[valentine]

Every year, a top 5 draft pick will bust or fall dramatically short of expectations.

If you dont believe me, just sort through previous drafts and its full of guys like Bennett, Waiters, Turner, Beasley.

This year will be no different.

Chances are you’ll get negged, but if thats the sort of thing that matters to you then you’ve probably got bigger problems in your life to sort through.

I’ll start….and Im going with Karl Towns. We’re talking about using a #1 pick with this guy, so with that comes future hall-of-fame expectations.

In today’s NBA, I just dont see him being anything other than a solid big-man.

Instead of ridiculing my choice, show some cajones and predict your TOP 5 BUST of the 2015 draft.

 

[zer0d0ubt]

 You seem to be assuming that the top 5 is set in stone or something. 

It’s not.

 

 

 

[zer0d0ubt]

 You seem to be assuming that the top 5 is set in stone or something. 

It’s not.

 

 

 

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 Andrew Harrison and Dakari Johnson can still sneak in….

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 Andrew Harrison and Dakari Johnson can still sneak in….

[drk3351Participant]

Assuming top 5 is Towns, Mudiay, Russell, Okafor, Porzingis…

Best chance to bust Okafor and Porzingis imo.

 

 

[drk3351Participant]

Assuming top 5 is Towns, Mudiay, Russell, Okafor, Porzingis…

Best chance to bust Okafor and Porzingis imo.

 

 

[Andrew1984Participant]

I won’t get into top five or not, but my biggest bust candidates in the top half of the first round are Justise Winslow, Trey Lyles, and Kelly Oubre. 

It’s hard to call anyone drafted beyond the first 18 picks or so a bust, because expectations are not particularly high for those selections anyway. 

 

[Andrew1984Participant]

I won’t get into top five or not, but my biggest bust candidates in the top half of the first round are Justise Winslow, Trey Lyles, and Kelly Oubre. 

It’s hard to call anyone drafted beyond the first 18 picks or so a bust, because expectations are not particularly high for those selections anyway. 

 

[nill650Participant]

 yep all resonable estimations, regarding the three prospects you mention…esp if you are going on what you saw in college where lyles who was not utilized to his strengths in ky because towns and wcs owned the paint…gets a pass as many assume that equates to he is better than he played in college…

winslow could be a future all star but i think to crack the top 5 the anticipation would be too high if that is what the team that drafted him expects and demands. esp with others like hezonia projected later that are devalued playing overseas but whos games "look" farther along and much more allstar worthy.

oubre looks like bust material but i think he’s the one who will not bust on your list…i expect booker,okafor and payne are all way overvalued right now but only time will tell

 

 

[nill650Participant]

 yep all resonable estimations, regarding the three prospects you mention…esp if you are going on what you saw in college where lyles who was not utilized to his strengths in ky because towns and wcs owned the paint…gets a pass as many assume that equates to he is better than he played in college…

winslow could be a future all star but i think to crack the top 5 the anticipation would be too high if that is what the team that drafted him expects and demands. esp with others like hezonia projected later that are devalued playing overseas but whos games "look" farther along and much more allstar worthy.

oubre looks like bust material but i think he’s the one who will not bust on your list…i expect booker,okafor and payne are all way overvalued right now but only time will tell

 

 

[zer0d0ubt]

 Mudiay and Russell by far. By bust I mean players who won’t live up to their draft position, by not making a significant positive overall impact on their teams. 

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were barely missed, for instance, and Lillard gives up almost as much on defense as he contributes on offense.

A top 5 pick should really move the needle, not just put up numbers. And Mudiay might not even put up numbers.

 

 

[zer0d0ubt]

 Mudiay and Russell by far. By bust I mean players who won’t live up to their draft position, by not making a significant positive overall impact on their teams. 

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were barely missed, for instance, and Lillard gives up almost as much on defense as he contributes on offense.

A top 5 pick should really move the needle, not just put up numbers. And Mudiay might not even put up numbers.

 

 

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 But Andrew Harrison will definitely put up numbers. Mudiay and Russel obviously don’t even have a chance in this league, but Andrew Harrison will definitely be a mix of Kobe, MJ, and Lebron and dominate the whole league while Russel will be a bench player in the D-League playing 4 minutes at most, and Mudiay will be the ball boy for the New York Knicks. Man, you really know what you’re talking about. Or am I misunderstanding every single post you’ve posted on here?

