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- Posted on: Wed, 01/12/2011 - 2:17pm #24782
valentineOn Tuesday, I wrote about some of the top frosh in college basketball in terms of how they’re performing at the college level — but playing college ball and playing in the NBA are vastly different things. This entry looks at those same players — Josh Selby, Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Perry Jones and more — in terms of how they might translate to the professional side of the coin.
Josh Selby
Selby is a strong, quick NBA combo guard prospect whose explosiveness can get him into the lane easily and with both hands. Once there, he plays with a high IQ, has excellent vision and is a good decision-maker.
If he has a weakness, it’s an inability to finish floaters in the paint; he’s shooting 9-of-29 from 2-point range.
With a premium placed on young attacking guards like Russell Westbrook, Monta Ellis and Derrick Rose, and because of NBA rules that limit on-ball contact by defenders out front, Selby will find himself in the back end of the lottery if he declares for the draft this spring. His maturity is a natural question because of his age but his skill package is nicely suited for the next level.
Harrison Barnes
I hope I am wrong about this — but right now, I do not think Barnes can impact an NBA team as a rookie.
When wide open, Barnes is a very good shooter. I’ve watched every jumper he’s taken this season thanks to Synergy Sports Tech, though, and I’ll say this: He takes a ton of contested shots. That problem is compounded by a seeming unwillingness to go to the rack. Barnes shoots about three FTs per game, which is subpar for a scorer. When he drives with his right, especially, he seems to be a bit averse to finishing strong.
He will likely end up in the lottery, but No. 1 — where a lot of people thought he’d be about a year ago — is out of the question right now.
Jared Sullinger
In late November, at an Ohio State game-day practice before the Buckeyes played Florida State, Sullinger was standing at the college 3-point line calming knocking down shots. When I asked him why he didn’t shoot those shots in games, he said, "I don’t need to." He’s right.
While Sullinger is dominating college basketball like Blake Griffin did in his sophomore year at Oklahoma, he is doing it in a completely different way. Griffin dominated above the rim and with superhuman athleticism, while Sullinger is dominating below the rim with strength and guile. Fortunately for the young Buckeye, it will be enough for him to end up in the mid-lottery.
When I watch Sullinger play, I try to find a player in the league whom he mirrors. Guys like Al Horford, Elton Brand and Paul Millsap have carved out good careers in the NBA with similar physical characteristics. And, while not the passer that Kevin Love was upon entering the league, there were similar questions about Love’s ability to succeed in the league.
Like Love, Sullinger has basketball acumen beyond his years. He is the son of a high school coach who has made sure that his game is fundamentally sound. Technically, he understands ways to score around the basket without elevating over more athletic players.
Getty ImagesHarrison Barnes is struggling — in part because he tries to force too many contested jumpers.In that Florida State game in November, the Seminoles ganged up on him with the size of guys like Chris Singleton, Xavier Gibson and Bernard James. Sullinger battled them all night in an easy Ohio State victory. While his 11 points and 13 rebounds might not seem impressive, the way he battled the three of them on every play impressed me.
At 19, Sullinger is just a puppy. However, if he elects to enter the NBA draft in June, he will end up a solid professional basketball player for the next 12 or so years.
Perry Jones
I live in Dallas, and last spring I saw Jones work out quite a bit. He has a tremendous basketball body. He’s 6-foot-10, 230 pounds — might still be growing — and he can handle the ball like a forward or a guard.
He has a tremendous work ethic and attitude, as well.
In Baylor’s system, though, Jones tends to drift in and out of the game offensively and defer to upperclassmen LaceDarius Dunn and Quincy Acy. In fact, he is averaging less than 10 shots a game. You could make an argument that he’s too nice.
Ultimately, however, the opportunity to draft a player with Jones’ enormous potential will be too enticing for NBA teams to pass up.
Brandon Knight
Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans. John Wall.
Knight?
John Calipari has a good track record with sending guards to the NBA — but at 6-3, Knight isn’t as strong as Evans, and he isn’t as fast as Rose or Wall.
