Can anyone remember a trade that has the potential to be so varied in its results?

This topic contains 16 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by Ghost01 12 years, 6 months ago.

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Posted on: Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:12pm #53284

Scott42444
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The Bulls just traded Luol Deng for Andrew Bynum and potentially 3 draft picks (and a pick swap). I can’t remember the last time I was so mixed in my feelings of a trade. But, I think the reason is this trade has A LOT of variables that can drastically alter what each team receives.
Cleveland basically added an All-Star for nothing. Deng is a real two way player but doesn’t demand the ball to be productive on offense and compared to Bynum (who had an affair with an assistant coaches wife) can be a great locker room gut. They didn’t give up any player who plays for them and didn’t give up any of their own picks. There are three very minor drawbacks to this trade from a Cavs perspective. One, if the Cavs miss the playoffs they will probably JUST miss them. Adding Deng will give them a worse pick but he would not, in this scenario, help their young guys get some playoff experience. They miss out on a Top 7 pick in a year you want Top 7. The other two minute negatives are that Deng is an unrestricted free agent, and also he had played alot of minutes the part few seasons and had been injured quite a bit this season. If Deng succumbs to these bnagging injuries and is out for the year they basically made the trade for nothing.

The Bulls, on the other hand, have a wider range of possible outcomes both negative and positive.
Best case scenario: Sacramento gotta on an absolute tear and finishes as the last team out of the playoffs. The Bulls get the #13 pick from Sacramento in the 2014 draft. Charlotte cools off A’s gets awarded the #11 pick, which the Bulls get. The Bulls are much worse without their All-Star workhorse Deng and with a little lottery luck finish in the Top 5 picks of 2014. They can use their plethora of picks to get one of the future All-Stars available in the 2014 draft. The Trailblazers get worse the next 2 seasons and the Bulls add 2 2nd Rounders in upcoming drafts in the 30’s. After using the amnesty clause on Carlos Boozer, the Bulls bring Nikola Mirotic over as a 22-year old European MVP and combine him with whichever free agent they sign with their MAX salary cap room and their stud draft pick (a recent article states Carmelo has Chicago on his short list of he opts out of his Knicks contract). Derrick Rose makes a full recovery and the Bulls are legit title contenders with both current and future All-star caliber players after only one year of missing the playoffs in awhile.
Worst Case – The 1st round pick from Sacramento never gets used and is extinguished after 2017. Both 2nd Rounders from Portland are in the 50’s and do not result in the Bulls drafting players who make their roster. As it was in pay off-seasons, no marquee free agents join Chicago and they use their cap space on 2nd tier fringe all-stars (see: Boozer, Carlos). Derrick Rose is never the same player he was and takes up 1/3 of their cap space under the Rose rule and the Bulls cannot use their amnesty as it was already used for Boozer. Mirotic stays in Europe and signs a lucrative extension with his Spanish League team. The Bulls traded the (most likely) only available All-Star and their best defender on the perimeter for 2 2nd rounders in the 50’s. Reinsdorf loves the cap savings, which is understandable for a team not on pace to compete this year, but attempting to get under the luxury tax (on a franchise ranked in the Top 4 most valuable in the NBA) hampers Gar Forman’s ability to maximize Deng’s trade value and we learn later he passed up a better offer that included a future young all-star. Also, the Bulls didn’t get the memo to tank and end up with the 7th seed in the playoffs (which is possible on a well coached and very good defensive team). They draft two future roleplayers for a team stuck in basketball Hell (late lotto, low playoff seeding).

Anyway, as a Bulls fan it’s easy to understand this trade but hard to really love it. There is a good chance the Bulls capitalize on a decent free agent market and wouldn’t have resigned Deng anyway. Avoiding ANY chance at losing some MLE money by becoming repeat offenders on the luxury tax is a smart move and any asset is better than letting Deng walk for nothing. It just seems to be a typical salary dump for a very good player, whom the Bulls avoided trading for Garnett, Gasol, and Kobe over the years. I can’t remember a trade that could be so varied based on things outside of the front office’s control.

What do you guys think?

