[shipargosParticipant]

 Hello guys,

I have noticed that there are some things in common to busts, and some things in common to succesful to star players before the draft day, and some combinations of Physcical-skill-intagibles to more or less predict if someone would be a Bust or a player that will sitck on the league.

Playing a GM i will stick to these rules porduct of draft history observation.

*Busts are considered depending on draft position. 

1. Bust factors convos

1.1 Great size and lenght, good athleticism, questionable BKB IQ, skillset and experience, foreign player (lottery bust factor)

Examples: Darko, Yi, Sene (  umproven physical specimens)

Problems: Mental toughness, Low BKB IQ, lack of assertiveness.

This draft example: Bismack Biyombo, altough not too accurate since he played some in the ACB (second best league in the world, but share some of thsi traits)

1.2 Tremendous athleticism, good size for the position, apparently lack of BKB IQ. American Players.

Examples: Gerald Green, Tyrus Thomas, Thabeet, Marvin Williams to name a few.

Greald even had a good jumper, he is just a BKB stupid.

Once again low BKB IQ lead to failure.

Succes stories: D.Derozan.

This Years draft: J.Tyler, Josh Selby but i believe they will eventually flourish with the right coaching staffs. ( and they wont be busts taken in the late first)

1.3 Poor Athleticism, Good size, proven college players:

Examples: Adam Morrison

This year: M.Thompson. ( altough in dont believe he will be a bust if he is drafted out of the lottery and is a bit more mobile than Morrison and more skilled)

Succes stories: Tyler Hansborough, but he is a not that bad athlete and is a proven hard worker.

JJ Reddick (another hard worker)

Both have excellent mental toughness.

 

2.Succesful lottery picks convo characteristics.

-Good athleticism, excellent IQ and skillsets and experience (not supreme athletes)= Durant, Brandon Roy; Chris paul, DWill, S.Curry.

This year: Irving, Kanter (skilled but not so experimented) and J.Fredette (fast and agile but not so explosive).

-Good bkb IQ (not excellent), moderate skillset and Excellent athletes (including strenght).

D.Howard, Westbrook, L.Aldrige (for his size)

This Year: Derrick Williams, (speed+ power) K.Walker (speed, Jump), Knight ( based on speed) Leonard, Burks.

– The well rounded but not great and NBA ready guys:

Emeka Okafor

this year: The Morris Twins

-the obvious total packges, guys that have little to prove: ( must go top 3)

Supreme athletes, good to excellent IQ, Advanced Skillsets and NBA bodies: 

Wade, Lebron, Griffin,  etc.

 

Spurs intelligent factor:

Late first rounders or second rounder succes traits: Guards=high speed, "Moderate" skills

good scouting.

Parker, Ginobily

Bigs: Strenght, mobility. 

Blair.

Another team greates hits ( i will forget someone for sure): Millsap, C. Landry, Leon Powe, Monta Ellis( one of the best) and Gortat (good starting Big) and some other good guys.

 

Conclusion: Good overall skill level is king when drafting players in the lottery, but need at least average or slighly below average athleticism or size.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[esperanzafleet69Participant]

emeka okafor not nba ready?? he was probably the most nba ready of that class…

last i checked, most of the time when tyrus thomas is given minutes (over 30) in charlotte he got a 20-10 game…

and its not like yi isnt a very servicable player today.. nobody was expecting him to be amazing..

 

not to mention you contradict yourself so many times…

usually the signs of a bust are poor work ethic or bad health

[JoeWolf1]

 Those aren’t things that are exclusive to busts.  You yourself gave successful players with those same traits you associated with busts. I can see you put some time into this evaluation, but they are just groupings of different types of prospects. 

 

[ProudGrandpaParticipant]

One of the guys you mentioned has an 11.7 PPG and 5.3 RPG over 430 career games.  You call that a bust?

[shipargosParticipant]

 Marvin is not a bad player, but is a Atlanta is a draft failure, he shouldnt be taken #2

A bust is not always a bad player, a bust is someone that got extremely high expectations and never fullfiled them.

Marvin is a bust for a #2 pick, leaving Paul, DWill, Felton, Bynum, David Lee, Monta, Granger…

 

[shipargosParticipant]

 I thougnt i separed the bad things of the good ones..

2.Succesful lottery picks convo characteristics.  from here down these are the good characteristics to look for top prospects.

Esperanza… i never write Okafor not being NBA ready

– The well rounded, but not great, and NBA ready guys: (maybe putting the comas help)

Emeka Okafor

this year: The Morris Twins

This means, ( with my english limitations) that the morris twins resemble the NBA ready guys, that will likely stick for a while in the league like Okafor in this draft.

Sorry all for this disturbance, maybe i wont post anymore in this site, it appears anyone is trashed down to eat dust when they give a honest but maybe not so good comment.

[bigdaddybluesmanParticipant]

You bring up some good points but it’s an incomplete and contradicting assessment.

The one unmeasurable thing is heart. But BB IQ is an important issue and maybe the most important. You don’t have to be smart in terms of  IQ to be smart in terms of BB IQ. MJ is no genius but his BB IQ and heart were off the charts, unmeasurable.

[ProudGrandpaParticipant]

Marvin Williams is the guy whose stats I gave.  While not an elite player like in his college days, he could start for most any team in the NBA.

[providencefriars1Participant]

This makes no sense you group Gerald Green with Tyrus Thomas and Marvin Williams. A bust with two starter caliber players. I know Thabeet hasnt been great so far and is obviously not worth the second pick but it is a little early to totally write him off.

[shipargosParticipant]

 Providence, ok, lets not call them busts, just players that were drafted extremely high.

Green is a full bust, not even in the league, maybe the years in russia can do good for him.

[providencefriars1Participant]

I agree on green, hes done. I remember before that draft he was rumored as a possible top 3 guy, imagine if someone passed on CP3 and Deron  for Gerald Green.

[aamir543Participant]

@shipargos, the points you are making are not that bad, but your writing is incredibly difficult to read. I mean that in the most respectful way possible. A simple soution is to just type it on Microsoft Word, do the grammer and spell check(spelling doesn’t really matter, its mostly the grammer) and then copy and paste it here.  

[Chilbert arenasParticipant]

So Hasheem Thabeet is American because he played at UConn for three years…?

[Mr.BigShotParticipant]

Thabbet isn’t American

[shipargosParticipant]

 Tanzania, but he has American BKB experience

[Author]

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