[TruettParticipant]

 I have no real love for the Rockets… Honestly, I think their GM fancies himself a "deal-maker" when all he really does is tread water. However, I am really starting to like their summer league team. It looks like they have five/six players who deserve to be on NBA rosters. If they keep this team together they could be the next "Baby Bulls" of the league. Do you think they should still try to get Dwight? or sell off their few remaining vets (Martin, and Dalembert are both expirings) at the deadline and let the young players experience their own growing pains for a higher lottery pick (prob 7-12 range)? Please no BS about "following the thunder model" b/c that was obviously not their intent..

[NYK2010Participant]

I agree with you Houston’s GM just capitalized on the luxury tax and outside of that hasn’t done much in the draft really. 

They can try to get Dwight but its gonna take more than signing Lin and Asik to convince him to sign long term in Houston. If he’s after money he would’ve signed with Orlando.

The Lakers have an advantage with Kobe n Nash they are more ready for win a title than any other team thats after him even the Nets.  Also they have the rest of the offseason to go after him while the Nets will have to wait till January.  Unless Howard says the Nets are the only team he wants to play for I say he the Lakers get him before September.

[CodySLCParticipant]

They have some nice young talent. But Dalembert is on the Bucks.

[TEQU1LAParticipant]

 Forget the Baby Bulls more like the Clips young guns circa 2001. The good old times when D.Miles and Q.Rich bump their forehead after a basket. Anyway, back to the subject I really like Motiejunas the guy looks like the real deal I bet the Wolves are kicking themselves now and Lamb’s a boss, kid will be a top 5 SG in a few yrs from now. Also, Jones is looking solid as well seems to be a good piece to a puzzle. I ain’t no Rox fan but their young guns look good no reason to give them away for a 1 yr rental of DH12.

 

[sheltwon3Participant]

Houston has a lot of young talent and if some of it pans out in the next 2 years, they may have a chance to go further in the playoffs once the West top team disband or get too old to defend their positions.  Houston to me is in a better position long term than the Knicks.  Knicks don’t have a better team than Miami right now and I have no clue  how they get better.  Also when Lin play well in Houston and Knicks are slight above average Knicks fans will turn away from their team and now with Brooklyn they have another option.  The tale of two owners.  One will do what it takes the other has not clue.  Brooklyn has a chance next year to be better than the Knicks and if they do it next year, I think a lot of fans will leave the Knicks for Brooklyn.

[rhamnlacsonParticipant]

 if dwight somehow agrees that he would sign into a long term deal after his current contract is expired

[rhamnlacsonParticipant]

 rather invest on the young guys that i have right now if i were the rockets gm

this would be thier future franchise big 3 and maybe able to do what okc has did in a couple of years from now if they stick to what they have right now

the rockets "Baby Big 3"

jeremy lin

jeremy lamb

donatas motiejunas

[B-ball fanParticipant]

 The Rockets have a ton of young guys, but I expect them to pull off a major trade for a veteran sometime.  They have four rookies this year, two second year players, and three third year players.  They could add four more rookies next year.  They can’t play all those guys, so building around their young guys while adding a high level all-star talent would be effective. 

[machu46Participant]

For a summer league team, they’re stacked.  But I still have serious questions about Terrence Jones ever being a difference maker in the NBA.  I really love Lamb and Motiejunas though.

[mj23mj23besteverParticipant]

 id keep this young group together with lin lamb white jones patterson actually he could go motie parsons and asik and either just let martins contract come off the books at the end of the year and try and entice a big name fa too join these youngsters

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I think they should keep Kevin Martin as a shooter/scorer. If they do deal him they should do it for a quality young player, or a combination of expiring contracts and a draft pick.

I just feel bad for Presti and the Thunder. Who knows what kind of offer sheets he will throw at Harden and Ibaka? lol

Andrew Bynum could be the best fit though. Legit center, even bigger and taller than Dwight Howard, younger, and better on offense.

It looks like the Rockets are coming together. I think if they wait out the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, and even the Heat, as well as try to break up the OKC core then they will be looking good.

[jmarg25Participant]

Despite Machado being undrafted, I think he should be their backup PG, not Courtney Fortson. He has made some pretty passes in these couple of SL games.

 

[mj23mj23besteverParticipant]

 i agree with ya jmarg25 machado has prolly earned the back up pg spot looks like hes gonna b undrafted steal

[jiggawhatParticipant]

 It would be retarded to trade away all these prospects for Dwight Howard

I would have liked to seen Royce White run the offense more, but with Lin and Machado that doesn’t seem likely

[thparadoxParticipant]

 "Please no BS about "following the thunder model" b/c that was obviously not their intent.."

On what basis do you say that? Seems like Dwight is plan A, and Thunder model is plan B.

 

[TruettParticipant]

That was dumb, he is on the Bucks.

