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TomShoeSo, it turns out "Mr. PER" John Hollinger is putting up his updated player profiles for this year. I know many people want to look at them, but ESPN can be a real B- when they’re putting up paywalls and shoving the benefits of insider in your face every other article. So, for sh*ts and giggles, also because I’m pulling my hair out waiting for Oct. 5 (Celtics vs. Fenerbach Ulker), I might as well post them here, for nbadraft.net and the whole internet to enjoy.
I’m so glad that my Lakers and 76ers topics have lasted this long. These profiles are starting to pick up steam. Thanks for all the support 🙂
Clippers up, followed by the Grizzlies tomorrow and the Bulls Monday. Enjoy.
-TomShoe
PROJECTED STARTERS
CHRIS PAUL, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 20.6 3.8 10.0 24.37 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Incredible ball handler and pick-and-roll operator who never loses dribble.
+ Improved outside shooter. Can score but penetrates to pass. Makes free throws.
+ Defensive ball hawk. Tough but size problematic on close-outs. Knees a worry.Analysis
So I guess his knees were OK. Paul ranked second in the league in player efficiency rating (PER) and third in estimated wins added and made the Clippers relevant for the first time in eons. Better yet, he rediscovered his offensive aggression after a worrisome passive stretch in the second half of 2010-11.Paul is amazing because he’s so clever — a master of the subtle arts of drawing fouls, getting 2-for-1s and creating angles. My favorite trick of Paul’s is when he slows down and walls off the trailing defender on a pick-and-roll. Once an opponent is on his side or behind him, the opponent never, ever gets back in front.
Paul finished third in pure point rating, and amazingly had the second lowest turnover ratio among point guards even though he had one of the highest usage rates in the game. His shooting accuracy was pretty exceptional, too. Paul was fourth among point guards in true shooting percentage, making a stellar 44.5 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet while taking more than six shots a game from this distance. He also converted 49.7 percent in the tricky 3-to-9-foot range, placing him fourth in the league.
Steals Per 40 Minutes Leaders, 2011-12
Player Team Stl/40 Chris Paul LAC 2.79 Sundiata Gaines Bkn 2.77 Tony Allen Mem 2.73 Ronnie Price Phx 2.63 Ricky Rubio Min 2.59 Min. 500 minutes Defensively, Paul was his usual pesky self. He led the league in steals per minute (see chart), and while his size is an issue, his ball hawking more than offset it. Opposing point guards had a 13.8 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and Synergy rated him well above average.
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 10.1 3.5 5.5 14.58 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Crafty guard with good size and deep shooting ability. Rarely turns it over.
+ Strong but slow-footed defender. Often does better guarding 2s. Loves pull-up 3s.
+ Master of drawing contact. Great foul shooter. Scorer’s mentality; average passer.Analysis
Billups’ erratic play had wags calling him "Mr. Bad Shot" — he had one of the worst 2-point field goal percentages in basketball last season at a ghastly 34.0 percent, and his 36.4 percent overall mark was the third worst at his position. Certainly he could have chosen some of his deliveries a bit better. In particular, his love affair with pull-up 3s led to some unfortunate choices.But once again, his combination of 3-pointers and free throw attempts made him far more effective than people realized. More than half his shots were 3s and he made a solid 38.4 percent of them; additionally, he had the third highest free throw rate among shooting guards and shot a sizzling 89.5 percent from the line. As a result, Billups was second in the NBA in secondary percentage last season, trailing only New York Knicks 3-point specialist Steve Novak (see chart).
Best Secondary Percentage, 2011-12
Player Team Secondary Pct. Steve Novak NY 20.7 Chauncey Billups LAC 19.0 James Jones Mia 18.7 James Harden OKC 16.8 Kyle Korver Chi 16.8 Min. 500 minutes So while Billups had a terrible shooting percentage, his true shooting percentage — the thing that really matters — rated in the top third of shooting guards. He was also third among shooting guards in pure point rating, which is less surprising considering he often moved to the point.
Where Billups struggled was at the defensive end. He’s undersized at the 2, offers nothing on the boards and no longer moves well laterally. While he’s still better off at this position than at the point — he just can’t defend quick 1s anymore — he’s a liability defensively at either guard spot.
Of course, of far greater concern is his ability to return from a torn Achilles, a serious injury which few players have made successful recoveries from so late in their careers. Billups was already in steady decline the past two seasons, and he’ll be 36 by opening day. The glass-half-full take is that his smarts and shooting ability won’t be affected, but he still has to be able to move.
