JNixon-Iggy9’s Countdown to the Draft: 60 Prospects in 30 Days (30&29)

30: Josh Selby, 6’3 195, SG, Kansas, Fr.

Roller-coaster season, big HS hype, and 9-game suspension to start the season: all 3 things associated with former McDonald’s AA Josh Selby’s Freshman season in Lawrence, Kansas. Selby was ranked as high as #1 on some recruiting sites, and it’s safe to say he didn’t live up to the ranking or the premature hype. Did begin his career with a bang against USC, making the game-winning shot. I had only seen a little of Selby in HS, and I admit he did play with the aggressiveness, energy and the scoring tools and athleticism that made the common comparisons to Jerryd Bayless and Steve Francis believable. But lets get into it. Physically Selby is 6’3 SG in a PG’s body, with an average frame that’s not quite NBA-ready right now and only an average wingspan. Selby does show nice athleticism though, as he possesses good quickness (especially laterally) and solid explosiveness and speed, with very nice leaping skills.

Offensively, Selby didn’t adjust to his role as a scorer with Kansas very well. Kansas likes to use its SG’s as spot-up shooters and they generally don’t have the floor spacing to create much offense off the bounce in the flow of the scheme really. Selby is a decent shooter and made his shots at a respectable rate in these situations from the college 3. I don’t think he’ll be an efficient 3-point guy in the NBA, especially early in his career. He doesn’t have consistent form, but he does show a raw ability to just make shots at times even if they aren’t that smart. It’s likely that he has the ability to make pull-up shots from mid-range, but I don’t think it will be that efficient any time soon. Selby possesses a pretty good 1st step and good handle, so he does have slashing ability. Right now, he has trouble clearing guys off the bounce good enough to create high percentage looks, and clearly struggled in college with the concept of weakside defense. His forays to the cup were sloppy and he often drew charges or took bad shots at the rim because he tries to go all the way to the rim instead of passing or pulling up. Despite testing very well as a leaper with a 42” vert, he doesn’t play as explosive as he tests, so he struggles to finish at the rim over the athletic defenders and bigger guys he saw down low in the Big 12. Shot 39% on 2-pointers, which would be the lowest of any drafted player in the last 10 years, if he is selected. Selby has the size of a PG, but he’s not a PG at all. The team that picks him probably will try and get him to develop some PG skills. Will make basic ball swings on occasion, but he lacks the instincts of a PG,very rarely played PG for KU, and he looks for his own shots in pick and roll situations. Has a long way to go before he develops his QB skills. Not exactly unselfish. Needs to add strength, experience, IQ and a more unselfish approach.

Selby will have to be paired with a backcourt player who can defend SG’s, or else he will struggle. He plays fundamental D and shows the ability to stick his man though. Displays solid man-to-man D. Often is overaggressive and doesn’t quite show an understanding of knowing his matchup. Prone to playing too tight on slashing threats. Does close out of shooters well and does a good job of deny his man off the ball while also seeing the ball.

Selby came into college overhyped it seems. In hindsight, he probably would’ve been better suited going to Tennessee, who had a MUCH more conducive style of play for him. He will get drafted, mostly off his HS hype, but I can’t picture him playing much early on in his career. He’stoo raw right now. He’s not a PG at all despite his size and he’s not efficient enough as a scorer to be a SG. He also will need special lineups to be able to defend a position. And he needs to spend time getting physically and mentally mature to handle the NBA. I was not a fan of how he went about things at Kansas, he seems very me-1st. How will he handle his ego since it seems a lot of DNP-CD’s are coming his way? Will he not show to team dinners like he did at Kansas? Selby has some raw talent, but he’s not ever going to be more than an everyday offensive-minded player off the bench I don’t think. He’s similar to Jerryd Bayless, but much more raw at the same stage, and even Bayless had struggles getting on the floor early in his career.

29: Marshon Brooks, 6’5 195, SG, Providence, Sr.

After a very eye-popping statline playing in the Big East and a few very explosive scoring games against Georgetown and Notre Dame, Marshon Brooks caught the attention of scouts playing for a downtrodden Providence team that plays a wide-open style that produces nice offensive numbers and really bad defense. Since the season has ended, the love fair has grown like wildfire though, from scouts and draftniks alike. Has been compared to everyone from Nick Young to Kobe Bryant. Yeah. Kobe Bryant. It’s that serious folks. Safe to say, he’s been a pre-draft superstar. Physically, Brooks has nice height for an NBA SG, and a big-time 7’1 wingspan that allowed him to rebound pretty well this past despite playing a lot of PF. Gaining more weight and getting stronger wouldn’t hurt him though, as he’s pretty thin right now. Athletically, Brooks possesses good but not great speed, quickness, and leaping ability. He’s very smooth in his strides.

Brooks’ offense has drawn raves and is the reason he’s an NBA prospect in the 1st place. He has the ability to create his own shots, and was highly efficient as a Senior as a whole. As a shooter, Brooks is OK for an NBA SG. Possesses the ability to simply put the ball in the basket at times and shows a nice touch, but he’s got shaky shot selection generally, often downright bad. Prone to wasted possessions. Not afraid whatsoever to let it fly. Not an efficient shooter off the bounce. Not more than average as a spot-up shooter, which will have to improve with his usage not going to be near what it was at Providence. Doesn’t show consistent NBA range. Likes to utilize his smooth 1st step and change of pace dribbles to create as a slasher. Sometimes struggles to clear guys off the dribble, and will go through game long stretches were he takes poor, frustrated shots (Jimmy Butler and Preston Knowles of Louisville both made him do this a lot). Was an efficient finisher at 56% on 2-pointers, but struggles to beat guys off the bounce clean and finish against the more athletic frontlines. Not a passer, and never in his career had a positive A/TO. Will have to play much more unselfish, as he’s not going to be able to hunt shots like he did in college. A lot about his offense won’t translate easily or efficiently until he learns how to play as a role player who doesn’t have the ball a lot.

Brooks was horrible for a Providence team that played 0 D over the course of his entire career, so despite having a lot of talented scorers they never won. Brooks has both the length and lateral quickness to be an effective defender, but not the effort or attitude. A gambler for a team that liked to use its quickness to press and play gimmicky zone D, so he had good block and steals numbers. Not going to be a lockdown guy, but does have the ability to be a decent ball-thief who gets you around 1 a night. Pretty good rebounder, who averaged 7 a night last year playing a lot of time at PF.

Brooks might be able to play early depending on the team he goes to, but he has a lot of work to do for his game to be efficient. It’s highly doubtful he’ll be able to dominate the ball like he did in college, so he’ll have to adjust. The fact that he’s not a dedicated defender also doesn’t help matters. He has been a winning player, but he does have the ability to be a scorer off the bench for a team down the line if he gets stronger and more efficient. He has some similarities to Nick Young, but he’s not as big, athletic, or as good a scorer though.