Here are a couple of guys I had high expectations for this year that have basically made me look stupid.
Adonis Thomas-As a Memphis fan I was really excited to hear he was coming back and thought he was going to put up the same type of numbers that Will Barton did last year. He looked like he improved his stroke and he put on a ton of muscle so I was expecting him to be the leader of Memphis team that was ranked pretty high in the preseason. Well I was way wrong. He's regressed and his stock has plummeted. He should come back again, but he might lose minutes with all the talent Memphis brings in next season.
My expected stats: 16 ppg 7 rpg 52% FG 38% 3pt 74% FT
Real stats: 10.4 ppg 3.8 rpg 40.2% FG 24% 3pt 69.6% FT
Marcus Paige-Coming to UNC where the PG's are usually pretty good, I expected big things from Paige. He was the guy no one was talking about, but I thought he had a pretty good game and that he could score and pass at a pretty high level this year. Well now I know why no one was talking about him...he's been horrible. He looks like a 4 year player now and won't start when Joel Berry comes to town in a few years. The one thing good here is that Paige just had probably his best game of the year and his passing has at least been solid. Still I was way off here.
My expected stats: 13 ppg 3 rpg 5 apg 46% FG 37% 3pt 77% FT 2.5 topg
Real stats: 7.4 ppg 2.7 rpg 4.5 apg 32.5% FG 31.2% 3pt 83.3% FT 2.5 topg
Alex Poythress-He hasn't been bad, but in the off-season I was repeatedly hyping him up as a top 5 pick and the best player in UK's great recruiting class. At times he has shown the talent to be exactly what I claimed him to be, but more often then not he hasn't and inconsistency has been a problem with him all year long. He's got less wing skills then I thought, and he's always seemingly in foul trouble. His efficiency numbers are actually a good bit higher then I expected, but on a lower volume. His block/steal stats are absolutely pathetic though. He'll likely still go lottery but I expected him to be the leader of this UK team and I was wrong.
My expected stats: 15 ppg 9 rpg 2 apg 54% FG 39% 3pt 1.5 bpg 1.5 spg
Real Stats: 12.8 ppg 6.5 rpg 0.4 apg 61.4% FG 45.5% 3 pt 0.4 bpg 0.2 spg
DaJuan Coleman-Remember when this guy was arguably the top player in his class? His hype died down and those are the types of guys I like to watch out for when it comes to the college game. I figured he could be the guy to replace Fab Melo and have productive year and probably go pro as a sophomore. Well he's hurt now and before that he wasn't looking like an NBA player at all. He just looks like a big body who can't out-muscle people the way he would like to.
My predicted stats: 27 mpg 12 ppg 8.5 rpg 59% FG 61% FT 1.5 bpg
Real stats: 14 mpg 5 ppg 4.4 rpg 43.5% FG 44.8% FT 0.5 bpg
Anyways those are four guys who I expected a lot more from. Who has disappointed you guys this season?
Lebryan Nash? He was asked to do to much his freshman year so with Smart on board I thought he would be a good off ball scorer and ever age around 17-18, not 13.5 on 43% shooting. Elijah Johnson has also even a MAJOR let down this season
Both great choices. I was never really a fan of Nash so I didn't think to include him. Johnson has been a scrub this season.
Ryan Harrow- I thought Harrow would be a top 5 pg in the country. He was just an amazing high school prospect and I was sure he would flourish at point guard U. He has been better lately, but has confidence and strength issues. I'm not sure he even a future as an nba player anymore.
James McAdoo- Very overrated. I didn't realize he had so many holes in his game. Once thought to be a top 3 pick, could end up a late first round pick.
I agree with you about Marcus Paige as well. He has not impressed me at all. Definitely a four year player.
I didn't add McAdoo because I knew he had no wing skills and that he needed a lot of work as a post player. I still expected him to be better then he is now, but I'm not shocked he has underachieved. His situation kind of reminds me of what happened with Ed Davis.
Yeah after watching Smart rape him yesterday, he won't be in the NBA
I agree about Adonis Thomas. I'm also a Memphis fan and thought he would have a big year this year. Instead, he looks worse than he did his freshmen year. He never drives to the basket, which is frustrating to watch considering his frame. All he does is shoot jumpers, and his shot has been off all year. He does have pretty good form though, so maybe he is just in an enormous slump. He is also slower than I thought he was. I'm not sure if that's because of his injury or because of all the weight he gained. Probably a little bit of both. If he does come back, he needs to lose about 10-15 pounds, improve his ball handling, and learn how to actually take the ball to the rim. If he doesn't, he might be losing his starting spot to Iverson or King.
