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- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:19am #62886
valentineAll the attention is on Ben Simmons and Buddy Hield, but Poeltl is playing even better.
Poeltl is averaging 18 ppg, but he’s scored 20 or more in 7 of the last 9 (conference) games. Expect that scoring average to rise to 20-ish by the end of the year, and expect his FGAs/G to rise above 10.
While Hield is averaging 7 more points per game than Poeltl, Poeltl’s defense is night and day better than Hield’s, and I don’t think anybody would argue differently. Poeltl is probably the last defender to hold Jahlil Okafor to 6 points in a game.
Then Poeltl turns around and DOUBLES his scoring average, and now he is cranking it up yet another notch in conference play.
You heard it here first, but Poeltl is rapidly emerging as a two-way dominant player, and the best college player in the country. He might even be the best draft prospect, if you really stop and think about the trajectory of his offensive development compared to the other top prospects.
Poeltl has doubled not only his scoring, but also his assist rate.
And here’s what’s the crazyist thing:
You were about to say that Hield is also a more effecient scorer, right? Wrong!!!
From effective FG% to True FG% to PER, Poeltl matches or surpasses Hield’s scoring efficiency.
PER
JP 33.4
Ben S 29.7
BH 29.3
True Shooting %
JP 68.3%
BH 67.2
BS 60.2
Effective FG%
JP 66.8
BH 63.0
BS 56.6
Poeltl scores more per 100 possessions than Simmons
BH 40.8
JP 35.9
BS 30.6
Win Share per 48
JP .278
BH .249
BS .221
The hype trains already left the station, and Poeltl might not have a chance at Naismith/POY, but there’s a very good chance that he’ll end up deserving to win none-the-less.
And a two-way dominant center is a lot harder to pass on than just a defensive center with limited upside, as Poeltl was written off as.
You can continue listening to the consensus, but I’m telling you he’s turning into a better post scorer than Porzingis, Towns, and Myles Turner.
By this time next year, we might even be talking about Poeltl in the same overall category as those studs.
And if Poeltl gets a 3 point shot…
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:30am #1044756
CasualCelt"Poeltl has pulled off one of the hardest transitions in the sport: maintaining his efficiency even after a dramatic spike in usage. Poeltl shot 68.1 percent from the field as a freshman, but he played only 56.4 percent of Utah’s available minutes. That number has jumped to 73.5 this season, with his usage rate rising from 21.2 to 26.2. Poeltl’s production hasn’t dropped off, and it’s made him arguably the biggest matchup problem in America as one of the few true centers with NBA size left in the college game."
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:30am #1044620
CasualCelt"Poeltl has pulled off one of the hardest transitions in the sport: maintaining his efficiency even after a dramatic spike in usage. Poeltl shot 68.1 percent from the field as a freshman, but he played only 56.4 percent of Utah’s available minutes. That number has jumped to 73.5 this season, with his usage rate rising from 21.2 to 26.2. Poeltl’s production hasn’t dropped off, and it’s made him arguably the biggest matchup problem in America as one of the few true centers with NBA size left in the college game."
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:03am #1044758
KingslayerParticipanti’ve been meaning to post about Poeltl’s intrigue as a prospect for weeks now and just haven’t gotten around to it. IMO he is the #3 prospect in this draft, and showing all the talent necessary to be a 2-way star in the NBA.
He is the whole package defensively. He’s not a prolific shot blocker, but is still a very good rim protector. He has top notch fundamentals contesting shots at the rim, whether they be on post-ups or drives from the perimeter. He gets vertical and uses his solid length (7’1" height with matching wingspan) to block or alter shots without fouling. He almost always gets into a great position to contest as well, thanks to his high defensive IQ and excellent mobility for a true 7+ footer. Players his size shouldn’t be able to move like he does. We’re all spoiled by seeing Zinger move like a gazelle at 7’3", but Poeltl is tremendously mobile in his own right. He uses it to defend the PnR very well, and shows great lateral quickness and recovery when switched onto guards. His overall combination of size, mobility, IQ and high effort make him a terrific team defender. He just plays winning basketball, no frills.
Poeltl was great defensively as a freshman too, but what’s really impressive are the strides he’s made on the offensive end in his sophomore year. He did not have any post game as a frosh, scoring (efficiently at least) off PnR dives, transition, offensive boards, and showing good hands to make catches down low. This season, he’s improved his scoring from 16 points per 40 to 25 pp40. His usage has jumped and he’s scoring with Curry-like efficiency (68% TS!). He looks far more comfortable operating in the post, and shows great touch around the rim. He has improved his A/T ratio from 0.44:1 as a freshman to 1:1 this season. He just has a really strong feel for the game, plays with a high IQ and makes the right play the majority of the time. What’s more, he went from a 44% FT shooter as a freshman to shooting 70% on 7 FTAs per game this year. That’s ridiculous. The man has clearly put in work, and this type of effort to improve is exactly what NBA teams like to see in prospects.
The rapid improvement offensively is what makes Poeltl so intriguing. He is now so solid on both ends of the court, which is very rare for a 20 year old true center. Not many of the teams picking in the high lottery need a true C, but that shouldn’t stop a lot of them from drafting him. I think he’d be the perfect option for a team like Boston if they aren’t able to move into the top 2 in the lottery. High ceiling, high floor. He’s way too underrated by fans and draft sites at this time.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:03am #1044622
KingslayerParticipanti’ve been meaning to post about Poeltl’s intrigue as a prospect for weeks now and just haven’t gotten around to it. IMO he is the #3 prospect in this draft, and showing all the talent necessary to be a 2-way star in the NBA.
He is the whole package defensively. He’s not a prolific shot blocker, but is still a very good rim protector. He has top notch fundamentals contesting shots at the rim, whether they be on post-ups or drives from the perimeter. He gets vertical and uses his solid length (7’1" height with matching wingspan) to block or alter shots without fouling. He almost always gets into a great position to contest as well, thanks to his high defensive IQ and excellent mobility for a true 7+ footer. Players his size shouldn’t be able to move like he does. We’re all spoiled by seeing Zinger move like a gazelle at 7’3", but Poeltl is tremendously mobile in his own right. He uses it to defend the PnR very well, and shows great lateral quickness and recovery when switched onto guards. His overall combination of size, mobility, IQ and high effort make him a terrific team defender. He just plays winning basketball, no frills.
Poeltl was great defensively as a freshman too, but what’s really impressive are the strides he’s made on the offensive end in his sophomore year. He did not have any post game as a frosh, scoring (efficiently at least) off PnR dives, transition, offensive boards, and showing good hands to make catches down low. This season, he’s improved his scoring from 16 points per 40 to 25 pp40. His usage has jumped and he’s scoring with Curry-like efficiency (68% TS!). He looks far more comfortable operating in the post, and shows great touch around the rim. He has improved his A/T ratio from 0.44:1 as a freshman to 1:1 this season. He just has a really strong feel for the game, plays with a high IQ and makes the right play the majority of the time. What’s more, he went from a 44% FT shooter as a freshman to shooting 70% on 7 FTAs per game this year. That’s ridiculous. The man has clearly put in work, and this type of effort to improve is exactly what NBA teams like to see in prospects.
The rapid improvement offensively is what makes Poeltl so intriguing. He is now so solid on both ends of the court, which is very rare for a 20 year old true center. Not many of the teams picking in the high lottery need a true C, but that shouldn’t stop a lot of them from drafting him. I think he’d be the perfect option for a team like Boston if they aren’t able to move into the top 2 in the lottery. High ceiling, high floor. He’s way too underrated by fans and draft sites at this time.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:32am #1044842
mamadouParticipantGood job man.
