When will teams stop overpaying so much?
There is an alarming trend going on around the league regarding the absurdity of the contracts being given out. Teams in sports have overpaid players for as long as we can remember, but this the NBA has taken that concept to a different level this off-season. Looking around the league there have been a plethora of a guys who have gotten flat out overpaid, guys who you look at and say, "He got that much?! Now I have nothing against guys getting their money, I want every player to go after every opportunity they can, as long as they do it with class. I hold nothing against Omer Asik or Jeremy Lin for signing huge contracts this off-season, they took advantage of the situation, and capitilized.
But at the same time, owners are handing out 8 figure yearly salaries like it's candy. There are so many guys that got ridiculous money, and the fact is that since these guys got the money they did, there's going to be several other players lining up to get their money. Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, and Roy Hibbert each got Max deals. A 12 and 9 center, a 20 and 3 center that doesn't play injured, and an oft-injured guard that can drop 20 a night. Hibbert, Lopez and Gordon are all great players in their own right, don't get me wrong, but the fact that these guys got max deals will have several other guys in line for huge pay days of their own. Tyreke Evans has been dissapointing since his rookie season, but he still averaged 17 ppg, but he hasn't shown the imrpovement or any clear defined position. If he has the same year this year htat he did last season, he's still getting at least 50 million, whether he's worth it or not. DeMarcus Cousins has been a beast, and will certainly get a max deal when his time comes. James Harden is also getting a max unless he takes a discount to stay in OKC. Ibaka is going to get at least 10 mil per year, considering that DeAndre Jordan is getting 4 years 40 mil, Javale McGee is getting 5 years 50 mil, and Asik just got paid 3 years 25. If Ibaka shows even mroe offensive improvement this season, or he has a huge post-season, don't be surprised to see a crazy max deal either. If Eric Gordon got a max deal, than so will Brandon Jennings. Steph Curry is getting 40 mil+ and possibly even more if his ankle is fine. Some more names that will get big deals if only because players will similar production did: Jrue Holiday(He came out and said he wants one) Derrick Favors(He has potential, might not get to show much of it in Utah, but as long as he doesn't fall off, someone will give him big money) Greg Monroe(max) Ty Lawson, Kyle Lowry, Darren Collison(more like 25-30 mil, but still too much), and many more.
But the thing that's even more worrying is guys like Ersan Ilyasova getting 5 years 45 million, or Kris Humphris getting 2 years 24 million, or Jameer Nelson getting 3 years 20 million. All three of these guys are overpaid by at least 30%. Nelson is a 30 year old poin guard that has declined sharply over the past couple years, and averaged 11 and 5 this past season. You're gonna give an 11 and 5 guy almost 7 million per year?! No wonder Dwight wants out. Same with J-Rich last year, he's a shooting guard on the decline and they still gave him 6-7 mil per year, and just one year after they signed him they're trying to get rid of him. Humphries is a nice double-double guy, but 12 million!? I'd take 2006 Haslem over him every day of the week and he barely got half of the money Humphries just got. Ilyasova is anice stretch 4, whom we all know is really 28 or 29 years old but is listed at 25. He averaged 13 and 9, shows signs of some improvement, but 9 million for 5 years!!!?? Are you crazy?! You have to sign Jennings, and you give him the 5 year deal, and sign him for 5 whole years!? You're setting up averaged players for 8-10 million dollar per year deals, there will be dozens of guys clamoring for money like that over the next couple of years.
And the one that infuriates me is Jason Thompson. I like him, don't get me wrong, but 9 and 7, regressing after his first two seasons, and you give him 5 years 30 milllion?! Just because he had a nice run at the end of the season. If he didn't have that 10 game stretch where he went bonkers, we'd be looking at a 3 year 11 million dollar deal.
Let me reiterate that I have nothing against guys getting paid, I applaud guys for taking full advantage of their window of opportunity, but at the same time, do we realize that if GMs keep up this pace of signing ridiculous deals, that in 3-4 years that we're gonna be in a situation where 80% of the teams are strapped in the luxary cap, and the onwers are crying that they're losing money and we're gonna go through anohter lockout in 2017 all over again.
The salary cap isn't going to go up drastically, and the luxary tax is only going to get more punitive, and we're going to see more NY-Houston-Lin scenarios, and sooner or later almost every team is going to be in debt.
