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  • #27525
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    valentine

    What bothers me so much about this year’s MVP coronation of "The Derrick Rose Story" is not so much that it’s a mistake — we’ve had bad award votes before and will have them again — but that it’s the same mistake, for the fifth time in 11 years.

     

     

    This is an inherent risk in the MVP selection process. When you ask people whose life’s work is to seek out and tell great stories to vote on this award, we shouldn’t be surprised when they turn out to vote for the best story rather than the player who is most valuable.

     

     

    Guards especially make for great stories, because they’re natural underdogs. Height, obviously, is a huge factor in this game, so we’re completely fascinated when smaller players can play at a high level. Generally, what they do is a lot more captivating than watching a 7-footer methodically dunk on people’s heads, even if the latter is a much more effective way to win basketball games. We don’t like rooting for Goliath.

     

     

    Put a guard on a "surprise" team and the impact doubles. Everyone looks for The Cause, and all roads lead back to the guard. Jab in an IV and let the confirmation bias flow through your veins, and soon even the negative plays become proof ("Look at the shot he almost made!"). This usually happens only with perimeter players, by the way. A miss on a double-clutching drive after a sweet crossover can be spectacular, in a way that a missed jump hook simply cannot.

     

     

    A brief history of Voting the Story

     

     

    As a result of all our fun with guards and their compelling stories, the three dominant big men of the past decade — Shaquille O’Neal, Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan — were shafted out of three MVP awards and nearly a fourth. Ask how this happened and you’ll get a lot of embarrassed shrugging, and yet we’re headed down that same path again.

     

     

    So we’ll end up with "The Derrick Rose Story" as this year’s MVP — just as we ended up with Allen Iverson winning in 2001, and Steve Nash in 2005 and 2006, and Jason Kidd‘s second-place finish in 2002 (which I include here because we only narrowly averted the greatest award travesty in league history, when one of the greatest players of all time had the best season of his career and nearly lost the award to a guy who shot 39.1 percent).

     

     

    And make no mistake, the voters are pulling the lever for the story, and not the player.

     

     

    How do we know that? Actually, we can prove it. Even if we presume that the stats somehow didn’t adequately capture the value of Iverson, Kidd or Nash, we have a smoking gun that the vote was for the story and not the player.

     

     

    Believe it or not, the voters told us. Actions speak louder than words, and their ballots in other seasons are Bose speakers blaring out that they voted for the story.

     

     

    Neither Nash, Iverson nor Kidd had their best seasons the year they won (or nearly won, in Kidd’s case). In fact, each had a dramatically stronger case in other seasons. What they lacked was the storyline.

     

     

    Check out the evidence:

     

     

    •  Kidd is the most egregious example. In 2001-02, he almost won the award, receiving 45 first-place votes. The next season, the Nets traded two starters for a declining Dikembe Mutombo but made it back to the 2003 Finals anyway because Kidd had by far the best season of his career; compared to his first year in New Jersey, he added four points to his scoring average, shot better and took on a dramatically larger offensive role. If Kidd was the real MVP in 2001-02 (on a huge number of ballots), and the stats were somehow missing that, then surely he was even more valuable in 2002-03 and should have cruised to the trophy.

     

     

    You know how many first-place MVP votes Kidd got in 2003? Bupkus. Zilch. Zippo. Kidd had only 31 total points, for a ninth-place finish that put him right behind Detroit’s Ben Wallace. If people weren’t voting for the story in 2002, as opposed to the player, explain that one.

     

     

    •  Nash is an equally strong example. As everyone knows, he won the MVP in 2005, sporting a player efficiency rating of 22.04 while joining with a dominant power forward to lead a 62-win team. What few people realize is that two years earlier, he had teamed up with a dominant power forward to win 60 games and tie for the best record in the West; he had a better PER that season (23.51) and played more minutes. For his efforts he received one fifth-place vote.

     

     

    The difference between those seasons, obviously, was that in 2004-05 Nash was a great story, because he had just joined a 29-win team that surprisingly rose to first in the West. The 2002-03 Mavericks were already good, so his performance there was deemed a minor event.

     

     

    •  You can do this exercise with several other Nash seasons. For instance, Nash won the MVP with a PER of 23.29 in 2006, leading a 54-win team in the conference finals. In 2009-10, Nash had a PER of 21.25 and led a 54-win team to the conference finals. He finished eighth and didn’t get a single first-place vote. Nash also finished a distant second behind Dirk Nowitzki the year he had his best statistical season, 2006-07, and won 61 games. Again, it sure seems like the story was the dividing factor between these seasons, and not the player.

     

     

    •  Iverson outperformed his MVP season in both 2004-05 and 2005-06; he had a comparable PER in more minutes in the former and a better PER in more minutes in the latter. He didn’t come close to winning in either season, finishing fifth in 2005 and getting just a single fifth-place vote in 2006.

    (Side note: If you don’t like PER, you can use any other measures and get the same answers, which shouldn’t be a surprise, since PER is essentially a summary of all the other statistical categories.)

     

     

    What’s the explanation for this other than that the voters went for the best story instead of the best player? Did all three of these guys suddenly become crappier leaders or lose their clutch mojo in those other seasons?

     

     

    No — they just weren’t hot stories.

     

     

    The burden of proof

     

     

    The same thing is going to happen this season with "The Derrick Rose Story."

     

     

    Let me emphasize that Rose is indeed a very valuable player, and that what he and the Bulls have done this season is undeniably a great story. It does not, however, make him more valuable than every single other player in the entire league, and the evidence for this is abundantly clear to anyone who cares to look for it. Sorry, but if you want me to build the pedestal that high, I’m gonna need some more concrete for the foundation.

     

     

    This part gets Rose fans terribly upset, but it’s really basic: There is a glaring lack of evidence that he is as valuable as has been claimed. It’s not just a question of one selected number or another not supporting his case. It’s that none of the numbers do.

