[JoeWolf1]

First impressions can be hard to shake, especially when hype is involved. We all saw highly touted and the 2013 high school class’ second fiddle, Jabari Parker burst on to the scene dropping 20 points a night and showing a mature ability to create shots for himself, while the hype machine that was Andrew Wiggins 6 months ago blended in, played D, and maybe didn’t perform to the level that his hype had created.

A lot has changed since then, but I feel a lot of those same notions around both players, especially Wiggins, at the beginning of the season are still lingering despite both players’ evolution. Now, I enjoy numbers, you can tell a lot by them, but I’m also aware they’re not everything. Derrick Rose averaged 10 points per game less than Michael Beasley, Andre Drummond was a more prolific rebounder in the NBA than he was in college, we all know the examples, but I just wanted to take a closer look as to how both players have produced over a, now, 30+ game span.

First impression: Andrew Wiggins can’t shoot. All of his points are layups while Jabari is a great outside shooter.

Now, Parker has a more mature offensive game. I’m not disputing this, but it doesn’t take long to realize that Wiggins is a pretty solid outside shooter, and over the past three months, significantly better than Parker.

Over the course of the season Parker has shot 37% on 3.1 attempts per game and Wiggins has shot 35% on 3.7 attempts per game, pretty close, really, and when you look closer at the last two and a half months during the conference season it takes a turn few casual observors would expect.

Each player has played 18 conference games and while Jabari Parker shot 30% on 2.9 attempts per game, Wiggins has shot 37% on 3.8 attempts per game. There is no doubt Parker came out of the gate firing, but over the course Wiggins has proved to be a similar caliber 3 point shooter over the course of the season, and a much better 3 point shooter during the past two and a half months.

First Impression: Jabari Parker is a poor defender

No, that’s Julius Randle, but that’s a topic for another post. Parker is actually a pretty solid college defender. He’s strong, fundamentally sound although he doesn’t possess the athletic ability that is associated with premiere NBA defenders, his college level defense has not indicated a hapless pro defender, just one that doesn’t project as an elite level defender like many of his peers. 

Jabari Parker has averaged 1.4 blocks per game and 1 steal per game over the course of the season and his production in the defensive stat column has remained rock solid in the conference season when he hasn’t had the luxury of a stat padding game against Elon or East Carolina. 

I myself question how he will translate to the next level, as a defender, but I think what he’s shown in college at least shows he can be servicable if he puts in some work. You can’t throw a guy who blocks the ball and steals the ball more than one time a game completely under the bus when it comes to defense. 

First Impression: When compared to Wiggins, Jabari Parker is more consistant on offense, while also having a superior ability to break free for big games.

You watch the two in Novemeber, or read a scouting report and you’d think so, but when you take a closer look, again, they’re pretty even in this category.

25 + point games

Andrew Wiggins – 5 games, @Florida ( 26 ) @TCU (27) Iowa State (29) @WVU (41) OSU (30)

Jabari Parker – 5 games, Kansas (27) Vermont (26) Alabama (27) @Boston College (29) North Carolina (30)

An interesting note here is that 3 of Wiggins 25+ point games were on the road and 1 was at a neutral location. Only one big game came at home.

10 or less point games

Andrew Wiggins – 5 games

Jabari Parker – 2 games 

Jabari Parker has indeed shown to be more consistant scoring 10 or more points this season, both players, when held in single digits sported low shooting percentages. Kansas was 4-1 in those 5 games, and Duke was 1-1.

A closer statistical breakdown of these two high level prospects is something I’ve wanted to do for a while. Numbers aren’t everything, but they are a part of the equation ( pun intended ). There hasn’t been a draft in my memory where I can honestly say that a team in the top 3 would probably be well off with any of the top 3 prospects, but I felt with the hype and knee jerk first impressions, especially with these two guys, that a little deeper look was worth taking.

 

 

 

 

 

[max23Participant]

 Great breakdown!Do you think they are equal as prospects now,that a team would flip a coin basically if had second pick and Embiid off the board?My impression today  is that Parker is stronger,finishes better inside( although Wiggins isnt as bad as advertised,hes getting better at that),a bit better ball handler and thats about it…Not taking anything away from Parker who also seems like a great prospect.

[max23Participant]

 Great breakdown!Do you think they are equal as prospects now,that a team would flip a coin basically if had second pick and Embiid off the board?My impression today  is that Parker is stronger,finishes better inside( although Wiggins isnt as bad as advertised,hes getting better at that),a bit better ball handler and thats about it…Not taking anything away from Parker who also seems like a great prospect.

