wwhen was the last time a top 3 pick mock draft a year in advance played out that way???

Lebron James…2003 and Greg Oden 2005…

Brandon Jennings was supposed to go really high too.

Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor kind of.

Rose went up in his one season in college, Durant solidified himself as the top player in 07, so that isn’t entirely true.

If was no doubt he was predicted 1st. He is such a good athlete, a 10 year old could have picked him.

I never take the mock drafts seriously a year in advance. In fact, if it was’nt for the chatting on here, I probably would’nt visit this site, or any other draft sites, until close to the end of the next college season.

You just said that players who are high school seniors don’t move up the draft board if they go to college for a year, and that is wrong. That is why I posted my Rose and Durant thing.

Josh Huetis: Your statement is completely untrue. Many high school stars have great freshman seasons and are drafted higher than initially thought. This is why there are so many one and dones. There are multitude of examples of players that greatly improved there draft status
1. Tyreke Evans- 2009 (4th)
2. Derrick Rose-2008 (1st)
3. Kevin Love-2008 (5th)
4. Anthony Randolph- 2008 (14th)
5. J.J. Hickson-2008 (19th)
6. Mike Conley Jr 2007 (4th)
7. Spencer Hawes 2007 (10th)
8. Tyrus Thomas 2006 (4th)
9. Marvin Williams 2005 (2nd)

These are only the clear obvious ones. They are also many borderline canidates which I think atleast slightly enhanced their value. Kevin Durant, Thaddeus Young, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon

Makes the same point I do, just with way more evidence and explains it better.

“not sure why people arent realizing this but the freshman always drop once they play a season in college because there flaws are exposed…they are almost flawless when they are in highschool but once they get to college where the playing feild gets a lil more even it starts to come out” We are responding to this, not the topic above. Wow.

Well to that all I can say is, what else can they do? If they are in the top 3 of course they won’t go up because you they are at the top so they can either stay the same or drop. More likely drop because other people will have surprise big seasons, like Johny Flynn this year.

I have no idea where he was ranked.

It is far in advance. If you want to wait, that is fine. Chill out dude, things change, we know, the top 3 rarely play out that way, but Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were 1/2 a year in advance. LeBron, Darko and Melo were most likely 1-3 a year in advance. I think a lot of people thought D-Rose, Beasley and Mayo would be 1-3, and Griffin was at the top of this draft for quite a while. So, it does not always play out that way, but did you only do one final, mock draft? Did anyone? Things change, teams change and mock drafts are always changing. It is why they are fake drafts and not real drafts, but, thank you for your point. Changed my perspectives on sh!t.

Mayo was billed as an instant franchise changing super stars and a lock to be a future first pick in high school? Same with Greg Monroe, Renardo Sidney, and Jeremy Tyler. Now all three of those are very unlikely

You can never go by a mock before the season because of the lottery system. The 2007 draft was very close though.

Take a look at this websites 2010 mock draft…..I am willing to bet $ that at least 5 players currently in the top 10 don’t go in the top 10.

just to give an example of why mock drafts are so dumb……draftexpress has Lance Stephenson & Renardo Sidney going very late in the 2nd round of their 2010 mock draft….. hahahah that isn’t going to happen

While I am guessing that you are very right Gatorheels, they do both kind of remind me on first look of Derrick Caracter and Lenny Cooke respectively. They seem to be bigger and stronger than the pair, plus Lance going to college seems to be a good choice, as does Renardo picking a school where he will play against SEC comp, but you have to admit they look the part. Derrick Caracter came on the scene as a gigantic 9th grader and was thought to be a can’t miss center prospect, but he missed. He even took it to Greg Oden in HS, but did very little at Louisville. Renardo came on the scene at the same time, taking it to older players, but lots of questions about his desire to get better, his weight and his progression (like Derrick Caracter). Also, Lance came onto the scene reminding many of Lenny Cooke with his highly developed body for his age (although Lenny was 30 in high school, jokes) but people worried about his continued development and even his athleticism as while it was great for a high school level player, it is quite average to below average for someone in the NBA. I would have Renardo in my lottery right now and Lance in my first round, but these mocks will change so much and really should not be judged as anything more than a list of players who might be drafted next year. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see what happens to Renardo and Lance. I do not know where Derrick Caracter is at, but I do know Lenny never cracked a roster and played on a team called Purefoods TJ Hotdogs. While I have seen some at this site call him “The GOAT”, I have a hard time believing that as I remember that when LeBron was I believe a sophomore and Lenny was a senior, LeBron outscored him 25-9 in a summer camp game, plus scored the game winner. When Lance played OJ Mayo, he similarly got destroyed so I heard, kind a reverse LeBron/Lenny thing. I wish much success to Renardo and Lance, but these mocks are always crazy. Chris Taft held down the number 1 spot here for a while, the same season he got picked at 42. Nemanja Aleksandrov, Kosta Perovic, Maciej Lampe, if you have been coming to this site a long time, you know what I am saying. Drafts change drastically and mock drafts are generally just for fun, rather than a serious prediction.