Now I'm very curious to see how things are going to be 3 years down the road, I predict we'll see a world where poor Ryan Anderson can't find anything more than the MLE because teams simply can't offer any more money. We'll see how it goes, but it'll definatly make it harder to sign free agents in 2k, lol.
Edit:Just read Javale got a 4 year 44 million dollar deal, still a lot of cash.
They won't especially since fans tend to side with owners against players about money. Right now teams don't get hurt as much for spending money but players do.
Also McGee contract makes more sense because he is a big. Big men tend to get big contracts. That has been going for decades. McGee is long and athletic and played well in the playoff this past year. You could argue that his value to most teams could be more than players like Joe Johnson, or some other second tier players.
The Market is what it is. The players have the talent that the owners need, and there will be bidding wars. Most free agents tend to get more than their value. Restricted free agents even more so.
In the long run, what will determine a good front office is not only signing the right players for the right money, but also having the ability to unload heavy contracts on other teams. It's really a game of hot potato. It does not matter who signs the high contract. It just matters who gets stuck with it when it goes untradeable. Like Orlando and Hedo.
Under the new CBA things really won't be too much different. The numbers will adjust a little. More rookie contracts will be taken over Vet minimums, but in the end the stars will make a killing, and the workhorses will make less than they used to, but much more than I ever will. The guys in the middle might be able to fool someone in the short term. But when they don't live up to the pay cheque, they have no control over where they end up.
Supply and demand, not a lot of supply/a lot of demand = players getting overpaid.....That Javale contract is ridiculous
It's all about supply and demand, there is a huge demand for bigmen in the league but there aren't a lot of good bigmen around so teams will vastly overpay for one, look at Roy hibbert, omer asik, and javale McGee's contract
People may stop getting overpaid if there were an equal amount of big men (7 footers) who are decently atheltic and can play well. Currently there are a limited number of quality big men and that's why teams overpay to get one. I mean just last year, DeAndre Jordan getting $10 million a year is ridiculous...plus in the playoffs they took him out in the fourth for a smaller lineup. Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin got more of the minutes in the crunch than him...it's confusing.
The problem in my opinon is that each individual targets some players and gives them head and shoulders beyond their worth to ensure that they will get that certain player, and that has happened with almost every single player this off-season, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
And I understand that Bigmen will always get mroe than guards, however my problem is with average players getting big time money which sets a precendence for other average players to go after the same amount of money.
of the market work. I never understood why these great purveyors of the free market system need a cap anyway. Besides that though when u think about the 5 million dollar mid level exeption is only 1/12 of the salary cap. Beasley got 6 million a year, you could have 10 of those guys and dont owe a dime in tax. If a guy feels he is a starter then he is gonna want at least 8 million and he's right. All things being equal that would be a 40 million dollar line up and a 18 million dollar bench.
Lin and Asik will only count 8 a year from Rockets and thats not really that bad. I remember when Ike gave Jerome James 36 million because he was okay in like 6 playoff games. Everyone is down on Lin but its not like he got Dragic type money. Dragic is better to me but Lowry at 5 (almost 1/2 Dragic) is way better (value).
All this will stop in like 3 years or they will redo the CBA away from a hard cap because they will hate giving the Bobcats all that money.
If your starters are averaging $8M each, you can pay your bench players an average of $2.5M and never break the cap. However, it gets much more tricky with max contracts for veterans. Once you begin paying 1-3 players $12-20M, everything else gets difficult. Still, if you split $30M between your top two players, that leaves you with $30M between 11-12 other guys for an average of nearly $3M each. As long as you have 3-4 youngsters on non-lotto rookie deals ($1M each), you can have a very good supporting cast with several players on mid-level money.
That said, the overpaying we've been seeing is partly caused by the market and partly caused by short-sighted GMs. The situation is exaggerated further by the amnesty candy that's giving additional momentary flexibility. Several of these teams are putting themselves into a serious bind in the next 2-4 years by the deals they're doing today. In two years I think we'll see a serious increase in teams trading valued assets + a bad contract in order to shed cap-cracking contracts.
Good point on Lin and Asik. They aren't really overpaid per say, it's just they poison pilled the contract to force their current team to let them walk.
James Jones contract was so terrible, it was like a small version of Rashard Lewis's deal, you just knew he wouldn't live up to it. Granted I didn't expect him to play so terribly when he went to NY .