     

     

    I’m not cherry-picking stats to support some covert Rose-hating agenda. I literally cannot find a single shred of data, anywhere, to support the idea that he’s the most valuable player in the league.

     

     

    Rose already has an uphill climb in any logical debate — his status as the front-runner rests uneasily beside the fact that he’d be the fourth-best player in the state of Florida. This is where people point out that "Most Valuable" and "Best" aren’t necessarily the same thing, and that’s correct.

     

     

    But it does shift the burden of proof. If you’re going to tell me that Rose has been more valuable this season in spite of those facts, you better bring a hell of a lot more to the table than, "But watch him play!" (For the record, I’ve seen him in person four times this season and countless other games on the tube.)

     

     

    Digging for proof

     

     

    This always gets people screaming and yelling about those infernal statheads, as though it’s some kind of horrible imposition to ask for actual hard evidence to back up an MVP vote.

     

     

    "Nobody has carried a greater burden than Rose," it’s been said, and in an extremely narrow sense that’s almost true — only Kobe Bryant has used more possessions. Carrying the burden well, on the other hand, hasn’t been his strong suit, as his middling true shooting percentage attests. More obviously, there are greater burdens than handling the ball for 20 seconds on every trip. Dwight Howard, for instance, carries the burden of being his team’s entire defense and absorbing vicious beatings on offense, but it’s tough to package that in a highlight reel.

     

     

    "Rose won without Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah," it’s been said, and certainly the Bulls did just that. However, even when those players were out, the Bulls outscored opponents when Rose was off the court, suggesting they were far more than the one-man band that’s been depicted. None of the Bulls’ other players are big stars, and this throws people, but Chicago’s depth and defensive ability have carried it this year.

     

     

    And finally, there’s the idea of his indispensability — it’s the "they’re nothing without him" approach. If that’s the case, the Bulls should perform much worse when he’s off the court than they do. Certainly, it’s the case with most other stars. The Heat are 10.49 points per 100 possessions worse without LeBron James this season; the Mavs, 16.68 points worse without Dirk Nowitzki; the Magic, 6.95 worse without Howard, and the Lakers, 6.20 worse without Bryant.

     

     

    Rose’s Bulls? They lose just 1.49 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the court, they still outscore opponents by 6.78 per 100, which roughly translates to a 55-win team.

     

     

    Now, that first measure does understate Rose’s impact, because he’s played a lot of minutes with guys like Keith Bogans and Kurt Thomas. You can get more scientific by adjusting for the players Rose players with and against, as basketballvalue.com does, and the difference becomes a more respectable 8.60. But that isn’t the biggest difference in the league, or even close to it. Howard benefits from the same math — Orlando is 12.36 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court after said adjustment.

     

     

    Yes, these stats are notoriously noisy. But as I noted above, "The Derrick Rose Story" doesn’t have compelling evidence to start with; this is another plank of non-support.

     

     

    Other arguments similarly fall flat. "Look at Rose’s impact on the Bulls’ winning," you say. Well, Chicago has certainly won a ton, and they’ve done it with a suffocating defense than ranks first in the league.

     

     

    Rose? He’s arguably been the least important part of that equation. While I’d argue the stats undervalue his defensive improvement this season, it’s a bit jarring to find out that the Bulls actually give up dramatically fewer points the second he exits the game.

     

     

    As for the argument that Rose was the catalyst for the defense anyway, because of his buy-in to coach Tim Thibodeau’s approach … I agree that was a necessary condition for Chicago’s success. But has it really come to this? Are we really giving out an MVP trophy with "actually tried on defense for a change" as a key bullet point in the résumé?

     

     

    If Rose is indispensable, however, we might also try to remove him from the Bulls entirely and see what happens. The equation everyone tries to make in their head is what I call the "bad backup" test, which holds that since Rose would be replaced by C.J. Watson while LeBron James would be replaced by Dwyane Wade, then Rose must be more valuable.

     

     

    In this test, there’s no reason to focus on just the team, however. A better version of this test will lead you directly to this year’s true MVP:

     

     

    Whom else in the league could you replace this player with?

     

     

    That’s really what we want to know, isn’t it? If you could trade the player tomorrow and replace him with somebody just as good, it’s hard to make a case that he’s the single most valuable player in the league, right?

     

     

    In Rose’s case, it’s pretty apparent that you could replace him with Russell Westbrook and suffer virtually no drop-off. They both use an equally large chunk of their team’s possessions, and use them almost exactly the same way in terms of shot-pass decisions and spots on the floor. Rose shoots more jumpers and Westbrook takes more free throws, but by and large you’d get the same results.

     

     

    Not a fan of Westbrook? Fine. You can try the same exercise with Nash, or Chris Paul, or Deron Williams, or even Wade, who despite being a 2 has a lot of similar attributes to Rose. One can argue for days whether Rose is a bit better than these players, and if so, by how much, but we’re talking about small change here. And it’s not just that there’s one particular player you could replace Rose with and suffer only marginal decline; there are several such players.

     

     

    Now, let’s try the same exercise with another player.

     

     

    Who could replace Dwight Howard?

     

     

    Anyone?

     

     

    [Taps foot]

     

     

    Got a candidate in mind yet?

     

     

    [Looks at watch]

     

     

    No, I mean from this season, not 1995. Try again.

     

     

    [Crickets chirping]

     

     

    Still waiting …

     

     

    The conclusion is obvious, isn’t it?

     

     

    Dwight Howard is the most irreplaceable player in the league.

     

     

    This is the ultimate reason not to vote "The Derrick Rose Story" for MVP: Every argument put forward for him works better for somebody else, and in particular works better for Howard.

     

     

    This last one is the most damning, however. Put Westbrook, Paul or Williams in for Rose and the Bulls might slip a couple of games. Might. Put any other player in Howard’s position and the Magic immediately turn to sawdust. It’s not just that he’s second in the league in PER and seventh in adjusted plus-minus; it’s that no other center can touch him in either category, and the one who is closest (Andrew Bynum) has played half as many minutes.

