[JoeWolf1]

It’s that time of the year again, and here are my pre-season picks in terms of rookie production. Enjoy, or don’t enjoy. 🙂

2014

Joel Embiid – 20 mpg 12.7 ppg 7.1 rpg .5 apg 1.4 bpg .4 spg FG/46 3PT/25 FT/77
Dario Saric – 22 mpg 8.1 ppg 4.3 rpg 1.7 apg .25 bpg .5 spg FG/44 3PT/31 FT/84

2016

Ben Simmons (no minute restriction past injury) – 30 mpg 14 ppg 8.1 rpg 5.5 apg .5 bpg 1.4 spg FG/46 3PT/28 FT/67
Brandon Ingram – 25.3 ppg 8.1 ppg 2.9 rpg 1.1 apg .9 bpg .6 spg FG/43 3PT/34 FT/72
Jaylen Brown – 19 mpg 7.7 ppg 3.3 rpg 1.2 apg 1 spg .35 bpg FG/44 3PT/24 FT/69
Dragan Bender – 20.1 mpg 5.5 ppg 4.1 rpg .9 apg 1.2 bpg .4 spg FG/42 3PT/30 FT/68
Kris Dunn – 24 mpg 7.6 ppg 3.3 rpg 4.5 apg .25 bpg 1.5 spg FG/44 3PT/20 FT/65
Buddy Hield – 28 mpg – 14.5 ppg 4.1 rpg 2.1 apg .3 bpg 1 spg FG/43 3PT/38 FT/88
Jamal Murray – 25 mpg – 11.8 ppg 3.4 rpg 3.3 apg .2 bpg 1 spg FG/41 3PT/36 FT/87
Marquese Chriss – 28 mpg – 12.1 ppg 6.6 rpg .4 apg 1.4 bpg 1.0 spg FG/44 3PT/31 FT/64
Jakob Poeltl – 13.8 mpg – 4.3 ppg 3.8 rpg .3 apg .3 bpg .2 spg FG/55 3PT/0 FT/58
Thon Maker – 15.4 mpg – 4.4 ppg 3.2 rpg .4 apg .7 bpg .3 spg FG/44 3PT/32 FT/77
Domas Sabonis – 19 mpg – 6.1 ppg 3.4 rpg 1.5 apg .4 bpg .4 spg FG/45 3PT/31 FT/79
Taurean Prince – 23 mpg – 8.2 ppg 4.4 rpg .5 apg .5 bpg FG/47 3PT/33 FT/75
George Papagiannis – 9 mpg – 2.5 ppg 2 rpg .3 apg .3 bpg .1 spg FG/45 3P%/0 FT/60
Denzel Valentine – 10 mpg – 3.3 ppg 1.3 rpg 1.3 apg .1 bpg .2 spg FG/39 3PT/28 FT/77
Juan Hernangomez – 15.5 mpg – 4.6 ppg 3.1 rpg 1 apg FG/41 3PT/32 FT/70
Wade Baldwin – 18 mpg – 7 ppg 2.1 rpg 3.5 apg .1 bpg .7 spg FG/39 3PT/32 FT/75
Henry Ellenson – 9 mpg – 3 ppg 1.7 rpg .3 apg .1 bpg .2 spg FG/40 3PT/30 FT/72
Malik Beasley – 13 mpg – 4.1 ppg 1.7 rpg .6 apg .1 bpg .3 spg FG/39 3PT33 FT/77
Caris LeVert – 20 mpg – 8.2 ppg 2.1 rpg 2.3 apg .1 bpg .6 spg FG/43 3PT/37 FT/81
DeAndre’ Bembry – 16 mpg – 5.6 ppg 1.6 rpg 1.4 apg .1 bpg .5 spg FG/42 3PT/25 FT/66
Malachi Richardson – 14.5 mpg – 4.4 ppg 2 rpg .6 apg .15 bpg .3 spg FG/39 3PT/33 FT/69
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – 14 mpg – 3.3 ppg 1.5 rpg .8 apg .1 bpg .2 spg FG/38 3PT/33 FT/70
Brice Johnson – 8 mpg – 2 ppg 2 rpg .2 apg .3 bpg .1 spg FG/50 3PT/0 FT/73
Pascal Siakam – 16 mpg – 5.8 ppg 4.1 rpg .8 apg 1 bpg .5 spg FG/51 3PT/0 FT/61
Skal Labissiere – 12 mpg – 2.7 ppg 2.5 rpg .5 apg .8 bpg .2 spg FG/44 3PT/25 FT/60
DeJounte Murray – 9 mpg – 3.5 ppg 1.4 rpg 1.5 apg .1 bpg .4 spg FG/38 3PT/33 FT/66
Damian Jones – 5 mpg – 1 ppg 1 rpg .1 apg .2 bpg .1 spg FG/45 3PT/0 FT/60

