[valentine]

We interrupt our regular weekly Stock Watches to note that we’ve reached the midway point in the college basketball season. Teams are beginning conference play, which inevitably changes things from a scouting perspective.

 

 

Conference opponents scout much the same way NBA teams do. They understand what star players in their conference like to do and try to take it away from them. Every season a few players smash up against the wall versus the tighter defenses they face in conference play, while others really start to shine.

 

 

So I asked a number of NBA scouts and executives a few questions about the NBA draft that should be answered in the next three months.

 

 

1. Who is the No. 1 pick?

North Carolina small forward Harrison Barnes has been a disappointment. Baylor power forward Perry Jones has been better, but just put up a zero-point effort against Texas Southern. Duke point guard Kyrie Irving was off to a great start but got injured eight games into the season, and it isn’t clear when he’ll be back. Kentucky center Enes Kanter hasn’t played a game due to eligibility issues. Everyone else is talented but not exactly No. 1-pick caliber talent. So, who is No. 1?

 

 

As you can guess, the NBA scouts and execs I spoke with are all over the board. A small handful are expecting Barnes to break out in the second half.

 

 

"He’s struggled, but I believe he’s going to have a big second half of the season," one scout said. "He’s been a guy that just has been trying to find his rhythm with a different system and a team filled with returning guys. I think North Carolina needs him to dominate to succeed in the ACC, and I think [coach] Roy Williams will help facilitate that. If he blows up, he’ll be the No. 1 guy."

 

 

More scouts feel that Irving, despite the injury, is the guy. "We’re in an era of great point guards," one NBA executive said. "So many teams now have top-tier guards. If you don’t have one, you’re going to be at a major disadvantage down the road. Irving can be one of those guys. I think there’s very little risk in taking him, and he can be a guy who can turn around your team."

 

 

But a surprising number had Jones atop their board, not so much for what he’s done, but for who he could be in the pros.

 

 

"He’s the most talented guy in the draft, and he also has the most upside," one NBA executive said. "Baylor doesn’t really know what to do with him, but all of my scouts feel he’s got the most potential; 6-10 players with that sort of athleticism are just hard to come by."

 

 

Factoring in team needs (which always come into play when there is no consensus No. 1), I think Jones has the upper hand, followed by Irving and then Barnes. But all that could change if the guy in question No. 2 comes to play.

 

 

2. Who is Enes Kanter?

Kanter hasn’t played a game for Kentucky this season, which complicates things greatly. He is awaiting word on his appeal from the NCAA. If he’s allowed to play, he could quickly move into the No. 1 talk with a dominant performance for the Wildcats.

 

 

If the NCAA denies his appeal, it will get very interesting. This late in the season, there aren’t a lot of options for Kanter. If he declares for the draft, which is likely, he’ll have to do his damage in individual workouts for teams. He’s not the sort of player who will shine in that setting the way uber-athletic guys do, but given the competition in the paint (and a head-to-head beating of Jared Sullinger at the Nike Hoop Summit), he could still emerge as the default top big man in the draft.

 

 

The scouts and execs I spoke with all had Kanter somewhere between No. 1 (yes, No. 1) and No. 10 on their boards. But no one was really willing to venture a guess on where he lands until we get more info. Stay tuned.

 

3. Who is the best non-freshman draft prospect in the country?

College freshmen and international men of mystery dominate the Top 10 of our Big Board. The highest-rated upperclassmen are UConn point guard Kemba Walker, North Carolina power forward John Henson, Arizona small forward Derrick Williams and Kansas power forward Marcus Morris.

 

 

Who’s the best? Three of the four (Walker, Williams and Morris) are having big, big seasons. But of the group, Henson got the most votes, because he has the most upside. He’s got the sort of length and athleticism that NBA teams covet. Walker is an undersized, shoot-first point guard, and Williams and Morris don’t have traditional positions. So despite their terrific production, most of the scouts I spoke with had Henson rated as the top non-freshman in the U.S.

 

 

4. Are the international men of mystery for real this year?

After the international frenzy of 2002 and 2003, it looked like international players were taking over the league. However, a number of high-profile disappointments — from Nikoloz Tskitishvili to Darko Milicic to Yi Jianlian — have made skeptics of both fans and NBA scouts. Sure, a few players like Anderson Varejao, Andrea Bargnani and Danilo Gallinari have been solid. But the next Dirk Nowitzki has yet to cross the Atlantic.