He has my attention since his MSG game against duke, 19-14-3, he was big time at the start of the season, after that game he had a bad month, but he’s pretty much back in biz.
In his last 9 games, 22-9, 71% FG(he’s no DeAndre, he’s a basketball player) 72% FT(6FTM per game).
The passing, the IQ is evolving as quickly as his FT % and volume(1,6 FTM to 4,8),, that’s really good thing for a young C, ask some all stars, all star caliber or ex all star C in the league.
He runs like crazy, he’s getting stronger, he’s developping his offensive skills, touch, his on ball game, while he was an off ball defensive player.
I like him to the celts too, different skill set, complementary skill set, they have ankward bigs, he could be ankward in a good way.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:32am #1044705
mamadouParticipantGood job man.
He has my attention since his MSG game against duke, 19-14-3, he was big time at the start of the season, after that game he had a bad month, but he’s pretty much back in biz.
In his last 9 games, 22-9, 71% FG(he’s no DeAndre, he’s a basketball player) 72% FT(6FTM per game).
The passing, the IQ is evolving as quickly as his FT % and volume(1,6 FTM to 4,8),, that’s really good thing for a young C, ask some all stars, all star caliber or ex all star C in the league.
He runs like crazy, he’s getting stronger, he’s developping his offensive skills, touch, his on ball game, while he was an off ball defensive player.
I like him to the celts too, different skill set, complementary skill set, they have ankward bigs, he could be ankward in a good way.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 6:39am #1044772
SubZeroParticipantI’m not sure what the Pelicans should go for in the draft, but Davis and Poeltl on the same team could be another great big man tandem, especially defensively. Davis switching on every pick and can guard the small perimeter 4’s, with Jakob patrolling the paint and shutting down the low/high post guys like Okafor and Marc Gasol
The Celtics could use him too, assuming they don’t use their pick in a trade. Their frontcourt is paperthin right now
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 6:39am #1044635
SubZeroParticipantI’m not sure what the Pelicans should go for in the draft, but Davis and Poeltl on the same team could be another great big man tandem, especially defensively. Davis switching on every pick and can guard the small perimeter 4’s, with Jakob patrolling the paint and shutting down the low/high post guys like Okafor and Marc Gasol
The Celtics could use him too, assuming they don’t use their pick in a trade. Their frontcourt is paperthin right now
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:52pm #1044767
cjwParticipantEasy there, Poeltl won’t be shutting down all star big men. He will be a solid defender but he’s no ben wallace.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:52pm #1044904
cjwParticipantEasy there, Poeltl won’t be shutting down all star big men. He will be a solid defender but he’s no ben wallace.
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- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 8:58am #1044792
RUDEBOY_Participantfunny u mentioned davis & poeltl on the same team…becuz most people say omer asik is his comparision…..i think the pelicans will select a wing like brown …or dunn to replace the injury prone holiday who becomes a free agent in 2017..if they’re still there..
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 8:58am #1044655
RUDEBOY_Participantfunny u mentioned davis & poeltl on the same team…becuz most people say omer asik is his comparision…..i think the pelicans will select a wing like brown …or dunn to replace the injury prone holiday who becomes a free agent in 2017..if they’re still there..
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:10am #1044820
CasualCeltThe Asik comparison is outdated by a year. So outdated.
But once people hear a comparison like that, they write a player off.
That’s what I’m here for, to shed light on underrated prospects.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:10am #1044683
CasualCeltThe Asik comparison is outdated by a year. So outdated.
But once people hear a comparison like that, they write a player off.
That’s what I’m here for, to shed light on underrated prospects.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 10:25am #1044804
lalailaParticipanthe is skilled 7footer, but TOP2???
whats abour him makes you think he is that special.. Not athletic freak, not physical stud, no three point shot, not elite defender? These are categories usually at least one of them have top3 pick bigman
I see he is good but still would take my homie Sabonis over him
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 10:25am #1044667
lalailaParticipanthe is skilled 7footer, but TOP2???
whats abour him makes you think he is that special.. Not athletic freak, not physical stud, no three point shot, not elite defender? These are categories usually at least one of them have top3 pick bigman
I see he is good but still would take my homie Sabonis over him
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 10:55am #1044816
mamadouParticipantObviously Domantas is an athletic freak, he has a 3 pts shot, he’s a great defender, rim protector.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 10:55am #1044679
mamadouParticipantObviously Domantas is an athletic freak, he has a 3 pts shot, he’s a great defender, rim protector.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:12am #1044822
CasualCeltFunny how being good at everything is a bad thing in today’s dumbed down world.
Funny how being 7’1" and mobile is nothing special.
I saw these same garbage arguments hurled against Gobert and Porzingis.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:12am #1044685
CasualCeltFunny how being good at everything is a bad thing in today’s dumbed down world.
Funny how being 7’1" and mobile is nothing special.
I saw these same garbage arguments hurled against Gobert and Porzingis.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:14pm #1044850
lalailaParticipantGobert with 7’9winspan is FREAK
Porzingins is SEVEN FOOT THREEEEE with three point shot
Like again I dont want to sound as a hater but if thinking he cant be top2 pick as isnt in Porzingis talent level area, then OK
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:14pm #1044713
lalailaParticipantGobert with 7’9winspan is FREAK
Porzingins is SEVEN FOOT THREEEEE with three point shot
Like again I dont want to sound as a hater but if thinking he cant be top2 pick as isnt in Porzingis talent level area, then OK
0- Posted on: Fri, 02/26/2016 - 7:55am #1045055
CasualCeltPoeltl went from having Gobert level offensive skills to being a better post scorer than Porzingis, all in one season.
Poeltl also moves as well as those guys, more or less.
True, he has a shorter wingspan than those guys, but his offense is going to make him a better overall player than Gobert, and a notch or two below Porzingis, HOFer.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 02/26/2016 - 7:55am #1044919
CasualCeltPoeltl went from having Gobert level offensive skills to being a better post scorer than Porzingis, all in one season.
Poeltl also moves as well as those guys, more or less.
True, he has a shorter wingspan than those guys, but his offense is going to make him a better overall player than Gobert, and a notch or two below Porzingis, HOFer.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:20am #1044830
HitsterParticipantI’m a Poeltl fan but top 2 in the draft is a bit of a stretch IMO. I think he has the potential to go top 5 but a lot depends who picks where and as I always say it only needs one GM to like you.
He looks a very solid defensive presence who could anchor a team for a decade if his potential pans out. He might not be a superstar or have as much possible upside as other guys in the draft but he’d be a lower risk pick and probably more NBA ready than otherr draftees.
His offensive game is improving and if he does look a legit two way player then his draft value will increase but I’d see his scoring as more a bonus. He might not be a dominant paint scorer or knocking down loads of mid range to 3 point jumpers but if he has some decent scoring moves then his PG wsill keep him interested. He is a athletic and mobile for his size, has a nice touch with the ball and a decent basketball IQ. He’s not expected to be a Ben Simmons type creative player but he knows how to handle the ball, can do what is asked of him and his team mates will happily give him the ball as they know he won’t be a liability in possession.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:20am #1044693
HitsterParticipantI’m a Poeltl fan but top 2 in the draft is a bit of a stretch IMO. I think he has the potential to go top 5 but a lot depends who picks where and as I always say it only needs one GM to like you.
He looks a very solid defensive presence who could anchor a team for a decade if his potential pans out. He might not be a superstar or have as much possible upside as other guys in the draft but he’d be a lower risk pick and probably more NBA ready than otherr draftees.
