[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

Updated: May 17, 2010, 12:46 PM ET

Finding the perfect mate

Which superstar shines brightest next to King James? “LeBron Rating” reveals all.

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

The conference finals are under way, but let’s be honest: The biggest story in the NBA is LeBron James’ upcoming free-agency tour. Nothing less than the future of the league is at stake. OK, that might be a bit extreme, but you can argue that a player of his stature has never been available at such a young age. With that in mind, Insider brings you LeBron Week, a five-part look at every aspect of James’ decision. First up, John Hollinger examines the best possible sidekick for LeBron.

LeBron James hits free agency in six weeks, and we’ve read a lot of tea leaves about which landing spots would work best for him. But today, it’s time to turn the analysis on its head: Which players would benefit most from teaming up with LeBron?

For the purposes of brevity and sanity, I’m restricting the debate to star players who could plausibly team up with LeBron next year. Sure, Kobe Bryant would make a great teammate for King James, but I don’t see that one as being terribly realistic.

Instead, let’s look at what, statistically, might make a player a good fit with LeBron and then work backward to determine which ones possess the most positive attributes.

In order, here are the most important criteria:

1. He will not hog the ball. LeBron ranked second in the NBA last year with a 32.2 usage rate, which doesn’t leave a ton of possessions for another ball-hungry player. The fact is, LeBron’s teammates will be playing off the ball most of the time, and anyone doing his own thing is just taking the ball out of LeBron’s hands.

Additionally, James’ strength and stamina enable him to play 40 minutes 80 times per season, so there are relatively few opportunities for a ball-needy player to operate while LeBron is on the bench. This is one reason why many question how a LeBron-Dwyane Wade partnership would work — Wade led the league in usage rate last year.

2. He will space the floor. The ideal James teammate will play on the outside, not on the inside, because that creates maximum space for James to complete his freight train drives to the rim. The best complements are players who both take and make a large percentage of their shots from the perimeter. To rate this for our purposes, I used a player’s shooting percentage on long 2-pointers this season, courtesy of NBA.com.

3. He will finish what he starts. A high-usage player is going to have trouble pairing with LeBron, but a high-efficiency player should thrive. We’re looking for players with a high true shooting percentage — a player’s shooting percentage adjusted for 3-pointers and free throws — since those players can take best advantage of the shot opportunities LeBron creates for them.

4. He will crash the boards. Wherever he goes, James is likely to lead the team in shot attempts … and in misses. That’s why an Anderson Varejao-type who crashes the boards can be so successful as one of his teammates. While few star players fit this profile, there are a couple who supplement their scoring with offensive boards, and they’d make better complements for James.

So we have four key metrics we’re looking at for in an ideal James teammate — low usage rate, high TS%, high offensive rebound rate and strong outside shooting numbers. The “low usage” requirement is relative, as every star will be above the league average in that category; similarly, the bar for offensive rebound rate needs to be set low, since most stars are taking the shots, not collecting the misses. Nonetheless, this at least provides some guidelines for our star search.

Using this data, I created a “LeBron Rating” for each player by taking three-fourths of the player’s true shooting percentage, subtracting half his usage rate, adding his offensive rebound rate and subtracting twice his turnover rate.

From that, we get results that neatly split the top dogs on the league’s primary LeBron contenders into five groups:

Potential LeBron teammates: a comparison

Player Usg TS% TO Off. Reb. Long 2% LeBron Rating

Chris Bosh 25.9 59.2 9.6 9.9 46.3 71.7
Dirk Nowitzki 26.1 57.8 7.0 3.1 47.2 69.3
David Lee 22.2 58.4 10.0 8.4 43.9 68.6
Amare Stoudemire 24.4 61.5 11.6 9.7 41.0 66.6
Carlos Boozer 23.1 59.9 12.3 8.2 45.2 65.9
Joe Johnson 25.3 53.8 7.2 3.0 42.1 61.3
Rudy Gay 21.0 53.5 9.5 4.2 40.8 58.8
Derrick Rose 26.3 53.2 9.8 2.6 44.3 56.3
Dwyane Wade 33.2 56.2 9.8 4.5 35.8 51.4
Devin Harris 25.2 51.2 10.9 1.2 39.1 47.3
Baron Davis 24.7 50.1 10.8 2.4 36.0 45.6

