[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Warren Buffet is offering up $1 billion to anyone who can pick a perfect bracket.  Guys like Warren say that the odds of getting a bracket right is Eleventy Godzillian to One or whatever.  I just say, hey, you either get it right or you don’t.

BUT, the Buffet math would include scenarios of four 16 seeds making the Final Four — that PROBABLY WON’T HAPPEN.  A 16 seed has never even beaten a top seed ONCE.  So if that trend holds, the odds of getting a perfect bracket goes up. 

What could kill a perfect bracket this year is a 15 seed going to the Sweet 16 this year — like what Florida Gulf Coast did last year.  But, that rarely happens.  15 seeds don’t even win ONE game that much.  So, if 15 seeds go 0-4 (which they probably will) you should be in good shape.

To me, the Billion Dollar Bracket Busters are in that 13-14 range.  If a bunch of those teams win a game, then perfection could be denied.  If those teams don’t do well (if they all lose in the first game) then a billion bucks will still be on the table.

I think one of those 13-14 teams could win a game, BUT I don’t see them getting as far as the Elite 8 or maybe even the Sweet 16.  A DEEP sleeper getting to the Elite 8 would bust brackets — that RARELY happens.  But if they don’t get any farther then the Sweet 16 then I think you could be ok. 

I even think that teams in the 13-16 range MIGHT NOT EVEN WIN ONE GAME TOTAL.  If so, the odds of getting a perfect bracket go up a lot.  It’s survive and advance for picking brackets too.

I think the brackets are TOP HEAVY this year with the good teams being really good, with a drop off in talent after the 10-12 seeds.  I don’t see many vulnerable 2, 3, and 4 seeds — at least in the first round.

On this board, I see a lot of different Final Four picks.  That would help the odds of finding a perfect brackets if no team is on an inordinate amount of Final Four lines.  Pretty good distribution of picks.  I doubt that any two of us here have the same Elite 8.

Yeah, there are some STACKED regions but that just means that certain brackets have different teams advancing.

For instance, in the Midwest, if Kentucky wins their first game, then they play Wichita State for a chance to play Louisville in the Sweet 16.  I would bet that about 30% of brackets have Louisville coming out of those games, with 25% taking Wichita State, and a sizeable number picking Kentucky (20ish percent).  That would cover most of the bases, with some even picking the NC State team getting some upsets.  Or, Kentucky could bow out in the first round, which I am sure many brackets would predict.  That would then favor Wichita State with a Wichita State/Louisville Sweet 16 game being probable.

The South Region is LOADED with a possible Sweet 16 of Florida, UCLA, Syracuse, and Kansas.  The odds of those four teams ALL getting their is less than 100% obviously, but it is not zero.  Stephen F. Austin is a sleeper team in this region, but I picked them to win one game, as did an ESPN guy.  If enough teams pick them as a sleeper then that just means someone is more likely to get the first round of South Region games right.  I also think there will be enough ballots showing four or five or even six different teams coming out of the South (either of the top 4 seeds or a team like Syracuse or New Mexico/Pitt). 

I think there is a lot of parity at the TOP — with lots of good, solid teams.  This would bode well for bracket perfection since there will be a lots of different bracket scenarios picked.

A lack of depth at the BOTTOM of the bracket would mean that fewer STUNNING upsets will occur.  Like a Florida Gulf Coast or Cornell or something.  If no team in that 14-16 range advances, then I think lots of brackets will be alive — at least after the first day or so.  Also, these Cinderella picks won’t screw up brackets if they fail to get past the Sweet 16.  Or, a 12 seed making a DEEP, DEEP run — that would throw off brackets.

The 1 seeds appear to be vulnerable enough that enough people are picking against them (as early as the second round).  The brackets will reflect the odds, with number one seeds neither doing better or worse than their predicted outcomes.  So, I don’t see an inordinate amount of brackets picking all four number one seeds making the Final Four, nor do I see an inordinate amount of brackets picking ZERO top seeds making the Final Four. 

As far as how the tourney plays out, I have Oklahoma St. making the Final Four as an 8th seed.  That is a "Cinderella" as far as seeding goes, but the team is loaded, with a beast in Marcus Smart.  That is the only lowish seed I have in the Final Four.  (I don’t see a double digit seed making it all the way to Dallas).  I have no top seeds in the Final Four, BUT all my teams are very, very solid with a 2, 3, and 4 making up the rest of my Final Four with last year’s champ (Louisville) over Kansas for the title.  I don’t see this being a year for a team like Wichita St., VCU, Butler, or George Mason. 

