HACKING the NBA MATRIX (part II)

2quick4u
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HACKING the NBA MATRIX (part II)

In part 1 i tried to explain how every system is inescapably submitted to the general conditions/rules governing and therefore will not perform efficiently unless adapt to them and that's the reason why in the "NBA universe", even the greatest player in history regarded as "god", MJ, would have to humanly kneel down to these universal laws in the 80's and would have to wait until they changed in the 90's to spread his wings and impose his tyranny.

In this part II i will try to explain how to use correctly the variables of the "general equation" of the NBA matrix, in order to hack the system, just by following a simple plan with "3 easy points":

1. SYSTEM vs STARS:

- 1.1. Collective Numbers: It is not about having a super-star on the team nor about having a big 3, 4 or 5 but about having a TEAM that after adding the right pieces, give as result the "collective numbers" needed to succeed- "the sum of the parts make the whole and is never the other way around", because a part can never be bigger than the whole or a "cancer" would occur, disbanding the "chemistry" and destroying therefore the system/team.

. We can clearly see this with the GSW, a team created out of the draft that absolutely revolutionized the game of basketball and after winning the title and breaking the RS record wins, they added a super-star (the best player in planet for most) that has ruined the chemistry, the collective numbers and the identity of the team which is their real weapon, winning 2 titles only due to injuries and because of having the best shooter in history. Let's make it clear if Chris Paul had not got injured last year, the GSW would have lost those series just the same way that if KD had not got injured they would have lost this year again. HOU's system was designed to beat the Warriors with KD, not without out him and it was perfect for that.

- 1.2. "Small shooters" vs "Small ball": now it is not just about playing with 5 small players but about playing with 5 "small efficient shooters"; the Warriors made a leap in the "evolution" of the game and it worked due to having the 2 best shooters in history, but the pace has now increased and will increase even more and having "small players" that can't shoot consistently from 3 is very inefficient, so the next step in the evolution is to increase the shooting efficiency. Having "small" players like Draymond, Livingston or even Iguodala is not efficient anymore in today's high pace game and again, only works because of having the 2 best shooters in the league and because of the inefficiency of the rest of the teams in the league.

- 1.3. System requirements: we do not want "traditional positions" anymore, that's obsolete, not only PF's and C's even if they can shoot and/or protect the rim, but also G that dribble too much and can't shoot consistenly. We want 5 "small", versatile and efficient shooters in the court for 48 min.

. We want DEPTH, 10 players, and so we don not want superstars or max players; paying 40mill. is inefficient and not needed, plus it creates dependency (watch Harden, Kawhi, Lebron or even Curry): if our best player gets injured it's not that big of a deal as his "numbers" can be more or less replaced. As mentioned, we don't look for individual numbers but for collective numbers. No player would play more than 30min/g as we want high intensity for 48min and a TEAM work.

. We want players that do not turn the ball over much as we're looking for efficiency.

. Again, we want 10 "small efficient shooters" so we need: 4 players that average at least 2 3PM (per 36min) with at least 36% and an overall minimum of 45% FG // 3 players that avg at least 1'5 3PM (per 36min) with at least 36% and a 45% FG // 3 players (maximum) that avg. at least 2 3PM (per 36min) with at least 36% and a 40-44% FG.

2. SPACE-TIME efficiency:

The use of the space&time in the NBA is so absurdly inefficient and there's a lot of room for improvement, so in our team not only we want to improve the shooting efficiency but as important it is to improve the efficiency of the "space" and the "time", both in OFF and DEF, here's how:

- 2.1. OFFENSE: (i suggest you take a pencil because we're going to draw a new court)

. STEP 1- "1st pass rule": when a team starts its offense with a "1st pass" to their PG from the baseline after the opponent has scored, it takes an average of 7sec. to cross the court and make the first decision. That is absurdly inefficient. Teams waste an average of at least 3 sec. without any reason. DRIBBLING is absolutely INEFFICIENT, we want to use the PASSING.

To do so, we're going to draw an imaginary line in the defensive side of the court at the furthest point of "our" 3 point line at 23'75 feet parallel to the baseline, that will be called the "3 sec. line" and another parallel line between the "3sec line" and the half-court line which will be the "4sec line", and we do the same in the other side of the court. Half-court line is the "5sec line", next line is the "6sec line" and the last one in the opponents 3 point line will be the "7sec line". If we've done it right we should have the court divided in 6 rectangles or "space-time" areas that we can name A-B-C-D-E-F.

