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valentine1. Greg Monroe is killing it.
I watched him jog a lot at Georgetown and many NBA scouts questioned his heart and motor because of his inconsistent efforts. Then when the season began, he could have earned the nickname "digital man" because he filled the stat sheets with zero’s and one’s. Twice in November he didn’t score in 18 minutes of action (once against the defensively challenged Warriors). In fact, he didn’t register his first double-figure scoring game until Dec. 1.
Then the calendar flipped to 2011 — he’s averaged at least 10.9 points and 8.8 boards in each month this year. Plus, he’s making almost 60 percent of his shots, thanks to good discipline which leads to excellent shot selection. The Pistons are a better offensive team now, and Monroe might be the most important cog in that wheel.
Fields 2. Landry Fields can shoot and rebound at this level.
Sure, he played lots of power forward his last season in Stanford and averaged 8.8 boards per game. But in the NBA, the first guy to the ball normally wins and Fields would be stationed on the wing as a pro. The Knicks got Fields in the second round precisely because no one projected he would be able to rebound as a wing, and his shot was very suspect as well.
We saw that he could play in summer league, but who would’ve guessed he’d be averaging 6.9 rebounds and shooting 40 percent from 3 as the Knicks’ starting 2-guard? On top of that, he’s had to make one one major adjustment: Going from primary option to role player, which is not easy. But we’d never know that based on what Fields has done this season.
Patterson 3. Patrick Patterson might be the best jump shooter in this class.
In fact, he might be the best offensive rookie this season. Guys like John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin will likely end up being better offensive players, but Patterson has been terrific. He’s made over 69 percent of his inside shots and over 55 percent from 16 to 23 feet. Nobody puts up numbers like those. Nobody.
He’s also shown the ability to score over people with athleticism, good hands and even the beginnings of some "Scolas" (scoops or half-hooks coming off fakes). Arriving to the NBA with the reputation of someone who knew how to play a role, he might end up being a top-three scorer for a good team early in his career.
4. Cleveland may have three building blocks (and used only one first-round pick).
Cavs fans are hoping the team’s draft picks this year will help turn around the franchise , but this year’s rooks — Christian Eyenga, Manny Harris and Samardo Samuels — all look like guys that can play in this league, too. While it remains to be seen whether or not they can be NBA rotation players on a good team, these guys are exceeding expectations this season. Plus, each still has upside to explore, with the late-blooming Samuels only 22 years old and Eyenga and Harris not turning 22 until the summer.
Assuming the Cavs add top-tier prospects this June with their own pick and the Clippers’ unprotected pick, the Cavs could have five young players to jump-start their future (plus the 23-year-old J.J. Hickson).
Neal 5. Gary Neal is a big difference maker for the league’s best team.
Anyone who watched him in Europe knew he could play, but 29 franchises failed to see what kind of impact he could have on their team. He has made over 41 percent of his 3s this season and almost half of his 2-point shots, thanks to an excellent shooting stroke and even better shot selection.
Neal should be the pioneer now for undrafted players who go overseas for a few years and continue to improve. And the Spurs have taught the league a valuable lesson: Don’t keep recycling players who have been in the NBA but haven’t accomplished anything when there are better players in Europe who haven’t gotten a real chance to prove they belong in the NBA.
6. Gordon Hayward and Xavier Henry have been awful.
It’s difficult to put it any other way. Hayward seemed primed to step into a simple role in Utah, needing only to rebound and defend to earn quality minutes. And Henry, surrounded by talented veterans, just needed to get his silky smooth jumper flowing while contributing in the athletic areas of the game.
Unfortunately, Hayward has proved to be one of the worst rebounding small forwards in the league and is likely the worst defender on the team. Meanwhile, Henry ranks as possibly the worst rebounder/shooter among all shooting guards in the NBA.
Still, while both guys have underperformed dramatically, I would be more surprised if neither guy developed into at least a solid player in the NBA.
Wall 7. John Wall alone can’t help the Wizards return to respectability.
There is almost nothing Wall can’t do well, from creating steals to getting guys easy shots or willing his team to fight because he’s so competitive. He blew into the league after a storied high school career and a great freshman season at UK, and in November he looked like he alone would spark the Wiz to be a much-improved team. But his one major flaw is the big reason he alone can’t carry his team: Wall simply can’t shoot.
He’s making just 28 percent of his shots beyond 16 feet and inside the 3-point line, and 25 percent from 10-15 feet, the two combined ranges he takes most of his shots from. Those numbers are well below Derrick Rose‘s rookie numbers (he made 43 percent from 16-23 feet and 38 percent from 10-15 feet).
Wall is already very good at finishing in the paint, better than Rose was as a rook, but to carry his team he has to be able to make a lot more shots.