Knight benefits from being in Kentucky’s attacking, dribble drive motion offense in large part because he has the freedom to score and has taken advantage of that. His shooting percentages, both inside the arc and outside of it, have been solid. In addition, he is explosive to the rim — although he doesn’t yet have the frame to finish in the NBA.
Because Knight is a shoot-first guard for Kentucky and has always had a scorer’s mentality, there will be an adjustment when he is asked to run an NBA team from the point guard spot. His 23 percent Turnover Rate is an indication of the adjustment he will have to make.
Ultimately, Knight is likely to be a middle of the first round selection for a team that is satisfied with drafting a small, scoring guard in that position. The likelihood of another Calipari-coached NBA Rookie of the Year award winner is slim, though.
Tobias Harris
Harris, at 6-8, is a bit undersized to play productively around the basketball as a rookie and isn’t quick enough to guard NBA small forwards right now. Instead, he’s a jack-of-all-trades type who can rebound, handle the ball in transition in some isolation situations and shoot from the mid-range. And he plays with a good IQ and with good, but not great, energy.
Getty ImagesTobias Harris is likely a late first-rounder.In a perfect basketball world, Harris returns to Tennessee as a sophomore and is one of the 10 best players in college basketball next season, assuming he makes normal improvement. It’s more likely he’ll jump and go near the back of the first round.
Fab Melo
The process of becoming an NBA prospect for Melo could take all four years at Syracuse and there is nothing wrong with that. He has NBA size but lacks NBA athleticism. His offensive skill level is low at the moment.
In Melo’s favor is the great job that Jim Boeheim and his staff have done through the years in developing young big men. From Rony Seikaly, Etan Thomas, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are just some of the names.
There is a lot of work ahead for the young Brazilian, so patience needs to be a virtue
0 - Posted on: Wed, 01/12/2011 - 5:09pm #474545
ItsVictorOladipoParticipantNice writeup.
I have to say though there is one player in the league that Sullinger’s play reminds me of immediately it’s Zach Randolph. The one difference is that Sullinger has a better head on his shoulders
0 - Posted on: Wed, 01/12/2011 - 9:04pm #474650
iguapops420ParticipantI disagree that Melo lacks the athleticism. He’s just been injured.
0 - Posted on: Wed, 01/12/2011 - 9:34pm #474663
ilike.panochasParticipantI’m probably one of the very few that thinks Sullinger doesn’t belong in top 10. I’m just weary due to his conditioning, and lack of explosiveness and the fact that he’s basically a non factor on the defensive end (0.5 blocks a game). I see Sean May in him at best he could be Clearance Weatherspoon.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 5:39am #474705
LAKE SHOWyou can’t look at blocks and determine if someone is a good defender or not. He is a good defender, a pretty good one he just doesn’t block shots. How many games have you watched because he has very good condidtion. He beats smaller guys up the court on offenese and defense and doesn’t have to come out of games for lack of condition
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 6:37am #474712
HitsterParticipantI quite like the Zach Randolph scorer as a comparision for Sullinger. If he can have Randolph’s type game on a much more mature head then he could have a very good NBA career. Also I agree that Sullinger can be a better defender than Randolph and whilst he will be a prolific rebounder, I don’t ever see defence being the key part of his game although he can use his size to fill the lane and bully people inside the paint.
There are several good NBA fits in Sullinger’s draft range, the Cavs who have Varejao as their defensive anchor could use him as their front court scorcer, Washington where he could play alongside McGee and have John Wall as his playmaker. New Jersey would be an interesting fit if the Melo trade doesn’t go ahead as Sullinger, Favours and Brook Lopez all bring something different to the front court and they could be used in rotation by Coach Johnson with Sullinger and Favours playing around Lopez.