     

     

    Unlike "The Derrick Rose Story," Howard’s case has more than just raw emotion to support it. The Magic are third in the NBA in defensive efficiency — ahead of Miami, Milwaukee, the Lakers and Dallas, among others — even though nobody else in their top eight is even an average defensive player. An Orlando team that often plays Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Ryan Anderson at the same time still gets elite defensive results because Howard so completely controls the paint behind them.

     

     

    Offensively, Howard’s fingerprints are everywhere, too — not just with the dunks, but with the fouls he draws that put opponents in the bonus and hand his teammates easy freebies, and the clean 3-point looks that come without his ever touching the ball. It’s not always pretty, but it’s hugely valuable.

     

     

    So why have the Magic not won more games than the Bulls? Because, to borrow everyone’s favorite line about Rose, Howard has played the entire season without Boozer and Noah, and Luol Deng. Any of these three would be the second-best player on the Magic. Compare the benches and you’ll get a similar laugh riot; the Bulls have arguably the league’s best backup center, for instance, while the Magic don’t even keep one on the roster.

     

     

    Unfortunately, the momentum is probably too far gone at this point. We like great stories and we don’t particularly enjoy rooting for Goliath, so "The Derrick Rose Story" will win the MVP trophy when it should probably finish sixth or seventh, and Howard will end up in the same shafted company as Shaq, Garnett and Duncan before him.

     

     

    But let’s not kid ourselves. In the end, this vote says a lot more about us than it does about either Rose or Howard.

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  • #515823
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    JoeWolf1

     I think if Chicago and Orlando traded records everyone would be talking about how Dwight Howard has improved and deserves the MVP.  Chicago has emerged as a contender and Orlando is the 4 seed, like it or not MVP has a lot to do with team record these days and if Orlando was in 1st and Chicago in 4th people would be singing Howard’s praises right now.

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  • #515826
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    The lake show2

    I’m not sure it does. who has the best record int he NBA and has had it for the past couple of months?..Spurs yet not one player is considered the MVP. Lakers are actually a game or half a game ahead of the Bulls and Dallas is tied( i think). It has alot to do with popularity and whats the hot story at the time as well as talent( talent less so because if that was the case how many MVP’s should Kobe have right now). If Blake Griffin’s Clippers were winning or the Twolves were winning it would be a three player race. (popular and they are the IT people right now)

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  • #515829
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    butidonthavemoney

    Very interesting, indeed. I have to agree with Hollinger here.

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  • #515831
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    JoeWolf1

     Well you’re right about what is the hot story right now, and the Spurs have the better record for sure and i’m actually a little surprised Manu Ginobili or Kobe hasn’t had more MVP talk, but it’s not necessarily who is the best player on the team with the best record, but a guy who’s a good story and putting up great numbers for an elite team.  Lebron the last two years, Kobe in 08 and Dirk in 07 are all examples of this and Rose is too…If Orlando was even in 2nd in the East or if they had been recharged and on a tear after the trade you know Dwight would be getting more attention.  You’re right about hype and a good story, but your not gonna get many votes as a guy who’s equally a good story and his team has the 2nd best record in the league and your team has the 8th.

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  • #515835
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    Steroid
    Participant

    Hard to disagree… He pretty much backs up everything with evidence. Don’t let a Derrick Rose fan reads this… hahahaha

    I’ve said this before though… If you take Dwight Howard off the Magic, they’ll be this year’s Cavs team or maybe even worse.

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  • #515837
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    dmo21
    Participant

    But should a player deserve the award because the management made a crappier team? He said that the Bulls have the best bench in the league and thats why they have the good record, but that has nothing to do with Rose. So you can only win if you are the only good player on your team? You cant look at how the team is made up because that is not the player’s option or choice. Also, he said that Rose could easily be replace by several other point guards in the league but Howard could not replaced by a single center in the whole league on their respective teams… So wouldn’t that also work the other way in the Rose has harder competition at his position while Howard always plays against lesser opponents.. I think it looks better if you are the best of best rather then the best cause there are no others comparable.. Just my thoughts.

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  • #515838
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    immaletufinishbut
    Participant

    I have to agree, the story is what makes people feel like he is the MVP, I have been saying for the longest that he is replaceble and only player in the league who are irreplaceble are lebron james and dwight howard……..

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  • #515839
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    Joe did, too. Record! Derrick Rose has missed one game for the Bulls, but he has otherwise lead them to the best record in the Eastern Conference, more than likely securing the top seed. It may be a story, but he is also killing it this year, and while his assists and rebounds or shooting percentage may not lift his PER to a "Hollinger acceptable" level, I think the other "storyline" MVP’s have much less of a case than Rose. Rose has stood out as the best PG in the league as far as the season he has had, bar none. Chicago’s offense is hugely dependent on him, and luckily enough they have nice depth. I agree with him slightly on the defensive ability he has displayed, but his being the best player on the potential best team in the East trumps that.

    Sure, Dwight Howard may be harder to replace, but should total positional incompetence be a part of MVP voting? Dwight Howard is a great center and great defender, but his team is marginal and inconsistent. He is an improved offensive player, but still not a dominant one. Indeed, if his game were to take the next step, he would be averaging in the same neighborhood as Rose and Amare Stoudemire. Yeah, he is two points behind, but that is not the whole story. Sure he gets hacked, picked on, called names, yada, yada, yada, but he averages 13.5 shots from the field per game. That number, is criminal. Blake Griffin, averages 16.7, and that dude dunks a lot/plays near the basket too. To me, it is still shocking that a person who is far and away the best, most physically and athletically dominant player in the league, takes so few shots.