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Posted on: Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:18pm #860499

Scott42444
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The Bulls can swap picks with the Cavs in 2015 (lotto protection). It’s not super significant unless the Bulls have a high 20’s pick and the Cavs are around 15. But, and I am looking for confirmation on this, but I read on CBSSports that it can be traded. So, a team with championship aspirations might give up a young asset for that. If true, it could be valuable. Our, if the Cavs miss the playoffs it could be worthless. Another variable that will only be determined as an asset down the road.
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Posted on: Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:18pm #860605

Scott42444
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The Bulls can swap picks with the Cavs in 2015 (lotto protection). It’s not super significant unless the Bulls have a high 20’s pick and the Cavs are around 15. But, and I am looking for confirmation on this, but I read on CBSSports that it can be traded. So, a team with championship aspirations might give up a young asset for that. If true, it could be valuable. Our, if the Cavs miss the playoffs it could be worthless. Another variable that will only be determined as an asset down the road.
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 12:31am #860506

Anton123
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Well, the trades that got Nash and Howard to LA had the potential to make them a championship contender and we know how that turned out.
That’s pretty "varied".
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 12:31am #860612

Anton123
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Well, the trades that got Nash and Howard to LA had the potential to make them a championship contender and we know how that turned out.
That’s pretty "varied".
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 5:11am #860531

Moon River
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As you correctly point out, only time will tell when we know how these picks shake out. I reluctantly like the move for the Bulls. It is just a tired typical money saving move by Reinsdorf, but they will spin it (and it is valid) that they did indeed get something for Deng. Someone will over pay for Deng.
Wojo also reported that Deng’s camp turned down a 3 year extension for $30M last week. So more public relations fodder they can use to keep the fan base appeased, for the time being anyway.
You are also correct in the Mirotic situation. There is no guaranty that he is coming stateside and the Bulls are in a full court press to make sure he does.
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- Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 11:24am #860760
  
  Scott42444
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  In all fairness, and I know that Reinsdorf gets alot of heat for this, but the luxury tax penalties aren’t just money related anymore. You can get hampered with the loss of the full MLE if you are a repeat offender. Also, and this shouldn’t be so much of a factor with such a money making franchise like the Bulls, but when Boozer is amnestied they will save cap space but still have to pay him. I can imagine that being a sore subject for an owner. Paying someone to play for someone else isn’t ideal and this will probably ease the pressure on the front office for basically flushing millions down the toilet.
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- Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 11:24am #860655
  
  Scott42444
  Participant
  In all fairness, and I know that Reinsdorf gets alot of heat for this, but the luxury tax penalties aren’t just money related anymore. You can get hampered with the loss of the full MLE if you are a repeat offender. Also, and this shouldn’t be so much of a factor with such a money making franchise like the Bulls, but when Boozer is amnestied they will save cap space but still have to pay him. I can imagine that being a sore subject for an owner. Paying someone to play for someone else isn’t ideal and this will probably ease the pressure on the front office for basically flushing millions down the toilet.
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 5:11am #860636

Moon River
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As you correctly point out, only time will tell when we know how these picks shake out. I reluctantly like the move for the Bulls. It is just a tired typical money saving move by Reinsdorf, but they will spin it (and it is valid) that they did indeed get something for Deng. Someone will over pay for Deng.
Wojo also reported that Deng’s camp turned down a 3 year extension for $30M last week. So more public relations fodder they can use to keep the fan base appeased, for the time being anyway.
You are also correct in the Mirotic situation. There is no guaranty that he is coming stateside and the Bulls are in a full court press to make sure he does.
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 9:35am #860731

TheArtistPaysthePrice
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Because this is the last day to trade Bynum the Cavs have to waive the physical for Deng as does the Bulls for Bynum. What if Deng needs another spinal tap or some crazy procedure and can’t play? The Cavs have his Bird rights for the future but Deng is injury prone and anytime a guy has achilles problems anything can happen. Even then the Cavs came out like bandits, I would give the Bulls the right to swap non lottery first rounders for Deng’s Bird Rights alone, even better his services this year and his Bird Rights.
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 9:35am #860625

