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Bmore_DC 12 years, 4 months ago.
Tyroberhttp://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7304119/nba-chris-paul-dwight-howard-trade-scenarios
There’s what we know, and what we speculate. The speculation is about where Chris Pauland Dwight Howard might end up. The part we know, however, is that it almost certainly won’t be New Orleans or Orlando.
As our Chris Broussard reported earlier this week, the Hornets plan on offering Paul an extension and trading him if he doesn’t accept it. Although it’s financially more lucrative for him to accept the extension, it appears he won’t. Meanwhile, our intrepid Marc Stein says Orlando GM Otis Smith is already sounding out potential trade partners for Howard.
As Broussard reported, Paul’s first choice is to join the Knicks as a free agent, but that’s the least rewarding option financially. As I outlined earlier this week, even in the best-case scenario, the Knicks can offer him only a four-year deal worth about $57 million; in comparison, he can make $73 million over four years with a team that has full max-contract room under the cap ($17.18 million) or $98 million over five years by staying with the Hornets.
Even that $57 million scenario presumes a total demolition job by the Knicks that leaves them with just two players under contract; in any scenario in which the Knicks want to keep any other player besides Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, millions less are available for CP. As our Tom Haberstroh put it, the Knicks with just Paul, Stoudemire and Anthony would have 3 of the best 13 players in the NBA … and 12 of the 12 worst around them.
What’s true for CP in New York is equally true for Howard, sans the wedding toast. He seems to be angling for relocation just as much as Paul but faces the same obstacles to a Big Apple endgame.
Moreover, money is only the second obstacle for both. The first is that the Hornets and Magic would likely try to trade Paul and Howard, respectively, long before either became a free agent. New rules on extend-and-trade deals, however, may inhibit them from getting full value.
(At least that’s what the day-to-day leadership in New Orleans wants to do. However, in this case, this could get political because the NBA owns the team, and the last thing it want to see — in light of the competitive balance issue — is another star player strong-arming a trade or another "Superfriends" team forming. Moreover, it’s unlikely a sale would be completed in time to allow the new owners to deal Paul before the trade deadline, meaning this will be the league’s call.)
Because a team acquiring Howard or Paul would want some assurance that he’ll stick around, each can exert some control over his destination. Trading one or the other as a one-year rental is likely to get far less in return.
Nonetheless, let’s walk through the possibilities. If Paul and/or Howard is indeed traded, here are the ones that make the most sense both because they are destinations where they might agree to stick around and because they send the requisite goods back (or remove them, in some cases — you’ll notice a lot of these trades involve simultaneously dumping as many bad contracts as possible).
Side note: I didn’t list it here, but one consideration that will likely be in any deal involving Paul is the league-maximum $3 million going back to the Hornets, given that the team is a ward of the state.
On to the trade scenarios …
Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza and Aaron Gray to New York for Carmelo Anthony, Toney Douglas, Iman Shumpert and Chauncey Billups.
I continue to believe this is the only plausible way in which Paul can land with the Knicks. The nice thing from the Hornets’ perspective is they get a centerpiece star, some young-ish assets and a chance to start over in return. While I made this a two-team deal and included Billups, he’d almost certainly be flipped to a third squad for expiring contracts and/or additional assets — say, for instance, to Indiana for Darren Collison. The Hornets could take their time with that part, though, and hang on to Billups until the trade deadline.
(Random side note: There’s one little free-agency tidbit everyone in Gotham seems to be glossing over in the CP mania — while the Knicks don’t have enough projected cap room for Paul or Deron Williams, New York absolutely has enough cap space to sign 2012 free agent and part-time Big Apple resident Steve Nash.)
As for Paul, one presumes he’d still agree to go to New York even without his fellow wedding toastee, Anthony, especially since he could opt out after the season and sign for the full Bird Rights deal of five years, $99 million with his first-choice destination … and the Knicks would have enough room to sign another free agent to a large (although not a max) contract.
Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Chris Duhon to New Jersey for Brook Lopez, Jordan Farmar, New Jersey’s 2012 first-round pick and Golden State’s 2012 first-round pick.
This is a strong offer that basically puts the Nets a step ahead of every team except one in the Howard sweepstakes — they can provide a good young center and give the Magic $25 million in cap relief. Remember, too, that in sunny, tax-free Florida, cap space is worth a lot more than it is in other places; while the Magic’s history with retaining franchise centers is a bit off-putting, in general they’ve had great success luring players to take their money.