    Dwight is a great player, and is probably having his best or close to his best individual season (definitely is according to Hollinger’s trackings), but I still find it incredibly difficult to call him the MVP. Would his team be the most screwed without him on it? Probably, but does that mean he is a better player than some people on better teams? LeBron James is still a much better player than Dwight Howard, has a better PER and is on a better team. But, since Dwight’s teammates suck that much more, he deserves the MVP? LeBron played with much worse players and had a better record when he was his MVP’s, but since their are more SF’s than Centers, he would be easier to replace, right? I like how Hollinger is pointing out that stories can sometimes be bigger than actual players when it comes to the MVP, but he is picking at straws over this story.

    Yes, we are unsure if Derrick Rose is the best PG in the league (I think he is), much less the best player (LeBron, Kobe, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant and maybe even Dwight Howard might have something to say about that). But, with all things considered, I still feel he is the front runner for MVP. I think the fact that Chicago overachieved had some to do with it, but he also overachieved. Take Rose away from that team, they are MUCH worse off. They would not have the best record in the East, and while his supporting cast may be better than Dwight Howards, well, if Dwight Howard were maybe a more valuable player he would have made it a different story. Their have been Center’s with worse supporting casts than Dwight Howard who have done more. They are not stunted enough in their offensive game to the point of not getting even 15 shots per game though. His FG% is great, but his offensive game is a huge step below the best big men who played before him.

    Ultimately, Dwight Howard may be the one guy who if you take him off his team, they may very well suffer the most. But, than I ask you, does that make him the MVP? Is that not turning this into the "worst supporting cast around a good player award? LeBron James is a better player and has had a better season individually, in my opinion and according to Hollinger’s PER. But, while Rose may be a great story, he has without a doubt been the best player on a team that is 2.5 games up on two other great teams and 7.5 games up on Dwight’s team. He has killed against big time competition, is the Bulls first scoring option and has been without a doubt this teams leader. He has been the best offensive PG this year, and wins his match-up constantly. At this point, I have little doubt in my mind he will win the MVP award and I think he has every reason too, combined with record and individual performance. Yes, Dwight Howard puts up more gaudy numbers at a position where he is clearly the best, but has he dominated to the point where we should be praising him as the MVP of the NBA. In my opinion, not even close. My ballot would be Rose, LeBron and than Dwight Howard, but again, I think Rose has much more of a case than Dwight based on winning ball games and his role in doing that.

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  • #515841
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    The lake show2

    In reality LeBron is the easy pick for MVP. But he’s not the popular guy. He will probably go through years of this just like Kobe by being the best player int he NBA yet getting passed over for the MVP

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  • #515842
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    immaletufinishbut
    Participant

    A couple years ago I would say chris paul too

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  • #515846
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    If the Heat were indeed front runners, than I think LeBron would have a shot. But, since they have struggled, LeBron gets judged much more harshly, people start saying Wade is just is good, so on and so forth. If the Magic had the best record in the East, than by all means Dwight should be MVP. He would have much more of a case than he does right now. But, the Bulls do, and Rose is their best player. Story may have something to do with it, but in my mind Rose is having a much better season and was a much more valuable individual player than the guys he mentioned.

    Also, just because the league is without Center’s, does that mean that Dwight Howard should be the standard for a dominant Center on both ends of the floor? When Shaq, Timmy and KG won MVP’s, they were putting up better or similar numbers to Dwight on better teams. When AI won MVP, he was averaging more points than Rose, but probably shot a much worse percentage, was not the distributor Rose was and was on a team with less of a record. Plus, Hollinger names these guys and names no actual cases of the players that should have won the awards.

    Lets play a game. Switch Nelson/Howard to the Bulls and Rose/Noah to the Magic. Are the Bulls better? Are the Magic worse? Tough to say, but I have a feeling that very little would change in those scenarios. Rose is way better than Nelson, Howard is way better than Noah, but since their are more awesome PG’s than even decent Centers, that means Dwight Howard is the MVP? I see flawed logic there personally. Dwight Howard is more rare than Derrick Rose, but Derrick Rose is having a better season than Dwight Howard with the whole magillicudy taken into consideration.

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  • #515847
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    The lake show2

    I dont think Bron would even have a shot then because he is so hated. One of the main reason’s Kobe didnt have a shot in the past. If Miami catch’s the Bulls (only 2 games behind so even if they don’t catch them its still only two games behind) he still wouldnt get it.

     

    I like this article because he makes very good points behind his arguments unlike alot of people who just say things like " if you replace him with this guy or if he wasn’t on this team or have you watched him play".

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  • #515848
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    Steroid
    Participant

    In the strictist sense of the word, valuable, Dwight is more valuable than Rose is simply because of what has been already stated in the post. There really is no debating that. Dwight would be an irreplacable part not on the Magic’s team, but on any team simply because there is no other center even close to his level right now. Scaricty is what makes something valuable. I would say that the Bulls would be an even more scarier team if it had Howard/Nelson on it with that type of team defense. The Magic with Noah and Rose would probably be in the bottom half of the conference or maybe worse with the type of system and defense the Magic would have and not to mention the mediocre and overpaid talent they have in Orlando.

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  • #515849
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    The lake show2

    But is it his Fault that no other Center is as good as him?..The same as was it Jordan’s fault that no one else worked as hard as him while also having the good given athletic ability?

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  • #515851
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    apb540
    Participant

    This story just reconfirms some common knowledge: the MVP award has become somewhat of a joke. 

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  • #515856
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    The lake show2

    I Don’t think its a joke, saying that makes it seem like if Rose wins it it will be the biggest travesty in sports history which is not the truth.

     

    Its just not a true assessment of who the best player int he NBA is alot of times

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  • #515857
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    butidonthavemoney

    Not as bad as the Coach of the Year voting though. These awards don’t really mean that much anymore.

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  • #515859
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    Hale
    Participant

    For almost the entire season I’ve thought Rose should be MVP (maybe biased, he’s my favorite player) but now over the last month or so I’ve come to the realization that Howard deserves it more.