2nd Round Rotation Predictions

Tyler Ulis – 15 mpg – 5.8 ppg 1.5 rpg 2.3 apg 0 bpg .9 spg FG/35 3PT/36 FT/80
Patrick McCaw – 16 mpg – 6.2 ppg 2.5 rpg 2.5 apg .1 bpg 1 spg FG/43 3PT/35 FT/80
Malcolm Brogdon – 18 mpg – 6.3 ppg 3.1 rpg 2 apg .5 bpg 1.2 spg FG/39 3PT/34 FT/83

[The GoatParticipant]

well.. for predicting 5 categories of stats to the tenths of a unit for the rookie class, you get an A for effort

 

I’ll go on a limb and say I think the all rookie 1st team will be Embiid, Simmons, Hield, Dunn and Chriss. The first injury will wipe out Simmons for too long g, so I’ll say Hield or Embiid for rookie of the year. 

I like Luwawu Carrabot for the Sixers, I think he’ll be second team with Ingram, Saric, Brown and Maker. 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

Luwawu Carrabot has certainly had his moments this preseason, but I think when the regular season rolls around you’ll see guys like Gerald Henderson (who’s only averaging 13.8 mpg in the preseasaon) as well as Robert Covington see an uptick in minutes per game. Even a guy like Jerami Grant who occasionally plays at the 3 could effect his minutes as well.

I think he has a nice future, but I just don’t think he’ll see the 22.3 mpg he’s seen in the preseason.

Philly is a wild card, but I think the fact that they actually signed vets this season is a shift in mentality, but you never know. Just my reasoning behind the prediction.

[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 I agree with your Ingram predictions.. I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed with him with how lofty peoples expectations were predraft. Theres simply only one basketball on a court and with all the chuckers LA has I can’t see him getting that many shots.

[Dr.RedParticipant]

This is a great list, and I always enjoy Joe’s preseason predictions!

I see things going a bit different for a few guys, but overall solid. 

First, I don’t think Rich Paul will let Ben Simmons suit up until, at least, after the All-star break, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sits for the year. Thus, I  doubt his impact will be very significant, but he may end up with some nice numbers at year’s end.

Dunn looks just awful at running the point, in my honest opinion. I thought so when he was in college, and I definitely think so now. And so far, he is making Ricky Rubio look like a good shooter. I think he could make a solid SG (combo off the bench?), but I just don’t like him at PG.

I doubt Papagiannis sees the floor this year. But here are some predictions from me:

2014

Joel Embiid – 25 mpg 14.8 ppg 8.3 rpg 0.2 apg 1.2 bpg .3 spg FG/41 3PT/18 FT/71
Dario Saric – 23 mpg 7.6 ppg 4.4 rpg 1.3 apg 0.1 bpg .9 spg FG/45 3PT/32 FT/83

