[steviechillzParticipant]

All of us here have opinions on how guys will end up in the league…whether they come from high school, overseas, or college, some of us prove people wrong and say this guy will be this, and this guy can’t do that…and as a result, we can have some great predictions that end up working out, but we can also have some huge swings and misses. List out some of your awful swings and misses that you have mentioned here before.

One of my big one’s is Michael Beasley. When Beasley looked like a man amongst boys in college and averaged almost 13 RPG w/ Kansas State, I stated he looked like the next Melo. You can’t really blame me for falling in love with this guy’s game, he looked like an instant superstar. But with his immaturity off the court combined with poor basketball IQ, his talent just can’t keep up with his ineptitude. Now, Beasley is relegated to Summer League action and could probably be back on his way to China if Houston decides to go in a different direction

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 I thought Hasheem Thabeet would have at least been decent.  Had the size, shot blocking abilities, and he was pretty athletic for a 7’2 giant.

Did the Grizzlies botch things that badly or is Hasheem just a stiff?

Probably a little of both…

 

 

[ChewyParticipant]

 1. Guys with size move up the draft, and he had the size

2. His last college season he averaged a double double in the loaded Big East Era.

3. He wasn’t jacking up shots like Thon Maker, but he had very good form on his jumpshot.

4. Sure plently of great players went after him in the draft. But the most successful players taken after him were guards and wings, not bigs. None of those bigs have his potential.

 

 

 

[SeattleSuperChronicsParticipant]

 Beasley must have some mental health issues. 

[Ahkasi ClayParticipant]

 Weed?

[ChewyParticipant]

 Eddy Curry- thought he would be a dominate post scorer for 12 years. Instead, he got in the way of his own success. Maybe I’m not a quick learning because I still am a huge believer in Okafor.

Willie Warren- just never made it

Anthony Randolph- I’m part of the 85% plus Draft.net family that believed in him for years.

Petteri Koponen- Had a very solid summer league as like a 19 yr old PG, for Blazers I think. But was never brought over. Have no idea how much he developed.

Tyler Honeycutt- had the size and shooting to play like a poor man’s Klay. This was also at the time where it seemed like Howland’s UCLA guys always performed better at the NBA level than the NCAA level.

James Young- I like shooters. But he literally does nothing else at even an average NBA level.

Small PGs- like Justin Dentmon and Phil Pressey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[steviechillzParticipant]

I’m there with you on Willie Warren for sure! Also thought that James Young was a steal at #17.

[SeattleSuperChronicsParticipant]

 Adam Morrison

Jrue Holiday

Darious Miles

Anthony Bennet

 

[HobbyOGParticipant]

 Perry Jones..thought he would be a good and a steal dropping that low in the draft. 

That Clipper squad-D.Miles, Keyon Dooling, Q-Rich..etc. thought they would be a team that would be good for years to come. 

 

[ItsVictorOladipoParticipant]

Yeah I thought Michael Beasley had future HOFer written all over him. I was absolutely convinced that the Bulls would regret taking Rose over him.

I was also convinced that Calbert Cheaney was going to be a future star in the NBA, instead of a guy that would bounce around and never really make much of an impact. 

 

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 I was a huge fan of Acie Law coming out of Texas A&M. I loved his size for the PG position and propensity to hit big shots. I considered him the best PG available in the 2007 draft and thought he would at least be a solid starter in the league for at least a decade. Things didn’t quite turn out that way.

I never brought into the  "next Larry Bird" hype with Adam Morrison or anything but I at least thought he would be able to score efficiently. I thought at worst he could be a Wally Sczerbiak type player. I never imagined his career would go as poorly as it did.

 

[RUDEBOY_Participant]

tito horford came along during robinson,ewing and sampson’s era.i thought al horford’s dad would be next in line.. i was about 12 yrs old when he came out of college.so looking back at it now.i realize he didnt have the basketball iq or skills to be as great as the guys i mentioned.

i saw a couple of marc gasol’s high school gms in memphis.and never imagined that fat kid would become an all star.

 

[juves4783Participant]

dajuan wagner…thought he was the next iverson.