Turner 8. Evan Turner struggled during the first few months.
Maybe some people would rank this as a bigger surprise, considering how dominant he was in college. But beginning with summer league in July, we could see a number of factors were going to make Turner’s transition from college superstar to NBA role player very difficult.
Not having the ball in his hands a lot dramatically impacted his feel and confidence early in the season, and consequently, his overall effectiveness sank low. It’s Turner’s fault for not preparing as diligently as he should have this summer and fall, but he’s also been the victim of being on a team that didn’t need his unique set of talents as much as other teams did yet drafted him anyway. Fortunately for him and the Sixers, he has been getting back to being a solid player of late.
9. Al-Farouq Aminu couldn’t miss from deep early, then his shot disappeared.
It’s difficult to figure out which numbers are more surprising, but they are stunning: Aminu made 32 of his first 69 3-pointers and ranked as one of the best deep shooters in the league. Then 2011 hit, and he’s made 10 of his last 59. That’s 10 made 3s in 2½ months, after making 10 in just two weeks in November.
Back then we wrote that, for a player with his talent, he was relying too much on the deep shot. It’s a big reason his overall productivity and efficiency are so low, ranking 24th among rookies in PER.
Griffin 10. Blake Griffin is already a superstar and could be MVP one day.
Everyone knew he was going to be good when he went No. 1 overall in 2009 — "starter good." But then he put up 20 and 14 in his opening game this season — after sitting out all of 2009-10 with a knee injury — and we saw he was going to be able to overpower players with his strength and size.
Still, it was his 44-15-7 game in November that announced to the world he was already a star capable of lifting a bad franchise to higher levels. Dominant performances, highlight dunks and an All-Star berth followed. The rest is history.
This week’s rookie updates
Larry Sanders, Bucks — March 16: To stick in the NBA, oftentimes a player just needs to show one area where he can be a master. For Sanders, he’s going to be here a long time thanks to his shot-blocking talent. The five blocks he had against Cleveland weren’t a career high, but it was the third game in March he had more than two blocks.
Jordan Crawford, Wizards — March 16: Crawford poured in 21 first-half points in a fairly competitive game against the Bulls (who were without Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer). His staccato dribble attack was difficult for defenders to measure and he shot the ball well (and often). He tired in the second half but still showed some interesting signs and even played some backup point guard. He has a chance to be a player in this league, probably as a scoring guard off the bench.
Landry Fields, Knicks — March 16: The Knicks are struggling, but Fields is still steady and productive. On target from inside and outside, Fields has also gotten better with the ball, turning it over less than once per game in March.
Avery Bradley, Celtics — March 15: He’s getting the occasional few minutes in games — close ones and blowouts. But I don’t expect he’ll be active once the playoffs begin.
John Wall, Wizards — March 15: There is little doubt that Wall is now trying to do too much to help his struggling team — slower to pass the ball to open teammates, looking to make special passes instead of easy ones. But it’s nothing to be concerned about. Wall is still fighting for wins, which is the most important thing for him to do right now.
Kevin Seraphin, Wizards — March 15: Seraphin is starting to see things better on defense. Experience makes a difference and he’s starting to anticipate a bit. I’m still not sure what he’ll ultimately be, but I know he’ll get chances this season and the next to prove he belongs.
Eric Bledsoe, Clippers — March 15: Bledsoe is working on his best month thus far, and he’s doing it in about half the minutes he earned in November, his previous best month. Mo Williams is taking most of those minutes now, but that has not slowed Bledsoe, who is averaging 12 points, three rebounds and three assists while shooting 58 percent from the field. It looks like he’s figured out that defenders cannot contain his drives without fouling often, as evidenced by his huge jump in free throws attempted. He’s had seven and nine attempts in his past two games. His previous high was six.
Cole Aldrich, Thunder — March 14: Aldrich is making the occasional spot appearance and basically fouling more than anything else. Don’t read too much into that, though — we don’t get a fair evaluation of players who play such limited minutes.
Samardo Samuels, Cavaliers — March 14: He recorded one double-double and flirted with two others over the past week, though it did not help the Cavs win any games. The jury is still out on him (though at least it is deliberating), and we won’t know for sure what the Cavs have in him until next season. Still, there is room for optimism.
Ed Davis, Raptors — March 14: March has been his best month, averaging 10 points and nine boards with more than two combined blocked shots and steals a game. He’s had five games with 13 or more rebounds since Feb. 11, a huge indicator that he has a chance to be a prime rebounder. Couple that with his excellent scoring sense, and the Raptors appear to have found a long-term replacement for Chris Bosh. While he doesn’t have Bosh’s total talent, we know Toronto can look to draft or acquire help in the other positions — the Raptors are set at PF
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