[ProudGrandpaParticipant]

 No one on any legitimate bracket competition website anywhere has ever gotten a a perfect bracket any year ever.  Or come remotely close.  Even in previous years where 13-16 seeds dont win games.  It’s never gonna happen

[ProudGrandpaParticipant]

 No one on any legitimate bracket competition website anywhere has ever gotten a a perfect bracket any year ever.  Or come remotely close.  Even in previous years where 13-16 seeds dont win games.  It’s never gonna happen

[chrisinozParticipant]

Only 1 person in the past 7 years has correctly guessed just the First round, Great advertising for them with no chance of ever having to give away 1 billion.

And even if you had correctly guessed up until the final 4 im sure they would offer you 10 million to call off the bet.

 

 

 

 

 

[chrisinozParticipant]

Only 1 person in the past 7 years has correctly guessed just the First round, Great advertising for them with no chance of ever having to give away 1 billion.

And even if you had correctly guessed up until the final 4 im sure they would offer you 10 million to call off the bet.

 

 

 

 

 

[ChewyParticipant]

 about 5 years ago I finished the tournament with only 3 games wrong. Every game where I was wrong, that team lost in the next round to the team I had winning. This sucks for 2 reasons:

1. I will never get that close again (certaintely haven’t in the last 5 years)

2. It was the only year in the last decade where I wasn’t in a single pool.

 

The catch with this billion dollar bracket is that I heard you have to fill out all this morgage information just to fill out the bracket (if someone has already filled one out, let me know if this is true) and these major corporations usually are willing to pay anywhere for $30-$500 bucks per person for this information. 200 bucks per person time the 15 million cap on entries equals them getting a ton of vital informatuion for their buisness at a bargain price.

 

 

 

 

[ChewyParticipant]

 about 5 years ago I finished the tournament with only 3 games wrong. Every game where I was wrong, that team lost in the next round to the team I had winning. This sucks for 2 reasons:

1. I will never get that close again (certaintely haven’t in the last 5 years)

2. It was the only year in the last decade where I wasn’t in a single pool.

 

The catch with this billion dollar bracket is that I heard you have to fill out all this morgage information just to fill out the bracket (if someone has already filled one out, let me know if this is true) and these major corporations usually are willing to pay anywhere for $30-$500 bucks per person for this information. 200 bucks per person time the 15 million cap on entries equals them getting a ton of vital informatuion for their buisness at a bargain price.

 

 

 

 

[HOops1562Participant]

It is close to impossible to fill out the perfect bracket …  but you gotta fill one out you never know but odds are terrible one and 9 quintillion you have a better chance of winning the lottery a hundred times  

[HOops1562Participant]

It is close to impossible to fill out the perfect bracket …  but you gotta fill one out you never know but odds are terrible one and 9 quintillion you have a better chance of winning the lottery a hundred times  

[Taylor Gang MikeParticipant]

 Yeah, you gotta do all this mortgage and personal info. But i hope I win.. But I wont

[Taylor Gang MikeParticipant]

 Yeah, you gotta do all this mortgage and personal info. But i hope I win.. But I wont

[Andrew1984Participant]

 The ESPN challenge usually has like 6 million entries and after the first round, the leader is usually only like 28-for-32 in the first round. 

I read recently that the odds of a perfect bracket are similar to a golfer getting a hole-in-one on more on 10 different holes in a round of 18. 

 

[Andrew1984Participant]

 The ESPN challenge usually has like 6 million entries and after the first round, the leader is usually only like 28-for-32 in the first round. 

I read recently that the odds of a perfect bracket are similar to a golfer getting a hole-in-one on more on 10 different holes in a round of 18. 

 

[Bird_YearsParticipant]

 The correct way to figure out the odds of picking a perfect bracket are to assume a high probability when picking a 1 vs 16 seed (say 95%) and then lower that probability towards 50% as the seeds get closer. If you run a simulation by weighting the probabilities like that the odds look much better than 10 hole-in-ones

 

 

[Bird_YearsParticipant]

 The correct way to figure out the odds of picking a perfect bracket are to assume a high probability when picking a 1 vs 16 seed (say 95%) and then lower that probability towards 50% as the seeds get closer. If you run a simulation by weighting the probabilities like that the odds look much better than 10 hole-in-ones

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

The year Florida beat Ohio State for the title I was ranked in the top 40 or so on Facebook before the championship game (I had OSU winning).  I even think I had that VCU game.  The talent was at the top of the brackets that year with the really good teams doing well, with very few upsets. 

