[What The DevilParticipant]

So as everyone knows the #1 prospect in the country, Andrew Wiggins, has decided to go to Kansas and everyone is excited to see how that functions next season. But everything I hear and the hype about Wiggins suggests he could be an insanely great player. That’s something that confuses me. Why do media or others hype up young players much more than what they’ll actually be? I look back at all the other supposedly “can’t miss” prospects and read all the hype about them and after a few years in the league something are nothing more than roll players. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is a far shot from where they were supposed to be.

Prospects that were hyped up and really failed to live up to expectations are guys like Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo. I use these examples cause I am a Grizz fan and I’ve seen these guys play. Rudy Gay was suppose to be a franchise changer and for a while he looked like that was a definite possibility but his lack of improvement and being overpaid(management’s fault) led to him ultimately being traded for cheaper veterans. OJ was billed as a guy that could also be a franchise type player and all I heard before his season was which team was going to win the “OJ Mayo lottery” and now he is nothing more than a streak shooter that Dallas is unsure how he fits with the team. Then there are the can’t miss big guys like Greg Oden who was the next great big man yet he can’t stay on the floor. Or Andrea Bargnani who was supposed to be an heir apparent to Dirk but Toronto is trying to find someone to take his cap hit now after many seasons of him supposedly being near to a break out season. With the upcoming draft there is hype around big man Nerlens Noel who didn’t really jump out to me in all honestly in his time at Kentucky and now Andrew Wiggins hype is going on for next years draft.

I guess what I would like to know is why so much hype and pressure are put on guys who haven’t even played a college game yet? I understand that potential is what most teams base their draft around but shouldn’t teams look at an overall resume rather than just what could be?

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

The guy I saw live at the Nike Hoops Summit and the guy I watched on TV in college was the guy that
averaged 18 as a rookie, played great off the bench in the 2011 playoffs, and the same guy who had a good year
this year. He really hasn’t changed.

Rudy has always had the same M.O. Talent, length, and athleticism, but sometimes lacks focus and intensity.
Same guy, same reputation. He’s a top 30 or 40 guy in the league, not a superstar.

With Wiggins I just heard a guy say he might not be LeBron or Kobe. Maybe a poor man’s Durant or Pippen.
That makes some sense. Based on that I would expect a Vince Carter or T-Mac type guy. A top 10 or 15 guy year in and
year out.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

The guy I saw live at the Nike Hoops Summit and the guy I watched on TV in college was the guy that
averaged 18 as a rookie, played great off the bench in the 2011 playoffs, and the same guy who had a good year
this year. He really hasn’t changed.

Rudy has always had the same M.O. Talent, length, and athleticism, but sometimes lacks focus and intensity.
Same guy, same reputation. He’s a top 30 or 40 guy in the league, not a superstar.

With Wiggins I just heard a guy say he might not be LeBron or Kobe. Maybe a poor man’s Durant or Pippen.
That makes some sense. Based on that I would expect a Vince Carter or T-Mac type guy. A top 10 or 15 guy year in and
year out.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I think that is the thing. Truly do think people being antsy and not willing to wait things out is a major reason. How many threads were made surrounding where Andrew Wiggins was going to college? Or who he compares to in the NBA? Or if he is better than Jabari Parker/Julius Randle, or some other former prospect? Or what he is going to average next year or in the NBA? It gives us something to talk about until that actually happens. Time may fly by, just does not seem that way when he has just chosen a college.

Prognostication gives us something to do until than. It is why they hype up the Super Bowl for two weeks, going through countless stories/scenarios. Preseason predicting seems to start earlier and earlier as well. Because I think people on the whole get tired of waiting. So, we fill this time talking about the future. If you are part of the media, be it television, online or otherwise, you need to write about something. If seemingly nothing is going on, or what happens to be going on is not that exciting, than excitement is created in guessing what might happen to make things better.