2016

Ben Simmons (if he plays at all) – 24 mpg – 12.3 ppg 6.1 rpg 4.4 apg 1.1 bpg 1.2 spg FG/42 3PT/23FT/62
Brandon Ingram – 27 mpg – 8.4 ppg 2.8 rpg 1.0 apg 0.7 bpg 0.5 spg FG/46 3PT/34 FT/69
Jaylen Brown – 19 mpg – 5.7 ppg 2.9 rpg 0.5 apg 0.6 spg 0.5 bpg FG/40 3PT/17 FT/64
Dragan Bender – 18 mpg – 4.6 ppg 3.2 rpg 1.1 apg 1.1 bpg 0.4 spg FG/45 3PT/32 FT/68
Kris Dunn – 21 mpg – 6.6 ppg 2.3 rpg 3.1 apg 0.2 bpg 2.1 spg FG/32 3PT/17 FT/63
Buddy Hield – 28 mpg – 11.5 ppg 3.2 rpg 2.0 apg 0.1 bpg 1.0 spg FG/45 3PT/36 FT/82
Jamal Murray – 24 mpg – 10.1 ppg 2.8 rpg 2.7 apg 0.2 bpg 0.9 spg FG/43 3PT/35 FT/86
Marquese Chriss – 26 mpg – 9.6 ppg 5.8 rpg 0.3 apg 1.2 bpg 0.9 spg FG/48 3PT/26 FT/66

Thon Maker – 13 mpg – 4.2 ppg 3.0 rpg 0.8 apg 1.0 bpg 0.6 spg FG/42 3PT/30 FT/70
Domas Sabonis – 22 mpg – 6.9 ppg 4.6 rpg 2.3 apg 0.6 bpg 0.6 spg FG/46 3PT/28 FT/76
Taurean Prince – 21 mpg – 7.8 ppg 3.4 rpg 1.0 apg 0.4 bpg FG/44 3PT/30 FT/71

2nd Round Rotation Predictions

Tyler Ulis – 11 mpg – 3.8 ppg 1.2 rpg 2.1 apg 0.1 bpg 0.9 spg FG/42 3PT/31 FT/81
Patrick McCaw – 13 mpg – 4.2 ppg 2.1 rpg 2.2 apg 0.1 bpg 0.7 spg FG/48 3PT/38 FT/80

 

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Joe Wolf did it again.  You gotta stop posting here you should get paid for this content. 

I believe that lately every year its been harder for rookies to make an impact quickly. Theres so much talent in the league nowadays for someone to have a rookie season like Towns did may not happen again for a while.

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Haha, thanks. I know, man. A lot of these rookies have bright futures but will have to wait a year or two to really get a big role. 

[akhan786Participant]

 I agree with the Ingram projections.

 Given his passive nature and tendency to have a large learning curve whenever he is at a new level (he took maybe twenty games to start looking like the #2 pick at Duke) I feel like we won’t see Ingram break out until his second year in the league once he gets a lot more comfortable with the speed and physicality of the NBA.

And you’ll only start seeing real flashes of his potential probably after the All-Star break which in my opinion could mean he misses the Rookie game.

 

 

[UncledrewParticipant]

Ingram is the number 2 pick in the draft who went to the Lakers and played a one and done season for Duke. He’s been hyped to be the next kevin durant type, barring a major injury he will play in the Rookie game but that’s a good projection of his learning curve.

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 While I think it’s plausible that ingram will struggle early, I think he will gradually get more playing time and play a bigger role as the year goes on. The Lakers aren’t likely going to win a lot of games. Once they are officially out of the playoff race, their focus will shift to developing their younger players. I think a projection of about 11.9 ppg 4.3 rpg 1.8 apg 1.1 spg 0.7 bpg 41 fg 31 3pt 75 ft in 28 mpg is more likely.

Most of your predictions seem pretty reasonable to me. I think you are being a little generous with your expectations for chriss out of the gate though. I also think your projections for saric might be a little on the low side, particularly with Simmons likely to miss a large portion of the season. If embiid can play a full season and put up those stats in 20 mins a night it would be a huge accomplishment based on what he’s been through the past 2 years.

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Luol Deng is just such a pro, I had a hard time thinking Ingram will get 28 mpg. Now, Deng is a really old 30 with him only playing 1 year of college, and having Thibs ride him for 40 minutes a game for his prime, so if he were to get hurt or banged up, I could see LA sliding Ingram into a larger role. I think for 28 mpg your predictions are solid. 

