Trey Burke Draft Stock
I know that there is debate about how good Trey Burke will be in the NBA, but can we agree that on this website he is rated too low? I mean, this is a weak draft and very few players have potential to be an Allstar. Burke's ceiling is at least a fringe Allstar, and yet he isn't even ranked in the lottery on this website.
I will be shocked if he doesn't go top 10.......no reason he shouldn't. Plenty of reasons he should.
I can really only think of one reason why he shouldn't: there are ten players better than him IMO. I guess that's the only reason that matters, though.
I'd put him ahead of MCW, and I wouldn't put him that far behind Marcus Smart. I think he's actually got a better feel for the game than Smart does, is more skilled in many ways (particularly offensively and passing-wise), and nearly matches the intangibles Smart brings. The big difference between Smart and Burke is athleticism and defense. Smart is more athletic, longer, and stronger than Burke, allowing him to play better D. If Burke were a bit longer and had a bit more muscle, he'd be the first PG off the board, no question.
MCW has been playing himself out of the lottery these last couple weeks. His jumpshot a little ugly. I would pick Burke ahead of him, but MCW's potential is still tremendous.
In my opinion, it depends on the team for who they should get between Burke and MCW.
Burke is at worst a solid bench player, at best a fringe starter IMO. MCW is at worst a D-League player, but at best, could be an all-star. I think Burke is a better fit for a team that isn't that far away from being a very good team. I think MCW is a better fit for a team like Sacramento or Milwaukee, where:
1. They need to swing for the fences to try to draft a high potential guy because they won't be able to sign any in free agency
2. They need someone that can come in and change the team mentality. MCW is a perfect fit for Sacramento because all of their players only care about scoring, and MCW can be the guy that distributes the ball to them and setting the tone defensively.
I personally have MCW ahead of Burke, but I wouldn't be mad if my team drafted Burke around the end of the lottery.
If Burke can win a national championship or take UofM deep in the tourney(Elite8 or Final Four) then we MIGHT have something to talk about.
Other than that, I don't see Burke going top 10.
I just think GM's aren't going to like his size and his inability to break down defenders without a pick and roll, on top of that his athleticism is just abover average, not Elite and at his heighthe needs elite athleticism to compensate for his height from a prospect standpoint....ala Kemba Walker.
I think you are underestimating just how OFTEN the PnR game is used. Plenty of PGs in the league make a living off of dissecting the defense due to PnR game & Burke certainly has the ability & smarts to be one of those players.
Go under the PnR he will burn you with the J. Go over it & he makes the RIGHT play 9 times out of 10 by either finishing in the paint/mid-range or finding the open player.
I am certainly not one who wants to put my money up against doubting Burke.
Not underestimating how useful the pick and roll is at all, never once said that, i'm just stating why I don't think Burke will be a top 10 pick.
So you think Burke will be a top 10 pick?
I don't see why not. He has EVERY skill you want from your PG except for that heavily overrated "blow by speed" trait, but it's not like he has Andre Miller type speed. He can certainly push it when he wants to.
Lets see....LOCKS for top 10....IMO
Oladipo & Len are close to being locks.
That's 8. I would take Burke over Plumlee, WCS, MCW, Olynyk, GRIII, KCW, McCollum.
***If Noel comes out he is in the top 10 as well***
No reason he can't go top 10, & he certainly is playing like a top 10 pick this year. "BLOW BY SPEED" or NOT.
Plumlee and possibly Olynyk
As I said in another forum about Burke, he's probably POY and his numbers dont lie, but GM's will take those guys listed over him, and it's no knock against Burke it's just how the NBA work's, they go off potential.
Noel,Zeller,Plumlee,Olynyk,Len are very good prospects and are 7 footers they will go over Burke, GM's tend to take 7 footers before 5'11, 6'0 guards.
Smart,McLemore,Bazz,Bennett,Oladipo,Porter,MCW are all bigger and better prospects as of now than Burke.
Im not hating on Burke you can check threads on him where I say he is the best PG in college, but it's just reality he wont go top 10 unless he plays out of his mind in the tourney.
Plumlee was born in 3/ 1990. Trey was born 11/1993. That's almost a 4 year difference.
Give Burke all the time Plumlee's had and he would be a NBA player in college, Straight dominating.
