Should Bol Bol be considered a lottery prospect?

SwatLakeCity
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Should Bol Bol be considered a lottery prospect?

From a talent/potential standpint, absolutely. But what concerns me the most is his inability to stay on the floor. How can you justisy all that talent, if he can't even stay on the floor for more than 20 minutes? Look at recent years (2016-2018) there has always been players with injury concerns that end up dropping way more than we expected. Caris Levert was a lottery prospect in 2016 but when injury concerns came up he dropped all the way to 20! Same thing for Harry Giles in 2017 who dropped to 20 as well, then in 2018 there were 3 players with injury concerns and they all dropped! Michael Porter Jr. dropped from potential top 5 pick to 14, Robert Williams dropped from late lottery prospect, I believe, to 27, and Mitchell Robinson dropped from mid first round to 36.

Some of these drops were justified because it turns out the player isn't as good as originally thought (Harry Giles). Some the jury is still out on (Micahael Porter Jr, Robert Williams) And 2 of them turned out to be just what we expected and probably should have gone higher (Caris Levert and Mitchell Robinson) But regardless, all 5 of them ended up dropping due to injury concerns.

Bol Bol is that injury potential prospect player this year, yet I've heard many people insist that he is going in the lottery. How can you justify that when in the last 4 years, we've seen these potential injury concern players drop and in most cases significantly? If say, the Hawks take him at 10 or even 8, risking it all, how can they justify it when it turns out he has to sit out his rookie year and then barely plays his next couple years! I mean I think we can all agree he's not the next Joel Embiid. Right now, I have Bol Bol as the 19 pick and depending on the results of the draft combine when the injury red-flagged players come out, I may not move him at all!

I think many of us should do the same in our mock drafts, (dropping him in most cases) as many NBA GM's will wonder if its worth the risk when the injury concerns are definitely there.


Arc12345
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Yes

1. Mitchell Robinson had no injury history and didn't drop to the second round because of that. It's because he didn't play competitive basketball for a year when he left WKU. Bad call for everyone that scared off and who passed on him.

2. Like you said, MPJ has a signficantly worse personal injury history and family injury history (his sister, his brother, and probably both parents). As someone in the medical field, genetics plays a massive role in this. I'm willing to bet almost everything that unfortunately, MPJ will have a signficant injury again and probably sooner rather than later. My point: if that wasn't enough to scare teams away, I don't think Bol's less serious injury history will scare teams away.

3. I believe Bol is a better prospect than virtually everyone you've mentioned except maybe a completely healthy MPJ. He can shoot, he's beyond long, can but the ball on the floor a bit, and can protect the rim. He's an incredibly unique prospect.

Like I've said before, I think my Hawks could do much worse than rolling the dice on Bol with the 8th or 10th pick if he's available. I'm not saying he's Joel Embiid (physically Embiid is so gifted if he can stay healthy), but he could very well be worth waiting to allow his body to heal if that is what is required.

SwatLakeCity
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Are we certain that he has less serious injury potential?

True, about Mitchell Robinson, must have accidently thought he had injury concerns because he dropped big time. My Bad.

But still the same is true with the other 4 players. Are we certain that Bol Bol has less serious injury potential than MPJ? What if its similar to Caris Levert? He still dropped to 20. I think until we know more we have to leave him out of the lottery, and depeding on what happens come draft combine, it may turn better just to keep him there.

Arc12345
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I disagree

Again, why does MPJ get to still be a lottery pick but Bol does not? Bol was also significantly more impressive in his small sample size than MPJ in college (also a small sample size).

I personally believe he has less injury potential for the reasons I explained above: genetics. Obviously there is no way to know this for certain about Bol as I don't know what his siblings injury history is. BUT, I do know it's harder to have a worse familial injury history than the Porter's.

SwatLakeCity
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Not talking about his family history

I'm not talking about his family history. I'm talking about his body, can it hold up to the rigors of the NBA with bodies constantly fliying around? I've read reports about him on other sites that say he has a tendency to get injured too quickly. He's not the next Embiid so I think we have to take it all with a grain of salt and wait until we know more which will likely be around the draft combine.

Arc12345
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You're dense

No $hit we're talking about his body. If you refuse to understand how family history made MPJ more of a risk than Bol, then I don't know what to tell you.

If MPJ is a lottery pick, I see no reason why Bol shouldn't be. That was my entire point about bringing up family history. I will try and make my point clearer: MPJ WAS STILL A LOTTERY PICK DESPITE ALL OF THE INJURY RED FLAGS THAT WERE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN BOL'S.

Where did you read these reports on other sites? Clearly you're just a Bol hater.

SmooveKRYPT
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Bol had 1 injury. Levert had

Bol had 1 injury. Levert had 3 to the same leg during college, I don't see how there's a comparison. He's also right about the Porter family as a whole. Both sisters were forced into medical retirement, his brother got hurt after 1 college season, and Michael did right away in his first college season. Manute Bol wasn't injury prone, so you can't compare really it to the Porter's either.