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  • #515861
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    Should he have grown? I mean, come on man. Also, I think Hollinger’s argument is exactly based on Dwight being taken away from a team and Rose doing the same. Yes, the Magic have over payed players, but you are telling me that Rose and Noah with those players would not be interesting? Noah and Rose were already part of a bottom of the conference play-off team that arguably did not have the talent currently on this Magic team.

    13.5 shots per game people! Does that not raise any questions? Has this what dominance of a position has come too? The game has not changed that much, guys. Dwight taking this few shots may have something to do with his being beaten to a pulp, or the Magic shooters or Stan Van Gundy saying if he were to take 15 shots per game he would whine at a cosmic rate that would break Dwight’s ears. I say, put this on Dwight Howard. He gets to the line a lot, but I would be much happier seeing him take at least a couple more shots per game. It would help his team immensely, as he is, after all, the best Center in the league by far.

    Yes, value is based on rarity, when it comes to jewels and diamonds. Kevin Love is having a rare year. I would argue though, that Rose is having a year that is even more rare than Dwight Howard. This is his best year, but their have been a number of years similar to his, and not only similar, better. Does Dwight’s rarity at his position therefore make him more valuable? When is the last time a true PG has averaged 25 and 8, plus lead his team to the best record in a division stacked at the top? This is a guy who does not need the ball in his hands the whole time, which is why it is harder for him to get ridiculous assist totals that would make him a "better" candidate in Hollinger’s PER system.

    It is also, if you did not know, harder to get assists than rebounds. Look at what teams average more of per game. Hence, it is usually why players like Rose, who run a team fantastically but do not average obscene assist totals, rank lower on Hollinger’s PER. Still, I do not think that Howard has that much of a case over Rose. Yes, the Magic blow goats and have cooled off considerably as a story after going in the opposite direction from their Finals trip, but has this made Dwight gain value over time? Why did he not win the award two years ago, his team was better and his statistics incredibly similar. Has Dwight become more valuable as his team has gotten worse? I do not know guys, but I think that Dwight Howard may be getting some sympathy card type stuff from people as well.

    My bottom line is, if he were truly the MVP of the league, his team would be better than they are. He does not have that bad of a bunch of guys, and for all of Rose’s problems on the defensive end, I still think Dwight’s offense is entirely overrated. To me, what would really separate Dwight would be if he were averaging a few more points per game. With his level of talent, why doesn’t this happen? Would it not make his team better if he scored more points. Maybe not when he gets 39, but maybe 26-29.  If he were averaging 25 per game, it would be much easier to swallow. But, he is averaging fewer PPG than Shaq did in his rookie year, on the 4th best team in the East. Are people really saying, "Wow, that gives him a much better case than a guy averaging 25 ppg on a game 7.5 games ahead who is incredibly valuable to his team as well?" I do not say that, I think Hollinger suckered people here and I think he leaves a lot to be desired in his argument concerning Rose and Howard.

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  • #515867
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    LawDeeZee
    Participant

    when i watch a bulls game, i feel like rose puts that team on his back at times … very often late in games, he’s engineered comebacks this season totally with his own individual offense … people familiar with him and the bulls know that he’s got a kobe-esque mentality about the game, when they blew that huge lead to atlanta … the next time they popped up on the schedule rose was out for redemption and had his team cruising to a blowout victory, these are the things i want out of my MVP

    lebron’s struggles in late game situations have been WELL documented this year and although that’s not a statistic you can plug into hollinger’s rating system, i feel like it contributes to the value of an individual player

    howard is a dominant defensive player, there’s no question about it and among the league’s best rebounders, but when i watch orlando play, i feel like howards statistics at times are greater then his actual impact on games, clearly his impact defensively is significant … but it was a different feeling watching the dream or shaq in their primes … i also don’t think, that fair or not … howard has helped his MVP case with the technical fouls

     

    … clearly a legit case can be made for howard, but sitting at the 4th spot in the east … when people were saying preseason that lebron, wade, and bosh wouldn’t even comprise the best team in florida doesn’t jump off the page at you as much as the bulls cruising right now to what very well may end up being the best regular season record in the east! I think that’s why rose is the bigger story and why he will likely win the MVP. Every year other players put forth resumes that could challenge for the award and when you’re talking about the VERY elite like we are in this case, you’re splitting hairs no matter what. You can pick your guy, but i don’t think if the award went to Rose, Howard, or even Kobe you could call that player UNDESERVING!

     

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  • #515870
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    kngojc
    Participant

     Kobe and any number of the Spurs don’t get MVP votes (or many at all) anymore because they are consistently good. Yes, you’re right about the whole "who is hot right now" part of it but I think it goes a lot deeper than that. For the same reason as LBJ not getting MVP this year, Dirk can’t either. They have talent all around them and even if they falter in a game, the rest of the team can pick them up and keep going. The award is for the most VALUABLE player. Especially to his team. And wins will always influence this. If Derrick Rose was sidetracked with an injury like Noah or Boozer, the Bulls would lose each game unless if they played a team like the Wolves or Raptors, the bottom feeding teams. Rose wills this team to win by sheer desire. He is one of the most humble players in the league in accordance with his talent. That’s one reason I really like him. He doesn’t go out and try to say, "I’m the best player there is right now. I want the MVP because I deserve it." No. Instead he says, "I don’t care about all that. All I want is for my team to win." He is the most valuable player to this team and without him, they wouldn’t be in the playoffs or else they’d be fighting for the 8 seed.

    That’s why this race comes down to Howard and Rose. With the slight edge to Rose because he’s flashier and more attention grabbing, I’ll give you that one.

    Howard is in much the same situation. He leads his team to victory day in and day out regardless of who they are playing. 100% effort, each night. And that’s why he’s in second place for voting. And the only reason why he is in second place is because he’s three spots behind in the standings behind the number one candidate right now.