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 But Andrew Harrison will definitely put up numbers. Mudiay and Russel obviously don’t even have a chance in this league, but Andrew Harrison will definitely be a mix of Kobe, MJ, and Lebron and dominate the whole league while Russel will be a bench player in the D-League playing 4 minutes at most, and Mudiay will be the ball boy for the New York Knicks. Man, you really know what you’re talking about. Or am I misunderstanding every single post you’ve posted on here?

[zer0d0ubt]

 If you were intelligent enough to understand nuance, you would remember that I’ve told you repeatedly that Andrew Harrison is merely better VALUE than Mudiay, if drafted in the late first-second round.

Then you might recall that I said it would be smarter for a team in the top 5 to draft a big, and then draft a combo guard in the second round.

Now, since you still can’t juggle nuance in your head, you’ll just make more straw man arguments and distort what I said so you don’t have to process the nuance.

And then you’ll keep stalking me in every thread I post in out of anger for your inability to process nuance.

 

 

 

 

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 I don’t stalk you… I look at all the forums, then I find the one that is most out there that only a 6 yr old that only watches Kentucky games and think it’s Dakari and Andrew vs the world would ever say about the NBA. Then I think to myself ¨hmm…. That must be zer0d0ubt¨ Then I look at the name and would you look at that! It was you. It’s pretty easy to find you when you’re on every forum topic saying the dumbest things.

[zer0d0ubt]

 You lie. Every time you see my name next to a post you bring up Andrew Harrison and/or call me stupid. Every. Single. Time.

Lay off the thread stalking and accept different opinions, especially when they’re explained clearly and repeatedly to you. And don’t accept the May mock drafts as written in stone. 

That way, when somebody questions the eliteness of a top 5 pick, it won’t blow your mind and drive you to obsessive thread stalking.

 

 

  

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 You know what you’re right… I’m sorry, I hope we can still be friends.

[zer0d0ubt]

Most stalkers wish to be friends, but it never works out.

 

 

 

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 This is probably why no one likes you.

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 This is probably why no one likes you.

[zer0d0ubt]

Most stalkers wish to be friends, but it never works out.

 

 

 

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 You know what you’re right… I’m sorry, I hope we can still be friends.

[zer0d0ubt]

 You lie. Every time you see my name next to a post you bring up Andrew Harrison and/or call me stupid. Every. Single. Time.

Lay off the thread stalking and accept different opinions, especially when they’re explained clearly and repeatedly to you. And don’t accept the May mock drafts as written in stone. 

That way, when somebody questions the eliteness of a top 5 pick, it won’t blow your mind and drive you to obsessive thread stalking.

 

 

  

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 I don’t stalk you… I look at all the forums, then I find the one that is most out there that only a 6 yr old that only watches Kentucky games and think it’s Dakari and Andrew vs the world would ever say about the NBA. Then I think to myself ¨hmm…. That must be zer0d0ubt¨ Then I look at the name and would you look at that! It was you. It’s pretty easy to find you when you’re on every forum topic saying the dumbest things.

[zer0d0ubt]

 If you were intelligent enough to understand nuance, you would remember that I’ve told you repeatedly that Andrew Harrison is merely better VALUE than Mudiay, if drafted in the late first-second round.

Then you might recall that I said it would be smarter for a team in the top 5 to draft a big, and then draft a combo guard in the second round.

Now, since you still can’t juggle nuance in your head, you’ll just make more straw man arguments and distort what I said so you don’t have to process the nuance.

And then you’ll keep stalking me in every thread I post in out of anger for your inability to process nuance.

 

 

 

 

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

 I guarentee someone will get super pissed about what zerodoubt says about guys unrelated to the topic and it will derail the thread. Nice going. 

I guess I’ll go with Porzingas. Big guy who can shoot 3s. I’m done being impressed by that. I want my bigs to play inside out and I have a feeling he’ll be a guy that settles too often for outside shots, doesn’t play enough real defense (more than highlight blocks and steals) and just doesn’t make enough of an impact. 

That said, I’d take him if I’m Orlando at 5 and maybe even New York at 4. Because I’m wrong a lot and its a total crap shoot anyways. 

 

 

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

 I guarentee someone will get super pissed about what zerodoubt says about guys unrelated to the topic and it will derail the thread. Nice going. 