His offensive game is improving and if he does look a legit two way player then his draft value will increase but I’d see his scoring as more a bonus. He might not be a dominant paint scorer or knocking down loads of mid range to 3 point jumpers but if he has some decent scoring moves then his PG wsill keep him interested. He is a athletic and mobile for his size, has a nice touch with the ball and a decent basketball IQ. He’s not expected to be a Ben Simmons type creative player but he knows how to handle the ball, can do what is asked of him and his team mates will happily give him the ball as they know he won’t be a liability in possession.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:21am #1044832
CasualCeltWith all the talk about the Celtics trading the pick for Okafor, I suspect that Poeltl is going to end up the better player.
He’s already got 80-90-100% of Okafor’s offensive game, and he developed it in one year (seemingly).
And defensively, there’s no comparison at all. Poeltl holding Okafor to 6 points is the perfect example of that.
Okafor might always average a point or four more per game than Poeltl, but Poeltl will win more, wherever he goes, and his plus minus will almost always be in the positive, from day 1.
Even the 76ers regret drafting Okafor over the 2 way center they passed on.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:21am #1044695
CasualCeltWith all the talk about the Celtics trading the pick for Okafor, I suspect that Poeltl is going to end up the better player.
He’s already got 80-90-100% of Okafor’s offensive game, and he developed it in one year (seemingly).
And defensively, there’s no comparison at all. Poeltl holding Okafor to 6 points is the perfect example of that.
Okafor might always average a point or four more per game than Poeltl, but Poeltl will win more, wherever he goes, and his plus minus will almost always be in the positive, from day 1.
Even the 76ers regret drafting Okafor over the 2 way center they passed on.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:34am #1044846
CasualCeltSteph Curry PER: 32.2
JPoeltl PER: 33.4
Steph Curry True Shooting: 67.6%
JPoeltl True Shooting: 68.2%
Curry’s PER and TS% are both NBA best, and Poeltl’s PER and TS are even better, though at the college level. But this is one of those "Ah ha" moments for you guys, or at least it should be.
Curry EFG%: 63.2%
Poeltl EFG%: 66.8%
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 11:34am #1044709
CasualCeltSteph Curry PER: 32.2
JPoeltl PER: 33.4
Steph Curry True Shooting: 67.6%
JPoeltl True Shooting: 68.2%
Curry’s PER and TS% are both NBA best, and Poeltl’s PER and TS are even better, though at the college level. But this is one of those "Ah ha" moments for you guys, or at least it should be.
Curry EFG%: 63.2%
Poeltl EFG%: 66.8%
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:14pm #1044852
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:14pm #1044715
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:25pm #1044856
nill650Participanthe is a top 10 draft pick but to think he will go 2 overall is a bit of a reach unless its philly picking,nothing like another center for tank city.There is no way this guy is a better prospect than ingram
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:25pm #1044719
nill650Participanthe is a top 10 draft pick but to think he will go 2 overall is a bit of a reach unless its philly picking,nothing like another center for tank city.There is no way this guy is a better prospect than ingram
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:45pm #1044864
CasualCeltPoeltl has a better chance of getting drafted over Simmons than Ingram, but he could go over either/both.
The obvious problem with forming rigid hierarchies of draft prospects in Dec/January is that you miss out on the late bloomers.
Just think about Poeltl’s development this year Vs Ben Simmons development. Simmons is afraid to even work on his weaknesses, like shooting, while Poeltl has turned his weakness, scoring, into a huge strength.
Poeltl is already a better scorer than Simmons, because he scores the same while shooting much much more efficiently.
Do you really want to tell me that Simmons’ passing is more valuable than Poeltl’s defense?
Like I said, you’re clinging to outdated assumptions.
The only reason I hesitate to put Poeltl over Ingram at the moment is because Ingram has similar length, and a 3 point shot. It will take a few years to get there, but Ingram will eventually be a franchise PF, even at 220 lbs. Anthony Davis level impact.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:45pm #1044727
CasualCeltPoeltl has a better chance of getting drafted over Simmons than Ingram, but he could go over either/both.
The obvious problem with forming rigid hierarchies of draft prospects in Dec/January is that you miss out on the late bloomers.
Just think about Poeltl’s development this year Vs Ben Simmons development. Simmons is afraid to even work on his weaknesses, like shooting, while Poeltl has turned his weakness, scoring, into a huge strength.
Poeltl is already a better scorer than Simmons, because he scores the same while shooting much much more efficiently.
Do you really want to tell me that Simmons’ passing is more valuable than Poeltl’s defense?
Like I said, you’re clinging to outdated assumptions.
The only reason I hesitate to put Poeltl over Ingram at the moment is because Ingram has similar length, and a 3 point shot. It will take a few years to get there, but Ingram will eventually be a franchise PF, even at 220 lbs. Anthony Davis level impact.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:08pm #1044737
Hype MachineTo be fair, there were quite a few Poeltl threads suggesting he was a top-5 pick before he hit that slump in November/December.
I think most people would agree that he’s got what it takes to be an NBA starting Center…but the Hype Machine is stuck in 1st gear because it’s pretty hard for fans to get psyched for a Vanilla Euro playing a traditional center role.
Those guys will help you win games for sure though…and I predict he’ll be in the top-half of starting centers when hes been in the league a couple of years.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:17pm #1044741
CasualCeltHard to get psyched until he drops 20 points in his first week as an NBA player.
Just think, the basketball world rolled it’s collective eyes when Derrick Fisher announced that Porzingis was going to start at PF for Game 1 of the regular season.
People are just racist against white dudes, even when they’re stone cold killers like Porzgins or Poeltl.
It makes it all the sweeter when they make little b!tches out of their playahaters.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:17pm #1044878
CasualCeltHard to get psyched until he drops 20 points in his first week as an NBA player.
Just think, the basketball world rolled it’s collective eyes when Derrick Fisher announced that Porzingis was going to start at PF for Game 1 of the regular season.
People are just racist against white dudes, even when they’re stone cold killers like Porzgins or Poeltl.
It makes it all the sweeter when they make little b!tches out of their playahaters.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:08pm #1044874
Hype MachineTo be fair, there were quite a few Poeltl threads suggesting he was a top-5 pick before he hit that slump in November/December.
I think most people would agree that he’s got what it takes to be an NBA starting Center…but the Hype Machine is stuck in 1st gear because it’s pretty hard for fans to get psyched for a Vanilla Euro playing a traditional center role.
Those guys will help you win games for sure though…and I predict he’ll be in the top-half of starting centers when hes been in the league a couple of years.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:36pm #1044858
mikeyvthedonParticipantYes, he anihilated USC. He has had a great year and improved a lot as a FT shooter, plus definitely become a more competent post player (though saying he has offensive skills Jahlil Okafor possesses, even if you bring up Jahlil’s match-up with him in the tournament last year, seems to leave out what an absolute monster he was on that end of the floor as a freshman last year. Plus, how much better he has gotten, as he has stretched out his game and improved greatly as a FT shooter as well). Still, comparing college PER to NBA PER is one of the more absurd use of analytics you have used. Michael Beasley’s PER was 36.9, DeJuan Blair’s was 35.4 and most important of all, John Bryant’s was 35.6. Using raw statistics to determine future NBA success is not a game that always works.
In no way am I calling Poeltl the next John Bryant, or even saying that he is not a solid NBA prospect. He has made strides, but you need to actually watch him play before stating just how enormous his NBA upside is. Russell Westbrook had an 18.3 PER in his sophomore season at UCLA, while Kevin Love posted a 33.5 on the same team. The same Kevin Love who actually HAD a three-point shot (plus shot other jumpers) as opposed to the one you are suddenly wishing Poeltl develops.