    Both Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose have shown tremendous improvements in their game over the last few years and I would really expect for them to keep improving and keep fighting for the best player in the East, leaving out LeBron because he’s already on a team with two other top 15 players in the league. I can tell you one thing for certain, the matchup between the Bulls and the Magic in the playoffs will really provide evidence for or against why Derrick Rose will be the MVP this year. And I’m incredibly excited for that matchup.

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  • #515877
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    The lake show2

    Bascially MVP should change the name to Player who is the most popular,Great scorer, and anything else dealing with offense and exclude anything doing with defense. It actually should put as much emphises on defense as it does offense because defense is also part of the game not jus offense. Offense and Defense falls under the catagory of player. Thats why i have bnever had a problem with Jordan, Kobe, Lebron, Duncan,Garnett getting the MVP award before because they dominate on offense as well as defense. they are one of the best if not the best at there position in both departments when they won.

    I wonder how many kids look at this and think " Nash won the MVP and Howard prob wont win it even though he is a very good defender so maybe i should just concentrate on being a very good offensive player and not so much on defense"

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  • #515879
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    I’ll be honest, I didn’t read all of the comments because they are a ton. But Hollinger’s argument doesn’t make much sense to me.

    We all knew that Howard was the most indispensible player coming into this season. He is the best big man in the league and also the best defender. So by that logic, shouldn’t they have just handed the award to him at the beginning of the season? Hell, he will be the most indispensible player for years until another 7′ player of his talent comes around. So he should just get the MVP until that guy shows up right?

    It all depends on how you view the award. Rose has been the best player this year and has his team in 1st place in the east. True, he isn’t the whole reason, and Hollinger can throw his bullshit stats around all day long, but who has had a better all around year than Rose?

     

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  • #515889
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    The lake show2

    You should probably read the whole thing then. Unlike other people’s arguement his actually make alot of sense( unless you are a die hard rose fan then it makes no sense at all)

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  • #515891
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    I knew DanEBoy would have my back here on the "Hollinger is still BS" train. Quincey, that argument you just made, is incredibly ridiculous. You focus on all aspects of basketball and do the best with what you have. It is not like Steve Nash said "F defense". He does not have that ability that Dwight Howard does to do anything in that department. A lot of it is working with what you have, and no one did that better this year than Derrick Rose.

    I remember during the All-Star game, you argued that Kevin Love and other PF’s were not that bad defensively as many made them to be, because they all kill each other. Well, is that not the same with PG’s? They are the two most stacked positions in the league, and no one had a better year than Derrick Rose in 2010-11. Record, leadership and of course, impressive statistics, which after all are what Hollinger argues. In no way am I a diehard Rose fan, and I was the one who argued hard for LeBron James candidacy, but to discredit Rose due to statistics, which is what Hollinger tries to do, is a tad ridiculous when his team also has that nice 7.5 game lead. Not to mention his team has not really been intact for a majority of the season. No one was calling Asik the best back-up Center in the league when Noah was hurt either, he came on later in the season.

    Yes, he is not the defender of Dwight Howard, he is not 6-10 and 270 pounds, but I think he did pretty well with what he had. Defense is something he has to work on, and if he were not on the Bulls, and if he did not have some solid teammates, he might not win this award. Still, that always plays a point in who should win the award. He even says that Boozer, Deng and Noah would all be better second bananas than who Dwight already has. While they may be true, he fails to point out that the Magic have some nice depth. Plus, he leaves out the fact that if they had not traded Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis, they may not suck as much donkey balls as they do. It is not Dwight’s fault they made these trades, but it is Rose’s fault that he made the Bulls a better team than the Magic. I guess he’s sorry.

     

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  • #515893
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    Oh, I read Hollinger’s whole article, just didn’t read all of the comments. And again, by his theory, it seems only big men should ever win the award. He gripes about Shaq, Duncan and KG getting shafted. Hollinger is all about numbers.

    How about using the argument that the Bulls are the best team in the league, and Deng is having a career season, because of Rose’s energy. They see how much he works on his game, how hard he plays, and it just rubs off on the rest. Kind of like the Jordan effect, he leads by example and makes his teammates want to play better.

    Thumb away, I don’t care. Hollinger is garbage in my opinion, just look at his PER ratings.

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  • #515898
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    If you give me a negative, at least have the balls to put up an argument. Don’t be scared.

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  • #515902
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    Steroid
    Participant

    So I guess D. Rose just has this polarizing effect on his team mates that makes him so much valuable than any other player. His "effect" makes them even play better defense, which it is shown that his team is even better defensively without him… Even rivaling KG’s tendency to pick his team mates up defensively (sarcasm). That argument is to the point of pulling for straws…

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  • #515904
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    Yeah, pulling straws. Kind of like wherever you work, you tend to work a little harder for certain people. People you respect more, guys who work their asses off and never complain. I think it is a valid argument.

    But be one of the lemmings who follows Hollinger and his strictly numbers theories. Go read a Malcolm Gladwell book and you will laugh at guys like Hollinger.

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  • #515908
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    apb540
    Participant

    I am glad that other people out there share the same feeling as me with Hollinger’s stupid ass "PER."  Not everything can be measured with statistics!!! 

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  • #515910
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    DanEboy
    Participant

    The only thing Hollinger’s stats are good for is when someone like David Lee’s contract is up he can say, "Last season, I was a more ‘efficient’ player than Kobe, Pierce, KG, Rose , Deron Williams, blah blah blah."

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  • #515919
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    BothTeamsPlayedHard
    Participant

    What I find humorous about this recent backlash against Rose is that the 2011 Bulls are the 2009 Cavs, but there are people like Hollinger and LeBatard who choose to either ignore what they see or simply write about what they are not watching. The Bulls are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, depending on how one wants to measure defense. Surely by any measure, they are in the top five… so were the 2009 Cavs. The Cavs were at the top in just about every defensive metric and around the middle of every offensive category. Did that change the fact that it was LeBron who carried that team, and that it was James who was the reason they were title contenders?