@theparadox: 1st let me express my bias, I hate the term "Following the Thunder model." Basically, it implies success in a very risky venture, which the team only has to undertake because they messed up so badly in the past. they should really call it "sucking in the hopes that we nail a buch of hight draft picks and then can take advantage of the rookie wage scale" Drafting superstars is very risky… sometimes it is impossible. There is not always superstar talent available. The odds of being able to nail 3-5 draft picks in a row are super low and may be impossible because the talent is just not there..I think selling that to your fans and asking them to pay full price for tickets is unfair and insincere. 

That said… ever since I can remember Morey has been trying to get a superstar big man to the Rockets. 1st it was Bosh, then Bynum, Gasol, and now Howard. I might have even forgotten some FA stuff there too. I conceed that in order to make a deal for a superstar you need a bunch of young talent, and that Morey has also been accumulating that via the draft over the years (especially this one). However, you can’t just claim that failure in your stated goal means you were a success in your unstated goal. For example, lets say that we are playing baseball and I say I am going to hit a home run next pitch, but instead I hit a foul ball. Would you believe me if I then said that I was trying to get the pitchers pitch count up? 

[thparadoxParticipant]

True, the odds of having 3 lottery picks in a row pan out the way they have for the Thunder is low. But that doesn’t make the strategy poor. (even if they missed on either Westbrook or Harden… they’d still have a very good team to build around.)

I think if you want a superstar, you’re giving yourself the best probabilities to land one by tanking.

Let’s, hypothetically, say there was a 20% of getting a superstar by tanking (Durant, Rose, etc)…. well, then tank for 3 years and you’ve have 20% probability in each of those years. Plus, maybe there’s a 30% chance you end up with a star… so you probably end up with at least 1 superstar or maybe 2 stars, with a lower probability that you end up with a Thunder type team. Seems like a pretty good strategy to me.

And given Morey’s multiple failed attempts to land a superstar by other  means, it’s a decent option.

Also, you increase your odds substantially when you have a smart GM like Morey instead of a garbage GM who drafts Thabeet or Marvin Williams or Johnny Flynn.

[thparadoxParticipant]

Also, the analogy you make here is not very reflective of the situation.

Morey is accumulating assets to sell to a rebuilding team. Right?

Well if a rebuilding team doesn’t want to take on those assets for Howard… what does Morey do? He rebuilds his own team, with those assets.

So I think it’s pretty clear how stockpiling talent and draft picks is good for the Rockets in either scenario.

[B-ball fanParticipant]

 Some of you guys are overreacting to the summer league.  They aren’t going to win a championship just with the guys on the team now.  I’m sorry, but "the Thunder model" doesn’t work unless you are really lucky.  If they could get Dwight Howard, I’m sure they wouldn’t mind trading some of their five young pfs.  Maybe they will get a star in next year’s draft and build like the Thunder, but that isn’t likely.  Getting young talent is important not just to succeed, but to trade for some veteran talent that could actually make them a contender, whether now or down the road. 

[mj23mj23besteverParticipant]

 i could c royce playing that pt f role some off the bench for the rockets 

[bobforteParticipant]

 true it is just summer league.  However when you watch these games you can see what translates and if they can play or not.  Most of these rockets guys can really play, doesn’t matter its only summer league.  Sure, it won’t be the exact same when the real games start but these guys will still be productive.  These guys if they wait a couple years in my opinion would just need a top 2 center from next years draft and a couple years down the road they would be contenders with other teams getting older and at that time will start the rebuilding process

[Sewok15Participant]

It looks like they have a great young core. They just added Lin at the point to go with Lamb White Jones and Monta. I don’t know why they offered Asik so much money. If they still would try to get in on the Howard deal they would have a backup center making 8 million a season.

[GoJOSH HUESTISParticipant]

They have a very good young core based on summer league but remember they are still young. With this core they are not close to a playoff team and will be in rebuilding mode. I like how people continue to sleep on t.jones even though he’s a good PF height and size and more athletic while being able to bring the ball up court. He is a better player as well as prospect than PJ3 with PJ3 only being more athletic and softer

[Sewok15Participant]

I think Perry has a more consistent mid-range game but overall Jones is the better player right now. A couple years down the road if Perry were as aggressive as Jones attacking the basket he could be a beast.

[TruettParticipant]

Just so you know… granting the best possible odds from your absurdly generous and speculative formulation… the odds of success are 1.8% in orther words it works one out of fifty times. I think you should look at those figures and evaluate your position because you dont get fifty bites at the apple…especially when you consider that your formula exists in a vacuum without the pressures of ownership to win, difficulties in finding a coach, and building chemistry. Not to mention freak injuries which can derail the whole process.