I guess I’ll go with Porzingas. Big guy who can shoot 3s. I’m done being impressed by that. I want my bigs to play inside out and I have a feeling he’ll be a guy that settles too often for outside shots, doesn’t play enough real defense (more than highlight blocks and steals) and just doesn’t make enough of an impact. 

That said, I’d take him if I’m Orlando at 5 and maybe even New York at 4. Because I’m wrong a lot and its a total crap shoot anyways. 

 

 

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

 @zerodoubt…your the GM of the wolves…who do you take?

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

 @zerodoubt…your the GM of the wolves…who do you take?

[zer0d0ubt]

 I’d think long and hard about Porzingis with the first pick. Pekovic isn’t a disaster when healthy, and actually compliments Porzingis pretty well. And Dieng may be better at PF than C, but he can play both positions.

With the 31st pick, the Wolves could even possibly draft Porzingis’ teammate Hernangomez, or Dakari, or a more mobile C/PF hybrid like Christmas or Cliff Alexander.

Rubio could get all sorts of shots for Porzingis, and Porzingis would really spread the floor and open up the lane for Wiggins, Rubio, and LaVine to drive to the rim.

But if I was the Wolves, it might make sense to draft Towns, and see what kind of trade offers arise. If they could trade down a spot or two and still get Porzingis, plus another good asset, that would be good business.

 

 

[zer0d0ubt]

 I’d think long and hard about Porzingis with the first pick. Pekovic isn’t a disaster when healthy, and actually compliments Porzingis pretty well. And Dieng may be better at PF than C, but he can play both positions.

With the 31st pick, the Wolves could even possibly draft Porzingis’ teammate Hernangomez, or Dakari, or a more mobile C/PF hybrid like Christmas or Cliff Alexander.

Rubio could get all sorts of shots for Porzingis, and Porzingis would really spread the floor and open up the lane for Wiggins, Rubio, and LaVine to drive to the rim.

But if I was the Wolves, it might make sense to draft Towns, and see what kind of trade offers arise. If they could trade down a spot or two and still get Porzingis, plus another good asset, that would be good business.

 

 

[kobyzParticipant]

 About the knicks pick, it seems like top 3 are set in stone with Townes, Okafor and Russell… and It’s looking that for the fourth pick it’s between Porzingas and Mudiay, they seems to have same ceiling, if it’s between the two knicks should take the one has less bust potential, so who has more bust potential? also one i i wanna know why is winslow under the radar and is not up there in the discussion for the fourth pick? he has a lot of upside imo and might be better for the knicks to take him as he more sure thing…

[kobyzParticipant]

 About the knicks pick, it seems like top 3 are set in stone with Townes, Okafor and Russell… and It’s looking that for the fourth pick it’s between Porzingas and Mudiay, they seems to have same ceiling, if it’s between the two knicks should take the one has less bust potential, so who has more bust potential? also one i i wanna know why is winslow under the radar and is not up there in the discussion for the fourth pick? he has a lot of upside imo and might be better for the knicks to take him as he more sure thing…

[ChoppyParticipant]

 Sometimes a franchise is hamstrung by the strength of the draft. You can’t say in down years that the top pick is going to have HOF potential. How many HOF level players come out of every draft? Occasionally multiple players, but often none or just one. 

Look at 2000 when Kenyon Martin was the top pick. If I remember right there were only 2 players from that draft to play in the All star game. As a GM, who could you have picked from that group that would’ve had HOF potential?

Having said that, if KAT doesn’t have the potential you expect from a top pick, who in this draft does?

My expectations of a top pick are obviously different to yours. I would say a top pick needs to be a cornerstone you can build a contender around. Is KAT that? Does he have that level of potential? IMO probably. 

 

 

 

[ChoppyParticipant]

 Sometimes a franchise is hamstrung by the strength of the draft. You can’t say in down years that the top pick is going to have HOF potential. How many HOF level players come out of every draft? Occasionally multiple players, but often none or just one. 

Look at 2000 when Kenyon Martin was the top pick. If I remember right there were only 2 players from that draft to play in the All star game. As a GM, who could you have picked from that group that would’ve had HOF potential?

Having said that, if KAT doesn’t have the potential you expect from a top pick, who in this draft does?

My expectations of a top pick are obviously different to yours. I would say a top pick needs to be a cornerstone you can build a contender around. Is KAT that? Does he have that level of potential? IMO probably. 

 

 

 

[ChicagoCaseyParticipant]

 KAT. I go w/ him because what you expect out of the number one pick. 