Plus, New Jersey may be able to further sweeten the pot via a sign-and-trade of Kris Humphries to Orlando; it really costs the Nets nothing since they have to renounce Humphries anyway to do this deal, so it’s really just a question of whether the Magic want him at his market price. New Jersey would also need to grant amnesty to Travis Outlaw and waive the non-guaranteed Stephen Graham to make this deal, two bits of housekeeping they are likely to do anyway.
Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, and Courtney Lee to the Clippers; Eric Bledsoe,DeAndre Jordan, Terrence Williams, Brian Cook, Minnesota’s unprotected 2012 first-round pick and the Clippers’ 2012 first-round pick to Orlando; Chris Kaman and the Clippers’ 2014 first-round pick to Houston.
This is the only potential offer that trumps what New Jersey has on the table, and it also gets Howard to a preferred destination in L.A. The Clippers can offer the Magic similar cap relief to the New Jersey deal, a likely high lottery pick from Minnesota, an athletic young point guard in Bledsoe and a promising big man in Jordan, in addition to a 2012 pick of their own.
The Magic will push hard to get Eric Gordon out of this trade, but I believe L.A.’s offer wins even without Gordon. Jordan isn’t quite as good as Lopez, but the draft picks and prospects the Clips can add to this deal are better. Also, Jordan would have to agree to a sign-and-trade to Orlando for this deal to work; there are worse places to end up.
I threw in another wrinkle to this deal and sent Kaman and a first-round pick to Houston for Courtney Lee, but this deal also works if Kaman goes straight to Orlando. Kaman and Lee both have expiring deals, but Houston needs a center a lot more than a wing, while the Clippers would be in the opposite situation following a Howard trade.
Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza to the Clippers for Eric Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Kaman and Minnesota’s unprotected 2012 first-round pick.
This is the best deal on the board for the Hornets, allowing New Orleans to dump all their contracts, get a likely high lottery pick and add a young building block center and a developing point guard. As with the Howard deal above, New Orleans will lobby for Gordon and the Clips will resist. Also, as with the one above, Jordan would have to agree to a sign-and-trade.
But the real problem for the Hornets is that this deal is only second in the Clippers’ hierarchy, and while in their fantasy world they would get Paul and Howard, back on this planet they almost certainly only have the goods to do one or the other. That means the Clips will only pursue this deal for Paul if Howard is off the table.
Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu to the Lakers for Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Andrew Goudelock and the Lakers’ first-round picks in 2012 and 2014.
I like the two offers above better, but the Magic would have to at least consider this one. Ideally L.A. would put Bynum and Lamar Odom in the deal and keep Gasol, but that’s not a winning bid because both will be free agents in two years, leaving the Magic going through this whole song and dance all over again.
That’s why I think the only deal with the Lakers that really works would be for L.A. to offer Bynum and Pau Gasol, and as good as Howard is, I suspect the Lakers would be reticent to include both bigs in a deal like this.
This also has the side effect of killing the Laker-land fantasy of getting both Howard and Paul by trading Gasol and Bynum. They need Gasol and Bynum just to land Howard, and they aren’t getting CP for Lamar Odom.
Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor to the Lakers for Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Steve Blake and Devin Ebanks.
I’m not sure Paul is a great fit for how the Lakers want to play, but if the Lakers really wanted him this is the way to do it — they can offer two starting bigs and a pile of cap relief, essentially allowing the Hornets to completely start over (the imported Lakers and Jarrett Jack would be the only players with guaranteed money in 2012-13).
I’m pretty lukewarm on this one; while Paul would gladly go to L.A., there seem to be better deals out there for both sides. The Lakers would face some fearsome luxury tax hits after this trade and have some major frontcourt depth issues, while the Hornets can get more young talent from other teams.
Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza to Boston; Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and Emeka Okafor to Indiana; Brandon Rush, Darren Collison, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, Glen Davis and Boston’s first-round pick in 2012 to New Orleans.
We know that CP isn’t gung ho about going to Boston, but consider this provocative question from our J.A. Adande: Would Boston rent Paul? The risk isn’t as high as for some other squads:Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen both have expiring deals, and the Celtics could be in position to completely start over after this season even if Paul leaves, with only Paul Pierce under contract.
The other piece that needs to happen is Davis agreeing to a sign-and-trade; the LSU product would have a starting gig waiting for him in New Orleans, so I imagine he’d be amenable.
