share

LOTTERY PREDICTIONS

Mr. Basketball
Mr. Basketball's picture
Registered User
Joined: 12/04/2008
Posts: 1196
Points: 303
Offline
LOTTERY PREDICTIONS

Who do you think will win the lottery? (1,2,3)

My picks:

Pick #1) Golden State Warriors
Pick #2) Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick #3) Los Angeles Clippers


Hypnotoad
Hypnotoad's picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/14/2010
Posts: 53
Points: 73
Offline
Hehehe

Hehehe

I gave you a point.

Never lose hope.

nateoak10
nateoak10's picture
Registered User
Joined: 03/22/2009
Posts: 1635
Points: 1793
Offline
1. Detroit 2. New Jersey 3.

1. Detroit
2. New Jersey
3. GSW

The8thDeadlySin
The8thDeadlySin's picture
Registered User
Joined: 07/02/2008
Posts: 4392
Points: 5840
Offline
Do you understand

Do you understand probability?? I mean this is a little out there. I dont care about who wins it but the Clippers arent going to get a top 3 pick........

The Nets are the worst team in the league. So that means that they have a 25% chance to win the lottery. Everyone else has less than 20...

Your Clippers finished somewhere around 9th worst in the league. The 9th worst team in the league has only a 1.7% chance to get the 1st pick, a 2% chance to get the 2nd pick and a 2.4% chance to get the 3rd pick. Also, there is a 74% chance that the Nets get a top 3 pick.. 0% chance that the Nets get out of the top 4.... So the odds of these 2 things happening are just unreal.. You are depending on the 24% chance that the Nets get the 4th pick and the 2.4% chance that the Clippers get the 3rd pick to both happen. I could explain the math to you and show you how to find the probability of those 2 things happening at the same time but I dont feel like it and its not worth the effort. Also, I dont know if I could explain it in a way that you would understand or care..

Basically what I am saying is "No, you are wrong."

Hypnotoad
Hypnotoad's picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/14/2010
Posts: 53
Points: 73
Offline
Myne

1. Sacramento
2. New Jersey
3. Minnesota

DMV_LeGenD
DMV_LeGenD's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/14/2009
Posts: 3445
Points: 4373
Offline
Mine

1. Washington
2. Sacreamento
3. New Jersey

R-Dot-13
R-Dot-13's picture
Registered User
Joined: 12/14/2008
Posts: 2550
Points: 2609
Offline
1. Houston 2. Toronto 3.

1. Houston
2. Toronto
3. Memphis

RUDEBOY_
RUDEBOY_'s picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/10/2010
Posts: 7333
Points: 13185
Offline
MMMMMM

My ex-girlfriend said her hairdresser told her.. that she heard her friend's cousin talking to his baby momma...and she told him that she heard her aunt's boyfriend's sister's baby daddy's brother's 9th baby momma's grandmother's next door neighbor's mom who has a niece that work as a maid for David Stern said she heard from the gardener's fiance who is a driver for David Stern said she was listening when he told Joe Dumars to try to act surprised when he gets the 1st pick...

1.Detroit
2.New Jersey
3.76'ers

BasterdInABasket
BasterdInABasket's picture
Registered User
Joined: 02/28/2010
Posts: 1392
Points: 2302
Offline
#1 Toronto

Demar Derozan is going to be representing Toronto this year. His energy and athleticism is going help to give them the first pick. lol Honestly how do you predict the lottery order?

JoeWolf1
JoeWolf1's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/28/2009
Posts: 8136
Points: 16268
Online
1. Minnesota 2. New Jersey 3.

1. Minnesota
2. New Jersey
3. Indiana

8th Deadly Sin, I figured you'd know that the team with the best chance rarely wins, since the modern lottery format only 3 teams with the worst record have won the lottery. Crunch all the numbers you want, but never say never. Orlando in 93, Chicago got Derrick Rose on a 1.7 % chance. stranger things have happened and despite the odds (which I understand fully) it's a game of chance. You're probably right that the Clips won't get a top 3 pick and NJ falls out of the top 3, but it's not an impossibility.

SpencerIsHawesome2
SpencerIsHawesome2's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 899
Points: 1022
Offline
All I know is I hope

All I know is I hope Sacramento stays in the top-4 and doesn't get dicked again

the lake show
Registered User
Joined: 01/13/2010
Posts: 8202
Points: 1200
Offline
you gotta understand that

you gotta understand that clipper fan doesnt always view things realistically. he views them as clippers getting the best or near the best of a situation

cthao9
cthao9's picture
Registered User
Joined: 01/29/2009
Posts: 25
Points: 8
Offline
Minnesota's turn.