MJBrown
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Im in total agreement

There is such a huge disparity in talent after pick number 3, why not take a flyer right away. If' I have the 4th pick, I'm looking hard at Bol Bol. IMO, guys like Hunter, Culver and Reddish have an opportunity to be nice NBA players, but when I'm drafting that high, I want a potential star. I couldn't pass on Bol Bol. And hey, if I'm wrong and he never pans out, at least I went for the best talent, and try again next year in a draft which is much deeper. At the end of the day, IMO, I'm not taking a player at 4 who I don't think has a chance to be a star. Its a chance I'd be willing to take

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Bol Bol

With the number of quality centers in the NBA, the only guys who should be drafted in the lottery should be two-way guys who could conceivably be top 10 centers for the majority of their careers. It's simply too easy to plug in a Kevon Looney or a Dewayne Dedmon and get reasonable enough production. Bol Bol actually has a reasonable path to being a top 10 center if he doesn't get injured, and in a weak class like this, he is worth the risk in the lottery.

As an Atlanta fan, I hope we grab him at 8 or 10. Collins can't defend centers and Bol would space the floor for the Young/Collins pick and roll. A lot of people have Hayes going here, and he would just clog the lane for everyone.

People will always talk themselves into draft classes, but anything after #3 I would trade down and try and get more assets. People are talking themselves into Culver, but I'm not sure he can shoot. Hunter lacks explosion and could max out to average to above average starter. Reddish can't finish at the rim. Garland and White lack vision and defense (and I'm a UNC fan too). Langford and Little can't shoot (yet). Hachimura can't pass or defend. Doumbouya is incredibly raw. The only guys outside of the top 3 I really trust to be good are Culver, Clarke, Grant Williams, Jontay Porter, and Chuma Okeke, and a lot of that is based on defense and IQ. I don't even think Morant or RJ go earlier than #8 last year.

If Bol Bol lives up to his potential he defends the paint like Gobert (who also looked raw at this age) and hits threes like Channing Frye. That's a top 5 guy in the class easily.

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What is rare is centers who

What is rare is centers who hit 3’s and who actually protect the rim, altering shots. You can count those guys on your hand.

Everything has to go right for him to be what they hope he can be, but you have to take a few risks. Like someone else said, I’d take him 4th to 8th. No way he goes lower.

mowesten
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There's really only two

There's really only two unicorns in the upcoming draft, Zion and Bol Bol. You have to see him play in person to understand how long he really is -- it's insane. He's a skilled player who is a little raw, but can pass, handle it a little and can shoot from 3 ... and, he's an elite level shot blocker.

There are definitely a lot of questions about him, mostly centering around strength, health and motor, but he has a tremendously high ceiling.

juves4783
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yes

size/skill combo that bol has is hard to find. there are a lot of teams that are fringe contenders that don't need a contributor right away. can give bol the embiid treatment for the reward of his potential down the road.

i just don't see how bol falls out of the lottery unless the mid-round talents have phenomenal combine/workouts.

kobyz
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Someone in the lottery for

Someone in the lottery for sure will gamble and grab him, best destination for might be Minnesota, where he could start without asking for much playing longsode franchise big in KAT...

Memphis Madness
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I've got Bol Bol one. I've

I've got Bol Bol one. I've got Ja Morant at 8.

Last year I had Mitch Rob at 1 (and Jaren "still not sure how I would play him" Jackson at 33).

Yeah, the Grizzlies message board loves me. lol

faithnomuz
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I'd take him as early as 4

I'd take him as early as 4 and no later than 8. So, yes.

Hitster
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I've said for a long time he

I've said for a long time he is the wildcard a bit like Thon Maker a few years ago where his draft status on mocks was all over the place. The days of teams taking a plunge on a big like Seattle with Sene in around 2006 may be long gone but there is still the old adage you cannot team size and with all these shooters around today a shot altering big man can be a huge factor.

A lot will depend on his workouts and if he goes up against the other bigs in these as whoever comes out on top could shoot up the mocks. I just don't see him slipping out of the lottery if he does decent workouts given the Hawks having two picks, Miami at 13 and Boston at 14. The likes of Reilly and Ainge are proven talent finders so would both these two guys pass on someone like him?

Washington at 9 would be a nice story too. His father started his career there and I believe he lived in the area when he sadly passeed away, so they might take a look at least.

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This is a weak draft. Its

This is a weak draft. Its worth it to swing for the fences. Bol Bol could easily end up the best player in this draft. All he has to do is stay somewhat healthy and he becomes one of the most intriguing young players quite literally in NBA history.

Kwame33
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We really gunna say Giles

We really gunna say Giles isn’t good after one year?

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