The general consensus seems to be that Noel will still be a top 10 pick, and I find this sentiment to be a little risky for such a high pick. Everyone is cheering for Noel, he's a good kid, super talented, and a great attitude towards his unfortunate injury and its hard to not wish him the best, but by June, he won't even be half way through his rehab.
This is an era where teams get spooked by injury. Sullingers back dropped him at least 5 spots and he's now out with a back injury. Dejuan Blair's knees dropped him an entire round. A false rumor about Darrell Arthur's kidney dropped him 10 spots and the list goes on and on.
I may be wrong, but not everyone is Adrian Peterson and this injury just took out two of the best players in the NBA in the past calendar year. I just have a hard time a team will draft Noel with a top 10 pick in 4 months. Maybe late lotto or mid teens for a playoff team that may have a legit PF or C already.
Everything that I have read (and seen) is that he is a unique talent with an exceptional (and seemingly inherent) defensive timing and shot blocking ability. Based on that alone and what I have seen in his limited stint with Kentucky, if I am a top ten team who is lacking an inside defensive presence, I roll the dice and gamble on this kid.
I think he will maintain his status as a top 5 pick. Scouts have seen enough of his college games to figure out what type of player he will become, the tough task now is rehab and recovering from the injury. Kyrie Irving played a total of 8 college games and was still the #1 pick. If he can show he is on track for recovery when the combine comes around, then I think teams will draft him no later than top 5.
Irving was healthy at the end of the NCAA season and dropped 28 points in his last college game. Noel won't even be doing full contact practice in June.
while this is true....Irving's condition was thought to be potentially career threatening if re-injured. however unlikely that was, there was some concerns about his durability, so I wouldnt say drafting Irving didnt come without a certain amount of concern or risk. does this injury concern scouts about Noel? I am sure it does....but there is only so far he is gonna slide because some organization is out there licking their chops.
Dejuan Blair had no ACLs coming out of college and he was an undersized center, totally different situation.
He was expected by many to be a 15-20 range pick. He plummeted down the board because of his knees.
He he was lotto bound but guys with Noel's athleticism, size, defensive instincts don't come walking through the door everyday. He's only 18 and with the way modern medicine is tearing his ACL isn't a death sentence. Blair had ZERO ACLs in his knees
I agree about Blair, and I also would like to add, I dont know of any chronic issues with Noel. Sullinger had chronic back problems. The injury Noel suffered could have happened to anyone. Total freak injury. Also, I like Noel's body as opposed to a guy like Oden, who is all top heavy and his upper body adds stress on his legs and knees. I like him in my top 5...and a no-brainer still in the top 10.
I think the Cavs should gamble on him. They have insurance in AV and Zeller. They severely need a defensive presence around the rim, a shot blocker. Tristan was a great shot blocker in college but he seemed to have lost that presence of mind somewhere in his transition to the NBA. I think Noel could be a great piece for the cavs, and is worth the risk. He's an exceptional talent - as long as he rehabs correctly he will remain so.
Doubt it'll happen but I'd be happy to see him in a 76ers uniform. Even if he does have to sit out a year, still would be a good addition to a team!
Blair, is still missing his ACL's.
PJIII's stock plummuted too due to knee concerns. But I believe his was cartilege related, like Roy.
Overall, I have not read that Noel's injury is not 100% recoverable, so I would still take the kid.
If he just landed normally and it tore, I could see how teams might be scared to pick him as it might be a chronic issue in that case. But his knee completely buckled sideways. Anyone's ACL would've torn if they did what he did. I think he'll recover and be back just the same as he was before he got hurt
but kenyon martin was on a very similar situation and still went no.1. During what was percieved to be a weak draft year
He was also older and alot stronger overall but a similar type player as I think about it
Noel is in a whole nother league far as potential and talent wise go compared to Dejaun Blair, Jared Sullinger, plus another knock on those guys is they were undersized.
Noel is 18 years old, a true 7 footer and has alot of talent and potential, Noel will recover and possibly be even better by the time next year rolls around, the thing that's going to really save Noel is that before he got hurt his last few games he really started to blossom and thats the last thing the scouts will remember, besides the injury.