Kuran is a stud
Ricky Ledo. Not for his on court shortcomings because clearly he didn't make it there this year, but for the fact he didn't get to play. I think he could've given quite the discussion on who was the best SG in this class had he been able to play this year. I know there are mixed reviews on him, but you can't deny his talent.
If Ledo declares for this draft... where do you think he will be taken?
Between picks 20-32, it's hard to gauge a guy that hasn't played a minute during college; it will depend on how well he performs at the combine and workouts. He should stay another year
Ledo should have just gone to the D-League, or to Europe like Brandon Jennings did. A year off from organised basketball can put off a lot of scouts, especially with guards.
That said, McLemore's great performance after a year of red-shirting might help Ledo's stock.
Adonis Thomas has been a huge disappointment to me. I don't know what he did over the off-season. Maybe his foot injury was more serious than I thought.
I should've taken a hint after all the reports about how he looked after the summer. He was fat and supposedly unimpressive at the skills camps.
His perimeter skill hasn't advanced. His shot looks nice but he's not hitting them. He looks passive by nature but when he tries to play more aggressively, all he does is take more contested jump shots.
I don't think any of the incoming wings (King or Iverson) will be ready next yr to supplant Thomas' spot in the rotation, but he looks more like a 4 yr than a 3 yr player now. What makes me even less optimistic about his future is that he just doesn't look like he knows how to impact games. Even if his shot isn't falling he could make a better effort to hit the glass or make plays. He's got tremendous physical tools with great leaping ability, body strength and strong hands, yet he gets less than 4 boards a game? That's pathetic.
I think what would be best for him is to transfer to play under a better coach, use the transfer yr as a redshirt yr to get in better shape and work on his skills.... and get away from that home cooking.
Tony Mitchell's another big disappointment as well. If he just sustained his level of production from last yr I think he would've been a top 10 pick easily. I've only been able to watch one North Texas game and the team as a whole looked awful. Word is that he tried to become more of a SF and that's why he's struggled to a degree. If that's the case, it could just be another case in a long line of players who don't know their strengths, trying to become perimeter players when it's obvious that they lack the skill to make that transition.
He still has tremendous potential because he's a freak athlete, but if he thinks he's a SF then that potential is lowered IMO. I don't understand why kids keep making this same mistake.
Hadn't really seen Mitchell before the year, but his athleticism is truly insane. He should be doing so much more then he is. I'm with you on him being a 4 too.
While he isn't necessarily a big name guy, as a Kansas fan, I had high hopes for Perry Ellis. He was a fairly highly ranked recruit, and I didn't expect him to get such limited minutes or to do so little with those minutes.
I don't know what the future holds for him, but he looks bad. Maybe if he develops a jumper that'd open up his face up game, but I'm not impressed by anything in his game. Unless Self misses on a bunch of recruits, Ellis looks like a college back up.
I whiffed more than all of you guys. I actually made a thread that said I believed that Poythress had a chance at the #1 pick.
Dude looks completely and utterly lost on offense. I guess with the arrival of Anthony Bennett (a superior hybrid forward), he has lost nearly all his confidence, and hasn't been able to figure out his role with the Runnin' Rebs.
He's yet another guy who's trying to make the transition to the 3 and looking terrible in the process.
Paige would look a lot better if UNC had any semblance of an offense. Paige given free reign to run up and down the court and jack up jumpshots makes it even worse. He is an excellent shooter when he spots up and shoots in the flow of the offense (whenever there is one) but shooting off-balanced or forced jumpers is not his game. Needless to say, I felt he shouldve been coming off the bench and learning how to run an offense instead of having a two-PG lineup with another guy that is not a good jumpshooter.
Poythress is so intriguing to me and @akhan....it wasnt a far-fetched notion of Poythress being #1 pick type talent. He is that. He is very polished and has the body already. The guy has no motor to speak of. He is one of those types of guys that either doesnt truly realize how good he is, or the game has come too easy for him up until this point.
As for my major disappointments? How about the Wake Forest transfers? Although Oregon is having a great season....I am sure I am not the only one who expected more from Woods. I thought this guy would be a demon on the boards. Remember when this board had him higher in one of its mocks than Aminu?
J.T. Terrell and Ari Stewart are worse at USC than they were at Wake and their team is just as bad if not worse.