    The Bulls have outscored opponents when Rose is off the floor, but that cherry-picks moments in games where the other team has their best players resting as well. Are these people blissfully unaware of the rotational rhythm of an NBA game where the start of the second quarter and the bridge minutes at the end of the third and start of the fourth are generally where second units are used? What the Bulls have done with their rotation for much of the year (where either Boozer or Noah has been hurt) is have Kurt Thomas and Keith Bogans operate with the first unit despite them not being among the team’s top five players. Why would a team do this, because it sets up those mismatches with the second unit where Kyle Korver doesn’t have to guard a real shooting guard or Omer Asik have to guard a real center. They are both respectable positional defenders, but being an athletic limited yet solid positional defender is much more effective against other team’s second units. Stopping great offensive teams requires both positioning and athleticism. The Bulls second unit has bought into its job, and they play hard and effective defensively. It does not alter that they are put in a position to succeed because of what Derrick Rose does. The Bulls had long stretches of the year where they were starting Bogans, Deng, Noah, and Thomas. Rose was the only person who could create a shot. Thomas, Bogans, and Deng can hit a shot, but they aren’t creating. This is no different from 2009 when utterly mediocre Cavs received remarkable praise and achieved great levels of efficiency. Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Delonte West, Boobie Gibson, Wally Szczerbiak, and Ben Wallace looked like respectable NBA players. Mo Williams had a 17.2 PER, which for that season was higher than that of a rookie Derrick Rose. Big Z was 84 years old and still posted an 18.0 PER. Taken away from LeBron, how has life worked out for these guys? The same would be true of the Bulls, and people who understand basketball and how NBA teams are built and work understand that reality.

    Always remember, the greatness of Magic Johnson is not just that he has five titles and made the Finals nine times in twelve years, it was that when he retired James Worthy and Byron Scott did too. They just kept showing up for a few years and were stunned by why a career 55 percent shooter was suddenly below 45 percent. No player left a Magic Johnson team and became more efficient. Forget the numbers, he revived careers and made careers for those around him. That is what Jordan did, Shaq did, and LeBron did. That is greatness. Derrick Rose is doing this. Joakim Noah stunk to high heaven as a rookie, but he has developed nicely since Rose arrived and is now a $60 million energy big man who is not guarded at all outside the paint. Any team with a defensive clue zones off him and helps with Rose, but that gets overlooked because Derrick handles it so well. Luol Deng was a middling small forward who had a career year in his contract season but went back to being middling in 2008. He was always hurt and not always interested. His past two seasons have been his best for EFG% and TFG% How many spots would Taj Gibson get nothing but wide open 15-footers and praised for hitting about 2 out of 5? How many places would Omer Asik, and his frying pan hands, be able to see the floor? The guy is the Turkish Kwame Brown. If you can get him not drop the ball in a spot where he can dunk it, he is okay, but asking for anything more can get you in trouble. Would Keith Bogans be playing anywhere else? Have I missed the guy Rose has that is in anyway close to what Russell Westbrook has in Kevin Durant? Does he have Wade and Bosh? Does he have Pau or Lamar? You have to look at the bigger picture.

    I like numbers, I understand numbers quite well, but if you take them out of the context of what is happening you are a fool. You end up with the nonsense Hollinger spewed about all those garbage stat stuffers on garbage teams in the West being All-Star caliber players. You end up with his nonsense about Minnesota possibly having the best forward duo in the NBA.

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  • #515931
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    Really glad these guys are here. Look beyond Hollinger’s usually one sided and PER reliant articles people. It would be one thing is Derrick Rose was not the best player bar none on an East leading team, but he is. I respect the fact that Hollinger feels this way, and that you people may too. But he leaves out a lot in his argument, way more than he put in. I think these have been some nice counterpoints to his arguments for Dwight.  

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  • #515945
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    APex
    Participant

    We all know Rose makes his team mates better in that way as well as any other superstar, howard, but we can’t say to what degree. Trying to prove how much he actually makes his teammates better from an abstract PoV is like trying to prove god exists. There is nothing behind it only speculation. Yeah he gets them open shots because he is the most dangerous guy on their team, but the thing you’re leaving out is DEFENSE. Do I believe that Rose puts his teammates over the top to make them one of the top defensive team in the league? No. You rave about how much Rose makes his teammates better and get them open shots, blah, blah, but their defense is the reason why they are relevant. Chemisty has an effect on defense, but we can’t say to what degree that is outside the system. And comparing Rose to LeBron, Shaq, Jordan, and Magic is just wrong. Give Rose more years in the league and let the hype prove itself before go making comparisons like that. Really that doesn’t even prove that Rose is more valuable than Howard. He carries that team’s defense and he is an efficient player on his own right. The main reason his team isn’t better is because he doesn’t have the team defense around him and that goes beyond what a single player can do.

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  • #515961
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    Why is he not more assertive on offense? No one has answered this question. Yes, I have a higher standard for Dwight Howard being an MVP candidate than him averaging 23 and 14. His defense is fantastic, he will win an award for it. But, his overall play leaves a lot to be desired. His team is in no way as bad as Hollinger is making it out to be. Jason Richardson was playing a big role on a play-off team last year. Turkoglu may have gained some lbs, but was he not a major role on their finals team 2 years ago? Jameer Nelson made an All-Star team. Yes, Dwight was a part in this, but is he now a part of their demise as well? Why are they suddenly worse players? 

    It just so happened, they have made some bad trades and have not built a team around Howard as well as the Bulls did around Rose. Ultimately, Rose’s team will play a part in him winning the MVP, but the guy has been a killer this year. The thing with other guys Hollinger mentioned is that it was much easier to argue against their candidacy than the candidacy of Rose. The Bulls are building something much more serious than any of those former MVP’s teams. I find what he is doing this year much more impressive than what any of them did as well.

