This topic contains 10 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by 
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- Posted on: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 5:15pm #33803
Mr. BasketballParticipantWith today’s unfortunate lockout news, it’s time to start thinking as if there will not be a 2011-2012 NBA season. If that is the case, how will the NBA lottery be conducted? Well according to Ric Bucher, it will most likely either be "3 seasons aggregated for order, then lottery for worst 14" or "5 seasons aggregated for order, then lottery for worst 14."
If scenario #1 unfolded where it was based on the last 3 seasons, here is what the lottery standings would look like:
1. T-Wolves (Clippers)
2. Kings
3. Wizards
4. Nets
5. Clippers
6. Warriors
7. Raptors
8. Pistons
9. Knicks
10. Pacers
11. 76ers
12. Grizzlies
13. Bobcats
14. BucksIf however it were based off of the last 5 years like scenario #2, the Clippers would then jump from #5 to #3 and the Timberwolves would remain at #1. Therefore, the Clippers would have both the 1st and 3rd best odds in the lottery since they own Minnesota’s first round pick in 2012 unprotected. In both of these scenarios, the Clippers would be in great position. If it is based off of the last 3 years, the Clippers would have a 75% chance of a top 3 pick. If it is based off of the last 5 years, the Clippers would have an 89% chance of getting a top 3 pick. In addition, if it is based off of the last 3 years, the Clippers would at worst have the 4th and 8th picks of the draft (two top 8 picks in a loaded draft). However, if it were based off of the last 5 years, the Clippers would at worst have the 4th and 6th picks of the draft (two top 6 picks in a loaded draft). If either of these now seemingly likely scenarios unfold, the Clippers will be a very scary team going forward.
Oh, and don’t forget the fact that this would put the Clippers in the drivers seat for a possible Chris Paul Trade Sweepstakes…
0 - Posted on: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 5:28pm #608155
WizardofOzParticipantI think the fairest way to do it would be the way SI wrote it. Using the records from the last 3 seasons, and penalizing a team for having the #1 pick over the 3 seasons. It’s worse for my Wizards, but from an unbiased point of view, I think that would be the fairest way to do it. But obviously, as a Wizards fan, I would much rather like to have it the way it was in your post (3 or 5 years w/ no penalty for having #1 pick).
But imagine if the Clippers didn’t trade their pick last year, and the NBA decided to base the lottery on the last 5 years, this is what their lineup could’ve possibly looked like:
PG: Irving
SG: Gordon
SF: Barnes
PF: Griffin
C: Drummond
*starts drooling*
0- Posted on: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 5:35pm #608156
Mr. BasketballParticipantWell they could instead potentially have this:
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Eric Gordon
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Blake Griffin
C: Deandre Jordan
If they deal their 2nd top 5 or 10 pick along with Kaman, Bledsoe, and Aminu to the Hornets. Gives New Orleans major cap relief and 3 very talented young players.
But yeah I agree that the lottery winning penalty is fair. However, even with this penalty, the Clippers would still have the best odds of winning the lottery because Minnesota has never won the lottery.
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- Posted on: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 5:35pm #608157
WizardofOzParticipantBut dodn’t forget that the owners want the age limit increased to 20-years-old, even though that’s not a focal talking point right now. I just hope it doesn’t happen. And what if the NBA decides to cancel the draft?
0 - Posted on: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 5:52pm #608160
Mr. BasketballParticipantIt wouldn’t make sense for the NBA to cancel the draft because not only would the draft improve the pool of talent in the NBA, but it would also give the NBA much needed revenue. The league makes too much money off of the draft to consider cancelling it.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 6:36pm #608165
JaeEvolutionParticipantI almost now just want to fast forward to either the start of this NBA season, or the 2012 NBA Draft if the first doesn’t happen. A loaded draft mixed with the Free Agency of Paul, Howard, and Williams will be quite the excitement needed to draw back some NBA fans who were turned away by all the lockout news.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 11/15/2011 - 3:02am #608195
draftmangtParticipantAs a Cavs fan i’d be extremely disapionted with either senario. Clearly the Cavs are one of the least talented teams in the league and not having a top ten pick this year would be a major set back.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 11/15/2011 - 3:59am #608200
HitsterParticipantWould the Clippers trade a number one pick for CP3 in a sign and trade I wonder. If NOH could get Drummond/Barnes then they would have a great rebuilding point.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 11/15/2011 - 4:18am #608201
khaled_a_dParticipant@ Mr. Basketball
Actually The Draft will be cancelled If there isn’t a new CBA in place b4 the draft,simply for a draft you need a CBA
Some writers actually expected this to be the case,saying if the whole season is cancelled,this mean there will be no rush for a new CBA until June,though I am not sure it makes so much sense0 - Posted on: Tue, 11/15/2011 - 12:21pm #608271
Mr. BasketballParticipantI think that there would be a draft for 2012 eventually though. When the NHL canceled their 2004-2005 season, they just delayed their draft until they had a new cba. They had a new cba on July 13th, 2005, and then had their draft on July 22nd, 2005. I think the NBA would do something similar where they’ll delay the draft until they have a new cba, which is likely to be around June if they cancel the season.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 11/15/2011 - 3:20pm #608292
j1232eParticipantWhat makes you think they will get a deal done by June if they lose the season. This thing could linger a lot longer than we all hope.
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