The area between the "3sec line" and the "4sec line" is therefore the B "space-time slice" and the important one as in that area is where we want to receive the "1st pass" each and every time after we get scored. Why? because that's the amount of TIME it takes to cross that "B area" dribbling the ball, so if we make that "1st pass" directly there, we are "stealing" space and therefore time, in fact we're stealing 3sec of time which changes everything. At the end we’re doing like in football where teams try to steal yards or space, but we want to steal space in order to steal time. By doing so, we are increasing the Nº of possessions or PACE which is the sum of space and time, and that's possible only PASSING which is the "force" that makes possible interactions efficiently.

The average pace in the league is 100 and the average seconds per possession sits at 14'4. (48min x 60sec = 2880/2 teams = 1440/100 poss = 14'4 sec/poss), but for us considering we're stealing at least 3sec/poss we'll have possessions of only 11sec.

The avg. amount of times a team starts the offense from the baseline after the opponent scores is around 50 times (41 FGM+18FT which has to be divided by 2 = 41+9= 50).

So if we do some simple math we get that if we steal 3sec every time we make "our 1st pass", the result is 3x50= 150sec more that we gain and if we divide that by 11sec/poss it gives us around 13 more potential possessions!! Now it gets interesting because the avg. point/poss is 1'11 (111'2 avg pts/100 poss = 1'11 pts/poss), so if we do the math we get that by doing our "1st pass" we could score a potential of 13poss x 1'11pts = 14 more PTS!!

With such pace and efficiency we would rank 1st in PTS/G, 1st in "OFF RTG", 1st in PACE and 1st in "SRS" and that would makes us virtually unstoppable. In fact no team in history has ever had a 14 "differential points" margen.

.STEP 2- "1st good shot available"(GSA): considering we have very efficient shooters there's no reason to waste time looking for a "good shot", so rule 2 is to take the "1st GSA", whether is sec3 of possession or 23, so as soon as a player gets the ball shoots it if feels is a good shot for him, if not he looks for next open man.

.STEP 3. "Move, Run&Gun": the original Warriors were great not only because their shooting efficiency but because their better use of space-time, moving constantly without the ball and using the passing instead of dribbling, not needing a traditional PG.

We also want constant MOVEMENT and the use of passing, dribbling the ball no more than 2 times each players and only when absolutely needed, this way we keep stealing time.

Considering we have such efficient shooters and we're playing at such high pace, we're aiming for 20 triples/g. If you think about it, it is not that much as HOU scores 16 a game playing most time with a C (Capela, Nene) and at a very slow pace (97.9) while not having very efficient shooters (24th in FG%).

You have to understand that if we follow the plan and have "11sec poss", our PACE could be absolutely crazy: 1440sec/11sec= 130!! if you combine that type of pace with our shooting efficiency it would be absolutely devastating...

Now you might think: "ok but that could simply be solved by not letting do that 1st pass"... well not that simple; if they try to deny that pass, we can put 2 more players on the sides and do the same operation, and if they try to also deny that it means that they are doing a full court press, which is great because now we've absolutely STRETCHED the floor as never before and we have all the space in the world to attack their basket with "no contact" allowed on defense. The other team will have to decide what to do but both decisions would be good for us, especially considering we've "designed" a team with 10 small players ready to run&gun for 48 min.. will the other team be able to keep that kind of rhythm, efficiency and INTENSITY? i don't think so.

- 2.2. DEFENSE: our main goal will be again, to "steal" space from the other team and as consequence to steal time, that will be the priority. Here's how:

.STEP 1- The "Simmons defense": to every player on the opponent team that shoots less than 34% from 3 (no matter how many he makes) or less than 35% from 3 but hitting less than 1 triple, we will play on him the "simmons defense", that is we'll force him to choose between taking that shot or not, and if he doesn't we'll steal space being therefore more difficult for them to score because of the less space available, and we'll STEAL as consequence TIME making them have longer possessions. If he takes the shot, the probabilities of scoring will decrease drastically for the other team and we will be taking shots away from their best shooters.