There’s also a risk here for the Pacers, who would be cashing in most of their young-talent chips to get Rondo. Ideally they’d do this deal without the de facto Hibbert-Okafor trade, and I’m sure they’re very reluctant to part with a rather talented young wingman in George. However, there are several combinations of outgoing players from Indiana that make this deal work (one that’s intriguing: including New Orleans-raised Danny Granger), depending on the tastes of the Hornets and Pacers. I have to think they could agree on something if the basic parameters worked for all three sides.
While I think this deal is unlikely, Boston is the one team most likely to pursue Paul without a contract extension, and a three-way deal with Rondo is probably how it would go down.
Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, Jarrett Jack and Emeka Okafor to Atlanta for Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague.
Paul wanted to come to Atlanta in the infamous 2005 draft that saw the Hawks instead select Marvin Williams, and our Chris Broussard just reported that Atlanta is still on the list.
So allow me to speak for all Atlantans for a second:
HE’D CONSIDER US!!! HE SAID HE’D CONSIDER US!!!!
Now that we have that out of the way … it’s highly unlikely CP is coming to Atlanta, given that the team is arguably on even shakier financial footing than the Hornets and the Hawks would likely have to trade their best young assets to get him. The best-case scenario for the Hawks is for the deal to cost them only one of Horford and Smith and not both, but it seems like that bid would easily be trumped by some of the others above.
You’ll excuse the locals for getting all geeked up about this though, as it’s the first time a superstar mentioned wanting to play here since Mt. Mutombo arrived nearly two decades ago.
Chris Paul to Oklahoma City for Russell Westbrook.
Not happening. Move along. Nothing to see here.
Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack to Golden State for Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis,Klay Thompson, Ekpe Udoh and Dorell Wright.
Would CP consider Golden State? The Bay Area is the nation’s fourth-largest market and has drawn huge crowds to see awful teams for the past two decades. He’d get to play with a great pick-and-roll finisher in David Lee and stay with his best buddy Jack, and he joins some solid role players on a franchise that is both willing to spend and in a good financial position to do so. Sadly, including Udoh in the deal means we’ll never get to see how many times a game CP could hit him in the head with a pass.
This deal would leave the Warriors a bit shorthanded on the wings, especially if Reggie Williams walks. But using the amnesty on either Charlie Bell or Andris Biedrins and topping it off with the "under-cap" MLE should allow them to fill those spots relatively easily; they won’t be lacking for volunteers to play with CP, that’s for sure.
From New Orleans’ end, what’s nice about this deal is that it’s not a "give-up" strategy — the Hornets would still have a real team, and a fairly young one at that. The only drawback is that the Warriors can’t put any enticing draft picks into the deal because they already owe a future first to New Jersey from the horrendous Marcus Williams trade a couple years ago. Their past two first-rounders — Thompson and Udoh — are the best they can do.
Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza to Houston for Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry, Marcus Morris,Luis Scola, and the better of Phoenix’s, Houston’s or New York’s 2012 first-round pick.
Would CP consider Houston? An offseason magnet for NBA players for reasons that utterly escape me, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility … nor is it insane to think Houston, like Boston, would consider acquiring Paul as a rental.
As for the trade itself, the Rockets have a lot of good assets and no great ones, which is a bit problematic. The draft picks are fairly alluring (I only put one in this deal, but Houston could include as many as four first-rounders), the players less so.
Budinger has the best contract in the league, making $900K each of the next two seasons, but he may not be a long-term starter. The other assets have some value, too: Scola lets the Hornets fill David West’s vacated spot; Lowry is an underrated bulldog who can take over for CP at the point; and Morris provides a lottery combo forward to further the rebuilding. Plus, it’s fun to watch Houston and New Orleans bat that awful Ariza contract back and forth like a tetherball.
Alas, there are no future All-Stars in this haul for the Hornets, which is why I file it under "highly unlikely." But it won’t be from a lack of Houston trying.
AND FINALLY, THE ONE I WANT TO SEE …
LeBron James to Orlando for Dwight Howard.
The two best players in the league — traded for each other! This needs to happen.
And really, this trade would help both teams. Miami solves the alpha dog dilemma with Dwyane Wade and James, whose whole was less than the sum last season, and gets a better complementary offensive player to go with Wade, not to mention a devastating defensive presence.
Orlando, meanwhile, would get to keep a superstar in town despite losing Howard, because James has three years left on his deal. Sure, he’d go Decision II on them at the end, but just before he hit free agency they could trade him for a King’s ransom (you see what I did there? Six months off and 2,700 words in, and I still can make you cringe).
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