[R4unoParticipant]

As almost half of the season is over, who is your frontrunner for the MVP award? Unless both get seriously injured, Harden doesn’t come back in 2 weeks or Durant doesn’t play in absolute beast mode until the end of the season, I can’t find a way it doesn’t go to LeBron or Harden. Which of them is the favorite for you right now? I personally prefer LeBron, the numbers are just unreal considering his age, but only if their record at the end of the season gives them at least the 2nd place in their conference and Houston doesn’t have a significantly better record. Harden also has his advantages in defensive improvements and in the fact that he’s never won the prize before.

Some stats:

Lebron – 27.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 9.1 APG (career high), 1.6 SPG, 1 BPG, 4.3 TOPG (career high), 30.02 PER, 55.9% FG, 38.3% 3ptFG, 10.4 BPM (leads the league). All of these stats are equal with or better than career averages. 7.4 WS, 4.4 VORP (leads the league).

Harden – 32.3 PPG (career high, leads the league), 5 RPG, 9.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 4.4 TOPG, 30.52 PER, 45.1% FG, 39% 3ptFG, 10.4 BPM (leads the league). Also every one of these stats is equal with or better than career average. 8.1 WS (leads the league), 4 VORP.

Both have their cases. What do you guys think?

 

[Anton123Participant]

All depends on how the teams do. The numbers are very similar, and LeBron’s age and reputation is kind of matched by the fact that Harden has never gotten an MVP trophy. Right now the Cavs are 5 games behind the Rockets while playing in a weaker conference, so I would say Harden is the frontrunner.

[HobbyOGParticipant]

 Harden being out several weeks with the injury could hurt his chances

[ThenilonatorParticipant]

 I’m not sure you can argue that the rockets play in an tougher conference, certainly not like it has been the past decade. Sure they have the warriors but the spurs are no longer the dominant force they were, the clippers stink, Minnesota are heavily inconsistent, OKC yet to gel and outside that every other western conference team are a chance to get beat by Brooklyn on their home court

[OhCanada-Participant]

 I cant even take stats seriously anymore. The league has finally entered its softest state imaginable.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Harden was my first half MVP even though he underperformed in my last few Power Polls, mostly due to the Rockets not winning as much.  

I think he was 6th in my final MVP Power Poll of December 2017.

The first half MVP going to Harden was based on, obviously, stats, but also games played, and team winning percentage.

Simple enough right?

Stats I used: the basic counting stats of Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and Blocks.

I think he finished with 36 points.

Second, LeBron at 31.  I had Durant at 3 with something like 27 or 28 with DeRozan a close fourth.  

Westbrook and Giannis took up the next two spots (in some order). BOTH would have been higher if their teams had won more.  Westbrook was underrepresented in my power polls due to some middling win/loss streaks by the Thunder.  Same with Giannis although I think he finished in the top 4 in my final 2017 MVP Power Poll.  Ok, Kyrie is in there somewhere too…

Cousins and KAT did well for themselves, too.  With KAT even winning the MVP Power Poll last week, so he will be ranked no lower than 4 in my next (top 8) poll.

I really can’t argue with either my weekly power polls (smoothed over, the results look great although there is a lot of noise from week to week).

DeRozan surprised me coming in at 4.  He was 8 in my second to last MVP power poll but didn’t make my final one.  He pretty much played every game on a very good (and streaking) Raptors team plus he put up great stats (even BEFORE he went off for 52).  

His teammate Kyle Lowry is also hanging in there, making the Sweet 16 MVP cut.

Steph is lagging due to injuries, and, well, his stats aren’t as eye popping this year — although Durant came in at 3 with Klay Thompson ALSO in the top 16.  

Kevin Love made my second to last MVP power poll, missed out on the last one, but has been playing well as of late (and he ALSO made the cut).  

LaMarcus Aldridge made the cut although I don’t think he has made ANY of my top 10 lists.  But, he and the Spurs are hanging in there.

Jimmy Butler came in at 16, made my second to last power poll, but not my final one.  

Actually the last two guys in my final weekly power poll of 2017 were John Wall and Brad Beal, with Wall missing too many games to make the 16 player cut, with Beal BARELY missing out.  Horford had the most points in my first half rankings of any player that didn’t make the cut.  Draymond Green was close, too, which also means that no team has more than two players making the cut (Raptors, Warriors, T Wolves, and Cavs).  

Andre Drummond started off strong in my MVP lists with a hot-starting Pistons, cooled off and was off my lists as the Pistons slumped, but came in in the top 8 in my last MVP ranking and made the Top 16 cut anyway.  

Stats, consistency (playing all the games AND coming in strong from week to week), and WINNING are the most important things for an MVP candidate.

After last night, I would NARROWLY have Durant in first place.  Wins, playing most of the games, then the stats on BOTH SIDES of the ball puts Durant narrowly above LeBron with Harden slumping a bit (and now out a couple of weeks).  