 

 

Could that change in this draft? Scouts are very high on three international power forwards — Jonas Valanciunas, Jan Vesely and Donatas Motiejunas. All three break the mold of former international busts. Vesely and Motiejunas have been patient with their NBA dreams and now play important minutes for big teams in Europe. Valanciunas is younger, but he also plays solid minutes for a Euroleague team and has a toughness to his game that scouts say is very — wait for it — American. Vesely can jump out of the gym, Motiejunas is an aggressive scorer in the paint, and Valanciunas uses length and quickness to get things done. There are no soft, 3-point-shooting big men here.

 

 

While scouts won’t go so far as calling any of them worthy of the top pick in the draft, most believe all three are likely to crack the Top 10 on draft night.

 

 

5. Who’s most likely to hit the skids in conference play?

Scouts uniformly brought up a candidate who showed problems last season — Washington State shooting guard Klay Thompson. Thompson got off to a red-hot start last season before getting shut down in conference play in the Pac-10. Why will it happen again? Some scouts worry that Thompson doesn’t have the explosion or athleticism to get his own shot when defenses key in on him. After watching him shred folks in Hawaii a week ago, I’m not sure I agree.

 

 

6. Who will rebound in the second half of the season?

Barnes got, by far, the most votes here. Most of the scouts who were believers before the season still think he’s going to be terrific and are waiting for him to break out.

 

 

A few other scouts voted for Florida center Patric Young. Young has all the physical characteristics scouts look for in a player but virtually none of the production. He is averaging 2.4 ppg in his first 13 games and seems lost out there most nights. But scouts were so impressed with his play for Team USA (under-18 squad) this past summer that they believe it’s only a matter of time before he starts to put things together.

 

 

7. Who is the most overrated player on our board right now?

Scouts were a bit all over the place here. Barnes got votes. So did Perry Jones and Kentucky small forward Terrence Jones. A few were really hard on Kemba Walker and Derrick Williams, as well. It was impossible to get a consensus, in part because of the different ways people scout.

 

 

Some were totally unimpressed with Barnes and Jones due to their lack of production. Others were unimpressed with Walker’s and Williams’ physical tools despite their production.

 

 

But the one guy virtually everyone mentioned was Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight. Most of the scouts and executives I spoke with struggled with him as a first-rounder, let alone a lottery pick.

 

 

8. Who is the most underrated?

Again, there wasn’t a ton of consensus here. San Diego State small forward Kawhi Leonard got the most votes, followed by Kansas power forwards Thomas Robinson and Markieff Morris, plus center Lucas Nogueira of Brazil.

 

 

Leonard doesn’t fit the traditional mold, but he’s been super-productive on one of the few undefeated teams left in college basketball. Every scout who has watched him this season has walked away impressed. A number of them claim he could be a lottery pick.

 

 

Robinson has been coming off the bench for most of the season, but his size, athleticism and toughness are obvious fits at the next level. He has moved into the starting lineup the past two games and has played really well.

 

 

Morris has been overshadowed by his brother, Marcus, but scouts really like him. Markieff is not as offensively polished, but he’s a better shot-blocker, rebounder and defender, and he is also coming along on the offensive end.

 

 

And Nogueira is a name to keep an eye on. He was a dominant rebounder and shot-blocker versus Team USA in the under-18 tournament this past summer. The scouts who have traveled to Spain to watch him play in the Spanish EBA league say he is still raw and needs to add strength, but his motor and shot-blocking ability make him a very intriguing prospect. We’ve had Robinson, Morris and Nogueira outside the Top 30 all year, but scouts say all three are first-round picks if they declare this spring.

[sammybuckeye13Participant]

– Interesting to hear from execs that Kanter is a top 10 lock. Some sites had him as high as 3 earlier in this year but now this site has him 9 and express has him 7, and he’s not gonna be a workout wonder. For me, a top 5 lock is someone who at this point in the season is universally projected to go top 5, because you never know what will happen from now until the draft.

– John Henson should not be on any big boards for this year. Maybe next year, but not now. Despite his somewhat impressive numbers and occasional highlight plays he is nowhere near ready to play in the pros. I love his length and potential like everyone else but it would be a gigantic mistake if he was to leave now; just about all of his points come from dunks and put back (or banked 9-footers) and he would get bullied by NBA bigs right now.