[ChicagoCaseyParticipant]

 KAT. I go w/ him because what you expect out of the number one pick. 

[ph90702]

Jahlil Okafor.  He used his size to dominate in college, and he has no offensive game outside of the paint.  Also, he will not be able to defend the pick and roll.

[ph90702]

Jahlil Okafor.  He used his size to dominate in college, and he has no offensive game outside of the paint.  Also, he will not be able to defend the pick and roll.

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 He won’t be able to defend at all.

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 He won’t be able to defend at all.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 Why so much hate for guys that are living out their dreams and have yet to step on the court to make a debut?

 

SHEESH! Can we at least get past the BIG Day before the f#ckery?

 

 If you ask me; ALL 5 will be busts! They will be busting down checkbooks!

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 Why so much hate for guys that are living out their dreams and have yet to step on the court to make a debut?

 

SHEESH! Can we at least get past the BIG Day before the f#ckery?

 

 If you ask me; ALL 5 will be busts! They will be busting down checkbooks!

[7-9Participant]

Top 5 Bust most likely to be D’Angelo Russell

[7-9Participant]

Top 5 Bust most likely to be D’Angelo Russell

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 Whoever the Kings select, idc they pick 6th. Going to Sacramento is a career killer, shocked Cousins is as good as he is in that organization.

[LovebugParticipant]

As a Kings fan I need to stop reading crap like this. Stop

[LovebugParticipant]

As a Kings fan I need to stop reading crap like this. Stop

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 Trust in Vivek

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 Trust in Vivek

[LovebugParticipant]

No reason not to. Two sides to every story. We need to move beyond that now, allow the organization to get some stability/peace and respect certain fans sensibilities

[LovebugParticipant]

No reason not to. Two sides to every story. We need to move beyond that now, allow the organization to get some stability/peace and respect certain fans sensibilities

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 Whoever the Kings select, idc they pick 6th. Going to Sacramento is a career killer, shocked Cousins is as good as he is in that organization.

[mgreener_34Participant]

 I’m going with Okafor, but I won’t use the term bust to describe how I predict his career. I think any team expecting a Hakeem like scorer on the block is going to be disapointed, and see him having he effectiveness of a prime Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson. An effective 20/10 type of player, but one that you can easily exploit in todays NBA. 

We are seeing this in the NBA more and More, where teams will just play a guy like Festus Ezeli for 10 minutes a game to slow down that player, and then force teams to go small with small-ball lineups. Okafor has looked slow and clunky to me in his workouts, and has even seemed tired. I just can’t imagine him staying on the floor againt a team like OKC, GSW, or HOU.

But I also think we need to understand that he’s only going to be 20 this year, and still has years to improve his body of work and consitioning. It all comes down to how much he wants it 

[zer0d0ubt]

 It’s not as simple as just wanting it. A 270 lb 19 year old is going to naturally get heavier. He’ll be lucky to stay at 280 through his prime, and he probably won’t. More like 285-290, even when in good shape.

It’s just like the guys who always expect Sully to magically get down to 260 lbs or less. It’s never going to happen, even if people declare that it’s just a matter of wanting it.

Sully and Okafor were both even fatter in high school, and that’s the direction they’re going to be pulled in, naturally. Big frames, big bones, genetic facts of their metabolisms.

But being 280-290 could really help Okafor dominate offensively, like Lopez.

 

 

[zer0d0ubt]

 It’s not as simple as just wanting it. A 270 lb 19 year old is going to naturally get heavier. He’ll be lucky to stay at 280 through his prime, and he probably won’t. More like 285-290, even when in good shape.

It’s just like the guys who always expect Sully to magically get down to 260 lbs or less. It’s never going to happen, even if people declare that it’s just a matter of wanting it.

Sully and Okafor were both even fatter in high school, and that’s the direction they’re going to be pulled in, naturally. Big frames, big bones, genetic facts of their metabolisms.

But being 280-290 could really help Okafor dominate offensively, like Lopez.

 

 

[mgreener_34Participant]

 I’m going with Okafor, but I won’t use the term bust to describe how I predict his career. I think any team expecting a Hakeem like scorer on the block is going to be disapointed, and see him having he effectiveness of a prime Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson. An effective 20/10 type of player, but one that you can easily exploit in todays NBA. 