Detroit have not had a big inside presence for several years and again Sullinger compliments Charlie V and Greg Monroe who are more perimeter orientated. Big Ben could help to mentor him and improve his defensive game along the way. Detroit need a good rebounder alongside Bargnani who again is a more finesse big man.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 7:10am #474724
BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipantI kind of wonder how many consecutive double-doubles Greg Monroe has to get as a rookie before some of these odd tags he got in high school are removed. Apparently, he plays hard. It seems like he is capable of rebounding, and because the Pistons don’t really get him very many touches in their isolation oriented offense he has kind of been glued to the paint to get offensive rebounds and be the rookie who does grunt work inside. It is also kind of funny how his quick hands find a way to poke the ball out on defense, but that was another knock on him because apparently he wasn’t going to be able to do anything on that end. You can’t take some of these scouting reports on players like they are infallible doctrine. As for pairing him and Sullinger, it would work because they are both good, talented, and versatile.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 7:14am #474725
LAKE SHOWI like the idea of him in washington next to McGee. Even though he doesn’t show it much he has a very nice midrange jumper and can step out and hit the college three. I like his mentality of " why shoot it when no one can stop me downlow" I wish more big men would do that and then shoot the midrange when they are getting stopped down low
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 8:06am #474750
HitsterParticipantThe "I don’t need to" quote about his possible 3 point range was a great quote by Jared, some bigs fall in love with their perimeter game and thus now when you see an inside banger like Blake Griffin it is more the exception than the norm compared to a few years ago. If Sullinger has genuine 3 point range in his arsenal then it can be used on occasion or if he is kept out of the paint but his bread and butter will be his inside game.
Greg Monroe has had 4 successive double doubles according to ESPN and he is developing very nicely in another hard season for Detroit. No doubt working with Big Ben has helped him and with Greg having an excellent basketball IQ and passing ability for a big man then he can use this to excellent effect in the NBA especially on the defensive end as Both Teams Play Hard rightly points out. A big man’s main defensive duty is to grab the rebounds but if he has the court vision to see the better attacking pass then that’s a great asset to have rather than just getting rid of the ball straight to your PG as a lot of bigs are no doubt drilled to do.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 8:49am #474765
LAKE SHOWYea it kills me when a scout says a big man cant do this or that (instead of saying he hasn’t shown the ability to do it) when alot of times its just that the big man doesn’t show it but he can do it. On alot of teams they have specific role for a big man even if the big man has the ability to do other things.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:11am #474810
RUDEBOY_ParticipantSullinger plays like another former Buckeye ,CBS Commentator Clark Kellogg..Kellogg was about 6’7 but played bigger then his size…was a beast on the boards and averaged a double double his rookie year…..But injuries cut his career short….When Barkley came into the nba, folks were comparing him to Kellogg….
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:26am #474830
lalailaParticipantyeah i’m pretty much suprised with Monroe’s double double..looks like too early to say his rookie year isn’t as good as we thought…he avg 35mpg in college and grabbed 9.6(which was very big increase comparing with freshman year) now in the last for gmaes around 33mpg and 11.5(!) rpg, wow..also everyone knows that sooner or later he will show his passing but his versatility isn’y only there he gets huge 2.25 steals per game avg..
as for Sullinger i think he can easily continue to rise and to be as high as top3 pick..when you have 18&10 from "you know what you get" prospect is lottery worth at least and on the team like OSU this year it makes you top10 but when you are also only 18 and show that you can still improve a lot..it’s a perfect pick..at least a very good player and in my opinion no reasons not to think that the guy has chances to be a star..(people just don’t love under 6’10 non high flying kids at pf)
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:33am #474856
LAKE SHOWI told someone that he will become a better rebounder after his freshman year after they said he would never be a good rebounder because he didnt rebound at a high rate as a freshman. Cant rmember who but imma go find it
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:58pm #474873
BKKnicksfanParticipantGood prospect, but the comparisons just show you where he can fall into. He could be a Milsap kind of guy or a franchise player like Elton Brand
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/13/2011 - 1:27pm #474881
The Scare Crow ReturnsParticipantBut he will likely fall out of the top 5 because of the questions about height and athletism. I don’t see the Brand, Millsap or Randolph comparisons but I think he can be big baby type with better low post scoring and higher ceiling. I think he’s very much a fringe starter for any good team but the 6th man on a great team. The Cavs, Raptors and Wolves should stay away from him but a team like the Paces or Bucks would be perfect fits for him. He’d be the 3rd or 4th option for his first few seasons.
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