CARON BUTLER, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 15.5 5.2 1.8 11.53 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Volume scorer who likes to take line-drive, midrange jump shots.
+ Good build and can score in traffic. Quick release. Doesn’t see floor.
+ Improved team defender who gambled less. Good size, iffy mobility.Analysis
Grinding out the playoffs with a broken hand was admirable. Butler’s regular season was less so, and the Clips have to be deeply worried about the two years and $16 million left on his contract. He shot the ball reasonably well, hitting 35.8 percent of his 3s and 41.3 percent of his long 2s, but made less than half his shots inside 10 feet and had a very low free throw rate. As a result, his true shooting percentage barely cleared 50, and he really offered nothing else to offset it.Thus, while Butler averaged a solid 16.1 points per 40 minutes, he finished in the bottom third of small forwards in true shooting percentage, assists and rebounds. At least he was fairly solid defensively. Butler stopped gambling for steals as much, dipping to 42nd at his position in steals rate, but his defensive data was solid for a second straight season. Opposing 3s had a 12.1 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and the Clippers defended slightly better with him on the court. Given his ho-hum effort level in Washington, this is a major improvement.
Nonetheless, they need more offensive production from Butler in order to continue starting him. Grant Hill is looming in the wings, and while he also struggled offensively in 2011-12, he’s a vastly superior defender.
BLAKE GRIFFIN, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 23.8 12.1 3.7 23.56 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Phenomenally explosive, strong physical specimen. Ridiculous dunker.
+ Handles ball well for size. Monster rebounder. Very quick spins from right block.
+ Will loaf on defense. Subpar help defender with short arms. Bad foul shooter.Analysis
Griffin is much more than a dunker, although it’s hard for the other stuff to get attention after some of his earth-shaking jams. His 73.7 percent shooting mark in the basket area gets your attention, but also take note of his solid work in the 3-to-9 foot range (44.4 percent) and that he’s slowly becoming respectable with the pick-and-pop game (35.5 percent from beyond 10 feet). He relies too much on the pick-and-pop right now, but he’ll need that shot as the years go by and he loses some spring.Griffin’s biggest shortcoming is his free throw shooting; he hit just 52.1 percent, basically undoing all he benefit of drawing more than seven free throw attempts per game. He also drew lots of non-shooting fouls that helped get his teammates in the bonus, as only Dwight Howard was fouled more often on a per-minute basis (see chart). His true shooting percentage was still strong because of his shooting from the field, but this is the biggest obstacle between him and superstardom.
Most Fouls Drawn Per 40 Minutes, 2011-12
Player Team PF drawn/40 Dwight Howard NY 20.7 Blake Griffin LAC 8.9 DeMarcus Cousins Sac 7.4 Kevin Love Min 7.1 Jeremy Lin NY 6.9 Min. 500 minutes. Source: NBA.com Griffin’s ball skills are pretty refined, too. He was in the top third of power forwards in assist ratio, turnover ratio and pure point rating. He’s becoming better at picking out double-teams and finding the open man, and he dribbles well for his size. (But please, dude, ditch all the needless between-the-legs business).
Defensively, Griffin does great work on the boards (sixth among power forwards in rebound rate) but is average at best overall. Partly that’s because of his short arms, partly that’s because his effort fluctuates and partly that’s because he’s still learning where to be. He’s not the first young player to suffer from those weaknesses, and with a bit more focus and experience he can be very solid.
DEANDRE JORDAN, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 11.8 12.2 0.5 16.31 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Big, left-handed center who is a devastating finisher and shot-blocker.
+ Has no real moves besides dunks. Poor ball handler. Terrible foul shooter.
+ Defensive focus comes and goes. Questionable work ethic.Analysis
Jordan improved, but in general you want a $10 million center to be on the court in the fourth quarter of playoff games. The Clippers were better when he wasn’t. The issue for Jordan is that he continues to have lots of sizzle and shockingly little steak. Dunks and blocked shots? Oh hell yeah, he’s got those. The other stuff that helps you win basketball games? Not so much.Jordan actually does one other thing well: rebounding. He had a career-high rebound rate that placed him 14th among centers, and he also ranked ninth in blocks with 3.00 per 40 minutes.
And offensively, he knows his limitations. Jordan shot 63.2 percent last season by mostly shooting right at the basket, and even showed a bit of promise on short hooks, making 24 of his 46 tries from 3 to 9 feet. However, his rebounds and dunks came at a cost in three-second violations. Despite his limited offensive role, he was 48th out of 63 centers in turnover ratio. One other positive, if you see the glass as half-full, was a career-best 52.5 percent mark from the line. Baby steps …
Defensively, Jordan’s blocks give him value and he was better than the season before at the fundamental stuff, but he still falls asleep on the weak side or rotates half a second late. Synergy rated him strongly, but opposing centers blistered him for a 20.2 PER, according to 82games.com. Regularized adjusted plus-minus sees him as a neutral defender overall, despite his shot-blocking ability, and subjectively that seems an accurate assessment.
