[dudo670Participant]

Its funny to me with the draft because a lot of times the so called "safest" guys to me are actually the riskiest picks.

 For example this year, Jayson Tatum. There’s this popular opinion that he’s got a high floor, but I think he has a very low floor. He’s an average athlete by NBA standards, has an inconsistent jump shot, and isn’t a great ball handler. I think his offense is no better than Josh Jackson, and people seem to think Jackson has a lot of offensive question marks. So if he doesn’t improve his shot or handle and isn’t getting it done on offense, what is he doing on defense? He isn’t quick enough to guard 3s but isn’t big enough to guard 4s. I’m not saying he’s going to be terrible, I just don’t think he’s a safe pick at all.

Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox are two of the safest picks in the draft in my opinion. At worst, they are both elite athletes known for being good defensive players, and that typically translates well to the NBA. Both are also highly competitive so I don’t see them being guys that fill up the box score for bad teams. And they have upside as well; if both can improve their shooting consistency, they are all stars. 

Most of these "safe" picks are guys who aren’t athletic, but draft pundits want to find something nice to say about them to justify a lofty ranking.

 

[SeattleSuperChronicsParticipant]

 When Josh Jackson scrolls across your espn footer for some stupid nonsense will you still think he was a safe pick..I think Tatum is relatively safe. He can score with the best of this years prospects and has the length to defend. He certainly isn’t melo..but could be a very good player.

  "Safe" has a lot of different meanings.

[dudo670Participant]

Off the court Jackson isn’t as safe, but I’d rather draft a guy who is a great player but can’t get on the court for a variety of reasons than an average player than always plays, because at least there is the hope that you can have this great player play. For example, Joel Embiid. I’d take him over Towns because even though Towns has a much greater chance to have a long career, Towns isn’t singlehandedly changing your franchise like Embiid does if he’s healthy.

With that said, Tatum could score with the best of this years prospects IN college. The pros are a different game. He can’t take guys off the dribble with his first step. He’s reworking his shot form which tells you he isn’t a refined shooter. The goal of the game is to win. If Tatum is scoring at a high level, its probably because his team is accumulating L’s in the process. Similar to how Okafor can average 17-7 as a rookie on the worst team in NBA history. Who cares that he averaged 17 and 7, his team was god-awful and he didn’t help them win. For reference to above, Embiid took basically the same team plus Ersan (who played well for philly) and gerald henderson and they were almost .500 with Embiid. I couldn’t care less if a guy puts up numbers. Jackson is "safe" because the goal is to win, and Jackson helps you win a lot more than Tatum does.

[Kwame33Participant]

 You lost all credibility at "Embiid over Towns".

[dudo670Participant]

 embiid is way better than Towns

[Kwame33Participant]

 Even if that were true–it isn’t–it’s not nearly as cut and dry as you’re making it out to be.

[Robb_CParticipant]

 Ive called Tatum one of the safest picks in this draft and see him as a Gordon Hayward clone..

 

 

[JK44Participant]

 I think Tatum is no clone but as safe as Otto Porter. They got the same question marks. Quick enough ? Consistent shoot ? Average athletic (that was also said about Jabari Parker !) ? Ball handling ? There are about 30 NBA clubs who would like to have Otto Porter on their team.

[Robb_CParticipant]

 Comparing Tatum to Otto Porter is laughable… Tatum is 4th on my Big Board, Hes super smooth just seems to lack consistency in playing with confidence. Otto Porter wishes he had Tatums game

[holefillers1Participant]

 I agree with your first post but Otto Porter is about to get a max contract in the $25 mil/per range.

[Robb_CParticipant]

Otto Porter is talented absolutely had a great season this year.. I just like Tatum a bit more personally, Hes just a better talent in my eyes. Tatum has potential to be the guy on a roster.. Porter is a highend 3rd option on a great team and a great  2nd option on an average team.. 

[Robb_CParticipant]

Otto Porter is talented absolutely had a great season this year.. I just like Tatum a bit more personally, Hes just a better talent in my eyes. Tatum has potential to be the guy on a roster.. Porter is a highend 3rd option on a great team and a great  2nd option on an average team.. 

[Andv1 WaitingParticipant]

 If you mean they will at least have an average NBA career then I could name a few but if you mean top 5 and they will live up to the hype that is a different question..

Futlz has top 3 potential-He is probably the safest player overall due to having translatable skills if you believe his defense will catch up to that offense

Taytum has top 6 potential safe on the offensive end and defensively he has the most Nba ready body of most of the wings- I see him as ranging from any of following: Jabari p,Otto P, Danny G or Melo. Best fit for him is either Phoenix,Sixers or  Knicks(as he could maybe replace melo if traded)

Fox is a bit Tricky he has that feast or famine about him-I see a taller version of Kemba Walker- John wall as best case and MCW/Pat bev(MCW did win R.O.Y) as the worst..So I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go any where from 2-10th overall… Best fit IMO will be Kings,T-wolves(as Him and Dunn would be one seriously fast back court lol) or Knicks/Mavs.

