[TRC1991Participant]

I did 6 previous teams and for those who missed it, here is the link

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/projected-stats-2011-2012-ncaab

 

KANSAS                              PROJ STATS

PG- Tyshawn Taylor            14.7 ppg, 4.2 apg, 2.7 rpg, 1.1 spg

SG- Elijah Johnson              10.8 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.5 rpg, 44% FG

SF- Travis Releford              8.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 41% FG

PF- Thomas Robinson         13.9 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 53% FG

C- Jeff Withey                       6.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.7 bpg, 50% FG

6th- Ben Mclemore               7.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 43% FG

7th- Naadir Thorpe               4.4 ppg, 1.7 apg, 37% FG, 0.6 spg

8th- Jamari Taylor                2.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.4 bpg

UCONN                                 PROJ STATS

PG- Shabazz Napier            12.7 ppg, 3.9 apg, 2.5 rpg, 1.1 spg

SG- Jeremy Lamb                13.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 33% 3PT

SF- Niels Giffey                    5.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 39% 3PT, 1.4 apg

PF- Roscoe Smith                10.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 48% FG, 1.3 apg

C- Alex Oriakhi                     12.9 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 54% FG, 1.4 bpg

6th- Ryan Boatwright            4.4 ppg, 2.2 apg, 2.0 rpg, 17.6 mpg

7th- Tyler Olander                 3.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 40% FG, 0.9 apg

8th- Enosch Wolf                   2.1 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.2 bpg, 9.7 mpg

SYRACUSE                          PROJ STATS

PG- Scoop Jardine               9.5 ppg, 4.4 apg, 1.9 spg, 42% FG

SG- Brandon Triche             10.5 ppg, 4.9 apg, 3.6 rpg, 44% FG

SF- Kris Joseph                    13.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.9 spg

PF- CJ Fair                           8.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 56% FG, 1.1 bpg

C- Rakeem Christmas          11.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 53% FG, 2.2 bpg

6th- Dion Waiters                  8.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 35% 3PT

7th- Mookie Jones                4.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 42% FG, 0.5 apg

8th- M. Carter-Williams         3.3 ppg, 1.8 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.5 rpg

FLORIDA                               PROJ STATS

PG- Erving Walker                12.9 ppg, 3.4 apg, 2.9 rpg, 1.0 spg

SG- Kenny Boynton              15.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 32% 3PT

SF- Brad Beal                       13.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 33% 3PT, 2.1 apg

PF- Will Yeguete                    7.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 51% FG, 0.8 apg

C- Patric Young                      9.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 60% FG, 1.5 bpg

6th- Scottie Wilbekin              6.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.4 spg

7th- Casey Prather                 2.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.3 spg

8th- Walter Pitchford              1.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg, 11.2 mpg

MEMPHIS                               PROJ STATS

PG- Joe Jackson                    8.7 ppg, 3.4 apg, 2.2 rpg, 1.6 spg

SG- Chris Crawford                7.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 47% FG

SF- Will Barton                       16.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.7 spg

PF- Wesley Witherspoon        9.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.3 bpg

C- Tarik Black                         7.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 53% FG, 1.2 bpg

6th- Adonis Thomas                7.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 38% FG, 0.9 apg

7th- Charles Carmouche         7.0 ppg, 2.8 apg, 1.4 rpg, 33% 3PT

8th- Antonio Barton                 5.9 ppg, 1.2 apg, 1.3 rpg, 45% 3PT

WASHINGTON                       PROJ STATS

PG- Abdul Gaddy                   8.5 ppg, 3.2 apg, 3.1 rpg, 39% FG

SG- CJ Wilcox                        12.4 ppg, 40% 3PT, 2.3 rpg, 1.2 apg

SF- Terrence Ross                 14.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 41% FG

PF- Darnell Gant                     8.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 47% FG, 1.1 bpg

C- Aziz N’Diaye                       5.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.8 bpgT, 58% FG

6th- Tony Wroten                    9.7 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.0 rpg, 23.2 mpg

7th- Scott Suggs                     5.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 42% 3PT

8th- Desmond Simmons         3.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 42% FG, 14.5 mpg

TEXAS                                     PROJ STATS

PG- Myck Kabongo                12.2 ppg, 4.7 apg, 3.2 rpg, 44% FG

SG- J’Covan Brown                21.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 38% 3PT, 2.5 apg

SF- Sheldon McLellan            5.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 41% FG

PF- Jonathan Holmes            8.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 1.0 spg

C- Alexis Wangmene             7.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 52% FG, 1.4 bpg

6th- Julien Lewis                    4.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 31% 3PT

7th- Kevin Thomas                 3.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 49% FG, 19.8 mpg

8th- Sterling Gibbs                  2.0 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 0.8 apg, 10.4 mpg

MISSOURI                               PROJ STATS

PG- Flip Pressey                     9.3 ppg, 4.1 apg, 34% 3PT, 1.9 spg

SG- Marcus Denmon              17.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 44% FG

SF- Kim English                      10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 43% FG

PF- Laurence Bowers             10.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 1.0 apg

C- Ricardo Ratliffe                   11.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 58% FG, 1.4 bpg

