[tdmillesParticipant]

i’ve been hearing a lot of talk that this is a weak draft. many analysts have declared that there is “only” 4 players who have all star potential in this years draft (Wall, Favors, Turner, Cousins). and after that there is a drop off – this is not my opinion, i’m just stating a general thought that seems to be recurring. However, looking at past drafts, what should be the expectation of the NBA draft? Below I have listed drafts 1995 – 2005 (stopping at 2005 because I don’t think you can truly judge a player for about five years after being drafted). It is intriguing to see the amount of all star caliber players from each draft. Other notables listed are players who have been in the league for a substantial amount of time who have a significant role on competitive teams –

1995 – ALL STARS: Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Theo Ratliff, Michael Finley = 6
OTHER NOTABLES: Joe Smith, Damon Stoudamire, Kurt Thomas, Brent Barry

1996 – ALL STARS: Allen Iverson, Shareef Abdur Rahim, Stephon Marbury, Ray Allen, Antoine Walker, Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojakovic, Steve Nash, Jermaine O’Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace = 11 WOW!
OTHER NOTABLES: Marcus Camby, Kerry Kittles, Erick Dampier, Derek Fisher,

1997 – ALL STARS: Tim Duncan, Chauncy Billups, Tracy McGrady = 3
OTHER NOTABLES: Keith Van Horn, Stephen Jackson

1998 – ALL STARS: Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk NowitZki, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis, Brad Miller = 6
OTHER NOTABLES: Mike Bibby, Jason Williams, Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobely

1999 – ALL STARS: Elton Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Wally SZerbiak, Richard Hamilton, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Andrei Kirilenko, Manu Ginobli = 9
OTHER NOTABLES: Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Corey Magettee, James Posey,

2000 – ALL STARS: Kenyon Martin, Jamaal Magloire, Michael Redd = 3 (however the fact that Magloire was an all star is almost comical)
OTHER NOTABLES: Jamal Crawford, Hedo Turkoglu

2001 – ALL STARS: Pao Gasol, Joe Johnson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur = 7
OTHER NOTABLES: Tyson Chandler, Jason Richardson, Shane Battier, Richard Jefferson

2002 – ALL STARS: Yao Ming, Amare Stoudamire, Caron Butler, Carlos BooZer = 4
OTHER NOTABLES: Tayshaun Prince, John Salmons

2003 – ALL STARS: Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Chris Kaman, David West, Josh Howard, Mo Williams = 8
OTHER NOTABLES: Kirk Hinrich, Mickael Pietrus, Boris Diaw, Kendrick Perkins

2004 – ALL STARS: Dwight Howard, Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson = 3
OTHER NOTABLES: Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Andris Biedrins, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, J.R. Smith, Kevin Martin, Trevor AriZa

2005 – ALL STARS: Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Danny Granger, David Lee = 4
OTHER NOTABLES: Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis

Some things that jump out at me is that there are obviously a few drafts that are weak (1997, 2000, 2002, 2004) and some that are outstanding (1996, 1999, 2001, 2003) and others that are somewhere in between with a solid amount of all stars and key contributors. Also in every draft except for 1997 there is at least one all star who was not drafted in the lottery. Many years, there were multiple non-lottery all stars.
So, in conclusion if you concede that Wall, Turner, Favors and Cousins will be all stars and throw in the fact that there in all likelihood will be multiple non lottery all stars (judging by history) there could potentially be 6 or 7 all stars from this years’ class. Also, there are many players who have solid role player potential. Therefore, I believe it is easy to declare a draft “weak” because there is “only” 4 all-star type players. But when you look at past history, that’s actually about average. The thing about the draft is some prospects will be awesome, some will be busts, and some will surprise and its really impossible for anyone to call a draft weak or strong without actually seeing how these players pan out.

[thunderforthewinParticipant]

how is al jefferson not an all star??!!!
20 n 10 and no reward?

and by the end of it, 2005 will of had 7 all stars

bet nobody expected that

[Author]

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