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NBA Draft... Hit or Miss

IndianaBasketball
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NBA Draft... Hit or Miss

The Barron's post, ranking the number one picks over the last 24 years gave me an idea. While reading his post I kept thinking about the player who SHOULD'VE been the 1st pick that year. I figured this would be good conversation since the 2009 draft is approaching.

1985 - Patrick Ewing: Ewing
1986 - Brad Daugherty: Daugherty, even though his career only lasted 8 seasons.
1987 - David Robinson: Robinson, but Scottie Pippen (5th) is close!
1988 - Danny Manning: Mitch Richmond (5th), but Manning's career was slowed by knee injuries.
1989 - Pervis Ellison: It's between Shawn Kemp (17th), Tim Hardaway (14th) & Glen Rice (4th). I'm going w/ Kemp.
1990 - Derrick Coleman: Gary Payton (2nd)
1991 - Larry Johnson: Dikembe Mutumbo. Johnson would've been my pick if he hadn't gotten injured.
1992 - Shaquille O'Neal: O'Neal, however Alonzo Mourning (2nd) had a great career.
1993 - Chris Webber: Webber, though Penny Hardaway (3rd) was the sh*t!
1994 - Glenn Robinson: Jason Kidd (2nd) or Grant Hill (3rd)? I'm going w/ Kidd, but Hill would've been my pick if he hadn't gotten injured.
1995 - Joe Smith: Kevin Garnett (5th).
1996 - Allen Iverson: One of the greatest drafts in NBA history (along w/ 1984 & 2003). Iverson has had a great career, but Kobe Bryant (13th) is a no brainer.
1997 - Tim Duncan: Duncan
1998 - Michael Olowokandi: Olowokandi... LOL jk. It's between Dirk Nowitzki (9th), Paul Pierce (10th) & Vince Carter (5th). I'm going w/ Nowitzki followed by Pierce.
1999 - Elton Brand: This draft was real nice, however I'm going w/ Brand. MANU GINOBLI WAS THE 57TH PICK... CRAZY.
2000 - Kenyon Martin: This was a weak draft. Martin's closest competition is Jamal Crawford (8th).
2001 - Kwame Brown: This is a tough one... Pau Gasol (3rd), Joe Johnson (10th), Tony Parker (28th) or Gilbert Arenas (31st). At this point, I'm going w/ Parker followed closely by Gasol.
2002 - Yao Ming: Yao, but Amare Stoudemire is close.
2003 - LeBron James: James, but I'm sure Dwayne Wade would disagree!
2004 - Dwight Howard: Howard
2005 - Andrew Bogut: Chris Paul
2006 - Andrea Bargnani: Brandon Roy
2007 - Greg Oden: I'm an Oden fan, but it looks like Durrant at this point.
2008 - Derrick Rose: It's early, but Rose looks to be the one at this point.

I didn't really take into account injuries, but one major thing stood out to me... The right player was picked #1 only 12 times out of the last 24 drafts. That's 50%, which is basically hit or miss. Will Blake Griffin be a hit or a miss? For those of you who think he'll be a miss, what players could potentially supplant him as the player that SHOULD'VE been drafted 1st in this upcoming draft?


xbadgerhustler
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Brandon Jennings and James

Brandon Jennings and James Harden could POTENTIALLY supplant him as the best player of this draft. IMO

dwat4444
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I do think griffin will be a

I do think griffin will be a hit, an all'starr definetely and possibly an all'time great. If he's a miss I do think harden will be the next best player. Also, Rubio could be a great too.

13kavak
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in 1998

i agree with your selections but dont you think jamison bears a sniff or a mention for a possibility

13kavak
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disagree with some of your choices

1985- chris mullin would have served fine
1996 steve nash - ray allen
1999- baron davis
2000- hidayet torkuglu

and yes i do think shooters are just as important if not more so then big men

the barron
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nice choices

I agree with all of your choices except the 2000 draft. Lets not forget that Michael Redd was picked in the second round (43rd overall) that year, so I would have him at the top of this draft.

IndianaBasketball
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Thanks for that correction!

Thanks for that correction! I completely forgot about Hedo Turkoglu (16th) & Michael Redd (43rd) in the 2000 NBA Draft. Turkoglu's career took off when he got traded to the Magic in 2004 & Redd has averaged 20.5 points per game for his career. This makes deciding who should've been the #1 pick in 2000 even tougher lol. I'm leaning towards Redd.

Jamison has had a great career, but I'm sure most people would agree that he finishes behind Nowitzki, Pierce & Carter.

Chris Mullin had a great career, but I'm sure we all agree that Ewing was the right pick in 1985. Same w/ Steve Nash & Ray Allen... Great careers, but Kobe is clearly the best player out of the 1996 class. 1999 had a real nice class w/ Richard Hamilton, Ron Artest, Manu Ginobli, Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Corey Maggette, James Posey, Andrei Kirilenko & Steve Francis, BUT... I'd still have to go w/ Brand at this point. Ginobli & Hamilton are close though.

j1232e
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nice list

I think griffing will ba a hit. 85 no consideration for karl malone. I thought he was a better player than ewing

JNixon
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Yea

Good list, and all the ones I disagreed with were picked up by everyone else

IndianaBasketball
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I didn't mention Karl Malone

I didn't mention Karl Malone (13th), Joe Dumars (18th) & Chris Mullin (7th) for the 1985 NBA Draft, but I agree w/ you... Malone could easily get the nod over Ewing. Malone CLEARLY had the better career. However you can't go wrong w/ either one of them.

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