6th- Michael Dixon Jr.              8.8 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.2 rpg, 20.7 mpg

7th- Justin Safford                    4.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 42% FG, 17.6 mpg

8th- Matt Pressey                     3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.4 spg

XAVIER                                    PROJ STATS

PG- Tu Holloway                      18.5 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.4 spg

SG- Mark Lyons                       16.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.8 apg, 36% 3PT

SF- Dezmine Wells                   5.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.5 spg

PF- Jeff Robinson                     9.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 45% FG, 1.1 apg

C- Kenny Frease                      15.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 57% FG, 1.0 bpg

6th- Jay Canty                           4.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, 14.6 mpg

7th- Jalen Reynolds                  2.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.2 apg, 12.9 mpg

8th- Darwin Davis                      2.3 ppg, 1.9 apg, 0.6 spg, 40% FG

 

[Hi its BenParticipant]

 J’Covan Brown 22 PPG? Really?

[Lotto StudParticipant]

Kabongo will avg more then 5 assist per game. All he does is pass

[providencefriars1Participant]

 I just have a couple comments for you. I think Thomas Robinson and Jeremy Lamb will both have huge seasons, you dont like Fab Melo I guess, but he did start to turn it around at the end of the season so im optimistic. Nice job.

[jeff416Participant]

Joe Jackson will average way more than 8.7 ppg. Why would his numbers decrease? He started to played very well at the end of last season, and started to look for his shot more. I think he will average close to 15 ppg next season. Also Adonis Thomas will start, and he will average more than 7.2 ppg.

[gatorheelsParticipant]

 I’m a Florida fan.  Patrick Young is going to average more than 9 points per game.  He should score 13 a game easily.  I also look for Brad Beal to make a huge impact & lead the team in scoring 16 ppg.  Beal is going to shoot better than 33% from 3pt.. I am confident in that. 

[JoeWolf1]

 Thomas Robinson will be a double digit rebounder next season.  I’d expect him to be somewhere between 10 and 11 rpg, his 6.5 last season was in only about 15 minutes.

[cap777Participant]

Nice predictions. Curious about Fab Melo and Mike Rosario though.

[ultrablue123Participant]

 Fab Melo or Baye Moussa-Keita will more than likely start at center for the Orange rather than Christmas.  Christmas will either start at PF or come off the bench, or Keita may start at power forward (or Fair, like you have). 

Also, I’ll poop myself if Mookie Jones plays enough minutes to average 4 ppg.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Taylor,

how many wins do you project Memphis having? Hopefully Witherspoon plays small forward.
He is NOT a power forward.

[Stojakovicfor3Participant]

I think Jeremy Lamb will do better than 13.5ppg. I think he will be around 17.5ppg and about 6.5rpg. I also think Elijah Johnson will have a breakout season. The J’Covan Brown prediction is bold as hell!

[JoeWolf1]

 The Brown prediction is bold, but I like it.  The guy can take over a game and flat out fill it up, 22 is a little high, but again, I like it it might not end up being that far off.

[TRC1991Participant]

good feedback everyone! my bad on forgetting mike rosario. and im not sold on melo one bit, the guy was insanely out of shape and i think james southerland will be more active this season than melo.

 

memphis madness i think the tigers will finish around 25-10 and be a 5 seed in the tourney

[r377Participant]

Nice work, thanks for the effort put in 🙂

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Few observations:

Kentucky: I feel Anthony Davis will probably average more points than Mike Gilchrist, especially since Gilchrist has an established veteran who plays his same position. The scoring at the top should be fairly similar to the 2009-10 system, with the bulk of points coming from Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb and Anthony Davis. Gilchrist will play a big role, but his scoring could indeed be hovering around 10 per game. They averaged 75 per game last year, and you definitely took that into account as they had little production beyond their last 8 players, but I think they will probably be around the 79 per game they had in 2009-10 as well. This team simply has more offensive weapons. Teague should be more of a set-up guy, his scoring may be even below what is listed. Also, Ryan Harrow will have to sit up the transfer year, so that could alter your predictions.

Baylor: Think they definitely find a way to play Quincy Miller as a starter, even if it means starting Jones at Center. Even if he does come off of the bench, I expect a lot more scoring out of him than 10.6 per game. Think Deuce Bello’s numbers are slightly high, and Perry Jones low. Baylor did after all average 69 ppg last year, and you have their core 8 averaging 51. They may score less without a prime target like LaceDarius Dunn, but I expect them to be around that range and for Quincy Miller, Perry Jones and Quincy Acy to pick up a lot of slack.

North Carolina: Pretty good, though still expect Tyler Zeller to score more than John Henson. Last year Tyler tied with Harrison for the lead in team scoring at 15.7 ppg, while Henson averaged 11.7. Tyler is still more of an offensive option. Also, Reggie Bullock has to get some love as well, and I would not be surprised to see PJ Hairston maybe starting at 2 while Dexter Strickland maybe plays back-up point. Either way, they averaged 79 per game and you were very close to that with the scoring make-up of the group. Harrison Barnes should indeed be taking more of the scoring load, but I still feel Zeller should probably be on a couple points within his scoring average last season. Also, for a team that averaged 43 rebounds per game last year, you are far below that projection.