As for Dario, I based his predictions due to what I saw of him in the Olympics. He didn’t seem like too aggressive of a scorer, but he absolutely touched the game in every aspect. I cited Lamar Odom’s rookie year, early career Boris Diaw, Detlef Schrempf, and prime Josh McRoberts (In Charlotte, was a guy who I thought Dario compared to right now, when I watched the Olympics) as guys I thought he compared to from a style standpoint. The 6ers will be a crap shoot, haha.

[Magic JordanParticipant]

 I imagine Ingram will get plenty of playing time when after the first month of basketball it becomes blatantly obvious that he is already, far and away the Lakers best defender.  He has already shown that in preseason and as he gets more comfortable it will be even clearer.  I ultimately don’t think more playing time ups his stats too much from what Joe predicted.  But the time will be there.

[brodiejayParticipant]

Great predictions Joe. I find it hard to disagree with any of them! Gotta agree with dazzling dunks that Saric might be one of the very few that might be a little low given Simmons’ injury. He makes smart basketball plays and distributes well, which I think will earn respect (and playing time) from Brett Brown.

 

I actually agree with your prediction for Chriss. He’s looked really good in the preseason and after watching interviews with him, he seems VERY intelligent and a "high-character" guy. Usually those type of players (especially those with his upside) earn some court time through their willingness to listen and take on board instruction.

 

I’m interested to hear Joe’s ROY prediction. Based on your stat predictions, I’m guessing Hield or Embiid?

 

 

 

 

[Andrew1984Participant]

 If you’re right, then my immediate post-draft prediction of Buddy Hield winning ROY has a good chance, depending on the number of games Simmons misses.

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

 chriss seems to be more aggressive and a much better rebounder than he showed at washington..and those were the 2 things scouts questioned..

[2quick4uParticipant]

 great job.. do you have the steals and turnovers for taurean prince and kris dunn¿? just for the fantasy you know 🙂

[BallerScriptParticipant]

 I only did points/rebounds/assists

• Ben Simmons (pre-injury) | 13.6ppg, 8.7rpg, 5.9apg
• Brandon Ingram | 13.9ppg, 4.4rpg, 2.9apg
• Jaylen Brown | 7.5ppg, 4.3rpg, 2.4 apg
• Dragan Bender | 7.4ppg, 4.1rpg, 1.4apg
• Kris Dunn | 12.9ppg, 4.2rpg, 5.8apg
• Buddy Hield | 15.2ppg, 4.5rpg, 1.8apg
• Jamal Murray | 11.4ppg, 3.2rpg, 2.9apg
• Marquese Chriss | 8.2ppg, 5.1rpg, 0.5apg
• Jakob Poeltl | 7.4ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.9apg
• Thon Maker | 5.5ppg. 3.3rpg, 0.7apg
• Denzel Valentine | 8.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.4 apg
• Wade Baldwin | 8.5ppg, 2.7rpg, 3.8apg
• Dejounte Murray | 2.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.1 apg
• Joel Embiid | 10.1 ppg,  6.1 rpg, 0.4 apg
• Dario Saric | 11.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.3 apg

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

 Thanks guys, I’d have to think Buddy is my pick for ROY because I feel the Pelicans could bounce back a bit in terms of winning.

I’m a huge Joel fan, but I feel that with his minute restrictions it will be difficult for him to win ROY. I would have put Simmons until his foot injury. I feel his 30 mpg prediction could even be a little high given their handling of Noel and Embiid. 

 

[DolanCareParticipant]

If Patrick Mcgraw plays 16 minutes a game on Golden, that will mean he is very good basketball.  

[JoeWolf1]

They lost Brandon Rush (14.7 mpg) and Leandro Barbosa 15.9) to free agency, and while I expect Ian Clark (8.8 mpg) to make up a portion of that, I still like McCaw’s chances over training camp invitees Elliot Williams and Flip Pressey. I could be wrong, but he’s had a hell of a preseason and seems to have meshed well with the team.

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