Their is upside with Poeltl, he has made strides, has good hands and he moves pretty well for a big man. He still can get blown by at times, gets into foul trouble more often than he should and has actually dropped off as a shot blocker. Unlike your boy Porzingis, Poeltl is not exceptionally long. Plus, while people are willing to say just how incredible he is as a defender, Jonathan Tjarks points out legitimate concerns in this breakdown. No one knows how time will play out, and it is fine if you think he is better than Ben Simmons or Buddy Hield (or Brandon Ingram, the guy I guess you still feel is the top pick in the draft?), but just be aware that their are serious flaws in using college statistics to project future NBA success on a grand scale.
Also, for Win Shares per 40 (college is 40 minutes, after all), Delon Wright had a solid .289 last season at the same institution as Poeltl. Yes, he was older, a senior, different position, the whole nine, but he has played 45 NBA minutes. Funnier still, the person who averaged the highest single season Win Shares per 40 (since 2009-10, from the same place in College-Basketball Reference where you got your #’s) is Kelly Olynyk (.3182). More than Anthony Davis (.3136) and Karl-Anthony Towns (.3114). We know how much you love Olynyk and the "OE", but those two players are in a different galaxy in terms of where they will be in the league in 5 years time.
Now, the last thing is this whole +/- deal you seem to constantly try to bring to the forefront. Do you want to know who has an even HIGHER +/- than Kelly Olynyk during the past two seasons? Patrick Patterson. Pat was at 253 last year (though I will give you, less per game and per 36 than the OE) and is at 338 this year (Olynyk currently at 206, which is quite good, with last years excuse being null and void). Do you see people talking about the Patrick Patterson or PP effect (yes, I am quite mature).
Feel free to point out that Okafor is the guy who has played the most minutes on the worst team in the league. Can we agree that sometimes, role and surroundings may in fact do what you claim as "making guys winning players"? Because, much like the Celtics, you are not going to find to many Raptors fans who claim Patrick Patterson is the reason for their success. In fact, you will see more claiming how they can use an upgrade at the very position he plays (which happened here, a few days ago, with the Celtics). Think you really like Brad Stevens and if Olynyk is not playing 30 mpg instead of 20, their is a reason. This is not even to bash Poeltl or Olynyk, more to hope you can see that your fool proof reasoning with some of these analytics is nowhere close to being so. Analytics can be very valuable and tell quite a bit, it just seems you tend to use them when they are convenient to your argument, without necessarily leaving the uncertainty of what makes up the bigger picture.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:36pm #1044721
mikeyvthedonParticipantYes, he anihilated USC. He has had a great year and improved a lot as a FT shooter, plus definitely become a more competent post player (though saying he has offensive skills Jahlil Okafor possesses, even if you bring up Jahlil’s match-up with him in the tournament last year, seems to leave out what an absolute monster he was on that end of the floor as a freshman last year. Plus, how much better he has gotten, as he has stretched out his game and improved greatly as a FT shooter as well). Still, comparing college PER to NBA PER is one of the more absurd use of analytics you have used. Michael Beasley’s PER was 36.9, DeJuan Blair’s was 35.4 and most important of all, John Bryant’s was 35.6. Using raw statistics to determine future NBA success is not a game that always works.
In no way am I calling Poeltl the next John Bryant, or even saying that he is not a solid NBA prospect. He has made strides, but you need to actually watch him play before stating just how enormous his NBA upside is. Russell Westbrook had an 18.3 PER in his sophomore season at UCLA, while Kevin Love posted a 33.5 on the same team. The same Kevin Love who actually HAD a three-point shot (plus shot other jumpers) as opposed to the one you are suddenly wishing Poeltl develops.
Their is upside with Poeltl, he has made strides, has good hands and he moves pretty well for a big man. He still can get blown by at times, gets into foul trouble more often than he should and has actually dropped off as a shot blocker. Unlike your boy Porzingis, Poeltl is not exceptionally long. Plus, while people are willing to say just how incredible he is as a defender, Jonathan Tjarks points out legitimate concerns in this breakdown. No one knows how time will play out, and it is fine if you think he is better than Ben Simmons or Buddy Hield (or Brandon Ingram, the guy I guess you still feel is the top pick in the draft?), but just be aware that their are serious flaws in using college statistics to project future NBA success on a grand scale.
Also, for Win Shares per 40 (college is 40 minutes, after all), Delon Wright had a solid .289 last season at the same institution as Poeltl. Yes, he was older, a senior, different position, the whole nine, but he has played 45 NBA minutes. Funnier still, the person who averaged the highest single season Win Shares per 40 (since 2009-10, from the same place in College-Basketball Reference where you got your #’s) is Kelly Olynyk (.3182). More than Anthony Davis (.3136) and Karl-Anthony Towns (.3114). We know how much you love Olynyk and the "OE", but those two players are in a different galaxy in terms of where they will be in the league in 5 years time.
Now, the last thing is this whole +/- deal you seem to constantly try to bring to the forefront. Do you want to know who has an even HIGHER +/- than Kelly Olynyk during the past two seasons? Patrick Patterson. Pat was at 253 last year (though I will give you, less per game and per 36 than the OE) and is at 338 this year (Olynyk currently at 206, which is quite good, with last years excuse being null and void). Do you see people talking about the Patrick Patterson or PP effect (yes, I am quite mature).
Feel free to point out that Okafor is the guy who has played the most minutes on the worst team in the league. Can we agree that sometimes, role and surroundings may in fact do what you claim as "making guys winning players"? Because, much like the Celtics, you are not going to find to many Raptors fans who claim Patrick Patterson is the reason for their success. In fact, you will see more claiming how they can use an upgrade at the very position he plays (which happened here, a few days ago, with the Celtics). Think you really like Brad Stevens and if Olynyk is not playing 30 mpg instead of 20, their is a reason. This is not even to bash Poeltl or Olynyk, more to hope you can see that your fool proof reasoning with some of these analytics is nowhere close to being so. Analytics can be very valuable and tell quite a bit, it just seems you tend to use them when they are convenient to your argument, without necessarily leaving the uncertainty of what makes up the bigger picture.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:43pm #1044747
CasualCeltThanks for responding. I wish you posted more.
I’m flattered that you’ve absorbed so much of my MVP-level basketball philosophy.
It should do nothing but enhance the quality and reputation of draft.net, especially when you guys put Poeltl in the top four before the other mock drafts do.
Because surely you’ll eventually see that Poeltl didn’t just have one good game against USC. He’s been on a legendary streak for 9 games or so, in conference.
Not all players develop at the same rate, and bigs usually take longer to develop.
Yes, Poeltl is currently playing better offensively than Jahlil as a freshman.
The only difference is that Okafor made a better first impression by being great from day 1.
Jumping to conclusions based on the first impression of super-polished freshmen is how a lot of draft mistakes get made.
D’Angelo Russell? Super-polished and made a big first impression as a frosh. Draft mistake. Actually regressed over his freshman season, especially against real conference competition.
Jahlil? Big first impression, came into college super-polished. Lack of athleticism will always limit his ceiling greatly. Draft mistake.
Ben Simmons? Super-polished, big first impression as a freshman. Hasn’t improved on anything over the course of the season. FT shooting regressing sharply.
Not every kid gets world class youth coaching starting at 5 years old.
Any discussion of future upside should look first at the Rate of Current Improvement.
Poeltl is simply on another trajectory from most of these guys.
And the change is happening so quickly you just haven’t let it sink in that Poeltl has surpassed Okafor as a prospect, and perhaps even as a scorer.
+/- is very useful when used to compare players on teams that win roughly the same % of games.
That’s why I think it’s fairly safe to compare Porzingis to Towns, because the Knicks and Wolves has somewhat similar records.
