the nba, where nearly everyone was the best or most talented player on their college squad is NOT AT ALL like outdueling shelvin mack.
i would've projected kemba as the second coming of ben gordon. i still think that's his ceiling. his basement is a healthy (and quicker) dajuan wagner. or maybe eddie house. i never saw star with the dude and would be surprised if he became one (ben gordon hasn't and he's had some good years, y'know before he joined my squad the pistons *sigh*...) but he can become a 20ppg scorer and/or one of those microwave types that shoot their team in(and out) of games. he was a never a true point or great ballhandler/distributor so his assist numbers are right on line (he only averaged 4.5 dimes his last year in college and actually averaged more rebounds (5.4) than assists.) kemba's a work in progress. he can become a better version of what he is as a rook, but unless he radically upgrades his skill-set what you see is exactly what you're gonna get (with a better shooting %'s, i hope.)
In all honesty this is about exactly what I predicted he would be getting at this point in the season considering his surrounding cast. I expected numbers similar to his sophomore year at UConn. The only part of his stats that are off from my projections in his FG% but not by much. I didn't think he was going to shoot a high FG% abd thought it was going to be around 39%-41% but I did think he was going to shoot around 40% from 3 I dunno why but I felt like he was going to be more comfortable taking 3's then mid range shots in the league.
But overall his stats are about right where I expected them too be for a few reasons. First off he started the season sharing the backcourt with Augustin so a lot of the times he was in the game he had SG guarding him which I knew would give him trouble. And right now he's the Bobcats only scoring threat with Henderson and Augustine out so defenses are making it very hard for him. And he was never a great shooter, he was always a streaky shooter so it's not surprising to see him struggle.
But with that said I do expect him to improve after the All Star break. His final number's should be closer to 15 ppg on 40% shooting.
He's a rookie, there are alot of people who watch college ball, that don't have alot of knowledge on transitioning from college to the NBA and think when a player is killing in the NCAA like Kemba did, they are going to go right into the league and dominate.
Prime example Jimmer Freddette, even people who had basketball sense thought he was going to dominate, and he is doing no such thing, because the NBA is a different monster, and while basketball is basketball, your playing against the elitest of the elite night in night out, your playing against grown men who have to feed their family,grown men who have to make basketball work, etc.
The NBA is something different and while Kemba dominated college and yes I was a Kemba fan and thought he was better than Fredette, I knew his first year his shortcomings would catch up to him in the NBA. His height,lack of strength,lack of explosive leaping ability,short arms, and spotty jumpshot, would all play a factor into him not being able to do what he could do in college.
But I also knew with his speed,quickness,crazy ball handling ability, and ability to create something out of nothing he would be a top rookie,which he still is.
I think Kemba is actually playing better than he's supposed to you look at that draft and tell me a year ago he would be top 3 in scoring, you'd be lying to yourself, most people would have said these players over Kemba:
And possibly for the basketball guru's of the world they probably would have said Marshon Brooks as well.
Kemba is right on track, with more strength and better knowledge of the game he will be dynamite.
So No, I think Kemba is fine and is a little ahead of the curve.
No... There has never been any evidence of him being an efficient player.. He was the same way in college...
No, I think his numbers right now are actually about right given his situation. The Bobcats don't have alot of scorers, so there are alot of shots to be had, which means his FG% isnt going to be that impressive right away, and as somebody mentioned, he isnt exactly shy about shooting. His assist numbers are never going to be that high imo, because he is more of a scoring PG than a facilitator.
I think with his playing style, he would be best suited as an instant offense off the bench type player ala Lou Wiliams or Jason Terry. which isnt a knock on him at all, becasue that role has become incredibly important to teams nowadays.
No, this is about what I expected. His shooting percentage was just too mediocre in college to really expect him to be some great scorer in the NBA. The only thing I didn't expect was him to be playing this many minutes. Brandon Knight is also doing about what I expected him to do.
But don't worry. Shooting is one of the things that generally gets better for players as they get more experience. I think in the transition to the pros there is a lot of testing to see which of your moves work at this level and which don't. So there is a lot "okay, I will try this!" Followed quickly by "sh!t, I guess that move doesn't work against Derek Rose." Later followed by, "But it works just fine against Derek Fisher!" All just part of the learning curve.
Whoops wrong topic. To answer the question though, not really.
Jason Terry was a great comparison. I could see Kemba developing into Jason Terry 2.0. He's definitely a score-first type of PG, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to be a team's first option...so maybe he can be a team's first option off the bench.
In an earlier post like 2 or 3 games into the year, I predicted 15.1 ppf 3.7 rpg 4 apg as his final rookie season averages.
Yes, he's got all the opportunity in the world on Bobcats.
I don't know about the exact numbers, but Walker was the same relatively inefficient SG in a PG's body his Jr. year at UConn. He made big plays and shots, and has the flashy kind of game that makes fans like him, but he's done nothing out of the ordinary considering what he was in college.