As bad as hyping up young players can be, it is part of what has made the NBA successful as a league. It is built on its stars, marketing individuals who excel at something has always seemed to be larger than hyping a team to the greater public. George Mikan used to be a major headline, with many following. You had Pettit, Cousy, Russell, Chamberlain, Robertson, West, Abdul-Jabbar and others, though I think that the tide of marketing a remarkable athlete began to change around the time of Julius Erving. He was an incredible athlete who used to do athletic maneuvers few had seen before. Think it is safe to say that after the ABA/NBA merger, Doc was the most popular player in the league.

I think that the league office and David Stern picked up on selling this form of entertainment with marketing their stars. Magic and Bird were huge of course, than came Michael Jordan who just revolutionized the marketing of a professional athlete. Guess the point I am trying to get across is, excelling as an individual tends to sell. I also think winning is most definitely important, just people tend to want to see you win while doing something amazing. A basketball purist sees Tim Duncan as amazing. The media sees him as boring. It is kind of a shame, yet plays into why some of these guys are hyped.

OJ Mayo was tearing up high school kids when he was still in middle school. Hell, do people remember his site, OJMayo.org. That kid started marketing himself young and it worked. Andrew Wiggins getting seen as doing amazing things as a 13 year old does not hurt either. That Seventh Woods mixtape now dwarfs that mixtape in views. Social media is blowing up and people want to get news instantly, which makes an even greater demand for content, which after all what these comparisons are hyping up.

The reason expectations get set high is become excellence sells. It gets clicks. Would you rather click on a player who is "pretty good" or "one of the best at his position in the nation?" Well, chances are you are going to click on the headline giving the guy more hype. That is why these video sites are smart to do that and I think part of the reason the good ones get views (camera angles and hip-hop beats do not hurt either). That headline or image can catch you, think it catches all of us. We do not want to talk about the next Cuttino Mobley, we want the next Ray Allen. Why settle for the next Rudy Gay or Scottie Pippen when you can have the next LeBron James or Michael Jordan? Their is a big uncertainty as to who these guys will become, however I think most people want the best. They want to aim high rather than settle for somewhere in the middle (which is more than often the case).

Well, their have been plenty of guys who have surpassed expectations, countless more who crumble against the pressure. Not everyone can handle being hyped and I for one would like to see these kids get some slack, especially early in their development. The thing is, this stuff is selling and creating interest, excitement for basketball. I know I am happy as hell Canada finally has a prospect that has created enough buzz to get people to get bars to say "There is no way we are going to miss the Kansas game next year!" The expectations for some of these players are unfair, yet at the same time most people seem to much rather have things in the form of a comparison rather than be given a scouting report. When you have 0 sample size of how this person has played in a college setting, it is hard not to expect the best. 

To me, this is also part of what makes the draft so much fun. We are looking at these guys who have a number of ways of going. They could develop into great players, be crucial role guys, fill a starting position or completely flop. Many other ways of going as well, just think that keeping peoples expectations realistic is difficult and it is not something that tends to draw interest, lol. So, I think this is why the hype is what it is and will most likely stay that way. It sells, it gives people something to do and something to look forward to.

It causes some really unfair expectations, such as, Andrew Wiggins "needing to score 20 ppg to be the first pick in the draft in 2014." Really? You realize the major freshman who averaged over 20 ppg like Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley, all were drafted after someone who did not average 20 ppg? Just food for thought. I think Andrew Wiggins is expected to play well, to score 15-18 ppg, 7-8 rpg and to me, that will probably be enough to be a game changer. His defensive potential is vast and he is a person you always need to take into account.

I think he will need to show some serious flaws or have players put up insane numbers to knock him off his perch. However, people already have those ridiculous expectations due to guys like Melo, Durant and Beasley killing their freshman season. Andrew Wiggins will have to be good, just do not think he NEEDS to put up a season like those guys to be the #1 pick. He just needs to keep showing scouts why they see him as a better prospect than anyone else in the 2014 draft.

