NBA Draft Insider Help: Rankink the past 20 Number 1 Picks based on Hype

On Thursday, June 28, at around 7 p.m. ET, the New Orleans Hornets will make Kentucky big man Anthony Davis the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NBA draft.

This year Davis is the consensus No. 1 overall pick and many general managers and NBA scouts believe he has the chance to be an NBA superstar with his combination of size, athleticism, defensive prowess and emerging offensive skills.

The comps on the high end include everyone from Tim Duncan to Kevin Garnett. The low end looks like Marcus Camby. In short, there’s no question that Davis is not only a worthy No. 1 overall pick, but he will be an elite one. Not every draft, nor every No. 1 pick, is created equal, however.

So here’s the criteria for the rankings below: If all of the No. 1 overall picks in the past 20 years had come out in the same year, based on how they were perceived at the time (and not the careers they’ve gone on to so far), in what order would they be drafted?

I’ve covered the draft since 1996 and have a good handle on how various No. 1 overall picks were perceived at the time of the draft. I also spent the past week talking to NBA GMs and scouts to get their take on it, especially on several of the older No. 1 picks. Here’s what I’ve come up with:

Top No. 1 overall picks past 20 years

How they’d be drafted based on information at the time, if all in one class

1. LeBron James, G/F, St. Vincent-St. Mary High School
Drafted No. 1 by the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003

There has never been, nor do I think there will ever be, more buzz about a potential No. 1 pick than there was with James. By the start of his senior year of high school, the 2003 NBA draft was already being dubbed the "LeBron draft." Teams, including his hometown Cavs, tanked to get him. The media coverage about James was off the charts all year. Analysts said he was the best basketball prospect since Michael Jordan. When he was drafted by the Cavs, everyone thought James was a complete franchise-changer and future Hall of Famer. For the most part, he’s lived up to the hype. All that stands in his way is an NBA title. As I write this, he’s one win away from finally silencing his critics.

2. Tim Duncan, C, Wake Forest
Drafted No. 1 by the San Antonio Spurs in 1997

NBA teams worship big men and Duncan looked like the perfect big. He played a full four years at Wake Forest. He dominated the college game. He was not only tall and athletic, but incredibly skilled. His stoic demeanor and no-frills game took away some of the sizzle, but everyone thought Duncan was a player who could single-handedly change a franchise. When the Spurs won the lottery, teams like the 76ers and Celtics were devastated. Duncan was only walking through one door, and it was in San Antonio to play alongside David Robinson. Duncan lived up to the hype and then some. He’s been the most successful No. 1 pick in the past 20 years. Given the company, that’s saying something.

3. Chris Webber, PF, Michigan
Drafted No. 1 by the Orlando Magic in 1993

Webber’s high-profile part as the leader of the "Fab Five," combined with a perfect combination of NBA size, basketball IQ (the infamous no-timeout incident notwithstanding) athleticism and skill made him one of the three most coveted prospects in the past two decades. Ironically, he was the only player on this list to be traded on draft day. The Magic had won the lottery the year before and taken Shaquille O’Neal. Feeling that they really needed to pair him with a guard they swapped picks with the Warriors and Webber never wore a Magic uniform. He had a very successful NBA career, but never quite lived up to the hype that surrounded him before the draft. He was a five-time All-Star but never the superstar NBA GMs and scouts thought he’d be.

4. Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
Drafted No. 1 by the Portland Trail Blazers in 2007

Much like James, Oden attracted a cult following as a freshman in high school. By the time he reached Ohio State, it had reached a fever pitch. Oden’s freshman season for the Buckeyes was just so-so thanks to a wrist injury, but by the end of the year he had Ohio State in the national championship game and NBA GMs were comparing him to the next Bill Russell or Wilt Chamberlain. Oden was so good that every single GM I spoke with before the draft said they’d take him over Texas scoring superstar Kevin Durant. Alas, Oden injured himself before he ever played a game in the NBA, ended up having three different surgeries and played a total of 82 games in his first five seasons in the NBA. While he’s still trying to make a comeback, he is, for now, the highest-profile bust in the past two decades in the NBA.

5. Yao Ming, C, China
Drafted No. 1 by the Houston Rockets in 2002

The intrigue around Yao Ming almost matched that of James. Huge media contingents followed him everywhere and fans throughout the world cheered for the 7-foot-6 Chinese giant. Scouts were always a little more tempered about him as a player. They all thought he would be good, but there was a lot of debate about how good. There were also questions about his real age and whether his commitments to the Chinese national team would burn him out. Yao turned out to be a great NBA center, but the concerns also ended up being well warranted. Yao retired in 2011 after just eight seasons in the NBA.