However, thats not my point. You seem to be making arguments in defense of tanking (fine, I don’t care, not really relevant) and in defense of "the thunder model" (really not the point of the statement you took question with), which is sorta like looking for provocation. However, the part that irks me is that you failed to understand (and continue to fail) what I assumed was a very clear statement, even when I supported it with an apt metaphor. Instead you assume that I am putting down the Rockets when I made the post to congratulate them. 

All I was saying is that if you say that you are going to go out and do A and you fail at that, but in failing you achieve B which is also good…DONT SAY THAT B WAS YOUR GOAL ALL ALONG…because no one is going to believe you and if you do believe someone who says that to you, then you are a clown.

[thparadoxParticipant]

Where is the 1.8% number coming from? Genuinely interested to know.

I was trying to provoke an intelligent conversation. 

I understand what you are saying. I disagree. If that irks you, then it irks you. There is a difference between going in with Plan A and Plan A-1, versus going in with Plan A, failing, and then bullshitting. I’m arguing for the former, you’re arguing for the latter. You haven’t given any support for why a rebuilding plan would be bullshit.

I think you underestimate the odds of building a contender through tanking. And you think I overestimate them. Fine.

[TruettParticipant]

If something has an x probability of happening some subsequent event has a y probability of happening the odds of both of them happening is x * y. you can represent 30% as the number 0.3. By your standards the odds of getting a superstar is 20 percent and a star is 30 percent. By your own admission success would be drafting 1 star and two super stars or 2 stars and 1 superstar. Therefore, the odds of drafting a superstar and two stars is 0.2 * 0.3 * 0.3 which equals 0.018. if you convert that to a percentage it equals 1.8%. Conversly, two superstars and one star would be 1.2% by this method.

I haven’t said that a rebuilding project would be BS.. I think if you read my original post you will see how I am leaning towards supporting that…Def over a Howard rental.. Personally, I am not a rocket fan so I dont really care… All I am saying is that I didn’t want to hear any one calling Darryl Morey a genius because he is following the Thunder Model. I think that now it is a good thing to START following that and really work on developing their young talent, but they were given this chance because they messed up in what they set out to do. 

Thats all I am saying. I am not saying that the rockets are effed or going in the wrong way. I think you are being a bit of a homer if you refuse to admit that your GM messed up even though your team may be better off long term for it.

[thparadoxParticipant]

Middle school math starts from reading the question. I said 1 superstar OR 2 stars. Not 1 superstar AND 2 stars. Huge difference.

I’m not a Rockets fan. I just don’t think people understand what Morey is doing. You seem to understand better than others.

You still haven’t made a case. How do you know that Morey didn’t say… "I’m going to do all these trades. And either we’ll get Howard, or we’ll be in a perfect spot to rebuild."

The GM didn’t mess up if this is still according to his plan. What evidence do you have that this isn’t part of Morey’s plan? How do you know he’s not 95% as happy to rebuild, as he is to get Howard?

 

[TruettParticipant]

then you are just talking about tanking… and thats not the thunder model. Regardless of whether or not you said and/or, the Thunder model is; get a high draft pick, clear cap space, and suck while your young players develop so you can get more high draft picks. You know? they drafted Durant, then Westbrook, then Harden and Ibaka. thats nailing 4 draft picks in a row. Look at the bobcats, they are trying to do the same thing, but they whiffed twice last year and missed out on anthony Davis. Now they are a glorified D league team.

Listen, If you are going to play the, "how do you know that he didn’t do something that there is no evidence to support game" then there I have no response. I am not an insider, I was not there. Obviously everything I am saying is my own opinion. However, canyou prove to me that there are not a thousand blue fairies dancing in the room you are in right now? No, because no one has ever seen a fairy, but we cannot conclusively prove that they dont exist. We just assume that they don’t because there is no evidence outside of our own immagenations support their existence. You make assumptions off of the evidence available to you and the evidence says to me that the rockets got lucky that the missed out on dwight.

Also, I am not the person negging you.. someone else is reading this thread and they do not agree with what you are saying either.

[thparadoxParticipant]

The Thunder model most definitely includes tanking. How else do you get a 2nd, 4th and 3rd pick in consecutive drafts.

The Bobcats missed on Davis, so what. They’ll be terrible this year too and get another high pick to try and get their "Durant". Let’s say they get Shabazz Mahammad and he turns into a superstar. Well, then they have MKG already their to pair with him. Not the worst situation to be in.

You’re making it sound impossible that Morey has had a plan to rebuild all along. Morey’s actions are 100% in line with rebuilding. I’m asking you to present an argument… not hard evidence, just reasoning. e.g. Jeremy Lin is not a rebuilding piece because of X, Y and Z. or… clearly the Asik offer only makes sense in the context of Howard, so he can’t be rebuilding.

Otherwise, you’re standing on weak ground.

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