Finally, I will give a couple of recent examples of perception effecting expectation. One is last season with Andre Drummond. Yes, Andre Drummond was at times a tad underwhelming as a freshman. He had a terrible tournament game against Iowa State and was lack luster with a few bright spots. Still, he finished averaging 10 ppg in 28.4 mpg. Enough for many to classify him as having a "bad" freshman season. Why do I bring this up? Well, Rodney Hood averaged 10.3 ppg in 32.8 mpg at Mississippi St his freshman year, which many considered a "good" freshman season. I know Drummond and Hood do not play the same position, plus while both were 5 star prospects, Drummond clearly has a higher standard due to his freakish combo of size/athleticism. Just really felt that while Hood did not have a bad freshman season, I think people were a little tough on Drummond due to an oversized expectation.

This year with Shabazz Muhammad was another thing. I realize why Muhammad has slipped as far as draft stock, was kind of blown away to learn about the age thing, found it a tad strange/disconcerting. Plus, he really did not show much of an all-around game, with his defense being mediocre at best and his shot selection shaky. Still, the guy came in and was a constant scorer, plus showed his game as an offensive rebounder. How much better did people think he would play in his first season? Meanwhile, Gary Harris exceeds expectations, while at the same time not showing much beyond scoring, plus carrying a nagging shoulder injury throughout the season. Chad Ford shoots him to the moon, almost overtaking Shabazz Muhammad. I guess they play similar positions, my point is, be weary of expectations and of comparisons. Everyone is different and just because a person does not live up to what they get marked as being capable of doing, it does not mean that the supposed overachiever deserves a gigantic boost for besting ones standards.

Rant over, lol. One of my longer posts in a while, just a few things on my mind. I agree that expectations are becoming ridiculous and I have never been big on comparisons, as I do believe that every player has something different. Plus, one never knows whether you giving a comparison based on playing style, statistical expectation or size, etc. Still, they tend to majorly appeal to people and that is why I think they are used. Not to mention that they are usually set to a high standard, because people try to be "optimistic", lol. Being "realistic" tends to cause less disappointment, just does not really create the same excitement as having "optimism".

[What The DevilParticipant]

Thanks man. That puts a lot of things in perspective that I hadn’t thought about. Good post even if it was a teeny bit on the long side.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I know it was long, just included quite a few things I had been thinking about/saying to people in real life before. If all that is wrong with it is its length (though I am sure there is more than that), I am good with it.  Appreciate you saying that, glad that I could hit on some concepts of why the hype machine hits the way it does.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I know it was long, just included quite a few things I had been thinking about/saying to people in real life before. If all that is wrong with it is its length (though I am sure there is more than that), I am good with it.  Appreciate you saying that, glad that I could hit on some concepts of why the hype machine hits the way it does.

[What The DevilParticipant]

Thanks man. That puts a lot of things in perspective that I hadn’t thought about. Good post even if it was a teeny bit on the long side.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I think that is the thing. Truly do think people being antsy and not willing to wait things out is a major reason. How many threads were made surrounding where Andrew Wiggins was going to college? Or who he compares to in the NBA? Or if he is better than Jabari Parker/Julius Randle, or some other former prospect? Or what he is going to average next year or in the NBA? It gives us something to talk about until that actually happens. Time may fly by, just does not seem that way when he has just chosen a college.

Prognostication gives us something to do until than. It is why they hype up the Super Bowl for two weeks, going through countless stories/scenarios. Preseason predicting seems to start earlier and earlier as well. Because I think people on the whole get tired of waiting. So, we fill this time talking about the future. If you are part of the media, be it television, online or otherwise, you need to write about something. If seemingly nothing is going on, or what happens to be going on is not that exciting, than excitement is created in guessing what might happen to make things better.

As bad as hyping up young players can be, it is part of what has made the NBA successful as a league. It is built on its stars, marketing individuals who excel at something has always seemed to be larger than hyping a team to the greater public. George Mikan used to be a major headline, with many following. You had Pettit, Cousy, Russell, Chamberlain, Robertson, West, Abdul-Jabbar and others, though I think that the tide of marketing a remarkable athlete began to change around the time of Julius Erving. He was an incredible athlete who used to do athletic maneuvers few had seen before. Think it is safe to say that after the ABA/NBA merger, Doc was the most popular player in the league.

