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Raef LaFrentz 11 years, 11 months ago.
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- Posted on: Wed, 05/30/2012 - 2:11pm #39596
- Posted on: Wed, 05/30/2012 - 3:08pm #675276
Raef LaFrentzParticipantHe says Beal "may be the better athlete" when compared to Ross?
Puh-leez.
0 - Posted on: Wed, 05/30/2012 - 3:10pm #675270
NbanflguyParticipantFor the last nine NBA drafts I have covered for ESPN and ESPN Radio, I have put together my own big board. It’s just a list of players, not based upon draft needs, but rather upon my own evaluations, formed with the help of several NBA executives and college coaches. It’s not a reflection of where I necessarily think these players will be drafted, but rather where I would draft them if given the choice, after having seen them play on the college level.
Chad Ford Top 100
Looking for more NBA draft coverage? Check out NBA draft guru Chad Ford’s Top 100 prospects, updated weekly on ESPN Insider.
There are three factors I try to keep in mind when I put together my rankings in terms of how players’ college careers can affect their draft stocks:
1. Some players are, in my opinion, overvalued by NBA teams because they come from advantageous college situations, like Derrick Williams was last year and Joe Alexander in 2008.
2. Some players are undervalued because they were on college teams that struggled (poor guard play, bad chemistry, etc.) or because they were playing out of position in college.
3. Even more are hard to peg because they are so young and so early in their development that ultimately it is their work ethic that will truly determine their NBA future.
Here’s my current ranking of this year’s NBA draft prospects. If you’re interested in seeing how my list has evolved throughout the season, check out my previous editions from December and February.
1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky Wildcats
Think Tyson Chandler on defense, with some Tim Duncan on offense. With great timing on blocking shots, solid ball-handling on the perimeter and an improving jump shot, there seems to be a limitless ceiling for Davis at this point.
2. Bradley Beal, Florida Gators
Beal is a prototype 2 who wasn’t even run off of many screens in his one college season. He seemed to take a huge leap from the beginning to the end of the season in terms of his off-the-dribble game. He should translate into an NBA shooting guard right away, especially with his athleticism and range.
3. Andre Drummond, Connecticut Huskies
Drummond is a freak athlete who has a way to go to be a starting big man in the NBA. On the other hand, he has massive upside, an incredible body and great spring. There is a DeAndre Jordan quality to how poorly he has developed thus far on offense yet how physically imposing he will someday be, but if the right team takes him and he buys in, he can be better than Jordan.
4. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina Tar Heels
Smooth and steady, Barnes is not the next Kobe Bryant, but he is still a solid NBA wing for years to come. His game lacks the burst to create a lot of his own shots, but he can post, will guard some and really made strides in being a solid 3-point shooter.
5. Royce White, Iowa State Cyclones
White is similar in many ways to former New York Knick Anthony Mason. He is an undersized 4 who can handle, shoot some, rebound and score in the low post. He has been very open about his anxiety disorder, as well as his transgressions that lead to him leaving Minnesota. He is a risk, but he can also be a dominant player, one who took over at midseason after two years of rust wore off.
6. Meyers Leonard, Illinois Fighting Illini
Leonard is a freak athlete, with a perfect frame to play 15 years inside in the NBA. Leonard is Andrew Bynum-like in his goofiness, but even though he’s just a kid, his body and skill set are those of a man. He can play the high and low post, guard ball screens, shoot, and has good hands. Is he a killer? I’m not sold, frankly, but man, the potential is there.
7. Perry Jones, Baylor Bears
He dealt with a ton of hype and pressure at Baylor, where he played a lot of center and spent the rest of the time at the 4 spot. He is a 4 or a 3 in the NBA — one who had moments during college where he looked the part of a super talent.
8. Damian Lillard, Weber State Wildcats
A scoring point guard who is best off of ball screens, Lillard benefits from both the lack of great point guards in this year’s draft and the need for a scoring PG to play right away.
9. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina Tar Heels
A 7-foot running big man who can hit an 18-footer, Zeller needs to develop more than just a jump hook, but for now, he is actually ahead of the big man learning curve on offense. At a minimum, Zeller is a backup big man who can stretch his range to 22 feet.
10. Dion Waiters, Syracuse Orange
With no position per se, Waiters should have the same role in the pros as in college, where he came in and changed the tempo. He is a dynamic Dwyane Wade-type of driver who will be a streaky shooter from NBA range, but he can get to the rim and is ideal for playing the role of an off-the-bench dynamo.
11. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State Buckeyes
A lot of people, myself included, have been down on Sullinger for how he’s played against NBA length, which is a fair criticism. My guess, though, is that while he is likely much shorter than the 6-foot-9 he’s listed as (he always looked 6-7 to me), he also played out of position as a center and should continue to develop his legs, not just lose weight. While the worst-case scenario is Michael Sweetney, the best-case possibility is Elton Brand.
12. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky Wildcats
MKG is very young and everyone loves his competitive drive, but before you take him No. 2 overall, realize that he played a lot of 4 in college, has a funky jumper and probably translates into a defensive specialist who can rebound and score in transition, but not really wow anyone on offense. If he’s closer to 6-5 (instead of 6-7, his listed height at UK), which is shooting guard size, then what is he? A great kid to have on your team who will fight and scrap and become a double-digit scorer, but not an NBA All-Star, and maybe not a consistent starter.
13. Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Moultrie is a long, athletic 4 who looks the part of an NBA big. His ability to play out on the floor combined with his athletic gifts keep him in my top 15.
14. Terrence Ross, Washington Huskies
Ross is the best scoring 2 with legit size in this year’s draft. Beal should eventually get there and may be a better athlete and pure shooter, but Ross gets you buckets.