The Wolves have been screwed every time in the lottery. They have never moved up before. This has to be the time.

1. Wolves
2. Wizards
3. Nets

The8thDeadlySin
The8thDeadlySin's picture
Registered User
Joined: 07/02/2008
Posts: 4392
Points: 5840
Offline
Joe, I never said that the

Joe, I never said that the Nets were going to get the number 1 pick. I simply said that they most likely will get a top 3 pick and they are guaranteed a top 4 pick. The odds of the Clippers getting a top 3 pick along with the Nets not getting a top 3 pick are just unreal. Yes, there is a chance that it would happen but I will bet anyone, any amount of money that this doesnt happen. You name your price and I will put that much money on the line..

the27guy
Registered User
Joined: 06/17/2009
Posts: 299
Points: 848
Offline
Actually,

8thDeadlySin, probabilities are kind of my thing. Some of my Masters degree coursework centered around probability and I think saying that ". The odds of the Clippers getting a top 3 pick along with the Nets not getting a top 3 pick are just unreal." is false. Since the Clips tied for 8th worst with the Knicks, the two teams basically average the weights of getting a top 3 pick. That leads to the Clips having about a 9.5% chance of getting the number 1,2, or 3 pick (not exactly good, but still highly possible. If that were to happen, then the Nets would only have two chances at a top 3 pick, which would be nearly exactly 50%. If you multiply these two together you get 4.75%.

What all this means is that there is nearly a 5% chance that the Clips walk away with a top three pick and the Nets get #4. Obviously, this is not likely, but a 1:20 shot isn't really that crazy. In fact, it's actually more likely that the Clips get a top 3 and the Nets get #4, than it is for the Nets to get #1, Wolves get #2, and Kings get #3 (under 2% that combination in that order happens!).

mikeyvthedon
mikeyvthedon's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 5600
Points: 13187
Offline
76ers

Would be a good fit for Wall. At the same time, I feel that the Nets/Clippers are both cursed teams, though one of them is more likely to turn it around the other (I'll give you a hint, it is NOT the one without the Billionaire Russian Owner). But, I like making predictions on the lottery, and am rarely right. I was right about 2002 (Washington), and I think I said something about Chicago in 2008, but other than that, tough to predict. But, here goes, with a mini mock:

1. Philadelphia 76ers (John Wall)
2. Golden State Warriors (Evan Turner)
3. New Jersey Nets (Derrick Favors)
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (Wesley Johnson)
5. Sacramento Kings (DeMarcus Cousins)
6. Washington Wizards (Al-Farouq Aminu)
7. Detroit Pistons (Greg Monroe)
8. LA Clippers (Xavier Henry)
9. Utah Jazz (Patrick Patterson)
10. Indiana Pacers (Cole Aldrich)
11. New Orleans Hornets (Ed Davis)
12. Memphis Grizzlies (Ekpe Udoh)
13. Toronto Raptors (Hassan Whiteside)
14. Houston Rockets (Paul George)
15. Milwaukee Bucks (James Anderson)
16. Minnesota Timberwolves (Donatas Motiejunas)
17. Chicago Bulls (Damion James)
18. Miami Heat (Eric Bledsoe)
19. Boston Celtics (Gordon Hayward)
20. San Antonio Spurs (Luke Babbitt)
21. Oklahoma City Thunder (Craig Brackins)
22. Portland Trail Blazers (Daniel Orton)
23. Minnesota Timberwolves (Devin Ebanks)
24. Atlanta Hawks (Lance Stephenson)
25. Memphis Grizzlies (Avery Bradley)
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (Larry Sanders)
27. New Jersey Nets (Gani Lawal)
28. Memphis Grizzlies (Stanley Robinson)
29. Orlando Magic (Dominique Jones)
30. Washington Wizards (Solomon Alabi)

The8thDeadlySin
The8thDeadlySin's picture
Registered User
Joined: 07/02/2008
Posts: 4392
Points: 5840
Offline
Exactly.. 5%... That is

Exactly.. 5%... That is pretty unrealistic... If you were about to have surgery and the doctor told you that there is a 5 percent chance that you were going to live, you would go ahead and say goodbye..

