[whateverParticipant]

My intention with this is to find a realistic career comparison for these prospects but only considering active players for the comparisons. Please note im not making the comparisons by their physical attributes or playing style Im comparing them by the stats I think they will put up in the nba. The stats are from the player they are compared to best season so far. Please let me know your opinion.

Harrison Barnes – Caron Butler Best season: 21 pts, 7 rebounds, 4 assists.

Kyrie Irving – Baron Davis, Best season: 22 pts, 4 rebounds, 8 assists

Derrick Williams – David West, Best season: 21pts, 9 rebounds, 2 assists

Brandon Knight – Devin Harris, Best season: 21pts, 3 rebounds, 7 assists

Perry Jones – Luol Deng, Best seasons: 19pts, 7rebounds, 3 assists

Jared Sullinger – Carlos Boozer, Best season: 21pts, 11rebs, 3 assists

[ZeroParticipant]

 I don’t think there’s a point in comparing players just off of stats. Also, I think we should watch them play an NBA game first before predicting what they’ll average in a few years.

[whateverParticipant]

I enjoy statiscal analysis and actually have fun doing this kind of things if u dont have an interest in reading about it just dont, i actually used very complicated methods to get the predictions i guess i am just a geeky basketball fan and i know although not everyone will aprecciate this i hope at least a couple of people will.

[providencefriars1Participant]

Personally I really like my Barnes=Joe Johnson comparsion, Barnes seems to have a better jumper than Butler.

[whateverParticipant]

good point, i dont think barnes will play sg though i think he will definetely be a sf in the nba and he would average considerably more rebounds than joe imo.

[whateverParticipant]

good point, i dont think barnes will play sg though i think he will definetely be a sf in the nba and he would average considerably more rebounds than joe imo.

[B FreeParticipant]

I guess what zero was saying is there is no need to put the name of the player if its on stats alone not style, just put the projected stats.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

These are much more realistic than what most people post. Most people assume that such a such a player will either break the curve or is better than so and so, but more often than not, players tend to post some semi-similar averages over their careers. Most players are not going to put up mega statistics, which some tend to project when looking at stats. Unless you think the player is really special, the odds of them putting up 25 ppg in their career is incredibly low, especially do so on a great team when you are not a franchise player.

56 players in NBA history have averaged 20 ppg, and while many more have scored such in a single season, the odds again are not that high. 2003 is considered an amazing draft, and right now has three players averaging 20 ppg for their career, with Chris Bosh being at 20 and surely under by as early as next year. David West is the next leading scorer apart from these 4 players (LeBron, Wade, Melo and Bosh), and he has had a career high of 21 ppg in a season, had another season over 20 ppg and the last two at around 19. Josh Howard is the only other player within a point of 20 ppg in a season from this draft class (19.9 in 2007-08), and the odds are, he is never get near there again. So, out of 60 players drafted in 2003, 10% have had a season averaging at least 20 points per game. This is in an awesome draft.

2004: 6 who have come within one point of 20ppg at least once in their career (Dwight Howard, Kevin Martin: has averaged the most ppg in the class thus far, Ben Gordon: on the decline, Devin Harris: much of the same, Al Jefferson: Who knows if he gets back, Andre Iguodala: 19.9 in 07-08 and has declined every season since)

2005: 5 (Monta Ellis: Leading scorer in the class thus far in PPG, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Danny Granger and David Lee: fat chance of us seeing that again)

2006: 4 (Poor Brandon Roy :(, Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge and Toronto’s favorite punching bag Andrea Bargnani)

2007: Kevin Durant (though Aaron Brooks has come closest other than KD at 19.6 in his MIP year)

2008 with its Daddy Fat Stacks Depth: 6 (Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez) and to be fair, OJ Mayo averaged 18.5 and could average 20 at some point, and Danilo Gallinari should get monster buckets.

Still, from these 6 draft classes, 28 guys have reached the 20 ppg plateau, and while we could see more, we will not see many more. So, just using these draft classes as a testing group, their has been a 7% chance of picking a player that scores 20 ppg at least once in their career. As far as averaging 20 ppg thus far in their careers, we only have one for every draft class and 6 overall. We have the 4 from the 2003 class, with Bosh soon likely dropping out, and add in Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose (who is at 20.9, and while that will go up, it could easily sink below 20 by the time he retires). That is a 1% chance of averaging 20 ppg for your career thus far, and more than likely sinking.

So, when one is making their predictions for points, look at history and possible statistically comparable players. The way they get their statistics and their games may be radically different, but all in all, they will more than likely mimic some past players best season or come close to it as far as points, rebounds and assists. That is why I actually thought whatever made a decent post here, as compared to the ridiculous statistics many others have posted in the past. Carlos Boozer may not have been as highly touted as a draft prospect as Jared Sullinger, but Sully will be lucky to put up numbers equivalent to Boozer’s best statistical seasons.

Also, averaging 20 ppg is definitely not the end all be all of being a great player, some of the best are far below that for their career, and scoring 20 ppg is definitely no assurance of being a great player or All-Star. But, it just seems to be a good borderline for not going to crazy in ones statistical predictions. In 62 years of NBA basketball, 56 players averaged 20 for their career. That is a select few, and if you want to make a realistic prediction, it should be taken into account.

[whateverParticipant]

I really appreciate you took the time to read and research. It was my mistake not to clarify that i dont expect these players to average that throughout their career. I was trying to say these players could have these numbers during their prime 1 to 3 years tops. Im actually trying not to overhype players.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I got what you were doing, your predictions were not bad at all. I remember when you did the rookie predictions, it just was that you really can not assume most rookies will be playing more than 30 mpg. Still, you gave very reasonable predictions, it just is that it will take a long time to see whether they come true. I like that you did not go overboard, and I realized that these were statistics from their best few seasons rather than their career. Of the players you mentioned, I doubt any will average 20 ppg for their career, and I am sure you do as well. All of them, however, have a lot of potential and many could make an All-Star team or two.

Your predictions are definitely some of the more reasonable I have seen. Once they are on teams, than it will be easier, but as fun as projecting statistical output is, I tend to just wait to see how they actually play in an NBA situation. Projecting players off of college statistics is incredibly difficult, though if you were to do so, you might want to look at similar players over the past and what they have averaged and use them as a guiding point. For Irving, Chris Paul might be someone you would use and adjust as you would see fit. Chris Paul’s rookie year of 16-5-8 seems like a ridiculous expectation for Kyrie, and I would think he would average less in every category, probably 14-3.5-6.6 seem like reasonable predictions for his rookie year. His shooting % could indeed be higher than Paul’s, though I believe will be hovering in the 44-45% range. I am also guessing he would be playing around 34 or so MPG, and his team more than likely will struggle.

Using other players as a guage is usually a good call. Every player has different tendencies and strengths and weaknesses, but unless you think the player is truly exceptional, they more than likely will fall somewhere in the rookie grid. I doubt any rookie will average much more than 16-18 ppg, and I think that Derrick Williams might be the most likely to do so. Blake Griffin had a monster rookie year, I truly did not expect this much from him so soon, he was a level below Shaq as far as rookie year scoring and rebounding (though Shaq averaged over 3 blocks per game). Blake’s scoring should improve, though his rebounding numbers should probably stay somewhere around the same. The better his team gets, the fewer he should need to average. Shaq’s rookie year average of 13.9 was the most he put up during his career. If Blake is somewhere in the 11-12 range for a few years, he will not only be in elite company, but his team will probably be improving and forcing less of the rebounding load on his shoulders.

 

 

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