Why are so many people high on this guy? I'm not saying he is over rated or under rated I just don't see what makes him so special. I remember watching a lot of Kentucky games and yes he made some great defensive plays but given his injury and the way he relies on his athleticism won't he be a player who needs to learn his position before he can be anymore successful? Honestly, I am not hating on this guy, if you guys can convince me he deserves the #1 pick by all means go ahead but in my eyes I just don't see it. Thoughts?
(Also, if you want to use the argument you can't teach size, you're right but I don't think drafting him number #1 is the right thing to do just because of his height.)
I think his ceiling is a 10-10-2.5 player. He should be a solid defensive big man who provides energy on the floor.
So you think his ceiling is Samuel Dalembert?
Defensively, no one in this draft is better than Nerleansc(4BPG, 2SPG). His defense alone, in this weak draft, makes him worthy of top 3. At worst he will be Larry Sanders/Theo Ratliff. I would draft a Larry Sanders in top 3 if he's in this draft class.
I hope you mean his defensive potential is better than anyone in this class because he's not a great defender right now at all.
I'm not even gonna try to convince you why I think he should be the #1 pick because based on his game, I don't think he should be. I just have him slotted there because that's what I think will happen. Personally, I don't think any player is deserving of being the #1 pick.
Before his injury though the intrigue was based on him having jets for feet with great length. He's extremely mobile, quick laterally and had some of the quickest 2nd and 3rd jumps I've seen since prime Shawn Marion. Ideally, he could erase a ton of mistakes as a back line defender. That being said, he has a ton of flaws and like I said in the Shabazz thread, I think if his game was scrutinized as much as Shabazz' game was, his stock would slip too. Like defensively, although he's very productive in terms of accumulating blocks and steals, he does a lot of things in a fundamentally unsound manner, showing some questionable instincts., playing defense for blocks and steals instead of staying sound and remaining in good position.
Didn't Larry Sanders have some resemblence of skill in college or am I off on that? Cuz Noel can't do anything but dunk from what I've seen and heard (admittedly not seen a ton). Shot blocking and steals in a terrible SEC are nice numbers, but how is his actual defense? Can he guard PFs who are bigger and stronger then he is and are going to come at him actually? Can he hold more weight because if he's 210 pounds, he's going to be destroyed inside. Is he smart? What I mean is will he be able to understand defensive rotations? Again this is where averaging 4 blocks in a terrible SEC means little to me. These are questions I have for him. He may very well be a good individual defender for all I know, just questions I have for him. Which means you are drafting a guy in the top 3 to block 3 shots a game and get a few dunks off rim runs.
Unfortunately somebody needs to get drafted high, and the NBA is infatuated with long, athletic people no matter how skilled they are.
I thought Nerlens was an easy #1 choice especially if he was healthy but now one thing i'm wondering is his 206lbs..
it's not 228 he was listed at UK and not even 216 he measured a year ago at nike hoop summit..
that's definitely not a center's size and even for a PF he looks undersized..should we worry about this?
Well I see the undervaluing phase of the NBA draft has begun. THIS thread is an example of why great impact players slip on draft day. Teams looking for an impact bigman are hoping the negative narrative forming around noel will have the desired effect on draft day.
Are you saying that Nerlens' draft stock is going to fall because people on this message board don't think he should be the top pick?
Yeah you should be worried about that weight. Even small forwards could probably overpower him in the paint. When could you ever say that about a big man projected as a potential 1st overall pick?
To be fair, his defensive abilities and athleticism puts him at top 3. I can see someone taking him under the condition he puts on another 15-20 pounds, but the team with the first pick overall might not want to deal with that. I doubt Charlotte goes with another defensive guy this year.
I mean even after those 15 20 pounds it's still only 220's, something what Anthony Davis is already
Don't think of him as a center. Center has become much more of a strength position now. Imagine him defending Marc Gasol. Marc would turn him into a living rag doll.
Think of him as a PF. Weight will still be an issue there, but its less of an issue since most PFs these days tend to be athletes or face up players.
for the life of me understand why a guy who will more than likely only average about 13 points a game in his career would be considered for the 1 pick. I understand he has great potential to be an elite defender and he is already a great defender, but if I was a gm I would want my number 1 pick to score a bit more for my team. in my opinion its similar to when greg oden was drafted, I never thought he should be taken number 1 even before he got drafted. like noel he had very little offense and was all defense, plus being injury prone. im not saying there the same guy exactly, but they are similar playing style.
A legitimate rim protector is just as important, if not more than say, a scorer who has no impact defensively. The back line defender is the most important player on defense. He is essentially the PG on defense, calling out the rotations since everything is in front of him. You look at today's defensive schemes and they're more help-oriented than I've ever seen. The main help defender has so many responsibilities now. The guard doesn't stop PnR, the help defender does. There's more switching in recent yrs so help defenders are expected to be able to guard perimeter players and hold their own there as well. With more small ball lineups, big man defenders are expected to be able to cover more ground, providing help while also being able to get out on shooters. etc.
You're completely underselling just how important a mistake eraser is to a team.