I think that the league office and David Stern picked up on selling this form of entertainment with marketing their stars. Magic and Bird were huge of course, than came Michael Jordan who just revolutionized the marketing of a professional athlete. Guess the point I am trying to get across is, excelling as an individual tends to sell. I also think winning is most definitely important, just people tend to want to see you win while doing something amazing. A basketball purist sees Tim Duncan as amazing. The media sees him as boring. It is kind of a shame, yet plays into why some of these guys are hyped.

OJ Mayo was tearing up high school kids when he was still in middle school. Hell, do people remember his site, OJMayo.org. That kid started marketing himself young and it worked. Andrew Wiggins getting seen as doing amazing things as a 13 year old does not hurt either. That Seventh Woods mixtape now dwarfs that mixtape in views. Social media is blowing up and people want to get news instantly, which makes an even greater demand for content, which after all what these comparisons are hyping up.

The reason expectations get set high is become excellence sells. It gets clicks. Would you rather click on a player who is "pretty good" or "one of the best at his position in the nation?" Well, chances are you are going to click on the headline giving the guy more hype. That is why these video sites are smart to do that and I think part of the reason the good ones get views (camera angles and hip-hop beats do not hurt either). That headline or image can catch you, think it catches all of us. We do not want to talk about the next Cuttino Mobley, we want the next Ray Allen. Why settle for the next Rudy Gay or Scottie Pippen when you can have the next LeBron James or Michael Jordan? Their is a big uncertainty as to who these guys will become, however I think most people want the best. They want to aim high rather than settle for somewhere in the middle (which is more than often the case).

Well, their have been plenty of guys who have surpassed expectations, countless more who crumble against the pressure. Not everyone can handle being hyped and I for one would like to see these kids get some slack, especially early in their development. The thing is, this stuff is selling and creating interest, excitement for basketball. I know I am happy as hell Canada finally has a prospect that has created enough buzz to get people to get bars to say "There is no way we are going to miss the Kansas game next year!" The expectations for some of these players are unfair, yet at the same time most people seem to much rather have things in the form of a comparison rather than be given a scouting report. When you have 0 sample size of how this person has played in a college setting, it is hard not to expect the best. 

To me, this is also part of what makes the draft so much fun. We are looking at these guys who have a number of ways of going. They could develop into great players, be crucial role guys, fill a starting position or completely flop. Many other ways of going as well, just think that keeping peoples expectations realistic is difficult and it is not something that tends to draw interest, lol. So, I think this is why the hype is what it is and will most likely stay that way. It sells, it gives people something to do and something to look forward to.

It causes some really unfair expectations, such as, Andrew Wiggins "needing to score 20 ppg to be the first pick in the draft in 2014." Really? You realize the major freshman who averaged over 20 ppg like Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley, all were drafted after someone who did not average 20 ppg? Just food for thought. I think Andrew Wiggins is expected to play well, to score 15-18 ppg, 7-8 rpg and to me, that will probably be enough to be a game changer. His defensive potential is vast and he is a person you always need to take into account.

I think he will need to show some serious flaws or have players put up insane numbers to knock him off his perch. However, people already have those ridiculous expectations due to guys like Melo, Durant and Beasley killing their freshman season. Andrew Wiggins will have to be good, just do not think he NEEDS to put up a season like those guys to be the #1 pick. He just needs to keep showing scouts why they see him as a better prospect than anyone else in the 2014 draft.

Finally, I will give a couple of recent examples of perception effecting expectation. One is last season with Andre Drummond. Yes, Andre Drummond was at times a tad underwhelming as a freshman. He had a terrible tournament game against Iowa State and was lack luster with a few bright spots. Still, he finished averaging 10 ppg in 28.4 mpg. Enough for many to classify him as having a "bad" freshman season. Why do I bring this up? Well, Rodney Hood averaged 10.3 ppg in 32.8 mpg at Mississippi St his freshman year, which many considered a "good" freshman season. I know Drummond and Hood do not play the same position, plus while both were 5 star prospects, Drummond clearly has a higher standard due to his freakish combo of size/athleticism. Just really felt that while Hood did not have a bad freshman season, I think people were a little tough on Drummond due to an oversized expectation.