PPaterson plays on an elite team with an elite record, so while the +/- stat isn’t perfect, you could still use it to compare Patterson to TThompson, for example.
But time and time again I’ve seen highly hyped prospects do nothing to help their team’s +/- at the NBA level, for years, while people still hype them up, along with hyping their empty stats.
Wiggins’ supposed defensive talent was all based on theoretical potential, and nothing to do with Wiggins actual defensive ability, or his mentality.
If I was looking for defensive mentality, Wiggins would be clearly below average. As is his defense, still.
Does Ben Simmons have a defensive mentality? Does he grind when the going gets tough? Hell no.
Same with DRussell. If he ever averages 20 ppg he’ll still probably only be an average player because of his defense.
Two-way ability is always slept on and underappreciated in draft circles. Defensive potential is always just assumed of any pretty boy who puts up offensive stats in college.
Just look at James Harden as an example of a diva who scores like an MVP, but who is still an average NBA player overall.
Poeltl and Ingram (and Brown) have that two way ability/potential.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:24pm #1044759
mikeyvthedonParticipantCould you consider posting less? Deal? Seriously though, I like that you actually do respond to posts. The problem is, some of your responses completely miss the point of the post in the first place. First impressions? Really? Where did I say anything about that? And you truly believe that Jahlil and D’Angelo’s "first impression" is what made them top NBA Draft prospects. It is a body of work. D’Angelo, if anything, is a reason why you should NOT go crazy on college analytics in predicting future NBA success. Because he was on top of a bunch of different models. He was not on yours, so pat yourself on the back, just realize this is once again only using them when it tries to suit you.
Poeltl is scoring more per game than Jahlil, true. But you think he has become a better offensive player? And do you not take into account that Jahlil has improved his offensive capabilities as well? Am not sure if it was led by you or not, but a lot of people were harping on his FT shooting, which has improved to 68.8%. The guy is averaging close to 18 ppg, on a godforsaken team, but you think Poeltl would be doing any better right now? With the speed of the NBA game?
Improvement is obviously part of it, but it is also a combination of skills as a player that lead a person forward to the next level. If you think that Poeltl will be enough of a two-way player to provide more than Ben Simmons, be my guest, but I think their is definite uncertainty towards that being the case. Saying Simmons or Wiggins "lacks a defensive mentality", makes it WAY more black and white than it actually is. For as much as "defensive analytics" paint Wiggins as a poor defender, it is also well known that they do not tell even close to the entire story. Defense is still definitely a grey area, and it has a huge team dynamic that goes along with it. If you watch a Timberwolves game and still feel that he is a poor defender and not asked to play a huge role, than go ahead, but I think your eyes will deceive you.
Ben Simmons has absolute potential to be a stellar defender, plus brings versatility with his quickness and athleticism, not to mention strength. LSU is a horribly undersized and poor rebounding team, he has had to carry quite a load. But, you really think they would have had their world change with Jakob Poeltl instead of Ben Simmons? I remain skeptical. Also remain skeptical as to whether I would rather have Patrick Patterson as opposed to Tristan Thompson. I think the Raptors would love to have Trsitan Thompson as a PF upgrade, personally. Even with his not stretching the floor, lets see what Patrick Patterson gives them come play-off time. We know the most memorable thing Kelly Olynyk did last post-season was rip Kevin Love’s shoulder out of the socket.
The Knicks and Timberwolves have "fairly similar records"? New York is 6.5 games back of 8th place, and Minnesota is 11 games back, so again, suit yourself. Guess it makes more sense now than it did as of January 22, 2016, when New York was 22-23 and Minnesota was 13-31. Whatever helps you big up Porzingis, I guess. Wait, and you are telling me you have seen top ranked prospects, ON BAD TEAMS! For years! Well, guys on bad teams tend to have bad +/-. Especially if you play a lot of minutes on bad teams. Still, if your team is not terrible, awful bad, it will likely at least be alright. I just think it is difficult to say that a guy on a bad team, who may be waiting to rebuild for a while is not a "winning player". Which is an argument you seem to try to make. They may not be a "franchise player" or a "revolutionary player" or even an "All-Star player". But, some of the guys with positive +/- are "role players". They may even play it to a T, but they are not necessarily better players than some of the guys on losing teams who have yet to find the right pieces to stay above water.
Still, name me all of these draft prospects who are "losing players", whose +/- stays stagnant for years? I find that as players get better, or teams get better, generally their +/- improves as well. Plus, saying James Harden is an average NBA player is something I think many NBA teams would like to have an issue with. Not to mention, when going off on Rondo, what did you think of him when he was actually a Celtic? Either way, will Poeltl "two way play" make him better than someone who provides as much skill as a Ben Simmons? Plus, seeing you did not read what Jon Tjarks wrote, are you so sure that Poeltl is the defender that you think he is? Do you watch him play, or are you just blown away by the numbers and highlights? Because as someone who has watched him play quite a bit, I have my doubts as to him being worth a #2 pick. Or, as you seem to claim, fighting for the Naismith or #1 pick. All I know is, Oregon beat them twice, our center weighs all of a buck 95 and Dillon Brooks put dude on skates. Poeltl is playing very well, but to say that will make him NBA ready, or takes away some of the things that make other prospects possibly better draft picks, still is not necessarily the case. Even with his PER.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:57pm #1044769
CasualCeltAre you oblivious to the fact that some players care more about winning and team than other players?
Do they all equally want to sacrafice for the greater good, in your mind?
I’m a Celtics fan, so I know about this stuff. I knew the Celtics would make the playoffs after getting rid of Rondo and Jeff Green, and they did. What did I think about Rondo when he was a Celtic? The same I think about Simmons, but perhaps even worse.
The flashy pass loses it’s luster when you watch a guy like Rondo refuse to shoot, and refuse to play defense, and refuse to pass unless there’s an assist in it for him.
Maybe I’m letting that Rondo baggage influence my view of Simmons, but show me an NBA champion and I’ll show you a guy who didn’t quit on his college team, or pout on his college bench, or not try to take over games when a game was on the line.
A lot of times a fancy passer who carries himself with a lot of swag is just trying to compensate for a big hole in his game.
With DRussell it was his total lack of a first step, which kills him on defense even more than offense.
With Rondo it was his utter inability to make a jump shot or a foul shot. So he pranced and preened and quit on Boston, Dallas, and now Sac.
Too cool for school? I’ve seen it all before.
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 4:39pm #1044793
Hype MachineT-Rex – You got more passion for scouting NBA talent than anyone. I love your posts as much as others hate them…but the solution is clear man…You gotta find a bigger format to preach to.
Your talents and ambitions are somewhat wasted here. You have thirst for educating people on prospects that clearly isn’t being fulfilled on these forums. Become a scout…who is holding you back?
The goal of a scout is not only to educate people, but influence them as well. Most people like myself are just casual scouting fans…which is why we have no choice but to influenced by those who are more prominent in the industry. And we’re only 1% of basketball fans…the other 99% have no interest whatsoever in talent evaluation.
There is no formal pathway to becoming a scout…you decide to do it and then put in the hard work. After that, it becomes a process of influencing people…which is probably where you’re falling short. I’m not sure if its some kind of weird superiority complex (eg claiming your the best scout in all of basketball) or an inherent disagreeable nature, but it’s hard for people to buy what you’re selling because they have a natural defense mechanism against anything you say. If it wasn’t like this, everyone would be grateful for your insights instead of wishing you’d post less.