[sheltwon3Participant]

 It is sad that he went to the wrong team and then he had some serious health issues.  I think if he was healthy, this would be another story but I think he had some of his intestine removed.

[holefillers1Participant]

 Terrance Williams

 

 

[Roland209Participant]

I thought he was going to be out of the league after his rookie contract. I also thought that Grizzlies won the draft day trade for OJ Mayo.  

[Roland209Participant]

I thought he was going to be out of the league after his rookie contract. I also thought that Grizzlies won the draft day trade for OJ Mayo.  

[Andrew1984Participant]

1. Russell Westbrook: Based on his year at UCLA, I did not see him as a top 5 pick or an NBA superstar at all. I thought he’d be just another insane athlete without much polish.

2. MarShon Brooks: I was convinced he’d be what Jimmy Butler has become.

3. Shelvin Mack: I pegged him as the next Chauncey Billups. He played well in Utah last year, but is buried on the depth chart again.

4. Jimmer Fredette: I envisioned a Mark Price-like career for Jimmer, and that has not exactly come to fruition.

5. Austin Rivers: I definitely expected that he’d be much more accomplished by now.

[sweaterflexParticipant]

Derrick Williams and Beasley should have been studs, and I think if they were drafted to be stretch fours now their careers would look at different. Going back, I was wrong about Tyrus Thomas and Cedric Simmons (Simmons disappeared really quickly). I though Julian Wright would be a stud, and I think I’m close to admitting defeat on Jeremy Lamb.

[ChoppyParticipant]

 I honestly thought that Daye, a 6-11 sf that was a good shooter would be something of a Durant lite. Thing is, in the pros, he wasn’t that good of a shooter. Even time in San Antonio’s system wasnt enough to save him. Was disappointed to see him go out so meekly.

[TheTruth86Participant]

 Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore – two players I was really hign on but they disapointed (bmac is not that awful as bennet ofc).

 Massive overachiever – Deandre Jordan , still dont like him but cant denay the obvious – he is a defensive force.

 

[The GoatParticipant]

 I thought Greg Oden over Durant was the right move, but I have to say I thought Durant would be this good. Oden looked 30 physically, I thought he could be a new age Bill Russell. 

[The GoatParticipant]

 I thought Greg Oden over Durant was the right move, but I have to say I thought Durant would be this good. Oden looked 30 physically, I thought he could be a new age Bill Russell. 

[Skeating12345Participant]

 I thought he would be a borderline All-Star by the end of his third year and become a Jason Richardson type player in terms of play style and impact. Definitely needs a change of scenery.

Terrence Williams – Thought he would be an absolute stud of a combo-guard with his size, athleticism, and playmaking ability. 

Al Thornton – Showed a lot of promise in his first couple years and then sort of just flamed out and stopped improving and was out of the league within a year or two. Loved his physical tools and had a solid offensive foundation but really failed to build on it. 

 

 

 

[TRC1991Participant]

Nolan Smith – I swore he’d be a 15 year backup on championship teams with his ability to score, guard both positions and super high bball IQ…

James Young – loved his smooth game at UK, surprised he hasn’t done anything

Damion James – Loved his rough and tough game at UT, I thought he’d be a great combo forward off the bench for 11 years

Cory Joseph – thought he’d be out of the league by now

Tyler Smith – Tennessee alum had the size and skillset to be a NBA starter, not sure what happened to him

Jeffery Taylor – thought he’d be a longtime NBA 3 & D small forward with his elite athleticism 

Dion Waiters – I swore I saw mini James Harden in him…

[sheltwon3Participant]

 Jeffery Taylor got blacklisted because of an domestic abuse claim.  I was not like dude stopped being able to play just no team would sign him.

Dion Waiters has tons of issues but would be better on another team.  He would do well to go to a bad team like Philly.

 

[Hype Machine]

 Ricky Rubio

Thought he was going to be Pistol Pete and the best PG in the league when he was a child prodigy.

 

 

 

 

[Captain LParticipant]

 Perry Jones, very skilled, 6’11" , soft , not motivated, disappointing.