This year with Shabazz Muhammad was another thing. I realize why Muhammad has slipped as far as draft stock, was kind of blown away to learn about the age thing, found it a tad strange/disconcerting. Plus, he really did not show much of an all-around game, with his defense being mediocre at best and his shot selection shaky. Still, the guy came in and was a constant scorer, plus showed his game as an offensive rebounder. How much better did people think he would play in his first season? Meanwhile, Gary Harris exceeds expectations, while at the same time not showing much beyond scoring, plus carrying a nagging shoulder injury throughout the season. Chad Ford shoots him to the moon, almost overtaking Shabazz Muhammad. I guess they play similar positions, my point is, be weary of expectations and of comparisons. Everyone is different and just because a person does not live up to what they get marked as being capable of doing, it does not mean that the supposed overachiever deserves a gigantic boost for besting ones standards.

Rant over, lol. One of my longer posts in a while, just a few things on my mind. I agree that expectations are becoming ridiculous and I have never been big on comparisons, as I do believe that every player has something different. Plus, one never knows whether you giving a comparison based on playing style, statistical expectation or size, etc. Still, they tend to majorly appeal to people and that is why I think they are used. Not to mention that they are usually set to a high standard, because people try to be "optimistic", lol. Being "realistic" tends to cause less disappointment, just does not really create the same excitement as having "optimism".

[omphalosParticipant]

Also let’s not forget about Harrison Barnes, whose hype train has been more like a rollercoaster in the last few years. I bought in on Barnes in his senior year in high school, I liked his demeanour and he seemed intelligent. I watched as many UNC games as were shown over here, and while he wasn’t playing great at UNC, I knew it was only a matter of time before he pick it up, and sure enough he did, culminating in a 40 point game as a freshman.

Of course, then he came back to school along with his classmates, and people were disappointed he didn’t make “the jump”, but at the end of the day, there weren’t more shots available, he was already an efficient player and Henson, Marshall going down really hurt him. Plus, Roy Williams likes to run the break and pack the paint, giving it to his bigs. None of these things helped Barnes, and led people to question his “athleticism” because he wasn’t driving very often.

Then he shows up at the combine and records a ridiculous no-step vertical, but somehow people got caught up with MKG’s success at Kentucky as a role player and discredited Barnes’ achievements as the go-to guy. So he inexplicably falls to 7th in the draft, which was perfect for the Warriors.

However, while he proves he has athleticism, he is still a team-first guy, and on a GS team loaded with scorers he doesn’t get much of an opportunity, plays limited minutes in the regular season despite being the starter and people sleep on him.

Then the playoffs come around and all these people go nuts about how skilled he is, his athleticism, his potential, etc etc because he gets more looks after Lee went down.

In the game just played you saw how good a player he could be, and people say things like “if we knew then what we knew now”, and the fact is, we DID know those things, but we chose to forget them because we are impatient.

Barnes is already my second favourite player in the NBA behind Rondo, and I just have to shake my head at the casual fans who look at his statistics and say “not good enough” instead of realising how those stats came about.

I’m telling you now, the same thing will happen with Shabazz Muhammad, the kid is going to be a great NBA player, but people are going to let the hype blind them, and I’ll be looking at them and chuckling.

Also, as far as Drummond is concerned, people always bring up stats, but they don’t think about how the stats happened, Drummond was given virtually no looks in the post, UConn was missing its coach for much of the season, Lamb was gunning away trying to prep for the pros and Napier is not a pass-first PG by any stretch. UConn has a history of big men, sure, but they have largely underwhelmed in the pros because they are used only defensively at UConn, UConn doesn’t give big men an opportunity to show their offensive game, it was a bad place for Drummond to attend and hurt his stock. So people are saying “he surprised me”, well no, he didn’t really, he’s just doing what we expected him to do in the NBA, but people can’t see the long picture and they’re so afraid of drafting a “bust” that they would rather go for a guy who is new on the scene than someone who has had their moment in the sun.