[JoeWolf1]

 There’s a lot to like about both players. I pick Wiggins personally, because I feel Wiggins has more versitility. I think in the pros he’ll be able to play the 2 and 3 on offense and defense. Parker, I don’t think has the two way dual position appeal at the 3/4. That’s my opinion, though, if Parker went ahead of Wiggins, I wouldn’t flip out or anything. 

[JoeWolf1]

 There’s a lot to like about both players. I pick Wiggins personally, because I feel Wiggins has more versitility. I think in the pros he’ll be able to play the 2 and 3 on offense and defense. Parker, I don’t think has the two way dual position appeal at the 3/4. That’s my opinion, though, if Parker went ahead of Wiggins, I wouldn’t flip out or anything. 

[Toronto16Participant]

 Very good objective read.

[Toronto16Participant]

 Very good objective read.

[BiggaveliiiParticipant]

 Jabari Parker and Wiggins both going to be superstars. Wiggins offense is going to be scary good in a couple of years, Jabari parker likewise. i wouldnt be surprised but im going to call it i think the celtics and the lakers are going to get wiggins and parker.

[BiggaveliiiParticipant]

 Jabari Parker and Wiggins both going to be superstars. Wiggins offense is going to be scary good in a couple of years, Jabari parker likewise. i wouldnt be surprised but im going to call it i think the celtics and the lakers are going to get wiggins and parker.

[The8thDeadlySinParticipant]

 I have been down on Wiggins all year and i still dont think he will be the stud everyone projects him to be (he is no Lebron or Kobe) but the guy is an NBA player.  I think he settles a lot.  However, regardless of what anyone says, i think he is protecting himself a little at the college level.  Holding back a bit to make sure he doesn’t get hurt.  Kid deserves to be the top pick but so does Jabari.  

Bottom line here, Jabari and Wiggins are both easy picks.  If you are a top pick, your only question should be, "How do i like my scoring?"  

Jabari – Inside/Out

Wiggins – Outside/In

[The8thDeadlySinParticipant]

 I have been down on Wiggins all year and i still dont think he will be the stud everyone projects him to be (he is no Lebron or Kobe) but the guy is an NBA player.  I think he settles a lot.  However, regardless of what anyone says, i think he is protecting himself a little at the college level.  Holding back a bit to make sure he doesn’t get hurt.  Kid deserves to be the top pick but so does Jabari.  

Bottom line here, Jabari and Wiggins are both easy picks.  If you are a top pick, your only question should be, "How do i like my scoring?"  

Jabari – Inside/Out

Wiggins – Outside/In

[HaleParticipant]

While I agree with most of what you said, you contradicted yourself here. You wanted to disprove first impressions but also used one when bringing up Julius Randle. He’s improved as a defender this year dramatically. If you want to bring up how he’ll likely struggle at the next level that’s fine, but he’s been every bit the defender Parker has been this year despite the first impression on him.

 

[HaleParticipant]

While I agree with most of what you said, you contradicted yourself here. You wanted to disprove first impressions but also used one when bringing up Julius Randle. He’s improved as a defender this year dramatically. If you want to bring up how he’ll likely struggle at the next level that’s fine, but he’s been every bit the defender Parker has been this year despite the first impression on him.

 

[JoeWolf1]

 I disagree, from a stat based breakdown, Jabari Parker has nearly blocked twice as many shots and has stolen the ball nearly twice as many times. Julius has improved, but in my opinion and not only based on stats, but also the fact that Randle gets caught out of position more, I think Parker is a better defensive player.

Maybe I should have left him out of this post, but its not like I didn’t do any research when I included him.

[JoeWolf1]

 I disagree, from a stat based breakdown, Jabari Parker has nearly blocked twice as many shots and has stolen the ball nearly twice as many times. Julius has improved, but in my opinion and not only based on stats, but also the fact that Randle gets caught out of position more, I think Parker is a better defensive player.

Maybe I should have left him out of this post, but its not like I didn’t do any research when I included him.

[HaleParticipant]

I’m not talking about stats. I’m talking about just watching him play. Jabari averages more blocks per game than Patric Young too, who’s a better defender? Ever since we ripped both guys for their awful performances earlier in the year they have both been considerably better. Randle’s effort has gone up big time and sure he’ll still get caught out of position but I never said he was a stud on that end. Plus it’s more magnified when he makes mistakes because it seems like everyone on UK is a complete knucklehead and even when he does something well someone else typically screws up.