RESERVES
JAMAL CRAWFORD, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 18.4 2.8 4.4 14.56 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Slick-handling, shoot-first combo guard with great quickness. Will force shots.
+ Rarely attacks paint but excels at drawing fouls on jumpers. Awful rebounder.
+ Low-effort defender. Good quickness but no strength. More effective against 1s.Analysis
More shots, fewer makes wasn’t a great formula to follow considering Crawford’s volume-shooting approach was already hitting the point of diminishing returns, but Portland’s lack of offensive punch at the guard spots drove him to find his shot more than ever. Crawford ended up fifth among shooting guards in usage rate, although he wasn’t solely jacking for himself — he was still in the top third of the position in pure point rating. Still, his 50.6 true shooting percentage was a marked decline from his usual level.Crawford’s 3-pointer let him down, but that was partly because so many of his 3s were late shot-clock hoists off the dribble. He hit only 30.8 percent from downtown, offsetting good shooting from other spots — he made 41.3 percent of his long 2s and drew a high rate of fouls.
Notably, Crawford had a much better PER as a shooting guard (15.8) than as a point guard (12.8), according to 82games.com. This backs up his own feelings: He’s known to prefer playing off the ball and bristled when the twin disasters of Raymond Felton and Nolan Smith forced him to play heavy minutes at the 1 last season.
However, he’s always defended point guards better and did so again last season. Crawford is a below-average defender overall and last season’s data supported that impression, but he can do solid work in situations where he plays off the ball on offense and guards the opposing point guard. Joining the Clippers and coming off the bench with players like Eric Bledsoe and Chauncey Billups may afford him that opportunity.
LAMAR ODOM, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.6 8.4 2.8 10.42 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Mobile combo forward with outstanding ballhandling skill for size.
+ Visibly unmotivated in 2011-12. Average outside shooter who lacks great burst.
+ Strong defensive player when motivated. Can guard 4s or step out to perimeter.Analysis
Perhaps no player in history has declined as sharply in one season as Odom did in 2011-12. Empirically, we can prove this. I have a database that goes back more than two decades, and Odom is the first player in its history to have a player efficiency rating (PER) decline of more than 10 points in a single season (see chart). Take it from an Atlantan — when you can knock Speedy Claxton’s 2006-07 season off the top five chart, you’ve done something.Most Fouls Drawn Per 40 Minutes, 2011-12
Player Team Year Prev. PER PER Decline Lamar Odom Dal 2011-12 19.50 9.26 -10.24 Jason Hart Sac 2005-06 16.91 7.10 -9.81 Chucky Atkins Den 2007-08 17.45 9.12 -9.33 Tyrus Thomas Cha 2011-12 18.25 9.06 -9.19 Otis Smith Orl 1991-92 17.23 8.12 -9.11 Min. 500 minutes each season In addition to becoming a walking spokesperson for the Fluke Rule, Odom’s baffling malaise also pretty much torched any chance Dallas had of making a credible title defense. It’s hard to say how much he can recover. The history of previous players to suffer drop-offs like this is quite discouraging — most never even remotely got back to where they were, and at 32 Odom doesn’t have time on his side.
The one argument in his favor is the palpable disinterest he showed for much of the season. Whether he was dejected by leaving L.A., was weary from his grueling reality show responsibilities or just lost interest in the game, Odom’s effort level was the most notable difference. Those changes were reflected in his rebound rate, which fell dramatically, from 15.2 to 11.4, and in his defensive numbers, which were consistently excellent every season until the disaster from this past one.
Bad shooting also played a role. Odom increased his rates of 3-pointers and long 2s even though he couldn’t shoot straight, making 25.2 percent of his 3s and 30.1 percent of his 2s beyond the restricted area. Those numbers may not recover to the career highs of a season earlier, but they should bounce back somewhat.
Nonetheless, the Clippers are taking a risk here. The theory is that he’ll play better now that he’s back in L.A., but it’s an untested one. And for Odom to regain his former level, it would require a historic one-year increase in PER to offset last season’s collapse. He’ll be better than last season, simply because he couldn’t possibly be worse, but it’s unlikely a decline this sharp can be remedied simply with improved beach access.