People fail to realise that just because people aren’t talking about a player doesn’t mean the player isn’t just as good, it just means that people are overthinking it by focusing on what they can’t do, or have gotten bored and moved on to some one else.

I see Wiggins putting up Barnes-type numbers at Kansas, and honestly, I can see his stock possibly dropping if he struggles early, because like Barnes, he doesn’t have a selfish personality, struggles somewhat to create his own shot and is on a team which isn’t big on isolation plays.

Hype, expectation and “failure” is a good way to put it, because basketball fans are too impatient to realise that someone never failed.

I also think people have inflated expectations of college performance because of Beasley and Durant.

[omphalosParticipant]

Also let’s not forget about Harrison Barnes, whose hype train has been more like a rollercoaster in the last few years. I bought in on Barnes in his senior year in high school, I liked his demeanour and he seemed intelligent. I watched as many UNC games as were shown over here, and while he wasn’t playing great at UNC, I knew it was only a matter of time before he pick it up, and sure enough he did, culminating in a 40 point game as a freshman.

Of course, then he came back to school along with his classmates, and people were disappointed he didn’t make “the jump”, but at the end of the day, there weren’t more shots available, he was already an efficient player and Henson, Marshall going down really hurt him. Plus, Roy Williams likes to run the break and pack the paint, giving it to his bigs. None of these things helped Barnes, and led people to question his “athleticism” because he wasn’t driving very often.

Then he shows up at the combine and records a ridiculous no-step vertical, but somehow people got caught up with MKG’s success at Kentucky as a role player and discredited Barnes’ achievements as the go-to guy. So he inexplicably falls to 7th in the draft, which was perfect for the Warriors.

However, while he proves he has athleticism, he is still a team-first guy, and on a GS team loaded with scorers he doesn’t get much of an opportunity, plays limited minutes in the regular season despite being the starter and people sleep on him.

Then the playoffs come around and all these people go nuts about how skilled he is, his athleticism, his potential, etc etc because he gets more looks after Lee went down.

In the game just played you saw how good a player he could be, and people say things like “if we knew then what we knew now”, and the fact is, we DID know those things, but we chose to forget them because we are impatient.

Barnes is already my second favourite player in the NBA behind Rondo, and I just have to shake my head at the casual fans who look at his statistics and say “not good enough” instead of realising how those stats came about.

I’m telling you now, the same thing will happen with Shabazz Muhammad, the kid is going to be a great NBA player, but people are going to let the hype blind them, and I’ll be looking at them and chuckling.

Also, as far as Drummond is concerned, people always bring up stats, but they don’t think about how the stats happened, Drummond was given virtually no looks in the post, UConn was missing its coach for much of the season, Lamb was gunning away trying to prep for the pros and Napier is not a pass-first PG by any stretch. UConn has a history of big men, sure, but they have largely underwhelmed in the pros because they are used only defensively at UConn, UConn doesn’t give big men an opportunity to show their offensive game, it was a bad place for Drummond to attend and hurt his stock. So people are saying “he surprised me”, well no, he didn’t really, he’s just doing what we expected him to do in the NBA, but people can’t see the long picture and they’re so afraid of drafting a “bust” that they would rather go for a guy who is new on the scene than someone who has had their moment in the sun.

People fail to realise that just because people aren’t talking about a player doesn’t mean the player isn’t just as good, it just means that people are overthinking it by focusing on what they can’t do, or have gotten bored and moved on to some one else.

I see Wiggins putting up Barnes-type numbers at Kansas, and honestly, I can see his stock possibly dropping if he struggles early, because like Barnes, he doesn’t have a selfish personality, struggles somewhat to create his own shot and is on a team which isn’t big on isolation plays.

Hype, expectation and “failure” is a good way to put it, because basketball fans are too impatient to realise that someone never failed.

I also think people have inflated expectations of college performance because of Beasley and Durant.

[Author]

Posts