The only other time that I picked the last two teams right was in ’08 but I picked Memphis over Kansas.

This year I have Louisville over Kansas. 

I am not sold on any team really, there are 10-15 really solid teams who can win it. 

BUT it is a top heavy year with some really top notch teams.

If you figure that NO 16 seed will win a game, no 15 seed will get to the Elite 8 (and maybe just one to the second round even), no 13 or 14 seed will get to the Final Four, with no 12 seed winning the title (lowest seed to ever win was Villanova as an 8th seed in 1985), the odds look SLIGHTLY better.

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

The year Florida beat Ohio State for the title I was ranked in the top 40 or so on Facebook before the championship game (I had OSU winning).  I even think I had that VCU game.  The talent was at the top of the brackets that year with the really good teams doing well, with very few upsets. 

The only other time that I picked the last two teams right was in ’08 but I picked Memphis over Kansas.

This year I have Louisville over Kansas. 

I am not sold on any team really, there are 10-15 really solid teams who can win it. 

BUT it is a top heavy year with some really top notch teams.

If you figure that NO 16 seed will win a game, no 15 seed will get to the Elite 8 (and maybe just one to the second round even), no 13 or 14 seed will get to the Final Four, with no 12 seed winning the title (lowest seed to ever win was Villanova as an 8th seed in 1985), the odds look SLIGHTLY better.

 

[Andrew1984Participant]

Just winning a bracket pool is a whole different story from getting a perfect bracket. See below:

“I’d love to demystify all this,” said DePaul math professor Jeff Bergen, whose expertise has been in demand this month. “The math involved is quite simple and can be done in a high school class. What blows people away is the magnitude of the numbers. You look at the number ‘9 quintillion’ and it’s hard to wrap your head around it.”

There are a few more than 9.2 quintillion combinations for a 64-team bracket. A quintillion is 1 million times 1 trillion — a 1 with 18 zeros behind it. If every possibility were filled out on its own sheet of paper, the weight of the paper would be 184 trillion tons — more than 500 million times the weight of the Empire State Building.

Bergen calculates that someone with knowledge of basketball — say, someone with the rudimentary smarts to go with every No. 1 seed in their first game, where they are 116-0 over the last 29 years — still only has a 128 billion-1 chance of being perfect.

Buffett’s contest is capped at 15 million entrants, so, Bergen says, if all 15 million sign up and they all have some knowledge of basketball, the odds are still 8,500-1 against a perfect bracket. That’s more than a 99.99 percent chance that everyone will get at least one game wrong.

Sorry, but just assuming 16s don’t beat 1s does not make it a whole lot easier.

[Andrew1984Participant]

Just winning a bracket pool is a whole different story from getting a perfect bracket. See below:

“I’d love to demystify all this,” said DePaul math professor Jeff Bergen, whose expertise has been in demand this month. “The math involved is quite simple and can be done in a high school class. What blows people away is the magnitude of the numbers. You look at the number ‘9 quintillion’ and it’s hard to wrap your head around it.”

There are a few more than 9.2 quintillion combinations for a 64-team bracket. A quintillion is 1 million times 1 trillion — a 1 with 18 zeros behind it. If every possibility were filled out on its own sheet of paper, the weight of the paper would be 184 trillion tons — more than 500 million times the weight of the Empire State Building.

Bergen calculates that someone with knowledge of basketball — say, someone with the rudimentary smarts to go with every No. 1 seed in their first game, where they are 116-0 over the last 29 years — still only has a 128 billion-1 chance of being perfect.

Buffett’s contest is capped at 15 million entrants, so, Bergen says, if all 15 million sign up and they all have some knowledge of basketball, the odds are still 8,500-1 against a perfect bracket. That’s more than a 99.99 percent chance that everyone will get at least one game wrong.

Sorry, but just assuming 16s don’t beat 1s does not make it a whole lot easier.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

It is fun to overanalyze and play around with it, but a perfect bracket is not going to happen. In the modern tournament, there are probably 8-12 games a season that are settled by 3 points or less. They are more or less coin flips. Is it possible to correctly call 10 straight coin flips? Yes, but it is like one-tenth of one percent chance. Even beyond that, you have to either avoid the Marshall Henderson bumming out and Mississippi still beating Wisconsin, Florida Gulf Coast hanging it on Georgetown and San Diego State, Kendall Marshall breaking his wrist, Omar Samhan having a career in a weekend, or any number of instances where an important player picks up two quick fouls and things spiral out of control. You either need to avoid them, or be lucky enough to be on the right side of all those instances. Now, predict the health of Joel Embiid’s back, and figure out which Tennessee team will show up.