I fully agree, the thing that gets me is that pay for the potential or ceiling of a players standard. Players are just like draft picks - they all don't turn out good. These contracts are paying for best case scenerio. What about worse case scenerio ? What if Eric Gordon still misses heaps of games ? What if Steph Curry's ankle is still a problem ?
the JaVale McGee contract isn't anywhere near as insane as Omer Asik's or DeAndre Jordan's
I hate the whole you have to overpay for a good center argument. The team that just won the title didn't even play a real center. I know that team had Lebron, Wade, & Bosh but the point is still the same, the team with the best overall collection of players will win. When the Mavericks beat the Heat, it wasn't solely because they had a center like Chandler, but the fact that they had the best overall team. Even though the Heat had 3 out of the top 4 players, Dallas might have had the next 6 best players (Terry, Kidd, Chandler, Marion, Barea, Stevenson in some order)
My point is this, take a look at the recent centers who have been overpaid based on "potential" or a good playoff series or decent season. I think this list is comprised of Biedrins, Bogut, Noah, Chandler, M.Gasol, Nene, Deandre Jordan. Besides a few good games or highlights, what have they really done to push their teams over the top? Absolutely nothing. That's not even mentioning contracts given out to the likes of Kwame Brown, Darko, Channing Frye, Joel Anthony, Johan Petro. Don't even get me started on Erick Dampier, Eddie Curry, Jerome James, etc
Preach man, preach. I've been saying this all summer now.
The only teams in the last couple decades that could win without a dominate big man were Chicago Bulls, the 04 Pistons and this years Miami Heat (who suprisingly enough beat a Thunder team that doesn't have a dominate big... so this yr was going to count no matter what). The Mavs had Tyson Chandler who is a top level Center in this league. Only 3 teams have done it, the odds are pointing towards it... you NEED bigs.
Now with recent rule changes w/ handchecking and such it is becoming more of a guards league. I will definetely give you that, but I'm not sold that it's there yet. You can't teach 7 foot, it's that simple. No matter how hard Chris Paul works on his post game he will never be able to guard a Center. Centers get overpaid because of their height not their production and that won't change. If a guard and a big are the same quality of player then the big will get more money and I don't see how that can ever change.
They reflect a players value in the market(not their talent on a basketball court) when teams have the right of first refusal on restricted free agents(basically think about how you can get a player from another team if that team has the right to match any contract you get the player you want to sign). In turn the market is effected by individual team needs, the amount of cash available due to salary cap rules, the players available, and in some part the skill of agents in representing their clients and facilitating player movement (in that an agent convcing a team to spend will have an effect on future markets... especially if they convince someone to go into the tax).
Teams are starting to sign players to shorter contracts. 3 instead of 4 years 4 years instead of 5 years. For the top talent though, the money is not changing, less garunteed years means that teams face less repercussions for their stupid decisions and that player movement will increase, but it doesn't mean that players would be paid less... the only way that is going to happen is if the salary cap drops... but its not like your ticket prices will drop in relation to that so why worry about overpaid players?
Good players getting max contracts. In 2. Seasons Lebron can become a free agent again. He will be all of 29. shouldn't he be worth more than what a very good player? I a willing To bet no one here thinks otherwise. Max contracts should be for Durant, James type guys, not Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala, Joe Johnson types.
Players not at fault in the least. Owners allowing gms to do this is the main problem.
I have no problem with super teams, I even hate the salary cap, just make the luxury tax really high. If a Paul Allen, Cuban,or Dolan doesn't mind paying 100 million in luxury tax,let them spend.Just divide the money between frugal franchises.
The scary part the owners just off a lockout because they claim the league destitute yet now they $pending like drunken $ailors using someone else's ccredit cards. I never I would side withtheplayers, but I do now.
In some ways it doesn't matter how much the contracts are. Players can only take home 50% of revenue. They basically have to give back anything over that. The tax also isn't really that much of a problem. If all the teams end up paying it, the tax goes into a big pot and then gets distributed back out to the teams. A lot of the big markets make over $150 million a year in revenue. The Knicks are over $200 million a year in revnue. A salary cap of $65 million or whatever it is just isn't on the radar.