In probability, nothing is impossible, just improbable....

I am a math major so I love numbers but also understand that anything can happen. I dont base my life on numbers or anything..

the27guy
Registered User
Joined: 06/17/2009
Posts: 299
Points: 848
Offline
Nice. I'm liking the surgery

Nice. I'm liking the surgery analogy. "you'd go ahead and say goodbye" Nice.

But that's what makes the lottery so great! Something crazy has to happen! As I just pointed out, the sinlge most likely scenario has less than a 2% chance of happening. So, you wouldn't really bet your life on anything in this. If you had a 25% chance of surviving surgery (the same odds the Nets have of getting #1), you'd probably say goodbye too, right?

IndianaBasketball
IndianaBasketball's picture
Registered User
Joined: 05/09/2009
Posts: 12694
Points: 23979
Offline
I'd be scared if the doctor

I'd be scared if the doctor told me I had a 25% chance of surviving surgery, but I'd rather hear 25% than 5% lol.

Windy City Assassin
Registered User
Joined: 03/11/2010
Posts: 6369
Points: 5521
Offline
1.Nets-I'm going off a prayer

1.Nets-I'm going off a prayer & a miracle here!!!!! My fingers are crossed
2.Warriors
3.Kings

The8thDeadlySin
The8thDeadlySin's picture
Registered User
Joined: 07/02/2008
Posts: 4392
Points: 5840
Offline
Yea... However, like I said

Yea... However, like I said earlier, I will put up my house and my car saying that the Clippers dont get a top 3 pick..

the lake show
Registered User
Joined: 01/13/2010
Posts: 8202
Points: 1200
Offline
lol..i love the

lol..i love the analogies..and yeah i dont wanna hear 5% or 25% chance of living

on another note i see the twolves going with cousins instead or johnson. makes more sense because brewer played well and the love jefferson combo wont work. cousins can play center so you move jefferson or love(love fits better because he's a better shooter) and trade jefferson for a good shooting and draft picks or other players

mikeyvthedon
mikeyvthedon's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 5600
Points: 13187
Offline
Darko!

I may be insane, and yes, I believe I am, but do you not at least think Darko deserves a chance to try and prove himself at 5 in Minnesota. That is why I say they maybe take a Wesley Johnson over DeMarcus Cousins, maybe even move Brewer to the 2, have a huge line-up. Granted, you maybe can say that DeMarko Mousins (the combination of DeMarcus and Darko), could work playing half and half, but I have higher aspirations for the Dark man. I still long for the day when I can finally say it is the Dark Ages! But, since those days are likely not coming, I will just have to agree that DeMarcus Cousins would be a better pick than Wesley Johnson there. Cousins upside is too much too pass up, and I never thought that Jefferson and Love would work, which is a reason I think they will look to ship Kevin Love. But, do you really like Corey Brewer at 3? He was always to slight for me at the 3, but intriguing at the 2, though he is not a great shooter. But at 6'9, I could see Brewer being that nice combo off the bench, a la a skinnier Marvin Williams (though Atlanta probably never wanted him to be allocated as a 6th man when they took him in 2005). But do you not think the Timberwolves would be the team to address their woes on the wing instead of taking a big man with an incredibly high ceiling? Or would they take Derrick Favors, just because they like the P positions so much (PG, PF)? I could see them doing it, because as of right now, they seem like a team that would go against the old addage that you are not supposed to draft on need. They draft on need, and than have back-up plans just in case the need doesn't work out. Ha, you thought David Kahn didn't know what he was doing?

Charlie Sheen
Charlie Sheen's picture
Registered User
Joined: 03/16/2010
Posts: 1237
Points: 641
Offline
Mine

1. Detroit- Stern wants to revive the Motor City---Wall
2. Sacremento-Cousins---Evans and Cousins can you say almost Shaq and Kobe(with no jumper)
3. New Jersey- Evan Turner cant turn down his versatility

RUDEBOY_
RUDEBOY_'s picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/10/2010
Posts: 7333
Points: 13185
Offline
...

wesley johnson will be an above average player

Mr.BigShot
Registered User
Joined: 05/03/2010
Posts: 181
Points: 1300
Offline
1. Sacremento(Evan Turner) 2.

1. Sacremento(Evan Turner)
2. New Jersey( John Wall)
3. Golden State( DeMarcus Cousins+Curry and Ellis....

RSS: Syndicate content