–  I would feel the same about Klay Thompson struggling in conference play, but Landry Fields, who isn’t particularly athletic, kept it up all year last year, averaged 22.8 ppg. My pick would be JaJuan Johnso; he’s not averaging 20-8 2 blocks in the much bigger and more physical Big 10.

– I feel strongly about Ford being wrong about both Kentucky standouts. Jones cannot possibly be overrated at this point unless he’s #1; he has the most well-rounded #’s of any freshman and he’s a 6-9 SF with very good passing ability. I don’t like Knight as a PG as much as the next guy, he’s a SG in the Crawford/Terry mold, but he’s a great talent, amazing shooter with great athleticism, plays tough D and is a very smart kid.

[sammybuckeye13Participant]

– Interesting to hear from execs that Kanter is a top 10 lock. Some sites had him as high as 3 earlier in this year but now this site has him 9 and express has him 7, and he’s not gonna be a workout wonder. For me, a top 5 lock is someone who at this point in the season is universally projected to go top 5, because you never know what will happen from now until the draft.

– John Henson should not be on any big boards for this year. Maybe next year, but not now. Despite his somewhat impressive numbers and occasional highlight plays he is nowhere near ready to play in the pros. I love his length and potential like everyone else but it would be a gigantic mistake if he was to leave now; just about all of his points come from dunks and put back (or banked 9-footers) and he would get bullied by NBA bigs right now.

–  I would feel the same about Klay Thompson struggling in conference play, but Landry Fields, who isn’t particularly athletic, kept it up all year last year, averaged 22.8 ppg. My pick would be JaJuan Johnso; he’s not averaging 20-8 2 blocks in the much bigger and more physical Big 10.

– I feel strongly about Ford being wrong about both Kentucky standouts. Jones cannot possibly be overrated at this point unless he’s #1; he has the most well-rounded #’s of any freshman and he’s a 6-9 SF with very good passing ability. I don’t like Knight as a PG as much as the next guy, he’s a SG in the Crawford/Terry mold, but he’s a great talent, amazing shooter with great athleticism, plays tough D and is a very smart kid.

[iguapops420Participant]

 Man it’d be nice if Knight had a terrible pre draft camp and along with questions about position. Would love to see him somehow fall to the gs pick LaL owns.

[iguapops420Participant]

 Man it’d be nice if Knight had a terrible pre draft camp and along with questions about position. Would love to see him somehow fall to the gs pick LaL owns.

[lalailaParticipant]

pretty shocked about Knight quesitons for first round…

 

[lalailaParticipant]

pretty shocked about Knight quesitons for first round…

 

[lalailaParticipant]

pretty shocked about Knight quesitons for first round…

 

oh sorry for double

 

[lalailaParticipant]

pretty shocked about Knight quesitons for first round…

 

oh sorry for double

 

[khaled_a_dParticipant]

 very good read,I am also surprised about Knight 

Kanter?well i am a little surprsed but not so much,I hope that the health issues about his knees isn’t true and won’t hinder his career 

As for Nogueira I read b4 that he is doing well in the EBA ,and about plaing in the EBA from DX "It will be important for him to continue improving his frame to ready himself to compete at a higher level, which he’ll inevitably be doing once he receives the Spanish passport he’s rumored to have in the works for next year. "so it seems the reason he isn’t playing with the first team isn’t b/c he isn’t good enough,but because some rules

 

[khaled_a_dParticipant]

 very good read,I am also surprised about Knight 

Kanter?well i am a little surprsed but not so much,I hope that the health issues about his knees isn’t true and won’t hinder his career 

As for Nogueira I read b4 that he is doing well in the EBA ,and about plaing in the EBA from DX "It will be important for him to continue improving his frame to ready himself to compete at a higher level, which he’ll inevitably be doing once he receives the Spanish passport he’s rumored to have in the works for next year. "so it seems the reason he isn’t playing with the first team isn’t b/c he isn’t good enough,but because some rules

 

[the lake show]

Why do people still question Fields athletic ability?..He is a very good athlete

[the lake show]