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 A guy I definitely didn’t see coming was kawhi Leonard. I thought he would be a guy who would hang around the league as a defensive specialist but would always be somewhat of an offensive liability and never more than a role player . I never imagined his all-around game would blossom the way it has.

[cargathusParticipant]

I thought Darko Milicic after he got traded to Orlando was going to play real well next to Dwight for years. Except I thought wrong and he never really got playing time again.

[David..PaulsParticipant]

 Oden- I thought he was going to be a player similar to Duncan… not playing ability. but a big who was just going to win by defense. 

[shug94Participant]

Rudy Fernandez – I thought he was going to be one of the best wings in the NBA for a decade, instead he just became one dimensional, lost confidence and went back to Europe. I still have my Fernandez jersey (and I am not Spanish or from Portland).

Joe Alexander – I thought he would be an amazing run/jump athlete, kind of like a poor man’s Vince Carter. Obviously the Bucks thought this too…

Paul George – As a Pacers fan I was disappointed when they selected him. I thought his small school pedigree and college stats were not worthy of the number 10 pick. I wanted Xavier Henry. Turns out I would have been fired pretty quick as the Pacers GM.

Kareem Rush – I saw his game in college as Reggie Miller with better defense. But he did not pan out.

(I have been right a few times too, but it is fun to think back on the mistakes).

[mowestenParticipant]

Ricky Rubio — I can’t remember the year, but he looked amazing against Team USA in the Olympics as a really young kid. But injuries I think kinda stunted his development. He lacks quickness, the ability to finish in traffic and still can’t shoot. I wonder if he has reached his ceiling as a player. He’s decent, and could still be a key component to a winning team because he’s a smart and unselfish player, but I doubt he ever becomes a star. 

Yi JianLian — Probably the workout against the chair should have been a red flag, and when reports surfaced that he was significantly older than previously thought should have been another. Another guy that looked good in the Olympics but just wasn’t tough enough and couldn’t consistently knock down perimeter shots at a high enough rate to be a stretch 4. 

There are probably others but those two really stand out off the top of my head. I think the one thing that is really hard to gauge from a 30,000 feet fan viewpoint is how much do these guys love basketball. Most have the size, frame, speed, athleticism, etc., but very few are finished products anymore at their draft age. They have to put in the work to get better. You have to wonder how many guy who don’t reach their potential just got outworked. That would be something I would be interested in getting a perspective on from a player.

 

 

[wonzi_bellsParticipant]

 Last year…. Porzingis

[kobyzParticipant]

 Evan Turner – thought he would have been next superstar SG and Kobe level player, but he never able to get his confident level right, it seems that somthing mentally his holding him…

[Ahkasi ClayParticipant]

 Oden  I bought many of his first BBall card, (the one with Chartacter)

Yi JianLian  he actually is a good player, but never was able to adapt to the culture.

Shawn Bradly.  He moved so well for being 7’6" nobody was doing what he was at the center position back then.

Ricky Berry, I desperatly wanted my Jazz to get him.

Derrick Chievous,   nbot sure why I was so High on him, (probably that face he made every time he shot a free throw)

Saer Sene  thought he was going to be the next Micheal Cage, but Bigger.

 

 

 

[Robb_CParticipant]

 The Kid from Iowa St, whos scared to ride on airplanes…

[CynthiaParticipant]

As a Thunder fan I’m ashamed to admit that in the 2008 draft when we needed a PG so bad I wasn’t high at all on Westbrook. In fact I wanted Bayless, or at the very least Augustin over Westbrook…Man was I wrong. Both Bayless & Augustin have been solid backup PG’s their whole career but they’re a few tiers below Westbrook, and that’s being generous.

[TarHeelRavenParticipant]

 Joel Alexander.  Freakish athlete out of West Virginia.  Drafted 8th by the Bucks.  Now I have no idea where the heck he is playing…

[TheTruth86Participant]

 Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Euroleague, not that bad but I think he’d be somekind of a role player not a star.

[chall23Participant]

 Thomas Robinson, after him I tend to put less stock in built guys when they’re in college. He was a man playing against kids and I really thought it would translate into and automatic double double machine at the next level. 