Also there is the salary minimum now that is pretty high. So if a team is below that level, they have to pay money into a pot and I think it just goes to all the players or something. So no team wants to pay the minimum tax and get nothing from it.
Finally, I think there are all types of teams and GMs out there and they have different views about what is a good player. The Nets viewed Lopez as a good player because he scores points per game. So he gets a max contract. The Rockets view Asik as a good player because when you break down his defense per play his man scores less points than anyone in the league. So Asik gets a good contract. The Nets obviously wouldn't ever pay for a defensive only players, while the Rockets would never pay for a center who can't rebound. But since there are enough GMs in each camp, it is like every player gets paid!
And we can't keep comparing contracts to Lebron's. There is a max in the CBA, the owners wanted it that way and most of the players wanted it that way. If there was no max, Lebron would get at least $40 million per year, even if you left the rest of the salary cap the way it is. If there was no Max, D. Howard would get a $35 million per year offer from Orlando under the Bird Rights and we would never have to worry about anyone beating that.
The rules just make it that players much worse will get max contracts that are the same as Lebron. That will be the case unless the CBA gets changed to allow higher max contracts. But the players don't want more money concentrated in the hands of less players (who are already getting paid more through endorsements) and the owners don't want bigger contracts on individual players because then an injury takes out more of salary and if you screw up (see Amare's contract) you are even more cap constrained.
thats the exact same deal d jordan got and less than asik so imo thats a great deal for the nugs
But its ashame the players had bend in order to protect the owners from themselves. Stop overpaying. That Joe Johnson deal was stupid. Plain and simple. Asiks deal is kinda hefty too.
If the BROKElyn Nets want to throw out a bunch of stupid contracts to lose in 7 games to the Knicks in the first round that's fine.
There are some bad contracts out there, but some bad owners made it happen.
As a Griz fan I am happy with that. We resigned Mo Speights and Darrell Arthur for $3 million each. We signed Bayless for $3 million after not matching OJ Mayo's qualifying offer for about twice that. We spent smart there. We have Josh Selby cheap, plus Tony Wroten is a guy who has talent that we didn't reach on. We are trying to move a $2 million energy guy for a shooter (which we need). Decent move, not a home run, but sometimes you get burned on home run swings.
Now I think the Griz need another big man. But we won't spend more than the minimum to get a guy to be our 12th/13th man.
I actually don't fault the Rockets. They threw a big back-ended contract at Jeremy Lin but it was more of a poison pill, and you have to overpay to get some other team's restricted free agents. Although overall, a $25 million deal over 3 years isn't that bad, especially with Lin's upside as a player and as a marketing franchise. The Rockets have a bunch of rookies and second year guys so they could afford to splurge on a guy. I think Morey played the Lin thing perfectly. Love his offseason. They made a big effort to get Dwight Howard (super stars are worth it, especially super star bigs), and when that failed they get the guy who had more buzz last year than anyone at a position they needed. After Dragic walks for a bunch of money, they turn Kyle Lowry into a first round pick. So Lin fits there. ... with Asik, he is not a glamor guy, but he is more of an advanced stats guy who defends. $8 million a year is probably overpaying, but again the Rockets had to overpay to get him. Then they amnesty Scola, save some money and give his minutes to their younger guys.
Javale McGee probably is getting overpaid at $11 million a year, but if he reaches his potential then he will be worth it. I like the Nuggets team and McGee is an integral part of that. The thinking there is probably something like, ok, we have Gallo, McGee, Faried, Lawson, Aflalo, a good young core to go along with some vets like Andre Miller and Al Harrington. Let's see what we can do these next few years so let's let this team ride and see what happens. Lock these guys in, don't do anything stupid but if some great opportunity comes along take advantage. I think that they are building a nice young team. I even like Jordan Hamilton. Evan Fournier is a risky pick, but that could really work out.
I think the Nets messed up and the Knicks screwed up by not matching for Lin. They are already paying a bunch of guys, most of them really, really old, so why don't you try to keep the guy that could make you a legit contender?
I thought the Hawks had a great offseason. Got rid of two big contracts and are looking to rebuild. The Suns did well after Nash left.
I can't really think of that many bad moves. You can overpay a core guy (somewhat) but not a role player/fringe guy. I didn't really see any fringe guy getting paid a ton of money.