GRANT HILL, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 10.3 5.4 3.1 8.51 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Long, veteran wing with great ballhandling skill for size. Excellent finisher.
+ Rarely takes 3s but good midrange shooter. Good rebounder for wing.
+ Ace defender because of length, smarts and quickness. Can guard 1 through 4.Analysis
Hill can still defend, but he slipped last season at the offensive end. Looking a step slower and getting fewer shots at the rim, both Hill’s scoring rate and field goal percentage slipped and, as a side consequence, he also drew dramatically fewer fouls. He’s not a 3-point weapon but still shoots very effectively from midrange, making 42.9 percent between 10 and 23 feet; he’ll need that in L.A. to hit shots from the short corner.Hill’s rebound rate slipped to a career low (7.0), another sign that he might be losing some spring, but his ballhandling numbers remained solid and he still had an impact defensively. That’s the one skill the Clippers have to hope he retains, because it’s the one they need. Hill permitted just a 12.2 PER to opposing small forwards, according to 82games.com, and the Suns gave up 3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court; Synergy also rated him as well above average.
Perhaps his offensive decline last season is merely a lockout-induced blip, but Hill will be 40 on opening day, and at times last season he seemed a step slow. One hopes what happened to his offense isn’t a harbinger for his defense.
WILLIE GREEN, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 15.8 3.5 2.0 11.84 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Midrange shooter who has added 3-point weapon. Drives to score, not pass.
+ Good quickness defensively. Competes, but undersized and fouls too much.
+ Good handle; can play point in a pinch. Poor rebounder. Doesn’t draw fouls.Analysis
I’ve been ripping on Green for years, so of course he comes to my city and immediately starts raining 3s. Green put up a career-high PER and was a genuinely effective player last season with the Atlanta Hawks, precisely because he started spotting up for 3s instead of relying on long 2s. He drained 44.2 percent of his triples while taking more than a third of his shots from downtown.Green still took a lot of long 2s, making 41.8 percent of them, and he doesn’t draw fouls. Nonetheless, he was in the top fifth of shooting guards in 2-point shooting percentage and finished 10th at the position in true shooting percentage; he also had the seventh best turnover ratio at the position. Green still has shortcomings — he’s a bad rebounder and passer and his 3-point percentage last season was almost certainly a fluke — but if he’s taking 3s instead of 2s he can fit in the back end of a rotation.
Subjectively, Green wasn’t a bad defender, but his numbers were pretty poor. Synergy rated him as the Hawks’ worst defender, opposing wings fared far better against him than any other Hawk according to 82games.com, and Atlanta gave up 5.4 more points per 100 possession with him on the court. The Hawks often used him in defensively stretched smallball lineups, however, which may skew his numbers.
ERIC BLEDSOE, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A (Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season) 
Scouting report
+ Quick, athletic guard with good size and tremendous defensive potential.
+ Nominally a point guard, but no idea how to play offense. Turnover machine.
+ Poor outside shooter and lacks feel, but has great burst and draws fouls.Analysis
Bledsoe was injured for a big chunk of 2011-12 and on the fringes of the rotation for much of the rest, but he was a revelation in the postseason with his dogged defense and ball pressure.He played only 436 minutes and his regular-season numbers were pretty ugly. He can’t shoot and has an insanely high turnover ratio, which it makes it awfully tough for him to be an effective offensive player. Last season his 45.4 true shooting percentage was about as bad as it gets for a guard, and his turnover ratio would have been the worst at his position with enough minutes. He had a negative pure point rating for a second straight season, which is bad, bad news if you’re an aspiring point guard. Basically, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more inefficient offensive player.
Nonetheless, his suffocating defense gives him some value. He’s an active, athletic defender with high rates of steals and rebounds, and despite standing 6-foot-1 he can guard many 2s effectively. There’s a cost in fouls — he had one every 7.5 minutes, which is extremely high for a point guard — but the Clippers gave up 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
All of which sets up an important third season for Bledsoe. He’ll likely be handed the backup point guard gig and will certainly terrorize opposing backups with his ball pressure. But he needs to show some degree of competence on offense to stay in the rotation.
MATT BARNES, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.7 9.1 3.3 14.4 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Slender combo forward who runs the floor well. Good cutter. Lacks strength.
+ Erratic outside shooter. Weak ball handler with high bounce, but good passer.