[HaleParticipant]

I’m not talking about stats. I’m talking about just watching him play. Jabari averages more blocks per game than Patric Young too, who’s a better defender? Ever since we ripped both guys for their awful performances earlier in the year they have both been considerably better. Randle’s effort has gone up big time and sure he’ll still get caught out of position but I never said he was a stud on that end. Plus it’s more magnified when he makes mistakes because it seems like everyone on UK is a complete knucklehead and even when he does something well someone else typically screws up.

[JoeWolf1]

Maybe the Florida game is too fresh in my mind, and perhaps I’m underselling him, but I can assure you my opinion is researched and not based on a first impression formed 6 months ago.

[JoeWolf1]

Maybe the Florida game is too fresh in my mind, and perhaps I’m underselling him, but I can assure you my opinion is researched and not based on a first impression formed 6 months ago.

[max23Participant]

As a basketball fan,hoping Parker does come out.This would be a great rivalry for next 10-15 years

[max23Participant]

As a basketball fan,hoping Parker does come out.This would be a great rivalry for next 10-15 years

[Lotto StudParticipant]

I hope it won’t be as hyped up as LeBron vs Melo because I don’t even see that as a rivalry anymore.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

I hope it won’t be as hyped up as LeBron vs Melo because I don’t even see that as a rivalry anymore.

[PhillytheKid]

Parker plays in a system where he’s not playing with Embiid or WCS.  He has to do more defending in the pain which I think saps more energy.  Duke’s system is also kind of frustrating.  Jabari is not the go-to guy in that offense the way Kansas at times will defer to Wiggins.  Jabari should touch the ball much more.  For all the talk of Jabari looking pudgy early on in the season, he’s an enigma in that he looks out of shape but he can ball.  About the 3s, Jabari’s 3s are rushed at times, and I think its because he gets few opportunities.  The eye test is clearly in favor of Jabari’s shot.  It has the beautiful rotation, he has better balance with his feet.  Its not even close.

I give him a ton of credit for starting all 4 years at Simeon, something that has never been done before.  

 

The thing about Wiggins though is that he scores so easily.  I watched a Cavs vs Philly game live and I was amazed at how easily Lebron scored 36 points….it was all in the flow of the game. effortless.  I think Wiggins also scores effortlessly.  There is too much potential there athletically.  I think with spacing he is going to score very easily in the NBA.  The guy is literally 2 steps from the three point line to the rim.  The game is going to come easy to him.

 

That and the first impression of how he was asking to guard Parker.  He also took the Marcus Smart challenge and dropped 30 against them.  He also had the crowd taunt him for shooting an airball and J’d it in their face.  Wiggins rises to the occasion, you can’t teach that.  He knows how much potential he has.  When he finally did guard Parker, Parker was visibly affected.  I think both Parker and Randle know the hype surrounding Wiggins and mentally, they let it get to them.  I think that mental aspect is huge, Parker may be too nice a guy.  Parker is a bull no doubt, a smiling killer, but Wiggins doesn’t smile, he just kills. 

[PhillytheKid]

Parker plays in a system where he’s not playing with Embiid or WCS.  He has to do more defending in the pain which I think saps more energy.  Duke’s system is also kind of frustrating.  Jabari is not the go-to guy in that offense the way Kansas at times will defer to Wiggins.  Jabari should touch the ball much more.  For all the talk of Jabari looking pudgy early on in the season, he’s an enigma in that he looks out of shape but he can ball.  About the 3s, Jabari’s 3s are rushed at times, and I think its because he gets few opportunities.  The eye test is clearly in favor of Jabari’s shot.  It has the beautiful rotation, he has better balance with his feet.  Its not even close.

I give him a ton of credit for starting all 4 years at Simeon, something that has never been done before.  

 

The thing about Wiggins though is that he scores so easily.  I watched a Cavs vs Philly game live and I was amazed at how easily Lebron scored 36 points….it was all in the flow of the game. effortless.  I think Wiggins also scores effortlessly.  There is too much potential there athletically.  I think with spacing he is going to score very easily in the NBA.  The guy is literally 2 steps from the three point line to the rim.  The game is going to come easy to him.

 

That and the first impression of how he was asking to guard Parker.  He also took the Marcus Smart challenge and dropped 30 against them.  He also had the crowd taunt him for shooting an airball and J’d it in their face.  Wiggins rises to the occasion, you can’t teach that.  He knows how much potential he has.  When he finally did guard Parker, Parker was visibly affected.  I think both Parker and Randle know the hype surrounding Wiggins and mentally, they let it get to them.  I think that mental aspect is huge, Parker may be too nice a guy.  Parker is a bull no doubt, a smiling killer, but Wiggins doesn’t smile, he just kills. 

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