Eg. Start your own website….you clearly have the IT knowledge. Or keep making your prospect videos, just do so objectively and not just the guys you’re a fan of. Whoever is making those draftexpress videos is on the right track and the internets hardly over-saturated with that content. Start a blog..podcast…whatever. The guys writing the draftnet blogs are reaching a bigger audience. Opportunities will open up if you’re as good as you say you are and have the charisma and people skills to make it happen.
Just do it man…You’ll never get people to agree with you 100% of the time. Just don’t leave them disagreeing with you 100% of the time due to human factors that are completely unrelated to the talent being evaluated.
Honestly man, you’re closer to making a career in scouting than you think. Just work on your weaknesses, just like a player would. Whatever you publish, I’ll read with interest. Didn’t mean to get personal with this thread or anything…I just think you could be doing more (and getting yourself and others less frustrated in the process).
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 4:52pm #1044795
CasualCeltThanks man. I don’t think I’d make it as a scout because of my personality. But maybe youtube videos and a few well placed bets each season, things like ROY, and a couple team over/unders.
At least now I have an outlet on youtube, and here of course.
Unfortunately I think I’m "playing" at full potential, without much untapped upside. Destined to remain the shadows like most everybody else.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 4:52pm #1044932
CasualCeltThanks man. I don’t think I’d make it as a scout because of my personality. But maybe youtube videos and a few well placed bets each season, things like ROY, and a couple team over/unders.
At least now I have an outlet on youtube, and here of course.
Unfortunately I think I’m "playing" at full potential, without much untapped upside. Destined to remain the shadows like most everybody else.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 02/26/2016 - 4:30am #1045027
ZachAttackParticipantIf he was a scout… Andrew Harrison would’ve been the first pick in the draft.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 02/26/2016 - 4:30am #1044891
ZachAttackParticipantIf he was a scout… Andrew Harrison would’ve been the first pick in the draft.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 4:39pm #1044930
Hype MachineT-Rex – You got more passion for scouting NBA talent than anyone. I love your posts as much as others hate them…but the solution is clear man…You gotta find a bigger format to preach to.
Your talents and ambitions are somewhat wasted here. You have thirst for educating people on prospects that clearly isn’t being fulfilled on these forums. Become a scout…who is holding you back?
The goal of a scout is not only to educate people, but influence them as well. Most people like myself are just casual scouting fans…which is why we have no choice but to influenced by those who are more prominent in the industry. And we’re only 1% of basketball fans…the other 99% have no interest whatsoever in talent evaluation.
There is no formal pathway to becoming a scout…you decide to do it and then put in the hard work. After that, it becomes a process of influencing people…which is probably where you’re falling short. I’m not sure if its some kind of weird superiority complex (eg claiming your the best scout in all of basketball) or an inherent disagreeable nature, but it’s hard for people to buy what you’re selling because they have a natural defense mechanism against anything you say. If it wasn’t like this, everyone would be grateful for your insights instead of wishing you’d post less.
Eg. Start your own website….you clearly have the IT knowledge. Or keep making your prospect videos, just do so objectively and not just the guys you’re a fan of. Whoever is making those draftexpress videos is on the right track and the internets hardly over-saturated with that content. Start a blog..podcast…whatever. The guys writing the draftnet blogs are reaching a bigger audience. Opportunities will open up if you’re as good as you say you are and have the charisma and people skills to make it happen.
Just do it man…You’ll never get people to agree with you 100% of the time. Just don’t leave them disagreeing with you 100% of the time due to human factors that are completely unrelated to the talent being evaluated.
Honestly man, you’re closer to making a career in scouting than you think. Just work on your weaknesses, just like a player would. Whatever you publish, I’ll read with interest. Didn’t mean to get personal with this thread or anything…I just think you could be doing more (and getting yourself and others less frustrated in the process).
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 9:18pm #1044839
mikeyvthedonParticipantOr you just missed the years I had to say why I didn’t feel like he was close to the best point guard in the league (those were troubling times)? I had to defend against people who called him a Champion, since he did, in fact, win a ring (but you’re a Celtics fan, you know that). With that being said, dude did win a ring. Came pretty close to winning another. Was his inability to sacrifice for the team the reason the Celtics lost in 2010? Really? Say whatever you want about after that and I flat out admit he never LED a team to a title (as in being their best player, he was 4th banana at best in 2008), but he was part of a title team. Does that not put a bit of a hit in your argument?
To me, saying you know that no NBA champion "quit on his college team" (which, I think is absolutely going overboard in describing the Tennessee game), "pout on the bench" or "not try to take over games when a game is on the line" (because Ben Simmons is Ben Simmons, and he should just be able to take over the game on his own), shows that you are ignoring some who have been said to have done such things at the NBA level (when they are 19 year olds). Like you studied Scottie Pippen at Central Arkansas, when he pouted and refused to go into the game when Phil Jackson gave the final shot to Toni Kukoc in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 1994? This was after he had won 3 titles. Does that fit your NBA Champion motif, or does it have to have happend when they were 19-year olds?
So, if Ainge has a chance for Ben Simmons, you say "no, take Poeltl". Because Ben Simmons is only flashy passes and doesn’t take over enough? Well, one fact that definitely separates him from Rondo is that he already shot 28 more FT’s in 28 games than Rajon Rondo shot in 68 games. At a 10% better clip, for that matter. He is not confident in his jumper, but no way that can improve over time. Ben can at least use either hand, even if he prefers to finish right (he shoots FT’s left, by the way). Being someone who is at least not afraid of getting fouled, and has the ability to create drives and get to the line, that is a pretty damn significant difference. Plus his being 6’10. Also, you really think Ben Simmons only cares about assist #’s? Really? It seems like such a projection, and also I am guessing sour grapes for a former Celtic you probably did not always despise.
Ben Simmons runs like a deer and has ball skills you do not see in a 6’10 player. He is strong, he is a very good passer, not just a flashy passer. Guys being able to "take over a game" is something that gets thrust on a single guy. Like when the same thing was placed on Andrew Wiggins, whose most amazing individual game came in a loss to West Virginia. He sure as hell tried to take over the game, but it was not something that he could turn on and off. He still had good games and bad games. Most young players are inconsistent. So you are going to write these guys off as ever being part of a title team?
I never thought Rasheed Wallace or DeShawn Stevenson would win titles, I was wrong. Your Celtics and a few other teams gave up on Chauncey Billups mirroring the sentiment you had in your first two statements above. They were wrong. Hell, when your poster boy for not caring about winning or sacrificing for the greater good is a player who was indeed, on a championship team, it seems to be a pretty loose formula. But, alas, you are a Celtics fan and I am not. How would I know? To me, good players are guys you want to help your team win. If you have a chance to take one player who is better than another, it is probably a good idea. You might be kicking yourself for not taking Kyle Lowry with the Suns 21st pick in 2006, but would you want to do a rewind and take Marcus Williams? No, pretty sure you are good with Rondo, for whatever heck he caused you.
When someone is put in the right situation, winning can happen. I absolutely doubt that you can tell everything you need to know about Ben Simmons by what you saw at Tennessee. He is not Magic Johnson, as much as people want to call him that. But has he really not shown any ability to be a productive basketball player, who people would like to play with? I find your certainty of his not being so to be highly skeptical. Like people that questioned Andre Drummond’s motor and love for the game. Hell, Andrew Bynum was a vital part of a couple championship teams. As much as you want the first pick to be the person that leads your franchise to championship glory, it tends to take other pieces. I have very little confidence in the theory that you can tell what type of player Ben Simmons is opposed to Jakob Poeltl due to your "he cares more about winning" theorem. Because numerous champions have had trouble handling adversity and still have rings or competitive careers to show for it. If you could give me a breakdown of how every NBA Champion handled adversity and losing at 19, would appreciate it, though. Or does it not matter, because Ben Simmons developed to early to improve as time goes on? The "first impression" effect?
0- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 9:53pm #1044997
CasualCeltYou took that "champion" comment way too literally. Of course there are exceptions.
But you don’t spend a #1 pick hoping a guy can be the exception, and hope that your team can somehow luck into a championship.
There’s a big difference between whether Simmons is a Top 3 talent, and whether he’s going to have an NBA career.
I like Jaylen Brown’s ability to get to the basket and score at the NBA level more than Simmons.
Simmons is a really stiff athlete. Really tight hips. Lateral quickness of an aligator. Only meant for straight line motion.
Jabari Parker is the same way. So is Blake to an extent, but not nearly as bad as Parker and Simmons.
NBA 1s, 2, and 3s are going to shred Simmons off the dribble.
Simmons better toughen up to play NBA PF, because that’s his position whether he likes it or not.
I think Jaylen Brown will be better at SG, SF, and PF, especially defensively.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 9:53pm #1044861
CasualCeltYou took that "champion" comment way too literally. Of course there are exceptions.
But you don’t spend a #1 pick hoping a guy can be the exception, and hope that your team can somehow luck into a championship.
There’s a big difference between whether Simmons is a Top 3 talent, and whether he’s going to have an NBA career.
I like Jaylen Brown’s ability to get to the basket and score at the NBA level more than Simmons.
Simmons is a really stiff athlete. Really tight hips. Lateral quickness of an aligator. Only meant for straight line motion.
Jabari Parker is the same way. So is Blake to an extent, but not nearly as bad as Parker and Simmons.
NBA 1s, 2, and 3s are going to shred Simmons off the dribble.
Simmons better toughen up to play NBA PF, because that’s his position whether he likes it or not.
I think Jaylen Brown will be better at SG, SF, and PF, especially defensively.
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 9:18pm #1044975
mikeyvthedonParticipantOr you just missed the years I had to say why I didn’t feel like he was close to the best point guard in the league (those were troubling times)? I had to defend against people who called him a Champion, since he did, in fact, win a ring (but you’re a Celtics fan, you know that). With that being said, dude did win a ring. Came pretty close to winning another. Was his inability to sacrifice for the team the reason the Celtics lost in 2010? Really? Say whatever you want about after that and I flat out admit he never LED a team to a title (as in being their best player, he was 4th banana at best in 2008), but he was part of a title team. Does that not put a bit of a hit in your argument?
To me, saying you know that no NBA champion "quit on his college team" (which, I think is absolutely going overboard in describing the Tennessee game), "pout on the bench" or "not try to take over games when a game is on the line" (because Ben Simmons is Ben Simmons, and he should just be able to take over the game on his own), shows that you are ignoring some who have been said to have done such things at the NBA level (when they are 19 year olds). Like you studied Scottie Pippen at Central Arkansas, when he pouted and refused to go into the game when Phil Jackson gave the final shot to Toni Kukoc in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 1994? This was after he had won 3 titles. Does that fit your NBA Champion motif, or does it have to have happend when they were 19-year olds?
So, if Ainge has a chance for Ben Simmons, you say "no, take Poeltl". Because Ben Simmons is only flashy passes and doesn’t take over enough? Well, one fact that definitely separates him from Rondo is that he already shot 28 more FT’s in 28 games than Rajon Rondo shot in 68 games. At a 10% better clip, for that matter. He is not confident in his jumper, but no way that can improve over time. Ben can at least use either hand, even if he prefers to finish right (he shoots FT’s left, by the way). Being someone who is at least not afraid of getting fouled, and has the ability to create drives and get to the line, that is a pretty damn significant difference. Plus his being 6’10. Also, you really think Ben Simmons only cares about assist #’s? Really? It seems like such a projection, and also I am guessing sour grapes for a former Celtic you probably did not always despise.
Ben Simmons runs like a deer and has ball skills you do not see in a 6’10 player. He is strong, he is a very good passer, not just a flashy passer. Guys being able to "take over a game" is something that gets thrust on a single guy. Like when the same thing was placed on Andrew Wiggins, whose most amazing individual game came in a loss to West Virginia. He sure as hell tried to take over the game, but it was not something that he could turn on and off. He still had good games and bad games. Most young players are inconsistent. So you are going to write these guys off as ever being part of a title team?
I never thought Rasheed Wallace or DeShawn Stevenson would win titles, I was wrong. Your Celtics and a few other teams gave up on Chauncey Billups mirroring the sentiment you had in your first two statements above. They were wrong. Hell, when your poster boy for not caring about winning or sacrificing for the greater good is a player who was indeed, on a championship team, it seems to be a pretty loose formula. But, alas, you are a Celtics fan and I am not. How would I know? To me, good players are guys you want to help your team win. If you have a chance to take one player who is better than another, it is probably a good idea. You might be kicking yourself for not taking Kyle Lowry with the Suns 21st pick in 2006, but would you want to do a rewind and take Marcus Williams? No, pretty sure you are good with Rondo, for whatever heck he caused you.
When someone is put in the right situation, winning can happen. I absolutely doubt that you can tell everything you need to know about Ben Simmons by what you saw at Tennessee. He is not Magic Johnson, as much as people want to call him that. But has he really not shown any ability to be a productive basketball player, who people would like to play with? I find your certainty of his not being so to be highly skeptical. Like people that questioned Andre Drummond’s motor and love for the game. Hell, Andrew Bynum was a vital part of a couple championship teams. As much as you want the first pick to be the person that leads your franchise to championship glory, it tends to take other pieces. I have very little confidence in the theory that you can tell what type of player Ben Simmons is opposed to Jakob Poeltl due to your "he cares more about winning" theorem. Because numerous champions have had trouble handling adversity and still have rings or competitive careers to show for it. If you could give me a breakdown of how every NBA Champion handled adversity and losing at 19, would appreciate it, though. Or does it not matter, because Ben Simmons developed to early to improve as time goes on? The "first impression" effect?
0
- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:57pm #1044906
CasualCeltAre you oblivious to the fact that some players care more about winning and team than other players?
Do they all equally want to sacrafice for the greater good, in your mind?
I’m a Celtics fan, so I know about this stuff. I knew the Celtics would make the playoffs after getting rid of Rondo and Jeff Green, and they did. What did I think about Rondo when he was a Celtic? The same I think about Simmons, but perhaps even worse.
The flashy pass loses it’s luster when you watch a guy like Rondo refuse to shoot, and refuse to play defense, and refuse to pass unless there’s an assist in it for him.
Maybe I’m letting that Rondo baggage influence my view of Simmons, but show me an NBA champion and I’ll show you a guy who didn’t quit on his college team, or pout on his college bench, or not try to take over games when a game was on the line.
A lot of times a fancy passer who carries himself with a lot of swag is just trying to compensate for a big hole in his game.
With DRussell it was his total lack of a first step, which kills him on defense even more than offense.
With Rondo it was his utter inability to make a jump shot or a foul shot. So he pranced and preened and quit on Boston, Dallas, and now Sac.
Too cool for school? I’ve seen it all before.
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- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:24pm #1044896
mikeyvthedonParticipantCould you consider posting less? Deal? Seriously though, I like that you actually do respond to posts. The problem is, some of your responses completely miss the point of the post in the first place. First impressions? Really? Where did I say anything about that? And you truly believe that Jahlil and D’Angelo’s "first impression" is what made them top NBA Draft prospects. It is a body of work. D’Angelo, if anything, is a reason why you should NOT go crazy on college analytics in predicting future NBA success. Because he was on top of a bunch of different models. He was not on yours, so pat yourself on the back, just realize this is once again only using them when it tries to suit you.