If I had a team i wouldnt even think about taking Plumlee ahead of Trey.
Burke reminds me a lot of DJ Augustin. The knock on Burke is his size as it was with Augustin and Augustin went 9th. Then a year later a guy who is clearly superior in Lawson goes 18th. When it comes to the PG position in the NBA size is overrated a bit in the draft compared to can you play. Remember those people who thought Mustafa Shakur was better than Chris Paul because he was 6'3 and Paul was 5'11?
To be fair regarding Lawson (which is tough because I personally had him pegged as the best PG in the class outside of Rubio), didn't he end up being like the 5th or 6th PG taken? So the fact that he still went 18th is pretty damn impressive lol.
Lawson is far more athletic than Burke though. You just can't teach his speed. His athleticism goes a long way in making up for his lack of height; not to mention he's an absolute tank.
He is known for his offense but it was the two big steals he made that won that game for Michigan yesterday, That really impressed me because I knew he got it done every night on offense but making impact plays on defense is a great sign for the next level. He has scored at least 15 points in every Big Ten game this year. That is not easy to do especially while leading your conference in assists and playing with guys like Hardaway Jr and Stauskas.
He was clearly the best player on the floor yesterday and I would rank him in the 8-10 range right now with only McLemore, Noel, Shabazz, Smart, Porter and Len ahead of him for sure at this point. I would say he is in a group of guys fighting for the top 5 potentially down the road with a good March. Those guys would be Bennett, Zeller, Oladipo, MCW and Cauley-Stein.
I've had Burke going to Detroit at pick 9 for many of my mock drafts since January. I think Knight would play better off the ball, while Burke could come in and be a play maker and facilitator. Unless Otto Porter, Anthony Bennett, or one of the consensus top 5 players fall to Detroit, I think they should look at Burke in the 8-12 range. Plus, he would be staying in Michigan which would make Michigan fans happy that he's staying in state.
Honestly, I think that his 'lack of speed' is played up too much. I just don't see it. He isn't slow. He isn't average speed. He has good speed. This website said that Irving had 'solid but not elite athleticism.' At the very least, Burke has solid, but not elite, athleticism. He may not be as athletic as Tony Parker or Chris Paul, but he has good NBA athleticism.
Honestly, i am going to be really interested to see his draft combine numbers (if he even does it).He could prove a lot of people wrong.
I'm curious ... If you are one who doesn't think Burke is going in the Top 10, what would he have to do for you to put him in the top 10? More points? More steals? Better shooting?
Honest question. I want to know.
Better stats won't make a difference. He just isn't a top 10 pick IMO. Even if he gets hot down the stretch, it doesn't change what kind of player he is and what kind of ceiling he has. I just don't think he has that much potential. I could see him getting picked 10th or something, but I think he's gonna end up being a late lottery pick.
I get where you are coming from. Stats don't prove what kind of a player every college athlete would be. It isn't that simple.
Yet, at some point stats and potential have to cross. Burke is dominating the best conference in the NCAA, and has not had a bad game, unlike other good prospects (Smart, Muhammad, Michael Carter-Williams). Those stats should show us something about his game.
I don't think it is that Burke isn't athletic but he isn't nearly as athletic as some of the PG prospects we have seen recently. Guys like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook make great athletes like Burke appear to average.
I am very high on Burke but his biggest weakness potentially at the next level is breaking down the defense with quick moves and attacking the rim with a strong explosive finish. I love his floor game and jump shot but his athleticism being only average for a starting NBA PG is what will keep him from being a top 5 pick.
I see what your saying, but i disagree. Every time that i watch Burke i am impressed with his ability to set up his defender and helpside defenders, get by them, and finish at the rim. I mean, in the game against MSU, Burke broke down multiple defenders several times and finished, and that is against a Tom Izzo defense.
Lance Nix and Adrien Payne are a nice front line in the Big Ten but it isn't exactly NBA caliber shot blocking he faced. He did look great though just not an elite athlete.
I'm really high on Burke. He's one of those guys I'm going out on a limb on for this draft. I'd draft him number 4 overall behind Shabazz, Mclemore, and Noel. He has a great feel for the game, excellent leadership, and a very strong all around game. His only 'fault' is that he's 6 foot even.
Recent picture has him at 6'1'', and his wingspan is 6'6''