Duke: You have their top 8 averaging 67.1, last year as a team they averaged 81 per game, with only 3 per game outside of their top 8 players. Kelly will definitely take a step up in offensive production, and if Curry does start, expect him to at least be in double figures. Austin Rivers may indeed average what you listed, if not more. He will be a major part of their offense. They lost 37.5 points per game from Smith and Singler being done, so that has to be made up for.

Ohio State: Have them at 70.7, they averaged 77 last year with next to nothing from outside their top 8. I expect DeShaun Thomas and William Buford to take more of the scoring load, though I think Sullinger should be somewhere around where you have him. If Thomas plays around 28-30 mpg, he should be at a solid 15-16 ppg.

Vandy: Might have overprojected the overall scoring total of the top 8, though not by much. 74.2 is what they averaged in your projections, and they were at 76 as a team last year. They could indeed score more this year though. Do not think Tinsley drops by 2 though, and could see Ezeli and Taylor dropping or staying the same with Jenkins rising to maybe 22. That dude can stroke.

Kansas: Had them at 69 in their top 8 when they averaged 81 as a team. This team has a lot of points to make up, and I would be surprised if Thomas Robinson did not average more than you listed. Though, you actually are pretty close to the amount that Kansas’ top 8 averaged last year, they went a lot deeper than most teams in who they played. I realize you take team into account with the top 8, but I think this team will not be as deep this year as they ran last year, which will effect the scoring at the top.

UCONN: Top 8 at 63 while as a team they were at 72, and got next to nothing from outside of their top 8. Lamb should score a considerable amount more, and the loss of Kemba should distribute a good number of points around.

Syracuse: Averaged 73 as a team, you are pretty close. I think there is little way Rakeem Christmas does even close to that much offensively. He is sushi raw, think it will be a rough transition, he will be in foul trouble and could see he and Fab Melo sharing minutes. Kris Joseph should average more than the 14.3 he did last season rather than less, and Scoop Jardine should average more than his 12.5 (you have him at 9.5). Also think Dion Waiters should be in double figs, and you should not sleep on Michael Carter-Williams putting up some #’s as well. Cuse may play a lot of small ball with Joseph at the 4 and one of the big guys.

Florida: Bradley Beal may be in that neighborhood scoring wise, but I would be shocked if he only shoots 33% from 3. That guy has a wicked stroke, 38-40% if definitely my expectation, he can shoot the heck out of the ball and should be their best three point shooter and possibly their leading scorer. You actually predict pretty close, they averaged 72 as a team last year and you are around a good number. But, I think your expectations for Will Yeguete are far too high, and that Patric Young may be a little closer to Vernon Macklin #’s as their probable only low post option. Florida will be a really small team next year, but I expect a lot of guard play and scoring.

Memphis: They were pretty bundled together in the scoring department last year, and finished at 72 ppg. They also bring pretty much everyone back, other than Angel Garcia, there 9th leading scorer and Will Coleman. I think Joe Jackson will be along with Barton in carrying a greater amount of the scoring load. Also, I would not be surprised if Adonis Thomas played the 3 and that Barton was mostly at the 2. This is a team that could be on the rise this year for sure.

Washington: I think you short changed your beloved Huskies. They averaged 83 per game as a team, and you have them at 67.5. Sure, they had 10.6 from outside of the top 8 (Most of it from Aziz N’Diaye and Darnell Gant), but they should not have as much depth this year, especially at big. They lose 48.6 ppg from Isaiah Thomas, Justin Holiday, MBA and Venoy Overton, and they very well should be below 83 ppg this upcoming year. Still, I think that some players scoring averages need to rise in your predicts.

Texas: I do not know if there is a major team in the nation who will have to make up as many points as Texas will. That being said, J’Covan Brown averaging 23 ppg will probably not be how they do it. I expect Myck Kabongo to probably take a lot of the scoring load, and hopefully a young wing player will develop. Expect Clint Chapman to be a part of their 8 man rotation as well. You have the top 8 averaging 65.8, and while their scoring may take a dip from last years 75 ppg, they only got 2.8 ppg outside of their top 8. With this team having potentially even less depth this year, I expect their top 8 too acoount for about 72 ppg, and iof Brown is worth 20 of those, I would be incredibly shocked.

Mizzou: You are pretty good there actually, have them at 75.4 while as a team they were at 81. Their scoring should remain pretty balanced. though maybe even more so this year than last. I too think Phil Pressey should up his average.

Xavier: Think you slightly overprojected this one, as their top 8 as you have it are at 75.2 while they as a team averaged 72 per game. Their scoring will probably be much more balanced than as it was shown, and I would not be surprised if Tu Holloway averaged even more this year than he did last year (19.7), while both Mark Lyons and Kenny Frease were a little more or around the same. Dezmine Wells may even be more relied upon as a scorer, dropping Lyons average further.

 

Well, hope these are helpful, and maybe give people a different way of looking at how to predict college scoring. If you shoot for similar averages to what the team has had in the past few years, you should have a much increased possibility of them being correct.

 

 

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