What they do might not be as sexy as scoring, but a really good one is invaluable to a team.
siggy, how can noel be a legit rim protector at 205 when he physically wont be able to hold his position? guys are gonna go through him unless he gets a lot bigger a stronger.
post defense is holding position. rim protection is more about agility, the ability to cover ground, awareness and smart rotations with some shot blocking instincts. noel is agile, can cover a lot of ground quickly and has shot blocking instincts.
you can be one without the other. ibaka's a prime example of that. he has crappy post defense but can be a valuable help defender.
see this is what bugs me about the nba today. teams want to take big men with top 3 picks that would have been role players in the 90's. noel really presents nothing other than shot blocking. is that really worth a top pick? I know this draft is weak, but come on.
No, Noel really isn't worth a #1 pick. One dimensional players usually aren't, but who else is there? An athletic jump shooter? A scorer who doesn't do anything else, but doesn't score well in iso situations? A well-rounded glue guy?
I realize this is a weak draft, but I think some of those other guys will make a bigger impact in the nba, and have much longer careers. if your gonna make an aruement for a big man, I would go with alex len 10 times out of 10 over noel. he is not the shot blocker or athlete noel is, but he is not bad on defense and has a lot of potential in that area. also he is far more advanced on offense. len looked great against both noel and cauley-stein last year. he also has a lesser injury than noel. im just really turned off by how rail thin noel is, and how one dimentional he is. and his supposed calling card, his defense is not even elite for an nba prospect. he is an elite shot blocker, but can't hold up against guys who will back him down.
He can literally exert his will on one side of the game. That is a massive thing in the NBA. The fact that it is the defensive side is even more important. Solid lockdown defence in the paint is really hard to find. Theres a reason the Mavericks won a title with Tyson Chandler and look completely lost without him. He is also one of the youngest players in the draft class so his room for growth is insanely high. Finally useful bigmen are so hard to find. I mean do you know how hard it is to find a serviceable backup center? let alone a bonafide starting one? Even if he develops ZERO offensive game from this point forward there will always be a place for him in the NBA.
Weird part is I was not really that high on him coming in, but I might have just sold myself heh
Tyson chandler was 220 out of high school, noel is not even 220 now after 1 year of college. he is 205. also he is NOT as good a defender as chandler. he is gonna get bullied by centers power forwards and strong sf down low unless he puts on some series muscle. I mean LeBron is 260 and Carmelo is 240. he could not stop them down low, how is he gonna stop legit power forwards and centers like zack Randolph, roy hibbert, marc gasol. can you answer me that question?
If the Kings moved up to number one, I wonder who they would take? Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, and Trey Burke would all be good fits for them.
I have them taking Trey Burke anyway but I wonder if they think they will be reaching for him at 1.
If the Cavs get the first pick I wonder who they would take. McLemore is good, but they already have Waiters. Noel could actually be solid for them inside as a shot blocker and finisher. I would assume Trey Burke would be off the table. But, I wouldn't count out Alex Len who would be the scoring big man that they need.
If the Cavs would let Nerlens Noel fully recover (maybe take more time in coming back from injury), he could be the guy for them. Then go after a wing player in next year's draft. Hopefully Andrew Wiggins of course.
I like him a good deal. He has 3 obstacles: no real offense yet, he might need 35 more pounds to be effective on defense, and his injury is a possible threat to hi future.
I can't see the Charlotte taking Noel if they pick 1st or 2nd unless they trade down. They need offense from a PF or C so badly. Sorry Biyombo/Mullens.
Anthony Bennet makes some sense and maybe Cody Zeller if they trade down. McLemore would be excellent for them if they trade Gerald Henderson.
Marcus Smart weighs 225 at 6'4". Wow. Noel is rail thin. AD at 222 got pushed around all year and I'm sure a few of his injuries this year were related to that, too. If Noel wants to play center at the NBA level, he's going to have gain at least 35 pounds.
So...he's basically Serge Ibaka, minus a ton of pounds (kind of a big deal when you're a defensive big man), without any semblance of a jump shot, and has a torn ACL. Sounds like a number 1 pick to me.
If Anthony Davis never existed, would an injured Noel even get top 5 consideration?
I wouldn't trade Jared Sullinger for Noel.
Noel's draft stock is based on his defensive potential but to be drafted that high as a big I feel that a player needs potential to be a two way player ( offence and defence) such as Anthony Davis unless they are a legit defensive game and shot changer such as Mount Mutombo. I notice that on Noel's profile on here, he is compared to Mutombo and Sanders, if Noel could be the next Mutombo then I'm sure any teaam would snap him up at number 1.
But Mutombo was 25 when he came to the NBA and was 228lbs at his combine I recall so Noel would have a long way to go.
I am aware that shot blocking and defence is about timing as well as power but having seen how Big Roy Hibbert bossed Tyson Chandler around in the play offs what would guys like him, Marc Gasol, D12, Tim Duncan, KG, DMC, Drummond etc do to a 206lbs guy like Noel?
Noel is a 206 lbs stick with a history of knee problems.
He's already missed one year with a broken left leg/growth plate in his knee and will miss another year with his current ACL.
What kind of idiot GM would gamble the #1 pick in the draft on a player who is injury prone and damaged goods on top of not having an NBA body.