Josh Jackson-1-6 potential He has the tools to be a really good player his defense seems respectable,his offensive I.Q seems team first most of the time the only question is do you trust the Jumper which was only shown in limited samples. This gives him a MKG-Kawhi/Wiggins comparrison. I see either Phoenix or Sixers as best fit that will help him reach his ceiling fastest.

Ball: 2-5: I see Rubio Floor(so he is pretty safe pick) but his ceiling could be an inbetween verison of Kidd and Kevin martin by this I mean his mechanics will be weird but he will run an offense like Kidd but hit a reasonable click from range like Martin. Personally I would like him to either go Lakers,Suns or Kings, Lakers to help bring it all together and he probably could handle the hype the best due to living there most of his life, Kings as he would get a chance to help the Kings offense run uptempo which would suit whats going on there and Suns as Back court of him and Booker would be crazy..

 

The risky picks though would be:

Smith-As he could either give you that CP3,D-rose or I.T or he could flame out in 1-3 years due to injuries..See parker who came in having had injury issue then got an ACL issue in back to back seasons

Lauri M-He screams Spencer hawes/Frank Kaminsky floor and Brook lopez/Slower Ryan anderson/Dirk ceiling taking him in the top 10 is a bit risky IMO as I see him being a solid role player maybe servicable starter..

Malik Monk he is stuck in that tweener spot but to small to player either pg or sg at next level and the scary thing is I see a smaller version of Nick young/Lou william a chucker who is either on or off. The issue would be if he isn’t going to be fed the ball like in college what does he do then? If you take him in the top 10 you have to be prepared for either feast or famine and he may  hit his ceiling which I don’t even know who you could compare him to that is an above average player…Not hating just I see a bit more Bust than Boom -See Jimmer Freddette as kind of what I think will happen to him..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dudo670Participant]

The goal in the NBA is to win. Everyone fawns over Towns and Wiggins, but their team stunk. They’re nothing more than two good players than put up a lot of meaningless stats because they don’t win. If they were that good, they’d sacrifice some numbers for wins and be better than 31-51. Like I used Okafor above, people liked him as a rookie because he averaged 17-7 but one one of the worst teams in NBA history. The Bucks weren’t even a .500 team with Giannis and Jabari.

So for me, a safe guy is a guy who has the best chance of helping my team win even if he doesn’t reach his potential. Who cares if Tatum is gonna score 15-20 in his prime if he’s doing it on a mediocre team and isn’t making a difference in the W/L column? That’s the way I look at it. 

[jaysmith1987Participant]

 Their are a few players every so often with similar ISO games like Tatum.  Every player with that type of game at least gives you a couple of seasons at 20 a game.  He’s got that melo, Paul pierce, Parker, Allan Houston type Iso game that no matter how the NBA changes he will get his buckets.  At worse your looking at a guy that will give you 15-18 a game.  A guy who can score at all 3 levels is guaranteed to at least be a borderline star in the NBA.

[alex23Participant]

 I think with a NBA weight and body development program he cn definitely get a little stronger and deceptivively quicker. He actually reminds me of Danny Granger a a few years ago (09,10) when he was putting up 24-25. I can see him developing into that kind of player under the right circumstances.

[nill650Participant]

 There is no such thing as a safe pick in the lottery, 9 times out of ten everything is based on projection. But you could argue an elite level prospect is a safer than one with elite skills but less of a complete skillset, like Fultz over others. Jackson has holes in his offense, Ball has holes in his pg skills outside of passing and long shots and holes in defense, fox has holes in his outside shooting, Isaac is too thin to play the 4 etc.

outside the lottery when the base salary starts dropping and especially in the 2nd when nothing is guaranteed, then you start to see more accomplished 2-4 yr prospects who are considered more nba ready and therefore less risk is involved and usualy are the safer option than betting on an upside athlete with a ton of holes in their game despite maybe having better athleticism or length than the safer more complete player.

I think the safest picks are the ones who have very few holes in their fundamentals ,no brainer right… but when you have one that was always the best player on the floor or at the least 2nd best, with that complete skillset in college the only major risk is; will the money change them? assuming the athleticism and measureables allow them to compete on both sides of the ball at the same level they did before being drafted.

you can sometimes get a player that is not only safe but whos game is better at the pro level & consequently is a steal for the value they bring in win shares.

examples in past 5 drafts;

Brogdan, Draymond, Middleton etc.

 

 

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