Our goal is to steal space and time from the opponent in order to slow their PACE, so we steal possessions from them while forcing them shoot with the lowest PROBABILITIES. We want their worst shooters to take the shots or if not they have to pay us with TIME.

.STEP 2- "3sec line PRESS": we want to have the whole game a defender forcing the opponent team to receive inside their "3sec line" (to receive ball inside "A slice") to make sure it takes them 7-8sec to make their "1st decision" and 14-15sec to shoot. Again we do not want our defender to steal the ball just to steal space and time.

.STEP 3- DRIBBLING: we want the opponent to dribble the ball because that is inefficient as they waste time and therefore possessions, so we want to force ISO plays from their "stars" in order to force long possessions, kind of like HOU has done with KD the last 2 years in playoffs.

.STEP 4- "Def Rebounding": it is vital to get the defensive rebounds, if we play great defense but we lose the rebound then we've wasted our work. We need to rebound in order not only to keep low their pace but to increase ours by running. We want to run like "gazelles" using the passing not the dribbling, that's also why we want to play with 5 smalls.

3. HUMAN FACTOR:

. This is actually taken into account by the individual numbers of each player (stats, big data) but it is so important that i wanted to emphasize its value, because a TEAM is a "human system" and therefore do not perform like machines, so we might build a team with some specific "collective numbers" and then during playoffs these numbers could change drastically, as many players don't handle well pressure, but again that info is already available and should be taking into account when choosing players for the team.

* So that's it, i think that by following this "3 point plan" in order to improve the shooting efficiency and the space&time efficiency, the probabilities of winning should increase drastically and if we select the right players with the specific numbers we need and follow the plan, there's really not much than the rest of the teams could do because playing at a 120-130 pace with 5 "small efficient shooters" at a high intensity for 48min it's basically unstoppable and i believe that this is the perfect equation under the current rules to HACK this system.

Here is a very realistic "mold-team" made with no all-star (with this year's salaries) that could be gathered following the requirements and numbers needed in orden to get the perfect equation or "Holly Grail" searched. Most people will think that with these type of players it would be impossible to beat "super-teams" with "super-stars" but again, if you've understood well, it is not about stars or individual numbers but about a system and collective numbers:

1. M.BROGDON

2. J.TATUM

3. O.PORTER

4. TOBIAS HARRIS

5. JERAMI GRANT

6. D.COLLISON

7. MALIK BEASLEY

8. T.ROSS

9. TJ.WARREN

10. R.COVINGTON

System failure.......................................................................................................................


EndgameDame
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You have got to be kidding

You have got to be kidding with this. You put a team like that on the floor against any team with a decent post presence and they'll be living st the FT line because who would stop them from living in the paint and all the offensive rebounds that would be available?

faithnomuz
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This is why nerds fail at

This is why nerds fail at sports - calculator up their arse.

Stats don't pick up effort play, physicality of defense, impact someone's size has on opponent fg% , their potential rim protection based on threat of blocking a shot and a ton of other stuff. It also doesn't pick up that people have a particular rebound rate or fg% because of the presence of others on their team - they may rebound more or less depending on their teammates, and get more or less open looks from certain areas depending on who they are on the floor with.

Good effort - it's a goddam thesis, but it's time for your pill. That team is a pile of shit and would be in the lottery.

Gronounours
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'Again we do not want our

'Again we do not want our defender to steal the ball just to steal space and time.'

Yeah, that would be lame.

frogman
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Well that was confusing. So

Well that was confusing. So the aim is to steal some sort of time/space continuum??

Memphis Madness
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Tacko Fall is a top 5 pick

Tacko Fall is a top 5 pick then.

Nobody disrupts the space/time continuum like the Tacko Mamba.

Then you go with Jalen Lacque as the Anti-Gravity to go with Tacko's immense Gravity aka FALL.

Is Luka SAMANIC the Luka we have been waiting for?

Sekou and the Temple of Doumbouya might just be the Zion Williamson of basketball.

This isn't a draft -- it's a jail break.

Gronounours
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The most absurd part of it

The most absurd part of it all, in my opinion, is that you fail to realize that if you speed up the game to get more possessions, your opponent will have more possesions too.

Dazzling Dunks ...
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Anxiously awaiting part lll.

Anxiously awaiting part lll.

Chewy
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He needs

to steal more time and space before he can write part III.

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