I think there is a new economic system in basketball with the tougher cap and the push for more parity. I think each team can give a couple of max. deals and they can pay their top 6 or 7 guys, but then they need to draft guys who fit in well and could play some decent minutes (not necessarily drafting Best Player Available), and then fill out the rest of the roster with minimum salary guys, undrafted rookies, and D League types.
I think that once the main rotation guys got picked, free agency really turned into a buyer's market. Ray Allen and Jet were chased because they looked to be major pieces on championship contenders. But, they didn't get THAT overpaid. ... then you had the secondary wings/guards get solid deals like Bayless who got $3 million a year which makes sense. Then OJ Mayo signs, not sure how much but I doubt it was what he was originally asking for.
Some bigs got paid big money, like Brook Lopez, but he Nets splurged on everybody. Then Javale gets paid, but if he lives up to his potential he could be a bargain. Asik is going to get paid, but the Rockets had to make a big offer since he is a R.F.A.
Other big men didn't fare so well. Darko got amnestied (even Scola and Brand got amnestied), and Kwame Brown and Hasheem Thabeet signed pretty cheap. And what do those guys have in common? Ok, other than they have played for the Grizzlies in the past few years. They were all top 2 picks who kind of busted out. But guys like this aren't getting the big deals anymore. There are also some solid center guys still out there like Ryan Hollins, Greg Stiemsma, and Greg Oden.
I think the stars will still get paid. And maybe some of the top role player guys. But, other players in the middle will start to see their salaries shrink. These are good players but they don't really make a huge difference. I think we will start to see more minimum contract guys especially once a team has paid it's top 6 or 7 guys.
^I also don't fault teams like the Pacers, Grizz, or Nuggets for paying their bigs huge money, in the end you have to keep your big and I believe that it'll pay off for all three of those teams, however what I do have a problem with is Ilyasova getting 45 million, Jason Thompson getting 30+ million, Jameer Nelson still getting 7 million per year. That's where you know owners are just throwing away money like it's free candy.
I also don't fault the Grizz giving Gay his 80 million, that might be a bit much for him, but you have to keep your main guys.
It is interesting that both Lopez and Eric Gordon were given max deals after playing about 12 games combined last season. A few years ago Elton Brand and Gilbert Arenas were both given big deals after injury hit seasons and neither justified it.
People moan like hell about Iggy's deal but they will happily pay the same to an unproven big in some cases or players coming back off injury.
Houston have had a funny off season and it will be interesting to see how they move forward once all the dust has settled.
With regards to the 2013 FA market, the likes of Andy Bynum will certainly be a max deal guy now eg $100 million over 5 years or whatever he can get.
Contracts are now 4 years instead of 5 which may be why some of the dollar amounts per year might seem a little high. But, then again, only a few guys got paid big with most deserving close to what they got.
I think that the new salary cap/parity issues will come more into play next year. If some of these team's splurges paid off then guys might get paid big again. Or, more likely, Dwight Howard and Bynum get paid huge and guys like Harden and Ibaka get paid very well (probably poison pill contracts Morey-style), but other than that I see mid-level guys getting paid less.
If teams have 14 man rosters then I can see the top 2 or 3 guys getting paid great, then the rest of the core gets paid well (guys 5-7). Then maybe a good role player gets $3 or $4 million a year. But after that look for more players getting paid minimum salaries. I think we could see more undrafted rookies and D League types fill out the last few spots on every roster. In the draft teams outside the top 10 might just draft guys they can use to fill minutes rather than reaching on B.P.A. guys they have to pay for a couple of years even if they don't pan out.
The bottom half of the guys on the roster will get squeezed. These guys really aren't the difference makers unless you are talking about a knock-down shooter or other type of great specialist (lock-down defender, elite shot blocker/defensive big man). I think there is a lot of talent in the league with lots of depth especially among the late rotation types. Lots of guys out there who can fill that 9th or 10th man role. Then after that there isn't much point at throwing a bunch of money at the rest of the guys on the roster. Look for spots 10-14 being occupied more by guys on rookie contracts, D Leaguer's, veterans on their last legs, and Summer League wonders.
Right now, it looks like the free agency market has pretty much collapsed. It's a buyers market and the guys left will struggle to get solid/halfway decent contracts. Teams have basically made all their big moves. Other than maybe Courtney Lee I don't see most guys getting more than minimum level contracts.