Then get into upsets, just the round of 64 mind you.

Over the past twenty years, there are an average of 8.35 first round upsets with a high of 13 (2001) and a low of 4 (2004) and four of the past five having ten (2011 had 7).
They break down like this:
2.05 9s over 8s (three times all four 9-seeds have won and once none did)
1.85 10s over 7s (one time all 10s won, once none did)
1.3 11s over 6s (in 2011 three 11-seeds won, and only twice have none done so)
1.6 12s over 5s (in 2013, 2009, and 2002 three 12-seeds beat a 5, and only in 2007 and 2002 did no one win)
.85 13s over 4s (while only twice has a pair of 13-seeds knocked off 4s in the same year, there have only been five years where it has not happened)
.45 14s over 3s (in 1995 two 14s knocked off a 3, and it has happened twice in the past four years)
.25 15s over 2s (it has happened three times in the past two years after not happened in the previous ten years)

There have only been four years in twenty where all the 2s, 3s, and 4s advance. Who doesn’t love picking a needle out of a haystack?

Seeing as how a person might get killed for saying it is possible that Michigan State or Louisville could lose in the first round, have fun choosing Sim Bhullar and Tshilidzi Nephawe, representing big men, against a San Diego State squad who might only have one guy who weighs more than 210 lbs and is taller than 6′ 8". A couple aggressive whistles that go against Skylar Spencer, and then gamblers everywhere will go nuts seeing Sim Bhullar battling the Fightin’ Liliputians in the paint. That could be a fun pick, probably wrong but fun. Steve Alford has a history of being bad in the tournament. Last year, he lost to 14-seeded Harvard as a 3-seed. In 2010, they snuck past a 14-seeded Montana team (it was a 1-point game with less than 2 minutes to go). In 2006, his 3-seeded Iowa team lost to Northwestern State. Not since he was at SW Missouri State has he been past the round of 32. Hey, Tulsa has won 11 in a row. Then again, UCLA has quite a bit of talent.

Finding a 3-seed to go against is tough. Duke is playing in Raleigh and while flawed seem much too talented to fall in the first round. Iowa State might be the best 6′ 7" and under team in the country and are facing a team just as small as them. Creighton plays Louisiana Lafayette. It is possible for a case to be made. If the game gets up and down, McDermott and Wragge have a bad shooting night, Elfrid Payton gets those poke outs defensively that lead to transition points, and Xavien Rimmer goes something like 7-12 from three which is what was required for them to beat Georgia State, there could be a chance. Here is the problem, and it is funny, during conference games… MCDERMOTT LED THE BIG EAST IN FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE! In Big East games, he led the league in scoring, field goals made, field goal percentage, three point shooting percentage, and three pointers made (though tied with Wragge). Syracuse is playing in Buffalo, which is 150 miles but even more of a home game for Tyler Ennis. Even if they are not as good as their start, they cannot be as bad as losing 5 of their final 7. Yes, they lost close ones, but for the past month the Florida State win is the only game that was not close. Could they be last year’s Michigan (lost six of their final twelve going into the tournament)? Maybe getting out of the ACC is just what they need, or maybe everyone looks like a fool for thinking a team would right themselves in the tournament.

 

Who is going against Wisconsin playing in Milwaukee against a Patriot League team? Kansas played the toughest schedule in the country. Eastern Kentucky played the 280th. They have the same number of losses. Milwaukee was a sub-500 team in Horizon conference play. On the season, they outscored opponents by 16 points total. This after beating Valpo in the conference tournament game by 17. Wofford’s best win was against the RPI’s 166th ranked team Elon.

Good luck with that billion.

[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

It is fun to overanalyze and play around with it, but a perfect bracket is not going to happen. In the modern tournament, there are probably 8-12 games a season that are settled by 3 points or less. They are more or less coin flips. Is it possible to correctly call 10 straight coin flips? Yes, but it is like one-tenth of one percent chance. Even beyond that, you have to either avoid the Marshall Henderson bumming out and Mississippi still beating Wisconsin, Florida Gulf Coast hanging it on Georgetown and San Diego State, Kendall Marshall breaking his wrist, Omar Samhan having a career in a weekend, or any number of instances where an important player picks up two quick fouls and things spiral out of control. You either need to avoid them, or be lucky enough to be on the right side of all those instances. Now, predict the health of Joel Embiid’s back, and figure out which Tennessee team will show up.