6. Anthony Davis, F/C, Kentucky
Will be drafted No. 1 by the New Orleans Hornets in 2012

Placing Davis on this list is particularly hard. But a few things warrant him going this high. First, only one other player below him was the consensus No. 1 pick. And there have been just seven of those in the past 20 years. Two, Davis’ size, athletic ability, skill set and the fact he won a national championship as a freshman have all created a narrative that he could be a combination of Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett. If that’s even close to true, we might have him too low.

7. Allen Iverson, G, Georgetown
Drafted No. 1 by the Philadelphia 76ers in 1996

The No. 1 pick usually goes to big guys, and Iverson remains the smallest No. 1 pick in the past 30 years. What intrigued people was Iverson’s uncanny ability to score the ball from everywhere on the floor. He was fast, acrobatic and fearless. He was also, next to James and Yao, the most marketable No. 1 pick in the past 20 years. Iverson proved to be a great scorer and even got his team to the Finals one year, but his me-first style of play always limited his greatness and eventually pushed him out of the league well before he was ready to retire.

8. Dwight Howard, C, SW Atlanta Christian Academy
Drafted No. 1 by the Orlando Magic in 2004

Howard has always looked like the sort of player God would design if you asked him to build the perfect basketball player. Physically, he is Superman. In retrospect, he was the no-brainer to be the No. 1 pick in 2004. However, at the time, many analysts (even ESPN’s own Bill Simmons) thought UConn’s Emeka Okafor was the better choice. Howard’s less than dominating high school stats, combined with his raw offensive abilities, had many labeling the Magic’s selection as risky while others proclaimed he could be the best true center since Shaq. The latter turned out to be right though Howard has never quite had the complete game (nor any rings) to live up to Shaq’s legacy.

9. Elton Brand, PF, Duke
Drafted No. 1 by the Chicago Bulls in 1999

There was very little sizzle in the Bulls’ pick in 1999. However, the Bulls, fresh into their rebuilding effort post Michael Jordan, provided the needed spark that pushed Brand up a few notches. Everyone was interested in who would replace Jordan and Brand got the nod. Brand was, in a way, a sort of default pick in a draft with no clear superstar. His career at Duke certainly showed promise and who can forget Jerry Krause really introducing us to the concept of standing reach by pointing out that Brand had no neck? Brand’s career has been solid. He’s lived up to expectations. But he was never the franchise-changer the Bulls, Clippers or 76ers have needed over the years.

10. Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis
Drafted No. 1 by the Chicago Bulls in 2008

One month before the end of the 2007-08 college season, Rose was in third place in the race to be the No. 1 pick behind Kansas State’s Michael Beasley and USC’s O.J. Mayo. While everyone loved Rose’s athletic ability and NBA body, there were questions about whether he was ready to run an NBA team. His brilliant play down the stretch for Memphis, an NCAA title game appearance and his hometown Bulls winning the lottery sealed the deal for Rose. It was clearly the right call. But no one expected him to win MVP honors by his third season in the NBA. A serious ACL injury suffered at the end of this season leaves his long-term legacy in question, but his first four years in the league were spectacular.

11. Glenn Robinson, F, Purdue
Drafted No. 1 by the Milwaukee Bucks in 1994

"The Big Dog" was the best scorer in college basketball during the 1993-94 season. Robinson’s ability to score inside and outside had NBA teams drooling. But there was a serious debate between Robinson, Cal’s Jason Kidd and Duke’s Grant Hill for the No. 1 pick. Many scouts were concerned that Robinson was too one-dimensional and lacked the elite athletic ability to be a star. Others insisted that his scoring ability would mask any flaws. His critics turned out to be right. Kidd and Hill (even with the injuries) both turned out to be better NBA players.

12. John Wall, PG, Kentucky
Drafted No. 1 by the Washington Wizards in 2010

Wall was a consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, but that might have said more about the 2010 draft than it did about Wall. NBA scouts loved his speed with the ball, leaping ability, defensive toughness and attack mentality. However scouts did have serious questions about Wall’s ability to run the point in the NBA and his shaky jumper. While a handful felt he could be a better prospect than Rose, many weren’t totally sold. So far, his detractors have appeared to be right. Wall’s struggled to run a team and has been wildly inconsistent. But it’s early. If he ever gets it, he has the chance to be special.

13. Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
Drafted No. 1 by the Los Angeles Clippers in 2009

Griffin was a freak athlete with a body builder’s physique coming out of college. He played his butt off, threw himself around the floor and just out-toughed other players in the paint. He, too, was a consensus No. 1 pick, but again, the strength of the draft at the top didn’t blow anyone away and Griffin was seen more as a future All-Star instead of a future superstar. So far Griffin has lived up to expectations. His highlight reel dunks have made him very popular, but he’s been unable to carry a team on his own.

14. Joe Smith, C, Maryland
Drafted No. 1 by the Golden State Warriors in 1995

Smith had a terrific two-year career at Maryland, but he faced very real questions before the draft about his position at the next level. He was too thin to be an effective 4 and not skilled or quick enough to play the 3. The 1995 draft, however, didn’t have a lot of other options. The No. 2 pick, Antonio McDyess, didn’t really rise on draft boards until the NCAA tournament. Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace were the next two guys off the board. Clearly Kevin Garnett was the best player in that draft, but he was also the first high school player to declare for the draft and most scouts and GMs were very unsure how that would go.

15. Kwame Brown, F/C, Glynn Academy High School
Drafted No. 1 by the Washington Wizards in 2001

Brown was a late riser on draft boards and didn’t secure himself as the No. 1 pick until the day before the draft when he worked out one-on-one against Tyson Chandler and destroyed him. Brown went up to Michael Jordan (who was running the Wizards at the time) and told him he would never regret it if Jordan took him. Jordan rolled the dice and immediately regretted it. At the time Brown was seen a as a freak big man with size, athleticism and a soft touch. Had he played a year at Florida, everyone would’ve seen the stone hands and the soft body instead.

16. Andrew Bogut, C, Utah
Drafted No. 1 by the Milwaukee Bucks in 2005

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Mike Hewitt/Getty ImagesAndrew Bogut has probably exceeded expectations, despite his injuries.

Bogut’s inspired play during the 2004-05 college season, combined with his size, got him the nod as the No. 1 pick. But at the time of the draft, it was far from a consensus. Many were championing North Carolina freshman Marvin Williams. Others Wake Forest point guard Chris Paul. Paul turned out, in hindsight, to be the clear choice, but given the parity, the Bucks just rolled the dice for need. No one expected Bogut to be a Hall of Famer. At the time, there were questions about whether he’d even be an All-Star someday. He has probably exceeded expectations in the NBA, though injuries have derailed his career the past two seasons.

17. Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke
Drafted No. 1 by the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2011

The 2011 draft was historically weak. So much so that Irving, who had played a grand total of 11 games in college before injuring himself, ended up becoming somewhat of the default No. 1 pick. Last year, most GMs and scouts thought Irving would be good, but many questioned whether he’d ever make an All-Star team in a stacked Eastern Conference. After a spectacular rookie season, everyone is recalibrating. The draft itself might have been weak, but Irving looks special.

18. Kenyon Martin, PF, Cincinnati
Drafted No. 1 by the New Jersey Nets in 2000

The 2000 NBA draft might go down as the worst draft in the past 20 years. Michael Redd, a second-round pick, turned out to be the best player in the draft. There was no consensus anything leading up to the draft and Martin, who had broken his leg, sort of came out on top by default. He’s had a solid NBA career and lived up to expectations.

19. Andrea Bargnani, F/C, Italy
Drafted No. 1 by the Toronto Raptors in 2006

How weak of a No. 1 pick was Bargnani? When ESPN did the Draft Lottery coverage, our TV draft experts didn’t even have him in the top 10. When I put him No. 1 on the Mock Draft that night, people thought I had lost my mind. I wasn’t in love with Bargnani, but I knew Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo was. In his defense, there wasn’t a clear-cut option there. The other suspects, Texas’ LaMarcus Aldridge, LSU’s Tyrus Thomas and UConn’s Rudy Gay all had issues, too. Bargnani wasn’t a bad pick and he’s had a solid NBA career, but I doubt he ever makes an All-Star team. As crazy as it sounds, in retrospect, the Raptors probably should’ve taken Rajon Rondo No. 1.

20. Michael Olowokandi, C, Pacific
Drafted No. 1 by the Los Angeles Clippers in 1998

I don’t know where to begin on this one other than to say to our younger readers: Yes, the Clippers have been dysfunctional for more than a decade. Olowokandi was big. He had some great workouts. There wasn’t a clear-cut No. 1 (Arizona’s Mike Bibby had the most pub, followed by Kansas’ Paul Pierce, who inexplicably slid to No. 10 on draft night) and the Clippers really wanted a big man. Olowokandi was a reach then and never lived up to the diminutive expectations that were there to begin with.