In my eyes, the problem with Noel isn't the injury so much as the fact he just is not that good a prospect. What exactly differentiates him from John Henson other than the fact Henson will occasionally flash a skill offensively. Neither are big enough to guard a real big man with any sort of skill, so they would be matchup dependent if a team tries to compete with them. People fall in love with shot blockers, but it doesn't pay off with lottery picks when they don't offer much else.
How is Noel not a good prospect? Look at John Hensons freshman year compared to Noel's. Noel is more than a shotblocker he is a fabulous passer, a very good help defender, and he can play the passing lanes well
The difference is the presence of Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, and Deon Thompson and the fact that UNC didn't assemble the kind of cupcake schedule Kentucky did. When Kentucky has played competitive teams, Noel wasn't very good and neither was Kentucky. It is nice to throw up big numbers against bad teams, but not all that meaningful for an NBA prospect. Passing the ball against LIU Brooklyn doesn't make him Greg Monroe.
If he is smart he stays. Get your education. He has insurance if he can't play pro so get a degree.
So.... the smart move would be to get his education just in case, rather than getting a few million dollars now which he could spend a small portion of on tuition if the worst comes to pass....
And how many of these guys who come out early end up broke with nothing to land on? An awful lot. Guys who made over a hundred million are now broke. Come on. He has no real skill set. He runs and jumps and his ceiling is Camby the definition of a Journeyman but he isn't close to Camby.
Anyone who spends money faster then they make it ends up broke, college education or no. If staying in school is more likely to cost you millions of dollars in lost revenue (because we all know a raw freshman will get picked before a polished senior every time), then coming out early and using some of the millions of dollars you receive on tuition is the smart move. Or just not wasting all of the money, if you're not interested in your education.
While an ACL injury isn't career ending anymore and we're hearing more and more success stories, I don't think people realize just how serious it still is. It really tests you physically and mentally.
First, look at the way the surgery is done. You're either using a graft from your hamstring, patella tendon or a donor ligament. IF you're harvesting it from your own body, there's a possibility of you getting weakness in that area. Taking it from the patella tendon comes attached with a piece of bone, so there's a possibility of patella tendinitis. A donor ligament doesn't come from your own body, but those supposedly stretch more over time. Then once the graft is determined, there are holes drilled in your bone and then screws placed there to hold up the graft until it fuses with the bone. This surgery is no joke... That's why it's called reconstructive surgery.
I don't think people realize that you have to basically learn to walk again with that leg after surgery. Your quad is basically gone. You have to rebuild that, which is the biggest part of the recovery and the physical therapy is hard, especially if you have scar tissue that needs to be broken up.
I'm not saying this kid won't come back 100%, but I think it's crazy to act like he's a no brainer top five pick still. He's got a looong journey ahead of him. This is his first major injury and it's the scariest one for an athletic athlete, especially one who relies on it primarily. It takes two full years to return to normal for this injury. This is a tough injury both physically and mentally.
Maurice Creek had an ACL tear and now look at him.
He will be a top 5 pick in this draft because let's face it, this draft sucks! Might be one of the worst drafts ever. Say someone like the Bobcats or Kings take him, he sits out this year and they have a lottery pick next year and take someone like Wiggins or Parker...Win win situation.
WHAT?? Maurice Cheeks? He's like 50 and he's coaching! What type of comparison is that???? And the technology that have now is way more advance then it was in the 80s. And I disagree with the dude who says get a "degree" get drafted make millions and go back and get your degree! College isn't going anywhere. Stay in college an extra year lose significant amount of money like PJ3 and Jared Sully did.
Plays for IU looked like a first round lock in a year as a freshmen then blew his knee out. No one knows what he can do and no one at the top of the draft can afford to wait. GM's lose jobs on healthy players like him, let alone one who is hurt
I think he will drop further than most of you above believe.
He will be MID rehab. Probably not even close to returning. Bad teams don't have the time to invest in a guy who may not be ready until late in the season, when he isn't a slam dunk. I agree with BTPH on many levels. Sure he's had some nice passing games, and some huge shotblocking numbers. But vs who? Sure he'll be a shot blocker, but his offensive game is so weak and incomplete, he was worth the risk as a high pick in this lottery, but I think with this injury he slides a bit.