Poeltl is scoring more per game than Jahlil, true. But you think he has become a better offensive player? And do you not take into account that Jahlil has improved his offensive capabilities as well? Am not sure if it was led by you or not, but a lot of people were harping on his FT shooting, which has improved to 68.8%. The guy is averaging close to 18 ppg, on a godforsaken team, but you think Poeltl would be doing any better right now? With the speed of the NBA game?
Improvement is obviously part of it, but it is also a combination of skills as a player that lead a person forward to the next level. If you think that Poeltl will be enough of a two-way player to provide more than Ben Simmons, be my guest, but I think their is definite uncertainty towards that being the case. Saying Simmons or Wiggins "lacks a defensive mentality", makes it WAY more black and white than it actually is. For as much as "defensive analytics" paint Wiggins as a poor defender, it is also well known that they do not tell even close to the entire story. Defense is still definitely a grey area, and it has a huge team dynamic that goes along with it. If you watch a Timberwolves game and still feel that he is a poor defender and not asked to play a huge role, than go ahead, but I think your eyes will deceive you.
Ben Simmons has absolute potential to be a stellar defender, plus brings versatility with his quickness and athleticism, not to mention strength. LSU is a horribly undersized and poor rebounding team, he has had to carry quite a load. But, you really think they would have had their world change with Jakob Poeltl instead of Ben Simmons? I remain skeptical. Also remain skeptical as to whether I would rather have Patrick Patterson as opposed to Tristan Thompson. I think the Raptors would love to have Trsitan Thompson as a PF upgrade, personally. Even with his not stretching the floor, lets see what Patrick Patterson gives them come play-off time. We know the most memorable thing Kelly Olynyk did last post-season was rip Kevin Love’s shoulder out of the socket.
The Knicks and Timberwolves have "fairly similar records"? New York is 6.5 games back of 8th place, and Minnesota is 11 games back, so again, suit yourself. Guess it makes more sense now than it did as of January 22, 2016, when New York was 22-23 and Minnesota was 13-31. Whatever helps you big up Porzingis, I guess. Wait, and you are telling me you have seen top ranked prospects, ON BAD TEAMS! For years! Well, guys on bad teams tend to have bad +/-. Especially if you play a lot of minutes on bad teams. Still, if your team is not terrible, awful bad, it will likely at least be alright. I just think it is difficult to say that a guy on a bad team, who may be waiting to rebuild for a while is not a "winning player". Which is an argument you seem to try to make. They may not be a "franchise player" or a "revolutionary player" or even an "All-Star player". But, some of the guys with positive +/- are "role players". They may even play it to a T, but they are not necessarily better players than some of the guys on losing teams who have yet to find the right pieces to stay above water.
Still, name me all of these draft prospects who are "losing players", whose +/- stays stagnant for years? I find that as players get better, or teams get better, generally their +/- improves as well. Plus, saying James Harden is an average NBA player is something I think many NBA teams would like to have an issue with. Not to mention, when going off on Rondo, what did you think of him when he was actually a Celtic? Either way, will Poeltl "two way play" make him better than someone who provides as much skill as a Ben Simmons? Plus, seeing you did not read what Jon Tjarks wrote, are you so sure that Poeltl is the defender that you think he is? Do you watch him play, or are you just blown away by the numbers and highlights? Because as someone who has watched him play quite a bit, I have my doubts as to him being worth a #2 pick. Or, as you seem to claim, fighting for the Naismith or #1 pick. All I know is, Oregon beat them twice, our center weighs all of a buck 95 and Dillon Brooks put dude on skates. Poeltl is playing very well, but to say that will make him NBA ready, or takes away some of the things that make other prospects possibly better draft picks, still is not necessarily the case. Even with his PER.
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- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 1:43pm #1044884
CasualCeltThanks for responding. I wish you posted more.
I’m flattered that you’ve absorbed so much of my MVP-level basketball philosophy.
It should do nothing but enhance the quality and reputation of draft.net, especially when you guys put Poeltl in the top four before the other mock drafts do.
Because surely you’ll eventually see that Poeltl didn’t just have one good game against USC. He’s been on a legendary streak for 9 games or so, in conference.
Not all players develop at the same rate, and bigs usually take longer to develop.
Yes, Poeltl is currently playing better offensively than Jahlil as a freshman.
The only difference is that Okafor made a better first impression by being great from day 1.
Jumping to conclusions based on the first impression of super-polished freshmen is how a lot of draft mistakes get made.
D’Angelo Russell? Super-polished and made a big first impression as a frosh. Draft mistake. Actually regressed over his freshman season, especially against real conference competition.
Jahlil? Big first impression, came into college super-polished. Lack of athleticism will always limit his ceiling greatly. Draft mistake.
Ben Simmons? Super-polished, big first impression as a freshman. Hasn’t improved on anything over the course of the season. FT shooting regressing sharply.
Not every kid gets world class youth coaching starting at 5 years old.
Any discussion of future upside should look first at the Rate of Current Improvement.
Poeltl is simply on another trajectory from most of these guys.
And the change is happening so quickly you just haven’t let it sink in that Poeltl has surpassed Okafor as a prospect, and perhaps even as a scorer.
+/- is very useful when used to compare players on teams that win roughly the same % of games.
That’s why I think it’s fairly safe to compare Porzingis to Towns, because the Knicks and Wolves has somewhat similar records.
PPaterson plays on an elite team with an elite record, so while the +/- stat isn’t perfect, you could still use it to compare Patterson to TThompson, for example.
But time and time again I’ve seen highly hyped prospects do nothing to help their team’s +/- at the NBA level, for years, while people still hype them up, along with hyping their empty stats.
Wiggins’ supposed defensive talent was all based on theoretical potential, and nothing to do with Wiggins actual defensive ability, or his mentality.
If I was looking for defensive mentality, Wiggins would be clearly below average. As is his defense, still.
Does Ben Simmons have a defensive mentality? Does he grind when the going gets tough? Hell no.
Same with DRussell. If he ever averages 20 ppg he’ll still probably only be an average player because of his defense.
Two-way ability is always slept on and underappreciated in draft circles. Defensive potential is always just assumed of any pretty boy who puts up offensive stats in college.
Just look at James Harden as an example of a diva who scores like an MVP, but who is still an average NBA player overall.
Poeltl and Ingram (and Brown) have that two way ability/potential.
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- Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:44pm #1044862
Hype MachineThis thread is solid gold
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 12:44pm #1044725
Hype MachineThis thread is solid gold
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:51pm #1044765
nill650Participantpoetl must be really good since there is only one person defending him… err wait till he gets to the league then we’ll see how good he really is. I think he is capable of being a starter in year one on a rebuild team,but that aint saying much considering heild for example could be a starter on a contender by the all star break.
its never just about readiness or current skillset is it. ingram and simmons are far more likely but less guaranteed to be stars in the nba than poetl or hield are guaranteed to be starters, so it really just depends on who has the pick none of this other melarchy really matters.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 02/25/2016 - 3:51pm #1044902
nill650Participantpoetl must be really good since there is only one person defending him… err wait till he gets to the league then we’ll see how good he really is. I think he is capable of being a starter in year one on a rebuild team,but that aint saying much considering heild for example could be a starter on a contender by the all star break.
its never just about readiness or current skillset is it. ingram and simmons are far more likely but less guaranteed to be stars in the nba than poetl or hield are guaranteed to be starters, so it really just depends on who has the pick none of this other melarchy really matters.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 02/26/2016 - 9:20am #1045063
CasualCelt - Posted on: Fri, 02/26/2016 - 9:20am #1044927
CasualCelt - AuthorPosts
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