Derrick Williams is a guy I would’ve felt comfortable betting my money on becoming and all-star player. Elite athleticism pretty solid jumper in college. The thing about him is he played with a much higher bball IQ in college and it seemed to disappear in the NBA.

Jan Vesely: I have a soft spot for Jan because I never really thought he was given his fair shot as a rookie. I thought this was an amazing pick for the Wiz at the time, a 7 footer who could run and jump next to John Wall? Sign me up. He lost his confidence pretty fast and while he did show glimpses at times of being that athletic freak and disruptive defender he obviously didn’t amount to what I thought.

 

 

[McDunkin]

Rubio – I first heard of him back when he was a 14 year old putting up quadruple doubles and hitting game winners against kids 2-3 years older than himself. That was the last time I’ve ever seen his name connected with being aggressive on offense.

Jan Vesely – he’s found his stride currently as a rich mans Birdman but back when he was a prospect he was thought of as a versatile defender who’s athleticism would let him guard sf-c. I can’t lie I think me and a few others put too much stock in him locking down Josh Childress on the Final 4.

Shabazz Muhammad – his skills as a scorer pretty much stagnated after his junior year of high school.

Chen Jianghua – I first discovered this site when I found his profile comparing him to A.I. I completely blame Aran.

Cynthia – I honestly thought we would be married by now.

James White – He should have blessed us with multiple dunk contest performances

[ncballer]

 I thought that McCants would have turned around his character and be a top 10 SG in the league at some point.  Sadly, it never happened.  The dude was uber talented at UNC, was a fantastic offensive player.  When you get let go after averaging 15 ppg as a young guy it is apparent it is likely because he is a headcase and such it was with McCants.  Sad.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

Eric Montross – Was a big time high school player here in Indianapolis. Went to North Carolina… Had great career. Thought he’d be a very good NBA player. 

Sean Respert – Was a big fan of him at Michigan State. Thought he be a great NBA player. 

Keith Van Horn – Loved him at Utah. Had a solid career, but I just thought he’d be a star.

Ron Mercer – Thought he’d have a great NBA career. Put together some solid seasons, but he just wasn’t as good as I thought he’d be.

William Avery – Loved him at Duke. Thought he’d be a good NBA player. Was out of the league in like 2-3 years.

DaMarr Johnson – 6’9" shooting guard. Thought he was gonna be a stud coming out of Cincinnati. 

Omeka Okafor – Thought he should’ve gone #1 over Dwight Howard

Gerald Green – I was pissed Bird picked Danny Granger one pick before Green. 

Mike Conley – Always thought he was overrated and was only hyped up because of playing all of high school/AAU with Greg Oden.

Jerryd Bayless – Thought he’d be a legit star. Was damn in tears when Bird drafted and traded him to POR for Brandon Rush 

Evan Turner – Thought he should’ve been #1 pick over John Wall.

Trey Burke – Thought he was next CP3. 

[rtbtParticipant]

This is a fascinating topic. From my perspective, the big lesson is it takes a lot more than talent to make it in the NBA. It requires:

• Mental discipline and toughness
• The right work ethic and attitude
• Being on the right team at the right time. We’ve all seen very talented players who were drafted by the wrong team for their style of play and/or they had a coach who didn’t instill confidence in that player. We should never underestimate the significance of one’s teammates, the opportunity to play on a regular basis, and/or the relationship with the head coach.
• Health: Knee injuries are very common in basketball. Even though a player allegedly recovered from knee surgery, he may never again be the same player he was before the injury. He may look healthy, but he may have lost a step in a highly competitive league.
• Finally, culture. Players who come from foreign countries usually have to learn a new language, new customs, and a different style of basketball in the NBA. Those are major challenges. Don’t underestimate the impact of leaving their family/friends (support network) on another continent.

 

[steviechillzParticipant]

Timing is everything in life…on and off the court. There are probably about 100-120 players right now who aren’t in the NBA, who should be, but they either fell to the wrong team, decided to settle on a European offer, got injured at the wrong time, etc.

[Author]

Posts