+ Tough and energetic. Outstanding rebounder for size. Fouls frequently.Analysis
The Lakers’ bench was a huge negative last season, but Barnes provided the one exception to that rule. He quietly (as quietly as can be done as a Laker) had the best season of his career, ripping nearly 10 boards per 40 minutes from the small forward position and ranking second at that spot in rebound rate. He also shot just well enough from the corner (33.3 percent on 3s) to require a bit of respect from opposing defenses.Although not a great shooter, Barnes is a good cutter and finisher who shot 61.6 percent at the basket and drew a high rate of fouls. Additionally, his passing skills flourished — he was sixth at his position in assist ratio, albeit at a high cost in turnovers.
Defensively, Barnes doesn’t have great feet on the wing and again proved foul-prone — only six small forwards fouled more often — but he was seventh in blocks. He competes, too: Opposing small forwards had only a 13 PER against him, and the Lakers weren’t any worse with him on the court.
RYAN HOLLINS, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 11.2 6.6 0.8 8.03 (Stats are per 40 minutes) 
Scouting report
+ Lean, athletic big man who can run the floor and make spectacular dunks.
+ Poor shooter with no post game. Can make short runners. Loses cool easily.
+ Amazingly bad rebounder. Capable pick-and-roll defender. Lacks strength.Analysis
Hollins had a poor offensive season in limited minutes, but he showed enough activity on the defensive end to provide some value as a third center. Averaging just 10.0 points per 40 minutes with his usual sky-high turnover ratio, Hollins provided one interesting footnote: He had the second highest free throw rate in the league, with 75 free throw attempts on just 84 field goal attempts. Only Reggie Evans had a better rate.Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt, 2011-12 Leaders
Player Team FTA/FGA Reggie Evans LAC 0.99 Ryan Hollins Cle/Bos 0.89 Tyson Chandler NY 0.89 Dwight Howard Orl 0.79 Omer Asik Chi 0.66 Min. 500 minutes. Source Hollins mostly wasted the benefit of this by shooting 52.0 percent from the line, and his ballhandling was so atrocious that he had the third worst pure point rating in the league.
But the real mystery, as always, is why Hollins can’t rebound. He’s 7 feet tall with great hops, but his 9.0 rebound rate was the worst of any big man except Steve Novak and Austin Daye. He doesn’t block shots, either, and had the lowest rate of steals in the NBA at just 0.38 per 40 minutes (he had five the entire season). Again, this is baffling given his length and quickness.
Defensively, Hollins does a solid job against the pick-and-roll but struggles in strength matchups and tends to rack up fouls; he had one every 6.7 minutes last season. He’ll also have better seasons as a scorer than the last one, as he’d had double-digit PERs the previous four seasons. But if the Clippers are counting on him as a full-time backup center, that’s not a role he can handle.
RONNY TURIAF, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A (Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season) 
Scouting report
+ High-energy, injury-prone big man who blocks shots and hustles.
+ Decent midrange shooter and passer, but only shoots if left wide open.
+ Subpar rebounder. Undersized for a 5 and compensates with high foul rate.Analysis
Between his usual assortment of injuries Turiaf played only 17 games for Miami and Washington, but he played them well enough to provide a passable backup center — perfect for using in short bursts when he can run around like a crazy person and foul indiscriminately. The most notable developments were spikes in both his rebound and turnover ratios, but given the small sample size I wouldn’t put much stock in either shift.TREY THOMPKINS, F
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A (Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season) 
Scouting report
+ Skilled big man who can make midrange jumpers and handle ball.
+ Limited post game and finishing skills. Average athlete. Soft.
+ Defensive mobility a major question. Needs to get in better shape.Analysis
Thompkins played bits and pieces of 24 games, and if "willingness to shoot" were a metric, he’d be right near the top. He flung 61 shots in 120 minutes, many of them jumpers that landed nowhere near their intended target. As a pick-and-pop guy, he’ll need to shoot more accurately and less brazenly to crack a rotation.Amazingly, he didn’t get any run in the D-League, so this limited sample is all we have to go by.
TRAVIS LESLIE, G
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A (Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season) 
Scouting report
+ Athletic guard who needs to improve skill level. Short for a wing. Long arms.
+ Shooting, ballhandling major questions. Strong. Excellent rebounder for size.Analysis
Leslie played 10 games for the parent club, for a total of 45 minutes, and didn’t embarrass himself. That sample doesn’t tell us much, but he also played extensively in 10 D-League games for Bakersfield. Down there he showed why his offensive game is a concern, as he drew shockingly few fouls for an athletic wing and converted just two 3-pointers in 203 minutes.Leslie’s likely path to minutes is as an energy and defense guy, but he has to back it up with some modicum of offensive production. Additionally, the energy stuff wasn’t that overwhelming, either — just three blocks and three steals in 203 D-League minutes. He needs to do much better to stick.
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