Draft Prospects and Age
I generally understand why GMs go through the draft process the way that they do, but the emphasis that they put on a player's age just seems silly to me.
For example, people say that MCW has to go to the draft this year, because if he doesn't, he won't play in the NBA until he's like 23 years old, and teams won't want to draft him at that age. I'll try to explain why that seems dumb to me.
Using this example, if MCW goes to the draft when he's 23, one of two things will happen.
1. He'll be a bust and he'll be off your team by the time he's 25.
2. He'll be great and he'll have a 10-15 year career in the NBA.
Is him being off your team by the time he's 23 instead of 25 that big of a difference? Or, by the off chance that a team keeps their player for the entirety of their career, is having a great player for 10-15 years that much worse than having a great player for 12-17 years?
I get the argument that if they're an older prospect, they've probably already developed more physically, so it's almost like a men against boys kinda thing, but overall, I feel like age is one of the most overrated parts of the draft process. If they're good enough, they should be a high draft pick regardless of their age.
Age in draft is overrated indeed ,but it can't be ignored either
the last 2 players I remember being picked really high who was around 23 are Wesley Johnson&Ekpe Udoh ,both ware busts
and both were taken b4 many better & younger player
That said many draft steals late in the draft are from older players ,Like Josh Howard&Taj Gibson
Age only matters because scouts think about potential in players. Most teams see a guy who comes in the league at a later age as a finished product and that's there's not much room to grow for that player. That's why a lot of teams will pack a freshman with a lot of potential over a seasoned 5th year senior who produces well.
It's a Sign of the Times...Back in the day,the average of a nba rookie was 22 or 23 years old.....If most players are 23 it's believe they dont have much upside or have reached their peak.....
But Believe me, if a franchise caliber player was 25 and available, teams will draft him..
1.The importance of age in the draft is more about moulding a player to the pro game than the extra years he may or may not be in the league.
2.Being old for your college class isn't about potential years in the league. It's about the reasons you took two extra years in college/highschool.
In the case of MCW, the scouts concern is that because he is older than the average sophomore, his ability to develop his body may be limited, which could potentially limit his overall ability at the next level
Age is overrated. Correct. But it that doesn't mean it should be neglected as a determining factor for GMs....
If a 23-24 year old is having a great year on the collegiate level. You should give him credit, but then turn to the video tape.
How is he getting his points? If he's sharp shooting from all around the arc, then there is no issue. But if he's bulling his way to the hoop, and you see a teenager guarding him on the tape.... then that's a concern.
But in general you are right, you can come into the league as a 25 year old and still develop as a basketball player.
i have also always thought about the age factor. it is one thing the league has not considered. the peak level of play or the true prime of a player is averaged between the ages of twenty eight and thirty two years of age and then take a dip fast once they hit the age where the skill decline. that isn't always the case but the majority of players are out of the league once they pass twenty five because they didn't fit some mold or role that was hoped for or their contract didn't fit. the nba is getting the best players and still have players that play a long time. they are doing things right but are still missing out on some players that never play in the league in their prime. most people consider the number thirty the red flag age where a player is getting old and twenty five about the age of a player's time to get that big long term deal. any age under twenty five is the upside and potential label. really it is about the age when the player has just figured out how to use all of his skills and put them together. it still takes a while to master those skills. from the nba perspective though, if the player is developed by the nba at an early age, the more nba skills can potentially be developed into the player.