TheArtistPaysthePrice
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Because this is the last day to trade Bynum the Cavs have to waive the physical for Deng as does the Bulls for Bynum. What if Deng needs another spinal tap or some crazy procedure and can’t play? The Cavs have his Bird rights for the future but Deng is injury prone and anytime a guy has achilles problems anything can happen. Even then the Cavs came out like bandits, I would give the Bulls the right to swap non lottery first rounders for Deng’s Bird Rights alone, even better his services this year and his Bird Rights.
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 10:13am #860747

ball4life23
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The Cavs didn’t trade any of there own picks, they traded the rights to picks they got from other teams and got a really solid player. That Sacramento pick would have maybe been a 1st round pick, Sacramento will be top 10 this year and unless they get one of these superstars and immediately become good and leave the top 10 for the next years draft, that becomes a 2nd round pick. If Cavs can get Luol Deng to resign it was a good move, otherwise i still don’t think it hurts them that much since they already have enough average players on there team I don’t think they need more. They will still probably end up in the late top 10 with a good pick.
As for the Bulls, this may be the start of them tanking, which is what they SHOULD do. They get more picks for the future and another 2nd round pick for this draft (and with all the talent in this draft, that could be a good player). If they can get a high pick then they can just add another superstar around Derrick Rose and make a serious playoff run.
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 10:13am #860641

ball4life23
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The Cavs didn’t trade any of there own picks, they traded the rights to picks they got from other teams and got a really solid player. That Sacramento pick would have maybe been a 1st round pick, Sacramento will be top 10 this year and unless they get one of these superstars and immediately become good and leave the top 10 for the next years draft, that becomes a 2nd round pick. If Cavs can get Luol Deng to resign it was a good move, otherwise i still don’t think it hurts them that much since they already have enough average players on there team I don’t think they need more. They will still probably end up in the late top 10 with a good pick.
As for the Bulls, this may be the start of them tanking, which is what they SHOULD do. They get more picks for the future and another 2nd round pick for this draft (and with all the talent in this draft, that could be a good player). If they can get a high pick then they can just add another superstar around Derrick Rose and make a serious playoff run.
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- Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 12:56pm #860677
  
  Scott42444
  Participant
  …is a hard thing to even fathom. The front office of Gar/Pax will probably have to pull a "Moneyball", which (if you either read the book or like me saw the movie) means that they will have to basically take the Bulls best players away for the remainder of the season so that they cannot compete for the remainder of 2013-2014 season. It is the smartest move. Basically, and I have heard quite a few moronic callers on Chicago sports talk radio today, this is a special draft. Going "all in" on an NBA Draft is not going to be the answer to a team’s prayers. Getting a high lottery pick in a draft that has multiple All-Stars (potentially) available outside of the Top 5, another pick in the teens (Charlotte pick), bringing over the best European asset (according to the ESPN GM poll, Mirotic was #1 with 25% of the vote), AND bringing in a NEAR MAX or max contract player in the off-season (anywhere from Carmelo Anthony to Gordon Hayward to Chicago product Evan Turner, although Turner and Rose apparently hate each other dating back to high school) is VERY smart. Pairing those players with Rose and Noah (two all-stars, and yes I believe Rose will be back to elite status but will ALWAYS be an injury risk) and a solid core of Gibson, Butler, and Snell means that in a VERY weak Eastern Conference the Bulls could vault themselves to title contenders for a much longer window than they were yesterday.
  I agree with you that the front office needs to allow the Bulls to tank. But, not everyone feels that way in Chicago. I heard another person on the radio today call in and complain that Robinson and Bellinelli weren’t on the team still. Anyone who says they are mad that the Bulls don’t have Nate Robinson still to get to the 2nd round again is NBA stupid. This draft and free agent class is good enough to make a couple shrewd moves and not have to "rebuild".
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- Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 12:56pm #860782
  