The perfect companion: Chris Bosh
Bosh hits every check mark on the list above. He’s an outstanding midrange shooter who would provide a fearsome weapon on the pick-and-pop, something James has never really had in Cleveland. His offensive rebound rate (9.9 percent) was in the top third of power forwards, which is amazing considering how often he played outside. His turnover rate was in the bottom third and his TS% (59.2) was outstanding.

Near-perfect companions: Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire, David Lee, Carlos Boozer
The lesson here: Pairing LeBron with a floor-spacing 4 can be really, really effective. We’ll start with Nowitzki, the gold standard in this category. Dallas doesn’t have the cap space to pursue LeBron, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try like the dickens with some combo of Erick Dampier’s nonguaranteed deal, talented prospect Rodrigue Beaubois and any other goodies ($3 million and a future first-rounder, for instance) they can muster.

If they pulled it off, Dirk and LeBron would make a fearsome pair. Nowitzki doesn’t rebound like Bosh does but is an even better outside shooter; and, as with Bosh, Nowitzki has both a low turnover rate and a high TS%.

Stoudemire isn’t as good an outside shooter, but he’s solid from midrange and otherwise possesses similar qualities as Bosh — a stellar TS% (61.5), a strong offensive rebound rate and a fairly low rate of turnovers.

Lee and Boozer are birds of a feather when it comes to playing with LeBron — they both can stick a midrange jumper but their primary value comes in slamming home offensive rebounds and making hard dives to the basket after they set screens. Boozer (59.9) and Lee (58.4) both had strong TS% and low turnover rates, and are good offensive rebounders; one worry, however, is that neither can defend a twig.

Now we’re forcing things a bit: Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Derrick Rose
On the perimeter, Johnson and Gay would each provide James with a huge tag-team partner on the wing; this might be less than ideal defensively against quicker 2s but would be pretty fearsome on offense. However, both players are more comfortable playing with the ball and neither is a high-percentage sniper; Johnson (53.8) and Gay (53.2) had middling TS% stats and only average offensive rebound rates. While both numbers might increase in a subordinate role, it’s not the killer combo that the four power forwards above provide.

Similarly, Rose’s game is hardly a perfect match for James. He wants the ball in his hands (second among point guards in usage rate), and while he’s a very good midrange shooter, he doesn’t have the catch-and-shoot, long-range game that would help space the floor for LeBron when he’s off the ball. While Rose is likely to improve in the coming years, and would form a devastating running mate in transition, the combo isn’t ideal.

Whole less than sum of its parts: Dwyane Wade, Devin Harris
Let’s get this straight: LeBron with Wade would be awesome together because of their overwhelming talent. But it’s naive to think that pairing the two stars wouldn’t subtract from the output of each. Wade had the league’s highest usage rate this past season, is a limited jump shooter and is relatively turnover prone. Playing off the ball, he’d be far less useful than a Bosh or a Nowitzki.

Harris has a similar issue — he’s a straight dribble-driver who doesn’t have a role to play off the ball. Like Rose and Wade, he’s at his best when he can be the one at the top of the key handling the ball and slashing through defenses. As a catch-and-shoot weapon, he’s mediocre at best.

The worst: Baron Davis
The Los Angeles Clippers want to sell James on the quality of the four players they already have in place, but the best of the bunch (Davis) could hardly be less suited to playing with him. A stubborn ball-dominator who shoots erratically, Davis’ TS% (50.1) was among the worst of NBA stars. Spotting up on the weak side from James, he’d be more than happy to hoist 3s and, unfortunately, that’s a problem, since he converts so few of them.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

Is anybody surprised that LeBron is the 2nd most ball dominate player in the league? He had a 32.2 usage rate. He’s only 2nd to Dwayne Wade, which isn’t surprising.