15. Thomas Robinson, Kansas Jayhawks
A monster in college, Robinson is likely a rotation guy in the NBA at worst, a starting power forward at best. He has stretched his range to 20 feet and will finish above the rim, but he doesn’t have the fluidity to be special in face-up opportunities in the league.
16. Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut Huskies
Smooth and effortless, Lamb could be a steal, or he could be a dud that teases you. He just needs to be on a team with great leadership and to change his body some.
17. Moe Harkless, St. John’s Red Storm
I’m not totally sold on taking Kidd-Gilchrist ahead of Harkless, as Harkless has the scoring skill and perimeter ability that MKG lacks. Harkless does need to continue to improve his range, but as a 3 he has size, can rebound and definitely can score.
18. Austin Rivers, Duke Blue Devils
Rivers is incredibly shifty off of ball screens and a very streaky shooter. He is likely to come off the bench and be called upon to score early in his NBA career. He can turn teammates off with some of his antics and shot selection, but he can get into the lane and has all the pro ball-screen scoring angles down pat. Rivers is not a point, but he might be a backup point, and while he doesn’t finish enough above the rim, he does have some D-Wade to his game.
19. John Henson, North Carolina Tar Heels
A crazy-long face-up 4 who still hasn’t put on the strength needed for the NBA, Henson has become a better and much more refined player over the course of his college career. He is so long he should eventually be able to guard Kevin Durant types as well as power forwards if he adds enough strength.
20. Terrence Jones, Kentucky Wildcats
Jones will have to switch positions from a face-up college 4 to an NBA 3 man, and despite his obvious talent, he is no lock to be an NBA starter. Jones’ perimeter game is based mainly upon playing as a pick-and-pop 4 with a mismatch in college, and now he will be forced to play and defend on the wing. Additionally, although he matured during his two seasons in Kentucky, it was under the heavy-handed leadership of John Calipari in college, so his newfound freedom may not be a good thing in the pros. Jones is a very strong left-handed player who needs to really put time into developing a consistent jumper and buy into being a lockdown defender/rebounder if he wants to be more than an end-of-rotation guy in the NBA.
21. Fab Melo, Syracuse Orange
Melo made a magical improvement jump from Year 1 to Year 2, and he continues to improve his body. Melo is huge, he can shoot from 15, he can catch and is a basket protector.
22. Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Nicholson is super bright, skilled as a shooter and passer. He has tremendous feet and gigantic hands, but he is not really a great athlete in transition and his game has some small forward to it. Nicholson is a good shot-blocker who probably is best with a winning team where he can just fit in.
23. Jared Cunningham, Oregon State Beavers
Cunningham is an athletic guard few in the country have seen. He is a consistent jump shot away from being a lottery pick.
24. Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt Commodores
An amazing athlete who has worked to become a solid shooter from deep college range, Taylor has the reputation of an athlete who plays basketball, not a basketball player who is an athlete. He can finish above the rim, is an improved shooter and should play for a long time.
25. Scott Machado, Iona Gaels
Machado is an athletic point guard who can really create in transition or off of penetration. He changes the tempo of the game quite quickly and is a better shooter and athlete than Kendall Marshall, a better shooter than Tony Wroten and far more consistent a ball handler than Marquis Teague.
26. Kendall Marshall, North Carolina Tar Heels
A big point guard with superior vision, Marshall struggles to score and guard, and he needs to dramatically improve his body at the next level. Jay Williams has likened him to Andre Miller, but for Marshall to get to that level he’ll need to score more and add a post-up game. Still, there are some similarities.
27. Darius Miller, Kentucky Wildcats
Miller is a 6-8 ego-free winner who can take and make big shots. Even though he doesn’t have the scorer’s mentality that others do, he has the skill to play in the league as a backup at the 1, 2 or 3.
28. Quincy Miller, Baylor Bears
Miller has range, length and looks the part of an NBA 3, but doesn’t always play hard, isn’t a good man-to-man defender and simply has some holes in his game. He is a solid talent who could be an NBA starter if he buys in.
29. Tony Wroten Jr., Washington Huskies
Wroten is an athletic point guard who can’t shoot but has some of what it takes to be a starter in the NBA. When you really watch Wroten, whom no one guarded at Washington due to his poor shooting, you think he can use his athleticism and vision to be a good lead guard, but his team struggled to move the ball with him in the game, he sporadically defends and, although he can score at the rim, his free throw shooting is so poor that it limits his end-of-game effectiveness. If he sits behind a veteran point guard, buys in, works tirelessly on his jumper and uses his athletic gifts to defend, he could be a steal.
30. Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas Jayhawks
Taylor is an athletic scoring point guard who can guard and makes an ideal backup in the league.
Notes
• Kansas fans can save their hate mail for my evaluation of Robinson, as I wrote similar things about Tyler Hansbrough when he came out. Robinson was a great (not just good, but great) college player, but the NBA game turns him into a 4, so he is likely a starter on a bad team and a rotation guy on a good team.
• Marshall is intriguing because of his size and passing, but his inability to defend and score is problematic, especially in a backup role in which point guards are expected to pick up full court, and you mainly guard converted combo guards.
• White has the body and game to be a top-10 pick, but no one in the NBA is blind to his past, and White himself has been very open about his fight with an anxiety disorder. He was well-liked by teammates and coaches at Iowa State, but he may go in the mid-first round as much because of a fear over how he will react to the NBA lifestyle.
• Rivers has people in the NBA who love his toughness and ability to score, and others who have questions about his attitude. I feel like his game fits the NBA better than it did college, but the ball sticks in his hand so much that he’d better improve as a shooter or teammates will freeze him out.
• Barnes reminds me of Greg Monroe coming out a few years ago in that people had such heavy expectations for him going in that they failed to realize how much skill he has and how well he will consistently do in the NBA. Barnes is not a star, but he is a solid wing.
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