JNixon-Iggy9’s Countdown to the Draft: 60 Prospects in 30 Days (12&11)

12: Jonas Valanciunas, 6’11 240, C, Lietuvos Rytas (Lithuania), 19 years old

 Valanciunas is a late-blooming prospect who was about a half-foot shorter than he is now in 2007. His growth spurt while still keeping his athleticism makes him intriguing as a prospect. On top of his late-blooming status, he also was pretty efficient offensively and knows he’s a role-player, which is a plus. Physically, he’s got very good height and a 240 lb frame that a little thin for the typical NBA C, but he has the frame to get to 250 in time. He also has an outstanding 7’6 wingspan that helps him on both ends. Valanciunas is also a good athlete, who runs well, is a pretty quick leaper and shows solid quickness in his movements.

Offensively, Valanciunas is a garbageman who will never create much offense. More than ¼ of his offense comes from attacking the glass. Also great at finishing plays in pick and roll offense, setting solid screens and using a running start to help him play above the rim for a strong finish. Doesn’t have a bad touch around the rim either. Competes and plays with good energy, and is aided by the solid quickness and great length he possesses. A bit of a non-factor creating his own shots. Has no consistent moves with his back to the rim, and only shows a jump hook on occasion that sees mixed results. Won’t establish deep position until he gains strength, and struggles to use his left hand or make counter moves when his right hand get sat on. Not much of a passer and will turn it over if he has to use more than 2 dribbles, but he’s definitely not selfish. Doesn’t touch the ball much except for off ball plays, as he’s not good enough to have plays run through him. Makes no mistakes from the foul line, and that is an encouraging development that may show he has potential as a 15 foot shooter. His reasonably soft touch doesn’t hurt either

Most value comes on D. Valanciunas has some very good qualities as a defensive player. His length and size allow him to be a reasonably effective shot-blocker, as does his quick leaping skills. As he gains strength he will be a very functional post defender. Struggles with the IQ side of things though, and is extremely foul prone and will make mistakes defending outside of the immediate basket area. Won’t be able to play extended minutes until he learns not to foul. Averaged 3 fpg, and only played 15 mpg, which is an alarming rate to say the least. Pretty good rebounder.

Valanciunas has potential as a defensive minded role player and immediate basket finisher, and if his mid-range jump shot catches up to his free throw shot he also has promise there too. But he won’t reach him potential or stay on the floor until he stops fouls so much. His upside is similar to Andris Biedrins, but without the struggles at the foul line.

11: Tristan Thompson, 6’9 227, Texas, PF, Fr.

A top-15 recruit from Canada who had a very solid freshman season with Texas, Tristan Thompson appears to be a safe bet in a weak draft, with his role playing ability. He did struggle some against some quality competition, but he also showed solid ability against some of the good teams he faced as well. Physically, Thompson showed adequate height and although he’s a little thin right now he should easily be 235 in a few months without losing much in the way of athleticism. His 7’1 wingspan is also ideal for a PF. Athletically, Thompson isn’t a freak anywhere, but he shows solid leaping skills, explosiveness, speed, quickness and reactivity. He also possesses a nice 2nd jump.

Offensively, Thompson is OK. He works hard like Valanciunas does and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to score. Is very active on the boards and will get offensive rebounds and score that way. Probably the best pure offensive rebounder in the 2011 class, and that skill will translate for him. Also effective scoring in transition and off cuts to the rim, where he uses his solid leaping skills and explosiveness to be a very good finisher. His post game needs work, but his right-handed jump hook is promising as his go-to move. Uses his length to get it off, and has a soft touch to make it from as far as 9 feet consistently right now. Has a quick spin he’ll flash at times as well as a drop step. Has no counter moves and very little in the way of a left hand. Won’t create offense much, especially early on in his career. Has promise as a face-up shooter, but he’s raw with it and only shows it in a pinch from the 12-15 ft area. Average touch. His ugly FT % (48%) show just how much work he has to do for his mid-range game to be a weapon, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was pretty effective in time. Has enough handle and quickness to beat some PF’s with a straight-line drive to the rim. Not a bad passer, but certainly improvable. Not always very decisive on the floor offensively. Will need a good PG to help him be more effective offensively.

Thompson is a very solid defender. Very good shot-blocking skills, due to his superior timing and solid length and reactive leaping skills. Is a pretty active and doesn’t shy away from contact. Sometimes can get in fouls trouble and it affects his game. Shows solid fundamentals. Is especially good when he defends tweener forwards. Must get better on the defensive glass, as his rebounding rates on this end were poor. If he learns to hunt boards on D like his does on offense he will be fine.

Thompson is very much the same type of prospect Ed Davis was the year before. Both have good ability on the glass and as post defenders and shot-blockers, but both are developing strength and working on their offensive games. Thompson has good potential as role playing 4th option who scraps and does the dirty work for a team. If he goes to a team with a good PG and/or a C who’s talented offensively, it would be ideal for him.