  Scott42444
  Participant
  …is a hard thing to even fathom. The front office of Gar/Pax will probably have to pull a "Moneyball", which (if you either read the book or like me saw the movie) means that they will have to basically take the Bulls best players away for the remainder of the season so that they cannot compete for the remainder of 2013-2014 season. It is the smartest move. Basically, and I have heard quite a few moronic callers on Chicago sports talk radio today, this is a special draft. Going "all in" on an NBA Draft is not going to be the answer to a team’s prayers. Getting a high lottery pick in a draft that has multiple All-Stars (potentially) available outside of the Top 5, another pick in the teens (Charlotte pick), bringing over the best European asset (according to the ESPN GM poll, Mirotic was #1 with 25% of the vote), AND bringing in a NEAR MAX or max contract player in the off-season (anywhere from Carmelo Anthony to Gordon Hayward to Chicago product Evan Turner, although Turner and Rose apparently hate each other dating back to high school) is VERY smart. Pairing those players with Rose and Noah (two all-stars, and yes I believe Rose will be back to elite status but will ALWAYS be an injury risk) and a solid core of Gibson, Butler, and Snell means that in a VERY weak Eastern Conference the Bulls could vault themselves to title contenders for a much longer window than they were yesterday.
  I agree with you that the front office needs to allow the Bulls to tank. But, not everyone feels that way in Chicago. I heard another person on the radio today call in and complain that Robinson and Bellinelli weren’t on the team still. Anyone who says they are mad that the Bulls don’t have Nate Robinson still to get to the 2nd round again is NBA stupid. This draft and free agent class is good enough to make a couple shrewd moves and not have to "rebuild".
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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 2:39pm #860697

Ghost01
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The thing is…the Bulls really didn’t lose much. Deng is a FREE AGENT. That is what gets lost here. So when Cleveland gets the 7 seed, gets annihilated by Miami, and Deng signs with Houston this summer, what will the deal look like then? What are honestly the odds he resigns with this team? They will be courting LeBron who plays his position, and they are far from contention.
For the Bulls, its almost tanking by default. Suddenly Dunleavy, Gibson, and Hinrich are on different rosters. Suddenly Noah is hurt. Suddenly the Knicks, Nets, and Cavs are DESPERATELY making playoff pushes.
The Bulls will finish with a top 8 or 9 worst record this year.
You grab that guy, hopefully grab a player with Charlotte’s pick in the 11-16 range, and get at the very least two solid role players, with probably one potential long term starter.
You have extra money to sign Mirotic, and you still have the core of Rose, Butler, and Noah.
Now is the tricky part, free agency. According to Zach Lowe they should have at least 10 mil to spend this summer, and you could offer Lance Stephenson a 4 year, 42 million dollar contract or something, and be right back to fielding a super balanced and talented starting 5, with much younger players. Stephenson is a pipe dream, but it is not totally unrealistic, and when has a team ever been able to sign players of Stephenson and Mirotic’s caliber to FA deals under the age of 25? On top of two top 15 picks? I know this is a best case scenario, but its a quick rebuild, and a good one. And that’s before we even take into consideration the future picks they are getting.

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Posted on: Tue, 01/07/2014 - 2:39pm #860802

Ghost01
Participant
The thing is…the Bulls really didn’t lose much. Deng is a FREE AGENT. That is what gets lost here. So when Cleveland gets the 7 seed, gets annihilated by Miami, and Deng signs with Houston this summer, what will the deal look like then? What are honestly the odds he resigns with this team? They will be courting LeBron who plays his position, and they are far from contention.
For the Bulls, its almost tanking by default. Suddenly Dunleavy, Gibson, and Hinrich are on different rosters. Suddenly Noah is hurt. Suddenly the Knicks, Nets, and Cavs are DESPERATELY making playoff pushes.
The Bulls will finish with a top 8 or 9 worst record this year.
You grab that guy, hopefully grab a player with Charlotte’s pick in the 11-16 range, and get at the very least two solid role players, with probably one potential long term starter.
You have extra money to sign Mirotic, and you still have the core of Rose, Butler, and Noah.
Now is the tricky part, free agency. According to Zach Lowe they should have at least 10 mil to spend this summer, and you could offer Lance Stephenson a 4 year, 42 million dollar contract or something, and be right back to fielding a super balanced and talented starting 5, with much younger players. Stephenson is a pipe dream, but it is not totally unrealistic, and when has a team ever been able to sign players of Stephenson and Mirotic’s caliber to FA deals under the age of 25? On top of two top 15 picks? I know this is a best case scenario, but its a quick rebuild, and a good one. And that’s before we even take into consideration the future picks they are getting.

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