We are seeing this in the NBA more and More, where teams will just play a guy like Festus Ezeli for 10 minutes a game to slow down that player, and then force teams to go small with small-ball lineups. Okafor has looked slow and clunky to me in his workouts, and has even seemed tired. I just can’t imagine him staying on the floor againt a team like OKC, GSW, or HOU.

But I also think we need to understand that he’s only going to be 20 this year, and still has years to improve his body of work and consitioning. It all comes down to how much he wants it 

[nill650Participant]

 The value of a prospect has weight more than fit for teams not in rebuild where they can just trade the prospect, but when a bad team drafts a high risk high reward prospect in the lottery and they don’t fit  well , its usually curtains for the gm and often the player.

wcs also has huge bust potential if he’s picked at 6th to sacremento..he’s a great fit for need on paper and probably their best choice unless mudiay falls But I question Trill ? work ethic…and landing on the kings with all of their bad chemistry would not be a good place for this guy unless he has just been critisized for his dennis rodman impersonations.

Many prospects have failed to "shine" in the league who were overvalued by scouts and some were just drafted into a bad situation. A lot have decent careers but are never allstars …where as prospects picked by decent organizations and with the patience to let them develop mid 1st post lottery have had better careers example jimmi butler taken 30th by the bulls in 2011 is having a stellar career compared to derrick williams drafted 2nd to the timberwolves the same year.

 Jury is still out on any player still in his first stint , but for many when the expectation was too high coming in and they are in a bad situation with an untradable contract, they are out of the league in no time. 

look at undervalued prospects that end up on bad teams : Hassan Whiteside now in miami…played like a top 5 center this season and spent the first part of his pathetic journey in the d-league after going 33rd to the kings in 2010. whats funny about this guy is he was in the green rm on draft night, so he must have had a really lousy agent or really bad workouts if any.

when its all said and done the youngest prospects with the most skills and the highest athleticism are the best gambles.

 

 

 

[nill650Participant]

 The value of a prospect has weight more than fit for teams not in rebuild where they can just trade the prospect, but when a bad team drafts a high risk high reward prospect in the lottery and they don’t fit  well , its usually curtains for the gm and often the player.

wcs also has huge bust potential if he’s picked at 6th to sacremento..he’s a great fit for need on paper and probably their best choice unless mudiay falls But I question Trill ? work ethic…and landing on the kings with all of their bad chemistry would not be a good place for this guy unless he has just been critisized for his dennis rodman impersonations.

Many prospects have failed to "shine" in the league who were overvalued by scouts and some were just drafted into a bad situation. A lot have decent careers but are never allstars …where as prospects picked by decent organizations and with the patience to let them develop mid 1st post lottery have had better careers example jimmi butler taken 30th by the bulls in 2011 is having a stellar career compared to derrick williams drafted 2nd to the timberwolves the same year.

 Jury is still out on any player still in his first stint , but for many when the expectation was too high coming in and they are in a bad situation with an untradable contract, they are out of the league in no time. 

look at undervalued prospects that end up on bad teams : Hassan Whiteside now in miami…played like a top 5 center this season and spent the first part of his pathetic journey in the d-league after going 33rd to the kings in 2010. whats funny about this guy is he was in the green rm on draft night, so he must have had a really lousy agent or really bad workouts if any.

when its all said and done the youngest prospects with the most skills and the highest athleticism are the best gambles.

 

 

 

[anthony_DavIS23Participant]

I feel like D’Angelo Russell could be a bust… he is touted as an elite shooter and passer – which is true and will likely translate to the NBA. However, what other elite skills does he possess? he struggles scoring at the rim, he doesn’t draw fouls (two things his comparisons James Harden and Ginobili are elite at). He’s also has mediocre athleticism and ball handling. I do feel as though he has been overrated due to inflated stats with a lack of good teammates. Don’t get me wrong, i still feel as though he can be successful role player or sixth man but i cant see him becoming the superstar many expect him to.

[anthony_DavIS23Participant]

I feel like D’Angelo Russell could be a bust… he is touted as an elite shooter and passer – which is true and will likely translate to the NBA. However, what other elite skills does he possess? he struggles scoring at the rim, he doesn’t draw fouls (two things his comparisons James Harden and Ginobili are elite at). He’s also has mediocre athleticism and ball handling. I do feel as though he has been overrated due to inflated stats with a lack of good teammates. Don’t get me wrong, i still feel as though he can be successful role player or sixth man but i cant see him becoming the superstar many expect him to.

[Author]

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