It’s no wonder why Michael Beasley, a player who’s somewhat ball hungry and needs the ball, hasn’t lived up to his potential. There’s no room for him to. The same goes for Antawn Jamison. He’s used to having the ball in his hands and having the space he needs to go to work. He didn’t get that on Cleveland, especially vs Boston when LeBron’s usage rate went up!

You can’t be effective playing with a player like James or Wade, unless you can efficiently play off of the ball and knock down open jumpers. That’s why I think it’s tough to play with them.

[mgreener_34Participant]

The sad part is Jameson sounds exactly like that type of player…hmm

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

I wish I could’ve copied and pasted the actual chart located in the middle of the article, but couldn’t… It’s confusing since it’s not in chart format, so read it carefully.

[JNixonParticipant]

I like that post alot and generally agree with everything said. I do get the feeling though that Joe Johnson could play with Lebron. He can shoot, play off the ball, defend, and be a big threat with the ball in his hands. He’s a better fit than stats may show, and would make a good 2nd option to a ball-dominant player. He probably would need to be less ball-dominant than he has been, but I’m sure he’d have no problem with that playing alongside someone like Joe Johnson.

[marcusfizer21Participant]

So much for Rose-LeBron tandem… But that post means a lot… Now if only we could have let Danny Ferry read that one…LOL

[ZeroParticipant]

Would the Knicks be able to afford Bosh, Johnson , and Lebron if they take some money from Joe/Chris and get rid of Curry ?

[cumoneileen8Participant]

I think it is a good point to make. However, the nay-saying of the Lebron to the Heat scenarios and his supposed incompatibility with DWade is misguided to me.

Wade’s demand for the ball is greatly overstated. He had to do absolutely everything for his team for years. If people think Lebron’s supporting cast is bad, Wade’s is embarrassing…of course he hogs the ball. You can’t tell me the coexistence of 2 of the top 3 players in the league on one team wouldn’t have a positive result. Their individual numbers MIGHT fall a bit (30ppg down to 25, what a tragedy) but the numbers of all of their teammates would definitely increase with the greatly decreased pressure on them.

And I say MIGHT decrease because it is also likely that they would simply make each other even better. Teams have a hard enough time game-planning to stop one of them let alone both, so it is highly likely that one would take advantage of any plan to stop the other. Plus, if you think they can’t play together well or share the ball, look at the olympics.

Just my opinion, but my idea of the Wade-Lebron tandem is less of a fight for control and more likely an overpowering control of the game that could often simply look like a clinic.

[NYK2010Participant]

Yeah he dominates the ball thats the Cavs offense instead of having a pure PG that runs the offense most of the time.
Need to get Lebron off the ball, using his athleticism to put pressure on the opposing team.
Instead they just have Lebron spend all his energy creating shots for himself and others which needs to change.

[BasterdInABasketParticipant]

If Im taking a player with lebron for the next 2 or 3 years im definitely going with nowitski. Lebrons never had a player that could create his own shot on a regular basis and these guys usually face instant double teams on their current teams. Dirk can spread the floor like no big in the history of the nba. He will be 32 when next season starts however and only has maybe 2 or 3 years of playing at an elite level imo. I dont see him leaving dallas either so its unlikely that hed team up with lebron.
I would like to see what lebron and dirk – 2 guys who havent been able to come up with a ring could do together though.
Pairing lebron with bosh would instantly make that team (the knicks) an instant contender and is defintiely the best long term option as a teammate to lebron.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

LeBron doesn’t have the skill set to play off of the ball, other than cutting to the basket for alley oops, layups, etc.