    Yes, Dwight has put up some nice numbers and is the best Center in the league. But, I have much higher standards for him being the MVP due to the fact that other big men who have won the award have either had more gaudy numbers and/or won more games. Dwight is having his best season, but is everyone satisfied with this being Dwight’s best? Do you not think he should be better considering his competition and his utter athletic advantage over any of them? I think Derrick Rose and LeBron James have lead their teams to better records and have had flat out better seasons all things considered. Maybe my standards for Dwight are too high, but I know my NBA history and the history of this award, and you are getting a flawed view from Hollinger in this article.

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  • #516465
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    ItsVictorOladipo
    Participant

    Alright I am huge Diwght Howard fan, as my name suggests, and personally he would get my vote for MVP this year. But he probably won’t win MVP for the main reason that Jason Kidd didn’t win MVP in 2003 or Iverson in 2005 and 2006. It’s not because of the "storyline" or about the underdog winning it all. Based on past history of the MVP vote it’s probably because the Bulls have more wins.

    In 2005 the 76ers won only 43 games and in 2006 they won only 38. Of course AI wasn’t in serious contention for the MVP despite crazy numbers. Likewise Kidd’s Nets in 2003 won 49 games, good for second in the East but only 8th place in the league. Not to mention Tim Duncan won the MVP that season for the second year in a row; If the voters were all about awarding the MVP to the best storyline why would they have given the award to the boring big man over the exciting highlight reel underdogs like Kidd, Nash, McGrady and Kobe who all put up MVP caliber statistics? 

    A matter of fact of the last 34 MVP winners, a staggering 30 of them were on teams which either finished 1st in their conference or among the top 2 in the league. The only exceptions being Nash winning his 2nd MVP with 54 wins (still good enough for the 4th best record in the league), MJ winning his first MVP in 1988 with 50 wins, and Moses Malone winning his first two MVPs with 46 and 47 wins in 1979 and 1982.

    The Bulls are in 1st place in the East second place in the league and 7.5 games ahead of the eight place Magic. As much as it pains me to admit it the Magic have regressed this year from the two previous seasons despites Dwight’s improved performance. I have no doubt in my mid that if the Magic were even within a couple of games of the Bulls that Dwight would be considered the favourite. However as the voters have proven in the past, wins are a major factor in the MVP race and Rose has the clear edge there.

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  • #516470
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    mikeyvthedon
    Participant

    Kicked knowledge my friend. I think even if the Magic were competing for a top 3 spot in conference, or especially leading that Southeast, Dwight would be the favorite. But, I do not think the Magic are as poor of a team as Hollinger insisted that they are. Personally, I think that amazing statistical seasons from players on mediocre teams should qualify them for the MVP, which is why I think Kobe should have won it in 2006 and Iverson in 2004 (As opposed to 2001 for Iverson, I think Shaq should have won back-to-back). My reasoning, those teams were awful teams that Kobe and Iverson made respectable with huge seasons.

    I think record in this case plays a huge deal in this years vote. Rose’s team did gain some major additions, and has clearly become a better team, and of course you take Miami into account as well. Still, Orlando finished ahead of Boston last year, and their team really changed ever so slightly before the early season trades, when the team was struggling mightily. Dwight Howard is a great player, a rare player, and the best Center in the league bar none. But, can you honestly say he has had a dominant year when you look at everything involved? His stats are awesome, but his team is 47-28 and 5 games behind the 3 seed in the conference. Even Dwight’s efficiency level in comparison to Rose does not make up for that in my mind.

    It is incredibly difficult to calculate value, you can not measure whether Derrick Rose’s lack of defense is worse than Dwight Howard’s lack of an offensive game (an improving one, but again 13.5 shots per game! How does this happen when you have Dwight Howard on your team? His 12 FT’s per game do not make up for this, he should at least be getting 16-17 shots per game, ridiculous.). I for one am just flat out more impressed with what Derrick Rose has done this year. He has one All-Star level player and a couple solid ones, a better bench than Howard and he has used that to grab the top spot in the conference by a couple games. He plays well in big games and BTPH points out incredibly well that the statistics saying his offensive presence makes little difference off of the court are definitely taken out of context. He is the Bulls offense at times, and he has been fantastic in that role. When I look at Derrick Rose’s season, I think what he has accomplished has made him by far the most deserving candidate of MVP this year. I might be buying into the story, but no more than the people who bought into this Hollinger story hook line and sinker.

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  • #516475
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    andxxx
    Participant

     Derrick Rose is the mvp as of right now the reason being is noone is definitively above him this year.  You look at Dwight howard sure he does alot for his team defensively and offensively even more than Derrick Rose, but at the same time he could be scoring more for his team and his team is in 4th place in the east if the Magic were a top 3 seed in the east I would probably give it to him over Drose but that isn’t the case.  Kobe has come up lately but he is simply not more deserving than Derrick Rose is this year.  People basically make the argument that the Lakers are winning now so its obviously because of Kobe, actually the reason the Lakers are winning is because Bynum is healthy and Gasol is playing well as well as the rest of the Lakers’ roster.  Not to pile on Kobe but he’s shooting 43% from the field since the all star break and 32% from the three.  Derrick Rose isn’t doing much better since the all star break, but he’s had the better overall year.  Now Lebron is in much the same situation as Dwight if the Heat had a better record than the bulls he would probably be MVP.  People want to say Dwade but why should another great player stop u from having an mvp. Magic had Kareem and Worthy, Jordan had Scottie, Bird had Mchale and Parrish.  Lebron is second in the league in scoring while shooting 51% from the field and is averaging 28ppg since all star break and shooting 57% which is rediculous especially for a perimeter player.  He’s not winning mvp because the Heat are playing below expectations and ppl for whatever reason feel Dwade should cancel him out so there’s that…

    Anyway Derrick Rose is the mvp and though he isn’t one of the best MVP’s in NBA history he’s certainly not the worst.  Derrick Rose is the front runner for MVP right now and if he wins it he deserves it.

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