Why do people still question Fields athletic ability?..He is a very good athlete

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

"As for Nogueira I read b4 that he is doing well in the EBA ,and about plaing in the EBA from DX "It will be important for him to continue improving his frame to ready himself to compete at a higher level, which he’ll inevitably be doing once he receives the Spanish passport he’s rumored to have in the works for next year. "so it seems the reason he isn’t playing with the first team isn’t b/c he isn’t good enough,but because some rules"

http://competiciones.feb.es/estadisticas/Equipo.aspx?i=536305&med=0

First, there are different standards for good. In the ACB, a team is limited to two non-Europeans, and there is a quota of between four or six non-Spanish Europeans. Nogueira is stick figure averaging 12-10 and leading the league in blocks, but teh EBA is a low level league. Jerrell Houston was at Tennessee State a couple years ago and is doing similarly. Gio Woods was at Central Washington and using a google search, couldn’t catch on after a D-League tryout before catching on there. For Nogueira to take one of an ACB team’s two non-European slots he has to be better than he currently is, but if he gets a Spanish passport it doesn’t matter.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

"As for Nogueira I read b4 that he is doing well in the EBA ,and about plaing in the EBA from DX "It will be important for him to continue improving his frame to ready himself to compete at a higher level, which he’ll inevitably be doing once he receives the Spanish passport he’s rumored to have in the works for next year. "so it seems the reason he isn’t playing with the first team isn’t b/c he isn’t good enough,but because some rules"

http://competiciones.feb.es/estadisticas/Equipo.aspx?i=536305&med=0

First, there are different standards for good. In the ACB, a team is limited to two non-Europeans, and there is a quota of between four or six non-Spanish Europeans. Nogueira is stick figure averaging 12-10 and leading the league in blocks, but teh EBA is a low level league. Jerrell Houston was at Tennessee State a couple years ago and is doing similarly. Gio Woods was at Central Washington and using a google search, couldn’t catch on after a D-League tryout before catching on there. For Nogueira to take one of an ACB team’s two non-European slots he has to be better than he currently is, but if he gets a Spanish passport it doesn’t matter.

[the lake show]

Thats not a good measuring stick to go by. There are guess from small colleges and D2 schools who become all euro leauge guess on Top euro teams, some of which got cut from a Dleauge team, there are also some guys who started in the Dleauge and get cut from low level 1st division euro teams.

 

As far as the player, i cant really speak for him because i’ve never seen him play and i’m guessing no one else on here has either

[the lake show]

Thats not a good measuring stick to go by. There are guess from small colleges and D2 schools who become all euro leauge guess on Top euro teams, some of which got cut from a Dleauge team, there are also some guys who started in the Dleauge and get cut from low level 1st division euro teams.

 

As far as the player, i cant really speak for him because i’ve never seen him play and i’m guessing no one else on here has either

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

This isn’t a top European league though, it is the fourth division of Spanish basketball (basically a developmental league). Everyone on Nogueira’s team is between 17-20 years old. It isn’t a case where he is playing at this high level and it is just a rule that is keeping him out. He is playing at a fair level for his age, I have never said otherwise, but he is not at a level right bow of the kind of player who gets a non-European ACB roster spot, most of those guys have at least been to an NBA training camp.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

This isn’t a top European league though, it is the fourth division of Spanish basketball (basically a developmental league). Everyone on Nogueira’s team is between 17-20 years old. It isn’t a case where he is playing at this high level and it is just a rule that is keeping him out. He is playing at a fair level for his age, I have never said otherwise, but he is not at a level right bow of the kind of player who gets a non-European ACB roster spot, most of those guys have at least been to an NBA training camp.

[the lake show]

I can’t really say i have never seen him play. there has been guys in low level leauge’s who have come to the NBA and have done well. But since i havn’t seen him play ( not even a highlight tape) i can’t speak on how good or bad he is or if he is ready or not, ill have to check and see what NBA scouts are saying about him and go from there untill i actually watch him play. Im a believer in watching someone play before making a decision about them wheather its euro, D1,D2,Juco,or playground

[the lake show]

I can’t really say i have never seen him play. there has been guys in low level leauge’s who have come to the NBA and have done well. But since i havn’t seen him play ( not even a highlight tape) i can’t speak on how good or bad he is or if he is ready or not, ill have to check and see what NBA scouts are saying about him and go from there untill i actually watch him play. Im a believer in watching someone play before making a decision about them wheather its euro, D1,D2,Juco,or playground

[JNixonParticipant]

"I can’t really say i have never seen him play."