Then get into upsets, just the round of 64 mind you.

Over the past twenty years, there are an average of 8.35 first round upsets with a high of 13 (2001) and a low of 4 (2004) and four of the past five having ten (2011 had 7).
They break down like this:
2.05 9s over 8s (three times all four 9-seeds have won and once none did)
1.85 10s over 7s (one time all 10s won, once none did)
1.3 11s over 6s (in 2011 three 11-seeds won, and only twice have none done so)
1.6 12s over 5s (in 2013, 2009, and 2002 three 12-seeds beat a 5, and only in 2007 and 2002 did no one win)
.85 13s over 4s (while only twice has a pair of 13-seeds knocked off 4s in the same year, there have only been five years where it has not happened)
.45 14s over 3s (in 1995 two 14s knocked off a 3, and it has happened twice in the past four years)
.25 15s over 2s (it has happened three times in the past two years after not happened in the previous ten years)

There have only been four years in twenty where all the 2s, 3s, and 4s advance. Who doesn’t love picking a needle out of a haystack?

Seeing as how a person might get killed for saying it is possible that Michigan State or Louisville could lose in the first round, have fun choosing Sim Bhullar and Tshilidzi Nephawe, representing big men, against a San Diego State squad who might only have one guy who weighs more than 210 lbs and is taller than 6′ 8". A couple aggressive whistles that go against Skylar Spencer, and then gamblers everywhere will go nuts seeing Sim Bhullar battling the Fightin’ Liliputians in the paint. That could be a fun pick, probably wrong but fun. Steve Alford has a history of being bad in the tournament. Last year, he lost to 14-seeded Harvard as a 3-seed. In 2010, they snuck past a 14-seeded Montana team (it was a 1-point game with less than 2 minutes to go). In 2006, his 3-seeded Iowa team lost to Northwestern State. Not since he was at SW Missouri State has he been past the round of 32. Hey, Tulsa has won 11 in a row. Then again, UCLA has quite a bit of talent.

Finding a 3-seed to go against is tough. Duke is playing in Raleigh and while flawed seem much too talented to fall in the first round. Iowa State might be the best 6′ 7" and under team in the country and are facing a team just as small as them. Creighton plays Louisiana Lafayette. It is possible for a case to be made. If the game gets up and down, McDermott and Wragge have a bad shooting night, Elfrid Payton gets those poke outs defensively that lead to transition points, and Xavien Rimmer goes something like 7-12 from three which is what was required for them to beat Georgia State, there could be a chance. Here is the problem, and it is funny, during conference games… MCDERMOTT LED THE BIG EAST IN FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE! In Big East games, he led the league in scoring, field goals made, field goal percentage, three point shooting percentage, and three pointers made (though tied with Wragge). Syracuse is playing in Buffalo, which is 150 miles but even more of a home game for Tyler Ennis. Even if they are not as good as their start, they cannot be as bad as losing 5 of their final 7. Yes, they lost close ones, but for the past month the Florida State win is the only game that was not close. Could they be last year’s Michigan (lost six of their final twelve going into the tournament)? Maybe getting out of the ACC is just what they need, or maybe everyone looks like a fool for thinking a team would right themselves in the tournament.

 

Who is going against Wisconsin playing in Milwaukee against a Patriot League team? Kansas played the toughest schedule in the country. Eastern Kentucky played the 280th. They have the same number of losses. Milwaukee was a sub-500 team in Horizon conference play. On the season, they outscored opponents by 16 points total. This after beating Valpo in the conference tournament game by 17. Wofford’s best win was against the RPI’s 166th ranked team Elon.

Good luck with that billion.

[Andrew1984Participant]

There were more than 10 million entries in ESPN’s bracket challenge. Through 19 tournament games, there are only 58 perfect brackets. And we’re barely halfway through the first round.

[Andrew1984Participant]

There were more than 10 million entries in ESPN’s bracket challenge. Through 19 tournament games, there are only 58 perfect brackets. And we’re barely halfway through the first round.

[jonus grumbyParticipant]

I think there are only 15 brackets left

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/group/bdbc

[jonus grumbyParticipant]

I think there are only 15 brackets left

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/group/bdbc

[Author]

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