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- Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:01pm #60698
tblazer_NZParticipantLast night a thought popped into my head about no.8 picks in the draft so I went to Wikipedia to look at recent drafts. As I was going through the drafts I made a list of the top 14 draft picks all the way back to 1994 and in that time the no.8 and no.12 picks in the NBA draft had never made it to an AllStar game. The no.9 and 10 picks have had quite a lot of success with both pick each having being at least being selected to an allstar game in 7/18 of the draft I noted.from 1994 to 2012.
The no.8 pick was last selected to an allstar game in 1993 and the no.12 pick last in 1981. This is quite interesting. For the sake of Stanley Johnson and Trey Lyles that this trend doesn’t continue.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:09pm #995856
Reptilian MonkParticipantI’d like Winslow at 10 making an All Star team for sure over Kaminsky if that stat holds true.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:09pm #995712
Reptilian MonkParticipantI’d like Winslow at 10 making an All Star team for sure over Kaminsky if that stat holds true.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:12pm #995858
trelos6ParticipantYou’re using a logical fallacy with your statement.
Just because picks 8/12 have not yielded an All Star game doesn’t mean anything.
I’d say typically there are 5 guys who are touted as All-Star type players. They are drafted 1-5 and of those on average 2 or 3 might become solid pros.
For picks 6-15, on average 2 or 3 of those will become solid pros. Just because on a few occasions those picks were 9 and 10 doesn’t mean anything.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:12pm #995714
trelos6ParticipantYou’re using a logical fallacy with your statement.
Just because picks 8/12 have not yielded an All Star game doesn’t mean anything.
I’d say typically there are 5 guys who are touted as All-Star type players. They are drafted 1-5 and of those on average 2 or 3 might become solid pros.
For picks 6-15, on average 2 or 3 of those will become solid pros. Just because on a few occasions those picks were 9 and 10 doesn’t mean anything.
0- Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:22pm #995864
King CaluchaParticipanthttp://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Past events cannot influence the future, but it’s a good point to determine an average expected return for the picks.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:22pm #995720
King CaluchaParticipanthttp://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Past events cannot influence the future, but it’s a good point to determine an average expected return for the picks.
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- Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:25pm #995866
Robb_CParticipantTrelos calm down dude.. What he was doing was just breaking down the recent drafts to its least common denominator and finding trends… Stock Brokers make millions doing this type of research, its not logical fallacy if its history buddy.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:25pm #995722
Robb_CParticipantTrelos calm down dude.. What he was doing was just breaking down the recent drafts to its least common denominator and finding trends… Stock Brokers make millions doing this type of research, its not logical fallacy if its history buddy.
0- Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 8:05am #995861
Magic JordanParticipantNot exactly an apple to apple comparison. There is too much noise in this model to have any relevance in future predictions. I.E no player is the same as another.
It’s a great statistic to look back on to say whether the right pick was made, or even for our own entertainment. But statistically speaking it carries no weight with what this year or future years number 8 picks will do. Even though we hate this term in Math the lack of all star success is more of a coincidence than any empirical evidence towards future success.
A different math model would be needed for that, which is still a dream of mine to create.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 8:05am #996005
Magic JordanParticipantNot exactly an apple to apple comparison. There is too much noise in this model to have any relevance in future predictions. I.E no player is the same as another.
It’s a great statistic to look back on to say whether the right pick was made, or even for our own entertainment. But statistically speaking it carries no weight with what this year or future years number 8 picks will do. Even though we hate this term in Math the lack of all star success is more of a coincidence than any empirical evidence towards future success.
A different math model would be needed for that, which is still a dream of mine to create.
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- Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:51pm #995870
tblazer_NZParticipantCalm down, I’m not saying it is a prediction. I am just surprised how bad they have been in general. No.8 and 12 picks have every chance of being good. Numbers 11,13 and 14 all have only been allstars once in the mentioned time frame(Klay Thompson,Kobe and Peja).
0 - Posted on: Sun, 06/28/2015 - 7:51pm #995726
tblazer_NZParticipantCalm down, I’m not saying it is a prediction. I am just surprised how bad they have been in general. No.8 and 12 picks have every chance of being good. Numbers 11,13 and 14 all have only been allstars once in the mentioned time frame(Klay Thompson,Kobe and Peja).
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 3:09am #995955
Ahkasi ClayParticipantthanks for making me feel old
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 3:09am #995811
Ahkasi ClayParticipantthanks for making me feel old
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 6:19am #995847
Bed HeadParticipantEspecially since Winslow is a much better player than Johnson, anyways. Also, based on past history, the Lakers would have been luckier (lottery-wise) finishing 3rd or 4th.
Sadly, "12" is my all-time favorite number, too. Particularly for purposes of exaggeration (i.e. "What are you, like, 12-years-old?!" or "The party totally blew … like, 12 people showed up!").
Most high-rise buildings here (including the one I live in) don’t have a 13th floor. Well, I mean, they have one obviously, but it’s listed as the 14th. (Which is so super stupid, imo.)
At any rate, my point (I think) is … numbers can’t hurt you unless you let them.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 6:19am #995991
Bed HeadParticipantEspecially since Winslow is a much better player than Johnson, anyways. Also, based on past history, the Lakers would have been luckier (lottery-wise) finishing 3rd or 4th.
Sadly, "12" is my all-time favorite number, too. Particularly for purposes of exaggeration (i.e. "What are you, like, 12-years-old?!" or "The party totally blew … like, 12 people showed up!").
Most high-rise buildings here (including the one I live in) don’t have a 13th floor. Well, I mean, they have one obviously, but it’s listed as the 14th. (Which is so super stupid, imo.)
At any rate, my point (I think) is … numbers can’t hurt you unless you let them.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 11:24am #995927
Memphis MadnessParticipantThe 2nd pick seems to WAY underperform other high picks. A draft is as likely to have a big star at 3, 4, or 5 than 2.
The 2nd pick is more likely to be one of the more dubious picks in the draft. Other than Durant, the second pick has been underwhelming at the very least.
Is it because at 1 obviously try to go for the Grand Slam. So, at 2 you still think the same way — but it ain’t the same pitch…
At 3-5, teams might make a better assessment of what they need and the talent that is left on the board.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 06/29/2015 - 11:24am #996071
Memphis MadnessParticipantThe 2nd pick seems to WAY underperform other high picks. A draft is as likely to have a big star at 3, 4, or 5 than 2.
The 2nd pick is more likely to be one of the more dubious picks in the draft. Other than Durant, the second pick has been underwhelming at the very least.
Is it because at 1 obviously try to go for the Grand Slam. So, at 2 you still think the same way — but it ain’t the same pitch…
At 3-5, teams might make a better assessment of what they need and the talent that is left on the board.
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