I think he’s the guy that played the US’s U-17 or 18 team. He’s a skinny 7’0 guy. He reminded me ALOT of Hassan Whiteside. If this is the right guy.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

[JNixonParticipant]

"I can’t really say i have never seen him play."

I think he’s the guy that played the US’s U-17 or 18 team. He’s a skinny 7’0 guy. He reminded me ALOT of Hassan Whiteside. If this is the right guy.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

[JNixonParticipant]

Yeah that’s him, I remember the hair

[JNixonParticipant]

Yeah that’s him, I remember the hair

[the lake show]

So he’s 17 and plays like a 20year old whiteside?…hmmm not bad

[the lake show]

So he’s 17 and plays like a 20year old whiteside?…hmmm not bad

[JNixonParticipant]

Take that however you want to lol…

[JNixonParticipant]

Take that however you want to lol…

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

I tend to always have concerns about young 7-footers with the very immature bodies who have great success at levels where their skills and physical strength are not tested, and he is no different. It will in the NBA, and I have to wonder whether there would be teams that would take him in the first round with the intention of bringing him over next year. I could understand a situation where he someone would draft him and let him develop in Spain for a few years, but the physical concerns are the same as with Whiteside who as I predicted was nowhere near ready to get on an NBA floor (oh and did I get crushed for saying that comparing him to a young Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Patrick Ewing was absurd). He has been with the Reno Bighorns for the past month and isn’t exactly setting the D-League on fire. The game moves quicker, everyone is bigger and stronger, and the lack of skills makes it easy for them to get exposed.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

I tend to always have concerns about young 7-footers with the very immature bodies who have great success at levels where their skills and physical strength are not tested, and he is no different. It will in the NBA, and I have to wonder whether there would be teams that would take him in the first round with the intention of bringing him over next year. I could understand a situation where he someone would draft him and let him develop in Spain for a few years, but the physical concerns are the same as with Whiteside who as I predicted was nowhere near ready to get on an NBA floor (oh and did I get crushed for saying that comparing him to a young Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Patrick Ewing was absurd). He has been with the Reno Bighorns for the past month and isn’t exactly setting the D-League on fire. The game moves quicker, everyone is bigger and stronger, and the lack of skills makes it easy for them to get exposed.

[the lake show]

Take him and stash him in europe for a couple of seasons

[the lake show]

Take him and stash him in europe for a couple of seasons

[the lake show]

If a kid has the ability of whiteside except he is 17 then that cant be a bad thing.

[the lake show]

If a kid has the ability of whiteside except he is 17 then that cant be a bad thing.

[JNixonParticipant]

It’s not necessarily good either. Whiteside isn’t doing anything very good right now. Whiteside is a "young 21" anyway. He just started playing C about 3 years ago. He’s basically at the same stage as Nogueira.

[JNixonParticipant]

It’s not necessarily good either. Whiteside isn’t doing anything very good right now. Whiteside is a "young 21" anyway. He just started playing C about 3 years ago. He’s basically at the same stage as Nogueira.

[the lake show]

potentially in  4 years ( when he is 21) he should be at his skill level and with more basketball experience since he has played longer than whiteside. Sounds liek a good investment, but not one that you expect to pay dividens right away like a tigo splitter

[the lake show]

potentially in  4 years ( when he is 21) he should be at his skill level and with more basketball experience since he has played longer than whiteside. Sounds liek a good investment, but not one that you expect to pay dividens right away like a tigo splitter

[khaled_a_dParticipant]

 I wasn’t saying good like he is the next big thing,but he looks like a guy that you can draft in the 1st round while let him develop his game overseas,he has the physical tools,he is playing in the youth stage and I realize that EBA is actually a youth league but isn’t he an 18 years old ?so playing at this level isn’t bad thing at this stage of his career.if there is a lockout I think he(with most international prospects)declaring for the draft while developing there game overseas until there teams feel they are ready

 

[khaled_a_dParticipant]

 I wasn’t saying good like he is the next big thing,but he looks like a guy that you can draft in the 1st round while let him develop his game overseas,he has the physical tools,he is playing in the youth stage and I realize that EBA is actually a youth league but isn’t he an 18 years old ?so playing at this level isn’t bad thing at this stage of his career.if there is a lockout I think he(with most international prospects)declaring for the draft while developing there game overseas until there teams feel they are ready

 

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