Harden gets a bye at the next cut, too, so he will be in the MVP Elite 8 Candidate Pool going into February along with the top four of my last MVP weekly power poll of January plus the top 3 overall players for the year up until then.

Starting in March I will only do a top four.  Only four candidates make the cut.  

Steph Curry has a lot of ground to make up.  He is in danger of missing the cut.  His BEST option is to finish January strongly…

I don’t think his raw, cumulative MVP share makes it into the top 3 by the end of the month.

Oh well, lots of other great players will miss the cut, too.

For my March "Final Four" I will take AT LEAST the top guy in my last weekly MVP poll plus at least two guys in my running MVP list.  PROBABLY two of each…

Eh, I will probably take the players with the top 2 overall finishes for the month.  So, if four weeks in February (or 3 since it is the All Star Break month), then I will take the best two average finishes.  Then two guys with the best average make the cut, with the top two running MVP candidates ALSO making the cut.  

My theory is that the MVP money race starts NOW, with the sprint to the finish occuring after the All Star Break.  VERY HARD to play your way into the MVP race now, but really easy to play our way OUT of the race.

Let’s see what happens!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 My short answer for who is still VAGUELY alive for the league’s MVP award:

Harden

LeBron

Durant

Giannis

Kyrie

Cousins

Westbrook

Steph

DeRozan

KAT

Although this list should be cut in half over the next several weeks.

I ALSO don’t see it going to a NON SUPER DUPER STAR, so no DeRozan, KAT, and probably not even Cousins (I also don’t see the Pelicans climbing up the West standings that much).

Westbrook might be out, too, since middling teams usually don’t give you back-to-back MVP’s.

Durant or Steph probably cancel each other out, so we can only take one.

Steph is out.

So, a Fab Five here would be Harden, LeBron, Durant, Giannis, and Kyrie.  I could see an MVP race between those five going down to the last 10 days…

Giannis is putting up 30ish and 10ish a night along with some other stuff.  IF the Bucks put some win streaks together then he could close quickly and take this thing for a photo finish.

So, my TOP FIVE now, using both qualitative AND quantitative analysis:

1. Durant

2. LeBron

3. Giannis

4. Harden

5. Kyrie

With Harden’s on the slight decline with some lower finishes AND his being injured.  Kyrie is at 5 due to being mediocre on defense (or at least that is one interpretation), and the C’s somewhat cooling off after their blistering start.

Durant and LeBron are basically tied.  It would be like choosing between Bird and Magic in the mid-80’s.

Giannis, though, has too many ways to hang in there, plus a few to close it out.

If Durant/LeBron are the Bird/Magic of the NBA’s Digital Age, then Giannis is MJ.

For Kyrie/Harden to win, the guy basically has to put up video game stats the rest of the year, with the Celtics/Rockets running the table.

Giannis had that signature winning dunk.  I think a signature stat line would help too: something like a 50 point triple double/5 x 5.

50 points, 15, boards, 12 assists, 5 steals, and 5 blocks would be a SIGNATURE game.

THE ALL STAR GAME MATTERS.

I will do an All Star Game Top 5.  I will then give players bonus points for February based on the ASG.  ASG top dog will get 5 points, and so on.  I might add those bonus points to my final MVP weekly power poll of February.

Steph Curry could probably really use these points.

Ok, so 5 points to the ASG Most Outstanding Player.  Then each of my remaining 16 MVP candidates get a point for being on the winning team (if he actually plays).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GronounoursParticipant]

 For God’s sake, you’ll soon get to -2000 points… Why do you keep posting humongous comments, and Power Polls, and Top 5s, and All Star Game Top 5s, etc., if nobody cares (to put it kindly)? I just don’t get it.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 I made a comment on a thread about the first half MVP. 

I haven’t made my OWN thread about the MVP race in AT LEAST a day and a half.

[ThenilonatorParticipant]

 Yeah but you mentioned Cousins in a thread about the league MVP, instant -1

[HitsterParticipant]

 I’d say Harden is the clear leader at the moment, putting up nearly 5ppg more than LBJ. Also the Cavs only have 6th best record in the NBA currently so for LBJ to become a front runner I think they need to be in top 3 best records and above the Rockets.

Giannis is having a great season but the Bucks are probably not high up enough to put him ahead of LBJ and certainly Harden.

KD would need to clearly outscore LBJ to get above him and is over 6ppg behind Harden so unless GSW are clearly the best team I’d be tempted to discount him although his good all round play this year always means he’ll be in the mix as he is hugely respected.

Kyrie is a dark horse, he may not be in the top 10 for scoring but with the Celtics being Hayward down and if they do have the best overall record then being the best team’s best player has to put him in the mix.

 

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Once you think of the top 5 or so guys it is gonna come down to injuries and wins.

 

 

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