He doesn’t catch and shoot well, has an inconsistent jumper, has limited post game, mid-range/in between game, etc. Mike Brown isn’t a creative offensive coach, but I think he played to LeBron’s strengths… Which is allowing LeBron to dominate on the ball like that.

[NYK2010Participant]

Do the Mavs have enough for a sign n trade I could actually see the Cavs move Lebron to the West so they don’t have to deal with him in their own Conf. at least.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

“Dallas doesn’t have the cap space to pursue LeBron, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try like the dickens with some combo of Erick Dampier’s nonguaranteed deal, talented prospect Rodrigue Beaubois and any other goodies ($3 million and a future first-rounder, for instance) they can muster.”

[NYK2010Participant]

BTW the Knicks don’t need Joe Johnson they have Wilson Chandler.
No need to pay 15 mill or more for Johnson who isn’t a premier go to guy.
The Knicks have more needs than a SG like Johnson.

[Toronto16Participant]

Lebron and Bosh would be plain scary. Too bad that couldn’t happen in Toronto.

[ItsVictorOladipoParticipant]

Damn, Hollinger is the biggest basketball nerd I have ever seen…

[sacphil_08Participant]

I think lebrons best teammate would be Dirk. Dirk is to the point where he’s been the main guy, was close or somewhat close to winning a ring and came up short. I feel like he’s in the same situation kg, Ray Allen and Paul pierce were when they got together and decided that not one person needed to dominate but all three needed to play their part. The only issue I see here is the possibility that Lebron would want to take the last shot over Dirk. Lebron is great but he’s not a closer and he’s definitely not the closer tha Dirk is. If lebron could accept that then Dallas could win multiple chamionships. I wouldn’t be all to surprised if he went to Dallas because Cuban loves to get big players in blockbuster deals. And like mentioned dampiers contract could be VERY appealing.

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

I love it…its totally true. I’ve said it for the past, who knows how long. Lebron is a hard guy to play with and build a team around. Becasue he dominates the ball too much and nobody else can get in a rythm. Everybody has to “play off lebron”…thats not basketball. Its incredibly difficult to function to the greatest capacity when everybody plays off one guy. Thats been Clevelands problem for years…everybody plays off Lebron…and every team knows nobody will do anything other than Bron.

The best teams have balance…and so far it just seems like the Lebron James teams cant get balance. It will be interesting to see if he can improve that aspect of his game, it will be interesting to see what happens and how he is utilized if he does go to another team.

Butler! You are the man! I am with you 100%…Lebron and Wade are tough guys to play with. Their offensive abilities almost hurt their teams in my opinion, because everybody becomes ball watchers.

There must be a balance. A Kingdom cant function with jsut a King and peasents. There must be Nobles, Knights, maybe some Archers, and some young attractive princess’…what the hell am I talking about…its late an I, tired.

[M-DYMESParticipant]

Personally, I don’t love the Bosh/Bron tandem. I think what Bron really needs is a guy who is more assertive and aggressive on the floor since that is something LBJ really lacks. IMO, Wade would be a great fit. They would need bigs, but Bron would really benefit from working with a guy who is willing to go get his despite having LBJ on his team.

[wesleymatthews23Participant]

I disagree with all of you. I think Booz and Bron would be a great tandem. They were already teammates once, so they have a tiny but of chemistry. Booz is a great outside shooter, a great rebounder and I know he cant defend well but he is willing to learn, and if you have a great teaching coach and Lebron himself, Booz could learn how to defend. Of course Utah could never never land both Booz and Lebron, but maybe they could combine elsewhere. New Jersey, New York, Miami (goodbye Wade) are all possible suitors. New York and New Jersey probably have the best chance though. I think Bron, Booz would be great with Harris. Lets just hope Nets will not get Wall which would destroy the Nets chances of getting Bron because Wall is very ball dominant.

[DNYCE]

Joe Johnson will be in Cleveland next year in a sign and trade for Delonte West and possibly a filler. No more excuses Lehype fans.

[Author]

Posts